What Trump's conviction means for election
Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent
Donald Trump’s criminal conviction presents a remarkable collection of historic firsts.
He’s the first former US president to be found guilty of a felony. He’s the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon as well.
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In exit polls conducted during those Republican primaries this winter, double-digit numbers of voters said that they would not vote for the former president if he were convicted of a felony. Thirty-two percent of Republican voters in North Carolina’s March primary said Trump would not be fit for the presidency if convicted.
An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of those backing Trump would reconsider their support in such a situation.
Those were hypothetical convictions, however.
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“History books will record this as a truly extraordinary, unprecedented event, but a lot will depend on what happens afterwards,” he says.
The ultimate judgement on the importance of Trump’s conviction will come at the hands of voters in November. If the former president is defeated, his guilty verdict is likely to be viewed as one of the reasons why.
If he wins, it may become just a footnote to Trump’s tumultuous yet consequential political career.
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There is no precedence for this moment - but we will have to wait until November to know the real impact.
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