An act of retaliation was discussed at length earlier in the threads and was quite a plausible explanation after reading everything including SM rumours at the time, still a possibility I suppose but seeing as Cupcake wasn't at her home address, was at the cousins, it couldn't have been known beforehand that she would be outside playing unsupervised giving the perfect opportunity for her to be taken, I personally am leaning more now to a stranger abduction of opportunity moo, especially with the surveillance footage of her following the POI moo