Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996 - 1997, Perth, Western Australia - #4

[J35]

What are the probabilities associated with each level of DNA sample completeness?

Per J35: In the USA, A full dna profile consists of 13 loci (STRs) or 26 alleles, with 15 or more alleles being cause for familial DNA testing.

1. Is there a chart that shows the probability of any random individual matching a certain number of alleles to a given DNA sample?

2. How many alleles are available in most partial DNA samples and what is the normal range and variance of this number in available historic cases? Is it common for a 'partial DNA sample' to include 6 alleles? Would a 2-allele sample even be called a partial or would that just be thrown out?

If we assume the police have an average-sized partial DNA match then maybe we can develop a rough understanding of how significant that kind of DNA evidence would be as a tool for the investigation. If a common partial DNA sample is 6 alleles and this is really only useful for eliminating 40% of the male population, that would be much less significant than the normal layman's conception of the influence of DNA evidence on an investigation.
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Hey bud, haven't read all your post yet but some great questions that I will try and answer to the best of my ability [undergraduate degree - my post grad focused more on molecular side- determining mitogenomes with next gen sequencing and subsequent phylogenetic analysis of species]

A1) probability is dependent on the population frequency data-- you can have a play around with calculators such as this one
http://www.1000genomes.org/announcements/allele-frequency-calculator-1000gb-2014-06-25

A2) You would have a %cut off - say 40% allele match - otherwise you will have many low statistical hits for only a few matching alleles. So yes, 2 or 6 allele match out of 26 alleles = exclusion (see A3).

A3) 6 alleles out of 26 would not be statistically significant: for example the likely hood of two unrelated people sharing the same 6 alleles may be only 1:1250 (example only- depends on the alleles obviously) where as 23/26 alleles is more likely to be in the 1: billion (example only) for the given population.

It should be noted that AUS used ProfilerPlus back in 1997 - looks at only 9 loci or 18 alleles

Hope that helps

 

[silver tongue]

gday LM
regarding question 2, arthur greer was charged with the murder of sharon mason a14 yr old schoolgirl in 1986, she was found in 1992 underneath a shed floor behind a shop greer was leasing in mosmanpark which is about 2miles from claremont . there is now speculation this is another stuff up by wa police and greer is innocent

 

[Laymaker]

Bart - Thank you for the explanation of CBV and the Claremont scene.

What is your biggest takeaway from the 'bashing' case? What do you think the CSKs method/weapon of striking was in the JR/SS/CG crimes? Do you really think that WAPOL doesn't have DNA and LW is a viable suspect?

J35 - I will look into this tool you provided. What are your thoughts about DNA in the CSK case?

Silver Tongue - What makes you think that the case you mentioned is related to the CSK? Do you have any related articles?

 

[silver tongue]

could have nothing at all to do with the CSK
just the location really and a lot of murderers and abductions have been carried out on a 5 km stretch of stirling hwy, with all due respect this is perth not the usa back in the early 90s perth had just over 1.25 million people and murder was big news the fact that SM was found along this 5 km stretch is at best strange this webpage should explain
missingandmurderedaustralia.blogspot.com/.../claremont-timeline.html

 

[Bartholemeus]

What is your biggest takeaway from the 'bashing' case?

Unsure because there is very little info but;

The CSK's sweet spot seemed to be on the perimeter of Claremont Town Centre - that being Stirling Rd, Stirling Hwy, Leura Ave and Gugeri St. Whilst the bashing was maybe 50m from the Hwy, it was close to the centre of Claremont. Couple that with the Subway attempt and I'm leaning towards 2 separate sex attackers being active in the area. The subway report said the attacker tried to rape the victim rather that put her in a car? Both of these are potentially removed from the CSK's MO. Maybe the article is flawed (subway one)? Maybe the CSK was trying different methods of abductions to learn which one/s work best?

And if there's 2 separate attackers how do we explain the 2 taxi attacks? 3 different attackers working the same patch at thae same time? Seems far fetched. Is the taxi guy the CSK and changed from taxi to civi car because he changed jobs?

So many questions.

What do you think the CSKs method/weapon of striking was in the JR/SS/CG crimes?

No idea. Too many pros and cons with both the pick-up and abduction theories. I slightly lean towards pick-up. If CG was so street smart then why was she even walking alone let alone talking to someone in a car?

Do you really think that WAPOL doesn't have DNA and LW is a viable suspect?

On DNA - open minded but sit 55% no DNA, 45% DNA.Macro haven't confirmed it. Only one media outlet say they know. TBH i put my face in my palm every time some claims police definitely have DNA. We simply don't know for sure and there's plenty about the story that doesn't add up.

I would love to hear from people as to why they think it's 100% because it simply isn't until we know more.

On LW - if they have DNA then he gets rules out immediately. If they don't have DNA then he's still the best match. The favourite doesn't always win the cup/derby/ stakes but he's still the best fit.

I've chopped and changed throughout this case, been open to looking at most people, and this guy still fits as good as any until i can be convinced there is DNA.

I think the people claiming there is definitely DNA should clarify what their reason for thinking this is.

 

[elastic]

Unsure because there is very little info but;

The CSK's sweet spot seemed to be on the perimeter of Claremont Town Centre - that being Stirling Rd, Stirling Hwy, Leura Ave and Gugeri St. Whilst the bashing was maybe 50m from the Hwy, it was close to the centre of Claremont. Couple that with the Subway attempt and I'm leaning towards 2 separate sex attackers being active in the area. The subway report said the attacker tried to rape the victim rather that put her in a car? Both of these are potentially removed from the CSK's MO. Maybe the article is flawed (subway one)? Maybe the CSK was trying different methods of abductions to learn which one/s work best?

And if there's 2 separate attackers how do we explain the 2 taxi attacks? 3 different attackers working the same patch at thae same time? Seems far fetched. Is the taxi guy the CSK and changed from taxi to civi car because he changed jobs?

So many questions.

No idea. Too many pros and cons with both the pick-up and abduction theories. I slightly lean towards pick-up. If CG was so street smart then why was she even walking alone let alone talking to someone in a car?

On DNA - open minded but sit 55% no DNA, 45% DNA.Macro haven't confirmed it. Only one media outlet say they know. TBH i put my face in my palm every time some claims police definitely have DNA. We simply don't know for sure and there's plenty about the story that doesn't add up.

I would love to hear from people as to why they think it's 100% because it simply isn't until we know more.

On LW - if they have DNA then he gets rules out immediately. If they don't have DNA then he's still the best match. The favourite doesn't always win the cup/derby/ stakes but he's still the best fit.

I've chopped and changed throughout this case, been open to looking at most people, and this guy still fits as good as any until i can be convinced there is DNA.

I think the people claiming there is definitely DNA should clarify what their reason for thinking this is.

I really hope that if they did find DNA from Karrakatta then it better be from the semen, or the sexual assault somehow, not from the rest of the body, especially in the areas where the washing line was used to tie the victim up. If they have the DNA from the washing line then it may be from some poor old lady that used to hang T-Shirts out to dry after being used with screen printing residue and DNA left on the line from some random lady that will never commit a crime. Lets hope our keystone cops havent jumped the gun and made a determination of some really dodgy evidence.

If the same washing line was used for atleast one of the Claremont victims then the same DNA could have been transfered in partial amounts. The whole DNA thing could be a red herring.

If they took the DNA from some semen or blood residue then you could be pretty sure of the partial match. Especially if oir LCN specialist (godfather in the UK of the science) has improved the partial profile to a probable or near certain match recently. Recently enough to leak the news. Theu could be at the very early stages of comparing DNA due to the uncertainty of the partial DNA untill our LCN specialist has enhanced it recently, the announcement this specialist was analysing the DNA was middle to early 2015.

I think most of the CSK victims were probably surprise choked from behind from someone waiting in an unseen spot when the victim walked passed. The victim probably walked passed and was within metres of the perpetrator. If this was the case a surprise choke hold (victim is deadly silent during a technique like this, certainly not capable of screaming in an upright choke hold where the perpetrator has lifted her off the ground by the neck. Then wrapping them in the washing line he has hidden somewhre and reuses so no more leads can be followed back to himself , which may improve his chances of being captured.

The victims were then more than likely thrown into the back seats/boots of the VS Commodore or 'Panel Van' (not the misreported commercial 'Van', i think they mean commercial 'Panel Van' if anything ot just Panel Van) and dumped at dump sites. If they were still alive at the dump sites I think he would have re attempted to choke them and kill them in a match more personal way, eg whilst looking into their eyes.

I thino Sarah was probably hidden if she was the first escalated kill and maybe becausr he was still transitioning from rape to possibly rape and violence (Karrakatta) then rape and kill (Sarah Spiers) then the last two known victims were just killed and dumped in the open so he didnt stick around burying someone in thr open. He may have been close to being seen when he burried Sarah Spiers because he changed immediately to dump and run.

Lets hope the Police are on the right track with the DNA.

 

[elastic]

Alot of creeps live around the Western Suburbs, we are not talking usually about the rich affluent folk, but the people that bought in when the land was cheap and the city was alot smaller, or inherited from parents who have passed. Lots and lots of them in those suburbs. Very creepy part of Perth so having multiple sex attackers working around a night club where vulnerable girls may be walking home alone would not be a surprise.

Another thing about Sarah Spiers is if she was raped she probably had enough DNA from semen or blood to get a complete profile, another reason why she may have been burried.

If the DNA was from an innocent persons cloths line that just happened to hang up and dry used clothes that just happened to have been screen printed by such a random person leaving screen printing residue from not being washed enough and DNA from that random person then that would be a travesty to the case. All the DNA evidence is just misleading if that were the case. I would think a rapist turned murderer would have used gloves when undertaking the kill or handling the washing line, he would be able to pull much harder and use a basic knot to tie them. That would render the victim totally incapacitated after the 'blitz attack' and most of all it wouldnt leave DNA!

 

[silver tongue]

there is a now a long list of coldcase crimes being solved through recent advances in dna technology , patrick cumeagain a violent dangerous rapist has just been charged with the rape of a 13 yr old girl which took place 20 years ago in geraldton
the karra rape victim ran straight to the hospital
there is also a crime scene ,if you had to makeup a perfect scenario for collecting dna the karra rape would fit the bill, as for all the other suspects LW, MD and the likes if this was a race\ cup\ derby \stakes i think they all may have been scratched at the barriers

 

[Sutton]

...TBH i put my face in my palm every time some claims police definitely have DNA. We simply don't know for sure and there's plenty about the story that doesn't add up.

I would love to hear from people as to why they think it's 100% because it simply isn't until we know more.
...
I think the people claiming there is definitely DNA should clarify what their reason for thinking this is.

Snipped. I believe police have DNA because:

1. Police took DNA samples from potential POIs from the very beginning.
IMO, they had to have had something--probably degraded or too small of a sample for 1996 technology.

2. I think Bret Christian is a very reliable source. I don't think he'd risk his reputation to print speculation as fact. He may use creative wording if he is working with police, but I don't believe he is printing misinformation.

3. Karrakatta went to the hospital immediately. She may be the only DNA source and she could, of course, be linked to the other victims another way.

I don't know that police have DNA. This is just my firm belief. I am still open to theories that oppose DNA, if the other things connecting the suspect make sense.

 

[Bartholemeus]

I too don't believe for a second that BC would fabricate a story about this. But we know its not uncommon practice in cases like this for police to push out false information.

BC claimed there is a DNA match between Karra victim and CG. To get a 1 on 1 match we're probably talking an almost full profile.

So I'm curious as to why people have ruled out LW but gone into over drive on Judo?

I haven't ruled out either yet and all i see is a clear case of confirmation bias - intreting the same information differently depending on who their favoured POI is.

 

[Sutton]

...So I'm curious as to why people have ruled out LW but gone into over drive on Judo?

I haven't ruled out either yet and all i see is a clear case of confirmation bias - intreting the same information differently depending on who their favoured POI is.

I never believed LW was good for the CSK. He is just too different from any serial killer I've ever seen. That's just MO, I have not personally spoken to any serial murderers. He is the exact opposite of the person who could commit these crimes. IMO.

I don't know about JM. I had kind of dismissed him until other posters repeatedly shut the conversation down.

Yes, we all suffer from confirmation bias at times.

 

[elastic]

I never believed LW was good for the CSK. He is just too different from any serial killer I've ever seen. That's just MO, I have not personally spoken to any serial murderers. He is the exact opposite of the person who could commit these crimes. IMO.

I don't know about JM. I had kind of dismissed him until other posters repeatedly shut the conversation down.

Yes, we all suffer from confirmation bias at times.

No one knows if SD/Judoman is the Martial Arts Practitioner. We call him Judoman but the Police have never confirmed this unfortunately. What is odd is how Judoman has never denied it, and plays it up on his facebook, <modsnip>
He is a very low belt in Judo given how long he has practiced. He must have done other forms of martial arts, especially as a child when its more common.

It looks like he has trained under about 4 different Judo gyms so maybe they all have different belts so he has never mastered one brand of Judo? That would explain why he is a practitioner.

 

[Bartholemeus]

No one knows if SD/Judoman is the Martial Arts Practitioner. We call him Judoman but the Police have never confirmed this unfortunately. What is odd is how Judoman has never denied it, and plays it up on his facebook, <modsnip>
He is a very low belt in Judo given how long he has practiced. He must have done other forms of martial arts, especially as a child when its more common.

It looks like he has trained under about 4 different Judo gyms so maybe they all have different belts so he has never mastered one brand of Judo? That would explain why he is a practitioner.

So first you say Noel's mates are hobos.

Now you're saying Judo never achieved much (a $3m house in Claremont says different) and that he is low level martial arts.

As far as i can see the highest ranking in Australia is 6th Dan. There's one of these. There's one 5th Dan and about five or six 4th Dans. Judo man is a 4th Dan. He also won national titles in his early 20s and is highly respected in Judo circles from what I can see.

<modsnip>

 

[silver tongue]

in 2008 a pyschic task force came to perth with the sole purpose of identifieing the CSK
they put on a show and made a lot of predictions [and a lot of cash] one prediction was the CSK was in to racing cars and speedway, straight away i thought of alfred gerard eravellys the scarborough rapist who is known to be a racing car enthusiast,i my self personally dont believe in all that stuff but if it turns out eravellys is the CSK i might just change my mind

 

[Mel 1303]

I only post in here infrequently, due to work, but I follow fairly closely. Have a rare day off today.

I am not convinced there is DNA evidence, particularly from CG or JR. They were left out in the open for such a long time, and DNA testing and analysis was no where near as sophisticated as it is now. There may well be DNA evidence from Karrakatta, but that is not a certainty. When the link between Karrakatta and the CSK was first publicly revealed, the wording was "forensic link". Talk of DNA came after. My immediate thought at the time involved the washing line, and the first question to my mind was "were their wrists bound?". I would speculate that the wholesale collection of DNA was a desperate attempt to gather evidence in a case that didn't have a lot of clues. Three young women were already gone- police may have been hopeful of obtaining a DNA sample on a 4th victim, if the body was found sooner. Thankfully there has not been a 4th victim, that we know of.

JM does seem to fit the description of the Martial Arts practitioner described on the CIA doco, but I am on the fence. Is he of an English background? I have always had a few questions over the doctor mentioned in DM's book. Wealthy, English, into martial arts.... the age seems wrong, but why was he in the book?

 

[grantepo]

Did anybody ever come across that Facebook page "I am not the Claremont Serial Killer, I'm A_______ D______. ? It was a few years back.

 

[silver tongue]

cant say i have gran care to elaborate?
reg the phychic forum post #839 i read about it last night ,it is old news but for anybody who hasnt visited this old blog then i recommend a visit to [my death space/sarahspiers]

 

[CSK?]

I once had a psychic experience (my g/f's idea) the psychic passed on messages from my deceased father, he wished he could fish with me again, that caught my attention because he loved to fish, he was with someone who's first name started with S, (his sister was named Susan) and a bunch of other stuff, it really would have been convincing if not for the fact my father was very much alive.

No psychic in the history of the universe has ever solved a murder case, they are like leaches that latch on to infamous investigations for fame and/or profit.

They give such broad information than can be twisted to suit events. I'm guessing with my stats but I'd say at least 40% of males aged between 18 - 65 have some level of interest in speed way racing, or racing in general, all these 'psychics' do is make very good calculated guesses based from information they have read or found out by talking to people or reading body language.

Psychic ability does not exist.

 

[Mel 1303]

Did anybody ever come across that Facebook page "I am not the Claremont Serial Killer, I'm A_______ D______. ? It was a few years back.

Nope, did not see that one. Anything of interest posted on there?

 

[grantepo]

There was nothing at all on it. His full name was posted. I put in the blanks.