Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996 - 1997, Perth, Western Australia - #5

[Bartholemeus]

Hey there,

I just signed up after recently reading The Devil's Garden, I've read/skimmed some of the threads about this case and think I have some understanding of people's general theories. I haven't got a clue who did it, but I am certain it can't be all the POI's.

I was thinking about known facts and maybe I am wrong, but from what I can tell the main things we know are 3 women went missing after being out in Claremont, 2 of whose bodies were found at opposing ends of Perth. The killer must have had access to a car of some descrption.

One thing in the book I found interesting was geographical profiling for serial crime. I did some googling and found there is quite a lot about some of the techniques and formulas they use. One such paper is http://www.math.washington.edu/~morrow/mcm/7272.pdf. It discusses 3 methods and a hybrid which I wanted to check out. To summarise they are:

1. Great Circle - take the 2 furthest crime points, find the middle and draw a circle. The idea is the criminal will live within the circle..

2. Centrography - Take the mean of the x coords and y coords of each crime to find the centre of mass for the crimes. However this centre does not take into account that there is often a buffer zone betweeen where a criminal lives and where they operate.

3. Rossmo’s Formula - Criminals won't travel too far to commit crime. There is a buffer zone around criminals residence where crimes are less likely be committed. Probabilty of living based on grid of crimes. I don't really understand the maths.

4. Gaussian Rossmooth - Hybrid of Rossmo's formula - I definitely don't understand this..

Rossmo's Formula requires 5 crimes before it should be used. Unfortunately more crimes means more data points. If we include Claremont and the cemetary rape (was it really CSK?), you could say we had 5 crimes or 3 abductions plus two body sites is 5 too, but since I don't understand the maths........

I don't know the exact loaction of the sites Jane and Ciara were found, nor do we know exactly where they "went missing" so I have taken approximate locations based on what I have read.

Jane -32.264423 115.859806
Ciara -31.584123 115.648691
Claremont -31.982219 115.781233

And I did a hybrid of Great Circle, Centrography and wanted to take into account a buffer zone based on the above 3 points.

The sites Jane and Ciara were found in is 78km apart as the crow flies. This mid point is on west coast highway 71 (WCH) about 200 meters north of The Blvd. The distance between sites by road of an example route via WCH is approx 92.6km. Which is give or take about 101 mins driving according to google maps. The halfway by this route is on WCH somewhere near Rochdale Road. The mean (centrography) of claremont Jane and Ciara is on WCH a couple of hundred meters south of Oceanic Drive.

I've plotted these points here: https://www.mapcustomizer.com/map/claremontlocations

And I got out my compass out and did the following:

I originally added in a route via mitchell freeway as google said it was quicker, but after thinking about it, would you really drive into the city after abducting someone, if you didn't have to? I think you would drive carefully at the speed limit on moderately used roads and avoid points of possible congestion (even in the middle of the night).

Taking into account a buffer zone, I wonder if the CSK lives north of City Beach in the 6km radius of the midpoint between Jane and Ciara. (yeah I know, it may as well be half of perth....)

Since, I've just signed up, I haven't been able to see the upload images etc, so if someone has already post this type of thing and I have missed it, I apologise. I found it an interesting exercise nonetheless.

I have some questions;

1. Why a 39km radius and a 45km radius of dump sites? How did you choose these 2 distances?
2. Should it be from the dump site or the abduction site or the kill site?

I'm going to go have a look at those theories to see if I can make anything out of them.

On City Beach - maybe, but back then and even now, although the area is close to Claremont, they're apart. The West Coast Hwy extension wasn't built until the late 80s and before that there was even more of a gap. Basically the areas aren't connected by public transport. The whole feel of the areas is different. The only City Beachers who socialised in Claremont would have been the handful of private schoolers who had friends in the Claremont area. My gut feel is the CSK was more local. Subiaco to Mosman Park.

On the distance between dump sites - I think this is more about the CSK choosing a place on the fringe of the city rather than a geographical distance from his residence. I do however think the locations suggest he is central - roughly equidistant north and south, but western suburbs rather than eastern suburbs. I think if he lived North of City Beach he would have been more inclined to dump all girls North, North East etc.

 

[c4rtm4n]

I have some questions;

1. Why a 39km radius and a 45km radius of dump sites? How did you choose these 2 distances?
2. Should it be from the dump site or the abduction site or the kill site?

1. 39km radius because that is halfway as the crow flies between the 2 dump sites. 45 kms because I originally thought the distance by road was approx 90kms, turns out it is closer to 93km.
2. We don't know the kill site(s) or the precise abduction sites for that matter. First (maybe second time) drive for an hour south from home, dump go home. Jane's body found, as Peter K says above, the csk now dumps somewhere else the other way, which still has to be isolated, Yanchep is too built up so he dumps earlier. Thats why I wonder if the CSK lived further north from the centre of mass.

I agree about your point about the city fringe, but he could have gone further each way if he wanted to. Why only go that far? Time, distance knowledge of the area?

 

[c4rtm4n]

Hey Peter,

Thanks for your welcome amd reply. Would you mind posting the coordinates of the disposal sites so I can check them out on a map?

In relation to the cemetery, yeah if they are the same offender it would definitely pull the anchor point closer towards it.

 

[Bartholemeus]

I agree about your point about the city fringe, but he could have gone further each way if he wanted to. Why only go that far? Time, distance knowledge of the area?

I have theorised before and it's something similar to "Rational Choice Theory" on the below link;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_profiling

I think it's a combination between;

a. I only have x amount of time before day light and need to dump the body (or get home) by then
b. I need to dump the body in a spot where it will stay undiscovered for the longest time possible
c. The longer I drive for the greater risk of being randomly stopped and searched by police

I think he weighed this three things up, got out his UBD and went for drive and did some recon and then pre-selected his dump zones. I don't necessarily believe the CSK had to have had prior knowledge of the areas (outside his recon missions).

 

[Peter Kurten]

Hey Peter,

Thanks for your welcome amd reply. Would you mind posting the coordinates of the disposal sites so I can check them out on a map?

In relation to the cemetery, yeah if they are the same offender it would definitely pull the anchor point closer towards it.

No problems.

Ciara Glennon = -31.582257, 115.675243

Jane Rimmer = -32.272343, 115.858784

 

[Frankie1972]

There's been a lot of media speculation over the last 2 years. Some of that seems to contradict (i.e. police have fibres from JR matching a specific new model commodore which was witnessed by 3 people at a bus stop, but on the other hand police think it was a blitz attack). Noel Coward was asked for DNA before he passed and I have unconfirmed reports that Macro are still taking DNA.

MAP and NSP (know sexual pervert) were mentioned on CIA but the media have never mentioned them since.

Taxi is still the most likely explanation as to how the girls were abducted but police are seemingly at a dead end with this line of inquiry.

There's a lot of contradictions throughout this case. It's fascinating and probably why it gets a lot of interest.

you say 3 guys at the bus stop witness the commodore. That's not true, the CIS doco talked a load of ****.

 

[BenJones84]

Has anyone looked into the Radian Angle Theory that the Zodiac used? I mean... if you used the killers house as a starting point.. then took an angle from CG to Julie Cutler`s car location.. could that possibly equal 57.2958 degrees???

 

[Bartholemeus]

you say 3 guys at the bus stop witness the commodore. That's not true, the CIS doco talked a load of ****.

At this stage I'm open minded but let's call a spade a spade here - there's some major flaws in your claims. Let's go through them;

1. You claim you were at the bus stop with 2 mates. You and one mate didn't see anything and the other mate (let's refer to him as "old mate") said he saw something. I think you clarified that it's not as if you were looking in the other direction and strongly hinted old mate was making stuff up

2. You said CG walked down a hill towards CCGS. There is no hill.

3. You claimed a while later (after the night but way before LW was made a public POI) that you had a dream that you saw CG walk past CCGS and a guy appear from the bushes with a knife. You said this guy had a mole on his face and when LW's image was released publicly that you then recognised the guy in your dream to be LW.

4. Even though you were there on the night CG was abducted and was the last known person to see her before she was abducted, and had been interviewed by police regularly, you were only recently aware of the CIA documentary. When the JR footage was released that coincided with the CIA episode it was highly publicised. How could have you missed it?


I haven't ruled your story out yet but you have to admit there are some major flaws with it.

Out of interest - how did you get home that night? You lived in the northern suburbs at the time, right?

 

[Bartholemeus]

Has anyone looked into the Radian Angle Theory that the Zodiac used? I mean... if you used the killers house as a starting point.. then took an angle from CG to Julie Cutler`s car location.. could that possibly equal 57.2958 degrees???

I had a look at some of the theories in c4rtm4n's link. Complex and will take some time to work out. Even some of the simple stuff such as whether it works for both the crime location and dump location are not clear without reading through the whole document. They seem to be talking about crime location and then use an example of The Yorkshire Ripper's body dump sites.

One immediate issue I see is we don't know how many crimes are the CSK. We know of 3 for sure, but unsure if there are others, and if so, which one. Another issue is that the dump sites to me look like they have been rationally determined. While I do think one dump on southern outskirts and one on northern suggests the CSK is more likely to live somewhere in the middle - I don't think a guy who lives in Thornley would go dump a body north after JR. I think they'd go further out, or south west etc. Even though somewhere around Floreat is equidistant between the two sites, Claremont and the surrounds are not far off. Another issue is these theories use calculus based algorithms that require input data specific to the location and crimes - probably data that we don't have.

I'll probably have a bit more of a look at it by my gut feel is;

1. The CSK is a hunter and Claremont is his patch. He has some sort of mental link to Claremont where he has to take girls from this area.
2. There's a buffer zone but it is small. He lives within 5kms
3. The dump sites are chosen rationally based on time before sunrise, maximising time until discovery and minimising time at risk transporting the bodies.

I did see an article where there is access to a US geo-location service for predicting serial criminals' location. But only allows US addresses. It would be great if there were a local one.



On Radian Angle Theory - can you please elaborate on that? Are you talking copy cat type stuff?

 

[BenJones84]

The dump sites are CLEARLY not random. For ******s sake, if you draw a line from one to the other, it bisects the Continental hotel... hardly a coincidence. The dump sites were very carefully pre-planned & measured on a paper map before the kills. This is pre-internet people...There were not many people who were THAT into orienteering. Almost certainly someone with at least basic military training. The killer is smart, 140-150 IQ and has an ego... the bodys being placed in those locations is a message of some sort. I mean honestly, can you imagine LW or JM knowing how to read a compass bearing?

 

[Frankie1972]

At this stage I'm open minded but let's call a spade a spade here - there's some major flaws in your claims. Let's go through them;

1. You claim you were at the bus stop with 2 mates. You and one mate didn't see anything and the other mate (let's refer to him as "old mate") said he saw something. I think you clarified that it's not as if you were looking in the other direction and strongly hinted old mate was making stuff up

2. You said CG walked down a hill towards CCGS. There is no hill.

3. You claimed a while later (after the night but way before LW was made a public POI) that you had a dream that you saw CG walk past CCGS and a guy appear from the bushes with a knife. You said this guy had a mole on his face and when LW's image was released publicly that you then recognised the guy in your dream to be LW.

4. Even though you were there on the night CG was abducted and was the last known person to see her before she was abducted, and had been interviewed by police regularly, you were only recently aware of the CIA documentary. When the JR footage was released that coincided with the CIA episode it was highly publicised. How could have you missed it?


I haven't ruled your story out yet but you have to admit there are some major flaws with it.

Out of interest - how did you get home that night? You lived in the northern suburbs at the time, right?

yes old mate drove in to Claremont that night and then taxi home.we pick up old mate car the next day.
In 2011 I got my first computer that's why I had not seen the CIA doco.
to me it looked like it was down hill remember it's been 20 years.

 

[Bartholemeus]

The dump sites are CLEARLY not random. For ******s sake, if you draw a line from one to the other, it bisects the Continental hotel... hardly a coincidence. The dump sites were very carefully pre-planned & measured on a paper map before the kills. This is pre-internet people...There were not many people who were THAT into orienteering. Almost certainly someone with at least basic military training. The killer is smart, 140-150 IQ and has an ego... the bodys being placed in those locations is a message of some sort. I mean honestly, can you imagine LW or JM knowing how to read a compass bearing?

Firstly. you need to calm your farm.

Secondly, we are not talking about randomness of dump sites. We are talking about geo-location profiling. Seeing if there is a way to determine where the CSK might live relative to either the crime sites or dump sites. No one has said anything about random. In fact, I have previous opined that I think it's too much of a coincidence for the line between the two to go through the Conti. No one in this discussion has mentioned anything about randomness.

Also;

It would not be hard to get a map, pencil and ruler and draw a line from JR site, through The Conti, and then choose a dump site that fits his purpose (approximately x amount of time to drive to, reasonably isolated but not too far to unnecessarily risk a random pull over and search.

It is quite possible the CSK did this to lead investigators in the wrong direction. Create a smoke screen around angles and distances to lead them away from where SS is.

Both LW and JM would be able to use a compass. Most people learn to use one in primary school.

 

[Bartholemeus]

Yep I said that to Barth in a PM. Then Bartho came out & said the CSK went to a meth house. When they weren`t operating in the mid 90`s. That blew away his credibility in one comment. Most names are a from a nut. In fact 90 % are her. This has gone on since 2008 from the first blog. Making comments they knew one of the girls, or they were there at Claremont on the nights. They went to the same school. Or they were at a bus stop. She keeps putting herself in this case under so many names. I can`t be stuffed going over this again.

1. It's Bart. Not Barth or Bartho.
2. The meth house comment was a a subtle stab at someone in particular suggesting they were on drugs. It was a direct response to yet another ridiculous theory. Sure, it was subtle but I have no history of making ridiculous statements.
3. As for credibility, I have never made a statement that is not true. I have never pretended I know something when I don't. I have only ever suggested a few outside the square theories but have been clear that they are absolute long shots. I can't say the same about yourself and I don't think anyone else would back you up either.

 

[Bartholemeus]

yes old mate drove in to Claremont that night and then taxi home.we pick up old mate car the next day.
In 2011 I got my first computer that's why I had not seen the CIA doco.
to me it looked like it was down hill remember it's been 20 years.

Apologies for going over old ground but;

1. What was the sequence of events the next day?
2. When did you realise that the girl you saw walking along the highway had been abducted?
3. How long was the gap in between that night and speaking with police?
4. Did you approach police? All as a group? Or separately? If so, who went first?
5. Did they interview you as a group, separately, or both?
6. Did they try any techniques such as hypnosis?
7. So you told police you saw nothing and would have seen if anything happened?
8. And old mate said he saw CG talking to someone in a white car?
9. Have you ever spoken to old mate and said, "Hey old mate, I'm pretty sure I didn't see anything, are you sure you saw something?"
10. What about the mate 2? What does he think? AFAIR he also didn't see anything. Have you spoken to him about the discrepancy in what you two saw and what old mate said he saw?
11. On how many occasions did police (macro or whatever incarnation) talk to you?
12. Have they asked for your DNA?
13. Are you still in contact with mate 2 and old mate?

 

[c4rtm4n]

Is there a reliable public source for the coordinates/location of where the bodies were found? If those coordinates are correct, the line does go through continental hotel. Which hardly seems random as Benjones84 has said. But I agree with Bartholemeus that with a map, ruler and a pencil and a bit of planning, it wouldn't really take a genius to do it.

Is Frankie1972 the same as the one in BF thread? Over there Frankie says that his mate said " that a car stop and was talking to her." Where as here Frankie1972 says there was no car and CIA was BS?

 

[Bartholemeus]

Is there a reliable public source for the coordinates/location of where the bodies were found? If those coordinates are correct, the line does go through continental hotel. Which hardly seems random as Benjones84 has said. But I agree with Bartholemeus that with a map, ruler and a pencil and a bit of planning, it wouldn't really take a genius to do it.

Is Frankie1972 the same as the one in BF thread? Over there Frankie says that his mate said " that a car stop and was talking to her." Where as here Frankie1972 says there was no car and CIA was BS?

It's previously been confirmed that the line runs right through The Conti. On one hand unlikely to be a coincidence but on the other hand doesn't lead us any closer to the killer. I can't confirm but a 90 degree trajectory from the Conti goes through Parkerville or somewhere near. Can anywhere provide a map showing exactly where it goes?

 

[c4rtm4n]

oh right, I don't know how I missed that it was confimed about cutting through The Conti. I find that very interesting.

Here is a perpendicular line from The Conti.

This made me remember a computer game I played when I was a kid. An adventure game called Police Quest 3. One of the puzzles involved plotting crimes which formed the shape of, yep you guessed it, a pentagram... A trip down memory lane.....

As an aside, I thought everyone involved in the case including witnesses were forced to sign NDAs, so if you were really a witness you shouldn't be posting anything here.

 

[Sillybilly]

Please do not discuss other members on the board. It is against TOS.

If you have a concern about another poster, use the Alert feature so that any problem is brought to the attention of Mods/Admin.

:wave:

 

[Bartholemeus]

oh right, I don't know how I missed that it was confimed about cutting through The Conti. I find that very interesting.

This made me remember a computer game I played when I was a kid. An adventure game called Police Quest 3. One of the puzzles involved plotting crimes which formed the shape of, yep you guessed it, a pentagram... A trip down memory lane.....

As an aside, I thought everyone involved in the case including witnesses were forced to sign NDAs, so if you were really a witness you shouldn't be posting anything here.

One theory was; JR South, CG North, SS East and JC west.

Unsure if JC was a CSK victim but that case wasn't investigated enough. It could be possible the car was dumped and then someone else dumped it in the surf.

 

[Frankie1972]

Is there a reliable public source for the coordinates/location of where the bodies were found? If those coordinates are correct, the line does go through continental hotel. Which hardly seems random as Benjones84 has said. But I agree with Bartholemeus that with a map, ruler and a pencil and a bit of planning, it wouldn't really take a genius to do it.

Is Frankie1972 the same as the one in BF thread? Over there Frankie says that his mate said " that a car stop and was talking to her." Where as here Frankie1972 says there was no car and CIA was BS?

show me were I said that a car stop and was talking to her. I have talked to old mate before by phone to confirmed no car has stop that night. He said a car slow down