WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

[sorrell skye]

I believe this is entirely possible. But I am struggling with the fact that she found that driveway and roadway to the beach in the first place. I believe it could have been by chance but something tells me it wasn't. Surely if she wanted to get to the beach there were easier ways and easier to SEE ways.

Yes, I agree - there were any number of places to turn around prior to taking that private road to the beach.

It's been stated over & over again how hard it is to see that gravel drive to the beach even in daylight, let alone at night. The media stated it, LE stated it, and several of us here have stated it - how did she manage to find that remote driveway at night? I' struggling with it, myself.

If she was looking for a place to sleep, there are rest stops on I-5 she could have stopped. Or even an out of the way residential street in Olympia, if she was afraid of LE coming along & nailing her for intoxication.

 

[redsky]

Yes, I agree - there were any number of places to turn around prior to taking that private road to the beach.

It's been stated over & over again how hard it is to see that gravel drive to the beach even in daylight, let alone at night. The media stated it, LE stated it, and several of us here have stated it - how did she manage to find that remote driveway at night? I' struggling with it, myself.

If she was looking for a place to sleep, there are rest stops on I-5 she could have stopped. Or even an out of the way residential street in Olympia, if she was afraid of LE coming along & nailing her for intoxication.

So we have to assume she knew that driveway/road before hand.
Why did she know it? And what were her intentions for taking the road?

Maybe she had visited the spot before - as for her intentions. I believe she was likely drunk and wanted to get as far away from where cops would be as possible and this was a good location to do that.

Not sure I buy into a suicide theory. Or a disappearing theory. I think they will find her body in the water.

 

[Beyond Belief]

This is interesting: About flooding.
For each foot water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs of water. In effect the car weighs 1500 lbs less with each foot of rising water. Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles.


http://www.ussartf.org/flooding.htm

 

[houndstooth]

Yes, this has the ring of truth to it, once it is laid out like you have worded it. But, to me, it would make more sense if the boy had not been found, and if the 2 had run off. Or do you think the tide, their drowning, was all an accident, and she did intend them BOTH to run off?

I have no proof as yet that she did drown. The dogs alerted on something. If you read my posts today, I suspect that she planned to leave her son abandoned in the car, hopefully not to die, and leave with someone she had arranged to meet at that spot. 9 days is a long time for neither her body, the suitcase or it's contents, and her purse to not be found on a beach or snagged on a log somewhere along the banks.

For the moment she is a missing person. I will not presume her dead.

 

[sorrell skye]

Here's the thing with alcohol - even if a person passes out from over-indulging, in a few hours they wake up again after the effects of the alcohol wear off, due to the brain chemistry being altered. The alcohol interferes with the brain's normal dopamine production, and as a result, the sleep patterns are thrown out of whack. A person who fell asleep under the influence of alcohol will typically have a difficult time sleeping through the night. Insomnia is common.

If SS fell asleep after drinking half that jug of wine, I'd venture to say she awoke in the middle of the night, well before the tide was at its highest in the morning, if for no other reason than she had to empty her bladder.

 

[Beyond Belief]

I just read the older models weighed 3500 or 3600 lbs and the new one 4300. Couldn't find the 05.

Anyway in 2 ft of water the vehicle would loose 3000 lbs.
I wonder if the van was shifting and thats what woke them up. Scared them to death probably.

 

[90Nine]

Do you think maybe she was low on gas, which is why she was peering in the window at the station & why she didn't run the van the whole time? I wish we knew abt how high the water was, too--if it was high enough & there was a little tide enough to loose your footing and Az couldn't swim, we know what may have happened to him.

What we do know, from what has been told, is that the van was totally submerged at high tide. Does this mean that the depth of the water was more than 5 feet?

I'm not sure how tall a van is. 6 feet? So at high tide, 6am, van totally submerged....I don't know. The door wouldn't have been able to open if the water was too high. So the water had to be lower...which makes it hard to understand how she would have drown or been pulled out.

The van is about 7 feet in length. They got there at 11 so it was already out by about 2 feet and I don't know if they were in it, I'm guessin not. The tide rose about 1.7 feet per hour leaving 12 feet left to rise. I'm just not sure of the depth of the water...wish we knew.

 

[SMK]

I just read the older models weighed 3500 or 3600 lbs and the new one 4300. Couldn't find the 05.

Anyway in 2 ft of water the vehicle would loose 3000 lbs.
I wonder if the van was shifting and thats what woke them up. Scared them to death probably.

Yes, that may indeed have been what woke them, the van rocking in the water. That would be enough to unnerve anyone.

 

[SMK]

Here's the thing with alcohol - even if a person passes out from over-indulging, in a few hours they wake up again after the effects of the alcohol wear off, due to the brain chemistry being altered. The alcohol interferes with the brain's normal dopamine production, and as a result, the sleep patterns are thrown out of whack. A person who fell asleep under the influence of alcohol will typically have a difficult time sleeping through the night. Insomnia is common.

If SS fell asleep after drinking half that jug of wine, I'd venture to say she awoke in the middle of the night, well before the tide was at its highest in the morning, if for no other reason than she had to empty her bladder.

But then, went back to sleep? and then got awakened by the van, rocking and shifting with the rising tide?

 

[RubyRed]

911 Call

Man says "too bad they didn't come ask for help last night, I'd have put a chain on and hauled them out and just scolded them for trespassing".....

http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-031610-audio-search,0,2743159.mp3file

 

[sorrell skye]

TY Ruby!

So, according to that 911 call, there were tire tracks there before the tow truck arrived.

Well, that answers at least one of my questions.

Based on that info, one can assume, from the photos that have been posted of the tire tracks, that the van was backed all the way down to the shoreline upon arrival, IMO, as we were wondering about earlier today, and not driven straight in to the shoreline & then attempted to turn around, since there are no tire tracks in the photo that lead directly to the shoreline.

In the photo of the tire tracks, it looks as if the van was turned around near the pier/dock/boardwalk, and backed up across the beach to the shoreline.

 

[Beyond Belief]

just an fyi, all cars are over 12 ft long except the Smart car.

 

[90Nine]

just an fyi, all cars are over 12 ft long except the Smart car.

thanks - i'm tired...I was remember me measuring the inside, not counting the front of the car.

 

[houndstooth]

I watched a lot of the news videos today and every single one said the van was partially submerged. I think the spatter pattern of mud on the windshield and hood shows what part of the van was covered. Since it was not floated off as might be expected in deeper water with the current, it looks like it was never in more than about 4 feet of water. Too deep for Az to get out of but not too deep for SS. Since the dogs did scent on something then she or both got out to walk a certain distance away from the car that was ABOVE the high water mark. I am not sure how well dogs can smell under salt water.

Someone asked about how the tiretracks survived. Compression will make them and it is over a period of time that they fill back in. Initially, the water actually makes the marks clearer because it settles and packs it in. I have seen old tire tracks on the beach that are days if not weeks old. It depends on the weight of the vehicle and the type of sand.

 

[sorrell skye]

This is interesting: About flooding.
For each foot water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs of water. In effect the car weighs 1500 lbs less with each foot of rising water. Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles.


http://www.ussartf.org/flooding.htm

BBM

I hate to say it - but was that the plan? IDK. I hope not.

 

[houndstooth]

BBM

I hate to say it - but was that the plan? IDK. I hope not.

Right you are. You can sleep or whatever on the beach without driving almost to the waters edge! Backing down. Seems like an intoxicated person would not think to back down there as most people who go to the waterfront park face out to enjoy to view and watch the water. Only if you were keeping watch in the other direction would you face an unattractive road bed.

 

[ajfa]

This is interesting: About flooding.
For each foot water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs of water. In effect the car weighs 1500 lbs less with each foot of rising water. Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles.


http://www.ussartf.org/flooding.htm

BBM

Interesting information about two feet of water carrying away most automobiles, unless, I wonder, if the back hatch is open and the side door is open? At which point it would just fill with water and lose its buoyancy and be submerged?

Makes me wonder if SS and Az were not in the van when high tide came in, or they were in the van with the doors already open when the tide came in.

 

[RubyRed]

I watched a lot of the news videos today and every single one said the van was partially submerged. I think the spatter pattern of mud on the windshield and hood shows what part of the van was covered. Since it was not floated off as might be expected in deeper water with the current, it looks like it was never in more than about 4 feet of water. Too deep for Az to get out of but not too deep for SS. Since the dogs did scent on something then she or both got out to walk a certain distance away from the car that was ABOVE the high water mark. I am not sure how well dogs can smell under salt water.



Someone asked about how the tiretracks survived. Compression will make them and it is over a period of time that they fill back in. Initially, the water actually makes the marks clearer because it settles and packs it in. I have seen old tire tracks on the beach that are days if not weeks old. It depends on the weight of the vehicle and the type of sand.

bbm

According to this article Det. Stine said it was submerged, and in the 911 call, it is also said it was almost completely covered, when it was first noticed.

On Sunday morning, a nearby resident found their minivan, doors open and keys on the dash, partially submerged and stuck in the mud near Dana Passage. At high tide, it appeared the water covered the van, Stines said.

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2010/mar/19/missing-boys-death-ruled-accidental/?print=1


911 Call

http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-031610-audio-search,0,2743159.mp3file

 

[sorrell skye]

Right you are. You can sleep or whatever on the beach without driving almost to the waters edge! Backing down. Seems like an intoxicated person would not think to back down there as most people who go to the waterfront park face out to enjoy to view and watch the water. Only if you were keeping watch in the other direction would you face an unattractive road bed.

I've often wondered why the van was facing away from the water, at the very edge of where the low tide mark is.

And with the photo of the tire tracks, and with the info from the 911 caller that says the tire tracks were there in the morning (they weren't washed away by the tide, so high enough to be safe).

Backing up in the dark (new moon - pitch black outside) while allegedly intoxicated, across an expanse of beach, and somehow stopping just at the water's edge (in reverse), when parking on higher ground would have been the more logical choice for someone who has lived near the water & has at least a basic knowledge of tides.

Hmmmm...

 

[Beyond Belief]

Are they sure she got stuck when she first got there? or could she have tried to get out when she realize the water was coming in?

I also don't get her only have a sweatshirt jacket on. She grew up in that area she knows how cold it gets.

Who know what they took with them. Do they own sleeping bags? I would think so. Were they missing?

And was there a flashlight in the rear of the van. These are scouting folks, be prepared, there should have a least been a flashlight in the van.