WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

[impatientredhead]

Did we ever get it straightened out what their body core temperature would be from sleeping in the van at 32 degrees and what would have happened if they got out into water that was 45 degrees. I know the 40 degree chart i read said body temp drops so fast they could have been unconsious in about a half an hour.

30 minutes is under ideal conditions btw...

Individual Differences:swimming ability, body size and build, cold tolerance, shivering response, body fat, alcohol levels

Both of the men I work with are expert rescue divers and they both said when asked independently that someone who is not experienced and prepared to be in cold water, fighting panic and shock, they both said that you are talking single digit number of minutes before they would drown.

It is physically possible to be in water that cold for 30 minutes and live, but not if your are trashing around and in a panic. Then add in smaller body size, lower body fat, drinking, etc... and they all decrease the survival time.

 

[eyes4crime]

Alcohol consumption increases the odds of developing hypothermia

Alcohol consumption can speed the onset and progression of hypothermia. Alcohol impairs motor skills, magnifies the torso reflex, and affects clear thinking. As the alcohol level in a person's body increases, coordination abilities decrease. At high doses, alcohol damages thermoregulation, which lowers the body's resistance to cold water.

http://www.seagrant.umn.edu/coastal_communities/hypothermia#alcohol

 

[Beyond Belief]

Thanks for the answers;

Now do we have any answers to whether the van would have started leaking in water when the water rose above the bottom of the van doors.

 

[impatientredhead]

Thanks for the answers;

Now do we have any answers to whether the van would have started leaking in water when the water rose above the bottom of the van doors.

I can't imagine how it wouldn't. To be water tight it would be air tight and you would suffocate with the windows shut? And if it sealed in that way wouldn't eventually float?

I spilled pepsi in my car and it seeped between the door and out. moo

 

[Nancee Drue]

I wonder if S. is alive, somewhere.

 

[Malini2001]

I came across a couple posts on the #1 Thread where she had two phone calls at around 4:15 with RS. On the video posted a couple pages back he says HE left out ahead of her. I didn't realize this and seems odd in itself. He starts with the 6:45 conversations and he is already in Castle Rock. The 4:15 conversations was him asking her to bring his phone charger. So her leaving the cell phone does not seem an accidental oversight.

Everything points to her not wanting him to come on the trip and him coming down there anyway. Presumably in her car and she in his van. Why would he leave out ahead of her to arrive at a step parent he had not met and she had not seen so we hear in 4 years. I think he knew she was leaving him. Not that he had anything to do with her disappearance. Just that she may have been seeing and planning this with someone else.
And RS was kind of forcing her hand. The MS page last showed messages back in Nov. So I would speculate she met someone or started seeing them again about 4 months ago.

RS was driving his motorcycle. Smiley may not even have an auto of her own, it hasn't been mentioned.

 

[SMK]

I wonder if S. is alive, somewhere.

The more time goes on without her body surfacing, the more that question comes to the fore. Do not know , though, why no scent of her could be found leading away from the beach. If little Azriel's body had not surfaced, most likely all would think both might have somehow fled the area....

 

[SMK]

I came across a couple posts on the #1 Thread where she had two phone calls at around 4:15 with RS. On the video posted a couple pages back he says HE left out ahead of her. I didn't realize this and seems odd in itself. He starts with the 6:45 conversations and he is already in Castle Rock. The 4:15 conversations was him asking her to bring his phone charger. So her leaving the cell phone does not seem an accidental oversight.

Everything points to her not wanting him to come on the trip and him coming down there anyway. Presumably in her car and she in his van. Why would he leave out ahead of her to arrive at a step parent he had not met and she had not seen so we hear in 4 years. I think he knew she was leaving him. Not that he had anything to do with her disappearance. Just that she may have been seeing and planning this with someone else.
And RS was kind of forcing her hand. The MS page last showed messages back in Nov. So I would speculate she met someone or started seeing them again about 4 months ago.

Yes, this has the ring of truth to it, once it is laid out like you have worded it. But, to me, it would make more sense if the boy had not been found, and if the 2 had run off. Or do you think the tide, their drowning, was all an accident, and she did intend them BOTH to run off?

 

[Beyond Belief]

Dodge caravan starting with 2001

Other innovative available features included remote operated sliding doors and rear hatch, which could be opened and closed as the push of a button, either inside the vehicle, or with the keyless entry fob.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodge_Caravan

 

[Miss Optimism]

If she does end up being still alive and is found, what do you guys think the chance of her being found guilty of murder are? I don't know all of the different degrees- second degree, negligent homicide?

 

[jessigirl]

[

I wonder if S. is alive, somewhere./QUOTE]

I just don't see how this could be possible? I know that it is on most of our minds that possibly she is hiding somewhere, ran off with someone, etc. LE would have found a link of some sort to SS and someone, anyone helping her. If it was somehow planned then by searching thru her phone and computer records they would be able to find some sort of link. Or if she made other calls from payphones that we don't even know about, I would think LE would have looked at the records of the few payphones that she crossed paths with that night. And then on the other hand if she didn't have "help" she would've inadvertently crossed paths with other people(as she walked from beach to ANY other destination&I believe she would've HAD to eventually receive some sort of help or assistance from even strangers for directions, a ride, use of a phone,etc) And as wide spread and public as this case is I believe that anyone who had assisted her in any way or even seen someone remotely fitting her description on a road or in a store, or bus stop. Any individual would have come forward with a sighting or contact. All of those(as far as we know) have NOT happened. So that combined with more than one trained dog picking up no scent that even left the beach or van area, I would say almost positively that she is NOT alive, never left the beach that night, and for whatever reason(that we may never know)that she ended up,as did AZ in the water and quickly died. MOO

 

[SMK]

[

I wonder if S. is alive, somewhere./QUOTE]

I just don't see how this could be possible? I know that it is on most of our minds that possibly she is hiding somewhere, ran off with someone, etc. LE would have found a link of some sort to SS and someone, anyone helping her. If it was somehow planned then by searching thru her phone and computer records they would be able to find some sort of link. Or if she made other calls from payphones that we don't even know about, I would think LE would have looked at the records of the few payphones that she crossed paths with that night. And then on the other hand if she didn't have "help" she would've inadvertently crossed paths with other people(as she walked from beach to ANY other destination&I believe she would've HAD to eventually receive some sort of help or assistance from even strangers for directions, a ride, use of a phone,etc) And as wide spread and public as this case is I believe that anyone who had assisted her in any way or even seen someone remotely fitting her description on a road or in a store, or bus stop. Any individual would have come forward with a sighting or contact. All of those(as far as we know) have NOT happened. So that combined with more than one trained dog picking up no scent that even left the beach or van area, I would say almost positively that she is NOT alive, never left the beach that night, and for whatever reason(that we may never know)that she ended up,as did AZ in the water and quickly died. MOO

True, and I find it hard to believe that - as careless or negligent as she might have been in ways - she would ever have wanted the child dead. As to if she WERE by some bizarre 1 % chance alive, I think she would be harshly judged.

 

[PaulR]

Did she meet with the EX during this period or another friend ???

The Ex also lives in Castle Rock. So if she met with the Ex, she'd have to had driven down to Castle Rock, then back to Olympia.

With the timeframe we have, she wouldn't have had time to make that trip.

 

[SMK]

If she does end up being still alive and is found, what do you guys think the chance of her being found guilty of murder are? I don't know all of the different degrees- second degree, negligent homicide?

Yes, if she were - and it is a small if - found alive, I think she would be harshly condemned by the public ( the child was so cute and innocent in all this ) and charged with some felony such as negligent homicide, etc.

 

[RubyRed]

If she was drinking, and we don't know that for a fact, until she is found and toxicology is done. Then to me it is not an accident, it is negligence on her part, causing his death.
It is not unusual for drowning victims to surface days, weeks or even months apart. A lot of variables depend on when they surface. I believe she is in the water, and if it were me, that caused this to happen to my son . That is darn well where I would want to be. moo

 

[SMK]

If she was drinking, and we don't know that for a fact, until she is found and toxicology is done. Then to me it is not an accident, it is negligence on her part, causing his death. . . I believe she is in the water, and if it were me, that caused this to happen to my son . That is darn well where I would want to be. moo

Well said.

 

[Miss Optimism]

If she was drinking, and we don't know that for a fact, until she is found and toxicology is done. Then to me it is not an accident, it is negligence on her part, causing his death.
It is not unusual for drowning victims to surface days, weeks or even months apart. A lot of variables depend on when they surface. I believe she is in the water, and if it were me, that caused this to happen to my son . That is darn well where I would want to be. moo

Thanks for that info on drowning victims. Haven't divers and helicopters been searching the water as well?

 

[SMK]

Thanks for that info on drowning victims. Haven't divers and helicopters been searching the water as well?

From what I have read, they used a plane - not a chopper - and some boats. I cannot help feeling though, that the discovery of the child's body, along with reports of Child Protective Service calls and info about her DUI, seemed to have made them less urgent about finding her. Is it me, or is it actually the case? Let's say the child had not yet surfaced, PLUS no reports about CPS or DUI---I feel there would be a far more urgent search, dragging the water, etc. Just seems that way to me.

 

[90Nine]

Well, the core body temperature drops during sleep, and
Cold water removes heat from the body 25 times faster than cold air. About 50% of that heat loss occurs through the head. Physical activity such as swimming, or other struggling in the water increases heat loss. Survival time can be reduced to minutes. Strong swimmers have died before swimming 100 yards in cold water. In water under 40 degrees F, victims have died before swimming 100 feet.http://www.enter.net/~skimmer/coldwater.html I think it can be safely said, along with what Mealy said about the "ferocious current", that they could have gotten into trouble very quickly, especially if the tide rose and caught them unaware, in their sleep.

The question I keep asking myself is why she didn't have the keys in the ignition. If it was so cold outside then how did they sleep in the van without the heat on. I just can't imagine that she would not have the heat on in the car for the entire time (hours) it took the tide to rise enough and to be deep enough to sweep them out into the waters. But her size (height and weight) IMO would have been able to withstand the water.

If they made it to the beach by 11pm and the tide was at about 1.7 ft. having risen to 14 feet by 6am, leaving it to rise 12 more feet - I wish we had some way to figure out how deep the water went as the tide was rising (ie - 1am the water was 2 feet deep at the van, etc). It really seems like the water would have had to be a few feet deep to take Az. But the tide would have had to have been quite high for him to have gotten taken by the currents.

 

[Alaska4959]

Still thinking about the tire tracks...if the van was parked at the water before high tide and the tide came in enough to cover the van or even just rose to the top of the seats, and then the tide went out again, wouldn't most/all of the tire tracks Shantina left be washed away by the water? If that is the case, would any of the tracks in the photographs be left over from Saturday night?