Seeking Key Info 6/10-6/14 for New Leads

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Ping Maps for June 10 through June 14 have been completed and posted.
 
Looks like Casey spent evening of 6/9 to morning of 6/10 at Ricardo's. This is not a timeframe I have studied. However, I recall mention that this happened with and without Caylee, and another time Casey supposedly drove Caylee to her parents and then went back.

Do we know where Caylee was that night? Cindy does not call her that night. (Lot's of texts with Tony though - poor guy).
 
Found an error in earlier analysis, so I deleted that post and took the opportunity to do a more specific Chi Square statistical analysis...with compelling results...

The general standard to accept this type of analysis is to achieve a result with a "confidence interval" of at least 95%, which is simply to say how well does the data fit the prediction.

By removing some dates with known 'special cause' issues I tightened in on the specific issue of interest. For example, as JWG points out, we know 6/9 Casey stayed w/ Caylee @ Ricardo's and we want to know about the possibility that Casey kept Caylee @ Lee's, so I eliminated the 6/9 date from the analysis. Similarly, it is unclear if Casey brought Caylee to G&C's Saturday night 6/14 for the nursing home trip 6/15, so I eliminated that date as well. We also know that Casey made trips home during the day throughout the entire period which are unrelated to establishing where Caylee was kept at night, hence, I looked only at the time period between 8PM-8AM each night (thanks to JWG for this suggestion!).


What we're left with is a comparison of the towers pinged in the area of G&C and Lee's houses between 8PM-8AM each night for the periods:
Period 1: June Tue 6/3 - Fri 6/6
Period 2: June Tue 6/10 - Fri 6/13​

The towers involved are:
Tower 8: 1.5 mi S of Anthony Home @ Tow Yard
Tower 12: 2 mi SW of Anthony Home, Lee Vista/Goldenrod
Tower 22: 1.5 mi NW of Anthony Home​
Owing to Casey's prolific cell use we have a tremendous sample size for both periods. :blowkiss: This enables the analysis to achieve excellent resolution:
Period 1: 278 pings
Period 2: 223 pings​
RESULT: With a 99.99% confidence interval there was a statistically significant shift in the location of Casey's cell pings when in the area of G&C's and Lee's. Pings shifted in the following manner when comparing Period 1 vs. Period 2:
Tower 8 (S): Pings shifted toward this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1
Tower 12 (SW): Pings shifted away from this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1
Tower 22 (NW): Pings shifted toward this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1​
This result directionally supports with a high statistical confidence the shift of pings toward the northeast (away from SW) in the direction of Lee's home for the period 6/10-6/13.
 
WOW WOW WOW...great work Bond!! I hope we can do this analysis for the week of the 16th also. Now I am so curious to see if she is at LA's that week as well because if she was then oh my that changes things..wow..
 
Nice work Bond.

Hats off to The Ping Team.

Can we tell by the CID numbers what sector she would have pinged off of the tow yard tower. Just wondering if the pings off of that tower were in fact times spent at the A's or somewhere else but still within range. I still think she had a 'go to' spot that she could wait for GA or CA as the case may be to leave so she could come back to the house. We know she was not doing it by a visual or no need to make those phone calls back to the house and cell phone like she did. It had to be someplace within range of one of those towers that she would hit close to home. Someplace reasonably close but not someplace that she would draw attention to herself coming and going. She may have been taking Caylee to Lee's but she still had to have somplace that she could hang out untill the cost was clear. Working off of CoccoMom's theory but in a more secluded location or someones home that the neighbors would not think a thing about someone coming and going or notice anything odd. Someplace no one would pay attention if a car was parked off to the side or pulled into a dirt lane. The way her car was plastered all over TV down there if she was pulling in and out of Lee's driveway I would think that the neighborhood busybody would have made note of it. The area of Suburban Dr. would ping off of this tower would it not. It may just be within range if it is a 2.5 mile tower.
 
Bond-Wow! I'm completely blown away with your expertise and impressed with your data.

This technical stuff makes my head spin. And my apologies... Somehow another poster mistakenly added my name to the ping credit list. I swear I didn't pay them to do that!!!lol.

Question. Is there ANY tidbit of known info to support the theory that KC visited Lee's home EVER? Any email, text, interview revelation...anything to suggest going to Lee's house was an option or a regular known habit. Cause I'm not feeling this. And didn't he have a roomate?
 
One of the things that ca asks kc more than once in the new videos is if caylee ever spent the night at tone's. kc says no, ca says are you sure ? kc-no never. I think ca realizes there were nights that kc stayed at tones, but ca didnt have caylee, and ca cant figure out where caylee must have been.
 
KellioPSL said:
One of the things that ca asks kc more than once in the new videos is if caylee ever spent the night at tone's. kc says no, ca says are you sure ? kc-no never. I think ca realizes there were nights that kc stayed at tones, but ca didnt have caylee, and ca cant figure out where caylee must have been.
Click to expand...

ITA! I want to learn more about this air mattress.
 
In additional to your own research I've been putting together a timeline of information based on information that came from the LE interviews. Just as with your own work, this is a work in progress and is being updated as I transcribe, or get help to transcribe many of the .PDF files into text format.

If you go to my transcript page, at the top are links to my timeline pages. I have one very long one that covers all years and then the timeline pages broken down into individual years. Here's the link, I hope this helps:
http://www.acandyrose.com/caylee_anthony_transcripts.htm

This is so time consuming to just get my own site together that I haven't had time to research and add the ping records associated with events but hope to do that down the road.

Also my "Caylee Anthony Case Name List" has cross references links under each name that link back to the original LE transcripts or document where that person's name is referenced. Again, this page is a work in progress as names are added as they are located within other documents.

http://www.acandyrose.com/caylee_anthony_name_list.htm

Last, but not least, I'm working on RECAPS for this last public records dump of 11/26/2008 since there is a lot of information on it where we do not have the full transcripts as yet, as well as information within LE's Investigative report that we were not aware of. I have already done a lot on the RECAPS but there is still a lot to do. I'm reading and typing as fast as I can !

That link is here:

http://www.acandyrose.com/caylee_anthony_recaps_112608docs(wesh).htm
(or you can find a live link at the very bottom of the Transcript page above)

I hope some of this might help you with your own research :-)

ACR
 
shadow of my mind said:
Nice work Bond.

Hats off to The Ping Team.

Can we tell by the CID numbers what sector she would have pinged off of the tow yard tower. Just wondering if the pings off of that tower were in fact times spent at the A's or somewhere else but still within range. I still think she had a 'go to' spot that she could wait for GA or CA as the case may be to leave so she could come back to the house. We know she was not doing it by a visual or no need to make those phone calls back to the house and cell phone like she did. It had to be someplace within range of one of those towers that she would hit close to home. Someplace reasonably close but not someplace that she would draw attention to herself coming and going. She may have been taking Caylee to Lee's but she still had to have somplace that she could hang out untill the cost was clear. Working off of CoccoMom's theory but in a more secluded location or someones home that the neighbors would not think a thing about someone coming and going or notice anything odd. Someplace no one would pay attention if a car was parked off to the side or pulled into a dirt lane. The way her car was plastered all over TV down there if she was pulling in and out of Lee's driveway I would think that the neighborhood busybody would have made note of it. The area of Suburban Dr. would ping off of this tower would it not. It may just be within range if it is a 2.5 mile tower.
Click to expand...

The pings off the tow yard tower have a CID with last digit of 1, indicating pings to the north sector.

Because pings to the north from that tower reach Lee's, they certainly would reach the school on Suburban.
 
BondJamesBond said:
Found an error in earlier analysis, so I deleted that post and took the opportunity to do a more specific Chi Square statistical analysis...with compelling results...

The general standard to accept this type of analysis is to achieve a result with a "confidence interval" of at least 95%, which is simply to say how well does the data fit the prediction.

By removing some dates with known 'special cause' issues I tightened in on the specific issue of interest. For example, as JWG points out, we know 6/9 Casey stayed w/ Caylee @ Ricardo's and we want to know about the possibility that Casey kept Caylee @ Lee's, so I eliminated the 6/9 date from the analysis. Similarly, it is unclear if Casey brought Caylee to G&C's Saturday night 6/14 for the nursing home trip 6/15, so I eliminated that date as well. We also know that Casey made trips home during the day throughout the entire period which are unrelated to establishing where Caylee was kept at night, hence, I looked only at the time period between 8PM-8AM each night (thanks to JWG for this suggestion!).


What we're left with is a comparison of the towers pinged in the area of G&C and Lee's houses between 8PM-8AM each night for the periods:
Period 1: June Tue 6/3 - Fri 6/6
Period 2: June Tue 6/10 - Fri 6/13​

The towers involved are:
Tower 8: 1.5 mi S of Anthony Home @ Tow Yard
Tower 12: 2 mi SW of Anthony Home, Lee Vista/Goldenrod
Tower 22: 1.5 mi NW of Anthony Home​
Owing to Casey's prolific cell use we have a tremendous sample size for both periods. :blowkiss: This enables the analysis to achieve excellent resolution:
Period 1: 278 pings
Period 2: 223 pings​
RESULT: With a 99.99% confidence interval there was a statistically significant shift in the location of Casey's cell pings when in the area of G&C's and Lee's. Pings shifted in the following manner when comparing Period 1 vs. Period 2:
Tower 8 (S): Pings shifted toward this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1
Tower 12 (SW): Pings shifted away from this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1
Tower 22 (NW): Pings shifted toward this tower in Period 2 as compared to Period 1​
This result directionally supports with a high statistical confidence the shift of pings toward the northeast (away from SW) in the direction of Lee's home for the period 6/10-6/13.
Click to expand...

WOW, how are you doing this???

I can't remember the exact thing CA said to Yuri, but in the interview in the begining, he has a calander with CA , and I could have sworn, she said she had Caylee, the whole week she was on VAC. That would be 6-1 to 6-8 going back Monday morning the 9th. I am conviniced there was a fight on the night of that Monday 6-9 between KC and CA. That date rings for them. A text on 6-11 to AH, KC states "Stupid Drama" I think it is over CA wanting KC to stop this, because KC is now living with TL as of 6-10. Tony says Caylee never stayed over, do you think she was at Lee's? CA did say the week she went back KC was in and out that week b4 Father Day, and she said she had Caylee "SHE THINKS" some of those nights. I may be remembering this wrong, but I maked on my calander as they talked and I blocked out 6-9 to 6-14 days/nights KC had to find a place for Caylee.

Hope this doesn't confuse the everything:confused:
 
Great work, Bond!

The only thing that makes me hesitate about the feasibility of KC ever staying over at LA's is that there is very little cellphone action between the two of them. I will do this myself sometime today, but I'd really like to see the cellphone activity between the 2 of them in both time periods.

Given the amount of texting that she does and her need to be in constant communication with people, I would tend to think that she would at least give a heads-up call or text before going over to LA's house.

And we also have LA's testimony that the last time he saw Caylee was at his parents' house.
 
ca says in interviews that caylee only stayed somewhere else, a couple of times. after watching the new vids where she asks kc if caylee ever stayed at tones, kc says no, ca says are you sure ? kc says no never. All of the full sail gang says caylee never stayed over there. I dont think that caylee was with ca as much as we thought during the vacation time, I get the impression that ca was wondering where caylee had been during those times before the 15th/16th of june, when kc said they were staying over at zanni's, but then later le shows ca statements from tone and the gang about dates that kc stayed over but no caylee with her. just mho, still trying to connect kc nights out partying with caylee in the trunk. there are some significant dates in may that might help prove this. did anyone notice in the newest doc dump that they were able to recover almost 400 deleted text messages using some new software? would love to see those, wish they would ask for that to be released under foi or sunshine.also would like to see time cards for ca for the months of may june and july. (sounds like I'm making a xmas wish list)
 
Bern said:
WOW, how are you doing this???

I can't remember the exact thing CA said to Yuri, but in the interview in the begining, he has a calander with CA , and I could have sworn, she said she had Caylee, the whole week she was on VAC. That would be 6-1 to 6-8 going back Monday morning the 9th. I am conviniced there was a fight on the night of that Monday 6-9 between KC and CA. That date rings for them. A text on 6-11 to AH, KC states "Stupid Drama" I think it is over CA wanting KC to stop this, because KC is now living with TL as of 6-10. Tony says Caylee never stayed over, do you think she was at Lee's? CA did say the week she went back KC was in and out that week b4 Father Day, and she said she had Caylee "SHE THINKS" some of those nights. I may be remembering this wrong, but I maked on my calander as they talked and I blocked out 6-9 to 6-14 days/nights KC had to find a place for Caylee.

Hope this doesn't confuse the everything:confused:
Click to expand...

bond can you guys post the actual ping map (please), I dont know much about them, but it helps me see where shes been in my head. can ya post it so we can "see it" tia
 
Were thinking LA might have been out of town at some point during the week either a few days or possibly the whole week-so therefore there would be no need to call/text him as she would most likely "sneaking" into his house....because she knew he was out of town..If he wasnt out of town or if he has a roomate that was home then that would change things....It would mean that she wasn't there or that LA knew she was there and has been lying to LE........
 
KellioPSL said:
bond can you guys post the actual ping map (please), I dont know much about them, but it helps me see where shes been in my head. can ya post it so we can "see it" tia
Click to expand...

The Ping maps are located in the " Anthony Case Sticky Threads " http://www.websleuths.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=233, scroll down the list and find the date your are looking for and go to the 1st post, that is where the Ping Map link will be located, click on the link and the map will open.
 
Some misc. points recap'ing recents posts...

  • Hidden Oaks Elem & Suburban Dr. certainly meet the same geographic criteria as Lee's w.r.t. the chi square conclusion
  • Earlier in this thread you'll see work attempting to establish Lee's in vs. outta town status. Some evidence to support he was in & out through June...anyone w/ info (myspace, etc.) pls jump in!
  • Just because the analysis is for 6/2-6/9 doesn't mean Casey had Caylee in the Lee/HOElem area EVERY night of this span...still possible for a night @ C&G's, but, a 99.99% CI suggests it doesn't seem likely
  • There are links to the ping maps for each day posted as the first post of each of the Ping Map sticky threads in this sticky forum (Georgia PI posted). Pick almost any day you wish. There is also a sticky thread that shows all the pings for the entire period (not sure what date it starts)...a.k.a. the "mother of all ping maps" :)
  • Chi square is a basic statistics tool used to determine if two sets of discrete data can be distinguished one from the other vs. all being all part of a single set of data. The analysis can be done on an individual period post-6/15 to compare to 6/2 or 6/10 period as someone asked, but, unfortunately, with fewer data points owing to onesee-twosee-nights-only away from Tony or Amy&Ric's post-6/15, the ability to resolve a difference is prolly gonna be too weak to resolve.
 
Bond,

have you separated the calls for those dates between "SMS" and "Actual calls" to see if one tower hits more while using "SMS" than on a tower that the Actual calls are made on, Just wondering if there was a pattern.
 
BondJamesBond said:
Some misc. points recap'ing recents posts...

Snipped

[*]There are links to the ping maps for each day posted as the first post of each of the Ping Map sticky threads in this sticky forum (Georgia PI posted). Pick almost any day you wish. There is also a sticky thread that shows all the pings for the entire period (not sure what date it starts)...a.k.a. the "mother of all ping maps" :)
Click to expand...


Tower Ping Map from June 15 to July 16 ( Towers 1 thru 58)
 
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