Australia - Allison Baden-Clay, 43, Brisbane QLD, 19 April 2012 - #8

[Greg]

OK PEOPLE...I TRIED EARLIER TO POST SOMETHING AND WAS HINDERED THREE TIMES!!!!!
SO...........I HAVE A LITTLE EXCERCISE FOR ALL YOU ENTHUSIASTIC SLEUTHS..

without thinking AT ALL.....type in and post 'WHAT YOU THINK HAPPENED' ....avoid all assumptions and just go with the simplest choice that you see.

The reason I asked this is a little principle called Occam's Theory...it states that the hypotheses which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation is usually the right one....I had a much better 'intelligent-sounding' post before, but it wouldn't log me in, so this is it plain and simple (BTW, when I mentioned Occam's Razor earlier, a much wiser fellow sleuther with WAY more knowledge on occam's razor than me gave some wonderful insight but I can't remember who it was)

basically you 'shave away' unneccesary assumptions....GIVE IT A GO...I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE RAWEST OF THEORIES BY ALL ON THIS FORUM

business failing, financial trouble, parents house mortgaged, infidelity with other woman wants to move on, domineering father telling son he has failed his family about to put his mother on street, pressure to find solution, time running out, life insurance/super, does deed, tells father, combined dumping of body near scout camp familiar territory,

 

[marlywings]

As I said, before, dectectives from "Missing Persons" usually run, missing person investigations, not homicide. Something that the first responding police on the scene noticed, when she was first reported missing on the Friday, made it necessary for the homicide unit to "take point" /run this investigation, from the get go. Instead of leaving in the hands of the missing person unit. THIS IS NOT THE NORM! They're not going to come out and say that they believe she's dead, before they find her body. Just like they're not coming out to the public and saying what her cause of death is, even though they pretty much know it's stragulation.

I'm quite sure there would have been a lot of people who believed she may have still been alive...including her parents.

"They pretty much know it's "stragulation"

Could you point us all to a report where it states that please??

 

[pudwink]

Minni this is for you;

1. IMHO...this is how I speculate things may have happened...
ABC murdered at home following argument; body disposed near camping grounds, phone dumped locally to coincide with "she went for a walk.." must have been (abducted, decided to commit suicide etc), reported next morning as she was due at training seminar that morning. Observations made by police that Friday lead to a massive search-IMO police already suspected foul play early on-just need the hard evidence. AS for the significance of roundabout-who knows whats on the camera???

 

[Barram5]

Not sure which Paul Tully blog post somebody was referring to a few posts back, but I just read one of his blog posts titled "Will DNA evidence finger Allison Baden-Clay's killer? " and thought the last line was pretty interesting.

http://paulgtully.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/allison-baden-clay-baden-clay-murder.html

If you click on that link and then ... Newer post a few times until you see (How long more do we have to wait )

 

[Sydney Girl]

Same theory here - RE business failing,BIG financial trouble, parents house mortgaged, wife confronts him for a divorce or $, they argue, things get heated, time running out, life insurance/super, does deed probably in heat of the moment, tells family, combined dumping of body near scout camp familiar territory, hope that body not found but rains wash her down the creek.

 

[AllyG]

I'm going to pm you let me know if you get it. All of icons on my phone are little question marks and it is very cold here and my network is *advertiser censored*

Still no pm Did you get mine?

 

[Lu-Lu]

I didn't say that she was left where she was found. I said that she wasn't buried or wrapped in a blanket, which is the usual MO for people who kill someone close to them.

Sorry, what I meant was in regards to you saying that usually someone who knows the victim tries to conceal them in some way, ie: buried or wrapped in blanket, tarp etc. I just put forward that perhaps placing her where I suggested that may have been concealed enough in their eyes. Thinking that the body would either skeletonise or be washed away. Just as an alternative theory.

I thought I had put some quotes in of what you had posted, to post about those points. But it obviously didn't work, seeing I was cutting and pasting from the printable version.

 

[minni]

Wow! 270 visitors tonight??:rocker:

more than a few want to see justice for Allison hey?.....I wish she could see and feel the love and support she has..I hope her little girls always remember how special their mum was...if not in their own memories as they grow older, but through the INSANELY MASSIVE amount of people who have been affected by her life through her tragic death....she has touched EVERYONE I have spoke to

 

[loosemarbles]

Came home from hair appointment arround 7.30 ended up in discussion, told lets go for a drive maybe were we used to kids camping became heated from here things went very bad was already heading along boscombe rd where Mr Trutter heard screams, GBC lost it or went too far,
OMG call Family ... just my 2cents :maddening:

 

[Rudra]

There are many things I find bizarre about this case, but one thing troubles me in terms of police procedure. It appears that GBC has never been taken in for intensive questioning, as a prime suspect. Yes, he's got the lawyer, but still if they thought there were any problems with his story wouldn't they have him in there pointing out that he didn't have his story straight. The lawyer might say: you don't have to answer that, but still they'd question him wouldn't they?

It just seems that whatever he told QPS must be holding up as plausible, and they already have a straight story from him. In which case the confusion in the media reports is the usual case of the media not getting it right.

 

[minni]

business failing, financial trouble, parents house mortgaged, infidelity with other woman wants to move on, domineering father telling son he has failed his family about to put his mother on street, pressure to find solution, time running out, life insurance/super, does deed, tells father, combined dumping of body near scout camp familiar territory,

YES! thanks Greg..exactly what I meant

 

[Humdinger]

OK PEOPLE...I TRIED EARLIER TO POST SOMETHING AND WAS HINDERED THREE TIMES!!!!!
SO...........I HAVE A LITTLE EXCERCISE FOR ALL YOU ENTHUSIASTIC SLEUTHS..

without thinking AT ALL.....type in and post 'WHAT YOU THINK HAPPENED' ....avoid all assumptions and just go with the simplest choice that you see.

The reason I asked this is a little principle called Occam's Theory...it states that the hypotheses which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation is usually the right one....I had a much better 'intelligent-sounding' post before, but it wouldn't log me in, so this is it plain and simple (BTW, when I mentioned Occam's Razor earlier, a much wiser fellow sleuther with WAY more knowledge on occam's razor than me gave some wonderful insight but I can't remember who it was)

basically you 'shave away' unneccesary assumptions....GIVE IT A GO...I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE RAWEST OF THEORIES BY ALL ON THIS FORUM

Allison came home lookin and feeling smokin' from her hair app, GBC with his insecurities starts on her in true narcisistic style, with no kids around they argue in a way they don't normally, he strikes out, she falls and either dies or is knocked unconcious and is killed later.
GBC freaks, calls someone in a panic and they plan to dispose of the body

I have NFI if I'm right or wrong, but you asked for my gut and here it is... That seems like the most simple of scenarios.

RIP Allison, I really didn't like typing that because I just don't know...

 

[minni]

minni this is for you;

1. Imho...this is how i speculate things may have happened...
Abc murdered at home following argument; body disposed near camping grounds, phone dumped locally to coincide with "she went for a walk.." must have been (abducted, decided to commit suicide etc), reported next morning as she was due at training seminar that morning. Observations made by police that friday lead to a massive search-imo police already suspected foul play early on-just need the hard evidence. As for the significance of roundabout-who knows whats on the camera???

thanks pudwink!!

 

[minni]

same theory here - re business failing,big financial trouble, parents house mortgaged, wife confronts him for a divorce or $, they argue, things get heated, time running out, life insurance/super, does deed probably in heat of the moment, tells family, combined dumping of body near scout camp familiar territory, hope that body not found but rains wash her down the creek.

thanks sydney girl!!

 

[AllyG]

There are many things I find bizarre about this case, but one thing troubles me in terms of police procedure. It appears that GBC has never been taken in for intensive questioning, as a prime suspect. Yes, he's got the lawyer, but still if they thought there were any problems with his story wouldn't they have him in there pointing out that he didn't have his story straight. The lawyer might say: you don't have to answer that, but still they'd question him wouldn't they?

It just seems that whatever he told QPS must be holding up as plausible, and they already have a straight story from him. In which case the confusion in the media reports is the usual case of the media not getting it right.

I'm not too sure how police processes go, so this is purely speculation on my part. I assume that they could request him to come in to make a statement, however he is able to say "No thanks". It may be different if he was actually named as a suspect, and definitely would be different if he were charged. However he is always within his right to not answer any questions.

 

[coolcat]

Coolcat...no family members are allowed to assist in a homicide or potential homicide search....including at Command Centre!!

Someone forget to tell the Dikies that then??

Where are you getting your facts from 543...I am sorry for sounding a little doubtful but they seem a little random?

 

[Maxymoo]

Like many of us here, this crime has consumed my time. I've met the guy and have difficulties believing he did it, albeit I have only met him once, but it is a case that so many of us in our normal family lives can relate to, hence the interest. That said, having been here from thread 1, I think we have little to add. To all the newbies, start from post 1 thread1, and try to come up with a new theory .... Don't think it possible. Some great contributers, Hawkins is a stand out for his obvious expertise and insight.
Justice will prevail .... I hope we are all wrong

HN MAN makes me feel like a bit of a looser now. But right none the less. i started only couple of days ago and read back from post one.

In April last year I was involved in a nasty Domestic when I went to my daughters place to pick up her and her four month old son.
I was pushed through a window with my grandson in my arms. He was covered in blood as I ran out in the street and into a nearby church with him in my arms. Some men from the church went back for my daughter. Her defacto had her on the ground trying to stomp on her neck. Who knows where we would be had I waited another day or another hour.
She is with a wonderful guy now who loves my grandson like he was his own. After all that we are now having to fight in court against an application for joint custody.
I raised a confident assertive educated young woman. It can happen to anyone. Just be there. Don't judge or nag just be there.
:blowkiss:
I shall return when further evidence comes to hand as I'm sure HN man will also. Big Cyber Hugs.

 

[CIB]

OK PEOPLE...I TRIED EARLIER TO POST SOMETHING AND WAS HINDERED THREE TIMES!!!!!
SO...........I HAVE A LITTLE EXCERCISE FOR ALL YOU ENTHUSIASTIC SLEUTHS..

without thinking AT ALL.....type in and post 'WHAT YOU THINK HAPPENED' ....avoid all assumptions and just go with the simplest choice that you see.

I think Allison was murdered by GBC at their home that Thursday night for financial/personal gain....I believe there were marriage problems and he was having an affair and wanted her gone and also saw the financial benefits of her being out of the picture (life insurance, no child support etc.).

I don't think he expected to be seen as a suspect. I think he thought no-one would be suspicious of him and that it would be treated as a random attack/missing person/mugging gone wrong etc. IMO.

 

[Rational]

In response to Mini s request.

Agreed to scheduled meeting as per counsellor's instructions. To really be able to talk without little ears listening children to sleep at Nigelaine ('mummy has to leave early tomorrow as she has conference').allison arrives home from hairdresser feeling confident and looking good thinks 'what am I doing with him?' tells him she wants out, he sees the financial implications and looses the plot, starts yelling and screaming, strangles her, rings his father, who agrees to meet him at bus stop so no one else will see. GBC bundles Allison in car, picks up daddy at Bus stop who has parked the car near shopping centre. Body dumped away from scout camp, but gets dislodged by heavy rain. Daddy gets dropped by GBC who drives home, daddy discards tarp body was wrapped in in bin. Both drive home. Daddy has instructed son 'you do not need to tell police anything, just tell hem you last saw her watching telly, and that he kids were asleep than in morning we say she went for a walk, I will back it up because I drove that way anyhow, and we will get you a lawyer ASAP'. Spokes in wheel were: neighbours hearing argument, GBC having affair, kids deciding to quickly saying hello to mummy across as only across road and seeing her car here and discounting in fRont of police that they were not home.

 

[mimi2456]

As I said, before, dectectives from "Missing Persons" usually run, missing person investigations, not homicide. Something that the first responding police on the scene noticed, when she was first reported missing on the Friday, made it necessary for the homicide unit to "take point" /run this investigation, from the get go. Instead of leaving in the hands of the missing person unit. THIS IS NOT THE NORM! They're not going to come out and say that they believe she's dead, before they find her body. Just like they're not coming out to the public and saying what her cause of death is, even though they pretty much know it's stragulation.

What if they've already been tipped off? What if they already have info about underhanded BC dealings and it was flagged upon the call? There are undercover police out there. Speculative.. Now you've got me doing it too! But it explains immediate action upon the "missing person" call by GBC.