I think you have a good analysis.
Professionals, or even semi professional burglars would probably have taken some measures to conceal their car. An "Owner left- smash, grab 'n go" group, however, may not care about concealing the car.
But... I dont think such a group would target a house unless they had a good idea that it contained things worth the risk- drugs, guns, expensive tools, loadable jet skis, motorcycle etc.
In the end, and well, not very flattering, I think the totality of your observations (daughter gone) supports an arranged delivery of sorts such as your noted possibilities of drugs or uhmm.... "adult encounters" of the professional sort.
Maybe he had used the "delivery service" before and trusted it as being reliable, quick and discreet. But.... this time they sent a new sub contractor who, unknown to everybody, is capable of impulse murder / robbery?