Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - #10

[ozazure]

Like a lot of us, I have been going over the timeline of the disappearance up until the police arrive at 11.06am, over and over in my head. By the time that search was called, that crime scene must have been have been obliterated. Can't help thinking that for an opportunistic abduction, the perp has had an incredible amount of good luck on their side. In the spur of the moment people always make mistakes and can't cover for things they didn't take into account when being impulsive. Also if it was that impulsive I can't help but think of a younger person as taking such a risk. If it was planned by the POI, it is still too much risk,as he was expected and at some stage a spotlight would surely be shone on him. It does not make sense to me that the POI acted impulsively at a job he attended, abducted and disposed of a child and had an alibi for the next couple of hours that the police have not been able to break with anything concrete in 8 months. It is also high risk to be laying in wait for the opportunity to abduct a child. The risk of being seen and identified is huge unless you are supposed to be in that environment, like a neighbour or closer. I don't mean to offend anyone and BS may well be found guilty of the charges against him but the only thing that makes sense to me in this case is that whoever is responsible for WT's disappearance is closer to home.

A major risk for criminal behaviour is impulse control and poor risk assessment, it's not all cool calculated rational decision making. I also think there is a fine line between planning an abduction and fantasising about an abduction, and one can have no conscious commitment to doing it but have rehearsed it in their mind many times.

Have you ever been on a diet and ruminated over having a little cheat? One day you drive by McDonalds on the way home and think mmm, I'd love a sundae, but your resolve is strong. A week later you have a **** day at work, and you think about stopping for the sundae, but don't. You've promised your mate, and you are dieting together, you don't want to let them down. But every day you drive past Maccas and many days think about having that sundae. You think about how you can go on an extra walk to compensate. Skip lunch. How you can throw the tub in the neighbour's bin. Oh, today when you kissed them hello they noticed you had fresh coffee breath, better remember to fix that if you ever have that sundae. One day you see you have $3 in the console, the perfect amount for a sundae. You pull in but your mate rings, so you pull out and keep driving. You battle temptation watching a work mate eat sundaes. The adverts on tv. You don't do it. But one day you are starving because you worked through lunch, you have cash, your mate isn't home and they've left some of their diet sugar-free breath mints in the car. Before you know it you are scoffing that sundae and putting your post sundae "plan" into action. You'd thought about it and talked yourself out of it dozens of times but eventually opportunity overwhelms your self will. You have post sundae plans to fall back on from all the times you've not done it. Are they perfect plans? Probably not, there's lots of ways to get caught out, but it's done now.

 

[sosocurious]

Yes the media did a great job of dropping small bits of information like that for maximum creepy connotations.

If they found one skerrick of evidence under his house then he'd of been arrested earlier in relation to WT, I'd imagine?

Am waiting for the facts in court. After all this it will be a relief to know what really is known and not known. And we can finally judge BS with some authentic basis, either way.

I am looking forward to court as well Butterstick.
Given no one has been charged in regard to William disappearing, I am assuming you mean the historical charges.

and Magistrate Thomas Hodgson said "it is a reasonably strong prosecution case" with a "custodial sentence likely".

http://www.portnews.com.au/story/3030920/bill-spedding-refused-bail/

 

[zookeeperkylie]

Wish I knew how to link articles onto posts. Just read an article from The Daily Telegraph 22 January 2015. In it, it talked about BS facebook post, " Today, somebody is keeping a secret....." I always thought that he was supposed to have written that quote. When I read the article, the way I understood it was that he didn't write that statement but posted a link to a photo of WT with that quote attached to it. He then posted a comment, something to the effect of "don't give up looking." That for me changes my interpretation of that post.

Yes BS did not write the "Today somebody is keeping a secret..." post he just forwarded it.

 

[zookeeperkylie]

Like a lot of us, I have been going over the timeline of the disappearance up until the police arrive at 11.06am, over and over in my head. By the time that search was called, that crime scene must have been have been obliterated. Can't help thinking that for an opportunistic abduction, the perp has had an incredible amount of good luck on their side. In the spur of the moment people always make mistakes and can't cover for things they didn't take into account when being impulsive. Also if it was that impulsive I can't help but think of a younger person as taking such a risk. If it was planned by the POI, it is still too much risk,as he was expected and at some stage a spotlight would surely be shone on him. It does not make sense to me that the POI acted impulsively at a job he attended, abducted and disposed of a child and had an alibi for the next couple of hours that the police have not been able to break with anything concrete in 8 months. It is also high risk to be laying in wait for the opportunity to abduct a child. The risk of being seen and identified is huge unless you are supposed to be in that environment, like a neighbour or closer. I don't mean to offend anyone and BS may well be found guilty of the charges against him but the only thing that makes sense to me in this case is that whoever is responsible for WT's disappearance is closer to home.

Sad to say but I have been thinking this for a little while too.

 

[sosocurious]

P: Did you think initially that oh, kids being kids, he’s in a Spiderman uniform, he’s probably just climbing trees?

M: No it’s not William, it’s not William, he doesn’t do that ................... he wouldn’t be in a tree, it’s not in him.

Then the mention of the celery tree in msn.

What is with the tree?



Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/20...-william-tyrrells-parents#wLwyZI8rIFeb4zcU.99

 

[Angeline]

Well do we know for sure that FACS were speaking to BS about the historical claims prior to the media interest- wouldn't that be a police matter?
He was negotiating access ... at the time he was arrested for those historical charges.
Maybe there had possibly been another complaint to FACS of which we are not aware, maybe not. imo
Anyways Colin said The children were this week taken away by Department of Community Services workers and were staying with other relatives and that the kids were removed ONLY to shield them from the intense media scrutiny.
With what has followed it seems to have been a good decision by FACS to shield the children. imo.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...rs-disappearance/story-e6frg6z6-1227195227854

I almost believed that was the only reason, until I saw the words, "Colin said".

 

[butterstick]

I am looking forward to court as well Butterstick.
Given no one has been charged in regard to William disappearing, I am assuming you mean the historical charges.

Yes the historical stuff mostly.

Would be great during their interviews if there was some connection established to WTs disappearance. Assuming the connection exists of course.

 

[sosocurious]

Yes the historical stuff mostly.

Would be great during their interviews if there was some connection established to WTs disappearance. Assuming the connection exists of course.

I hope William is found before BS fronts court on his historical charges.

Police have distanced the missing toddler case with the current charges, insisting in a statement the two were unrelated and investigations into the Tyrrell’s whereabouts were continuing.

I am waiting in anticipation to see if the Victorian investigation is another historical investigation or linked to directly or indirectly to Williams disappearance.

http://www.news.com.au/national/cri...-appear-in-court/story-fns0kb1g-1227316450596

 

[RalphMouth]

Its been a while, so perhaps nothing will happen in the way of further charges involving BS and others involved until after the June mention, just in case it may prejudice the evidence or running of that matter, unless of course something happens to blow the WT case wide open.

 

[leep]

Thankyou sosocurious......of course he is our person of interest and he remains so for me....and I am obsessing, he is an evil creature. :gaah:

Great post lol

 

[leep]

OK i'll be careful if Social Services take two of your kids away from you, and then later you have more kids don't they automatically take them away from you at birth or is that just how it works in the UK and not in AUS.

 

[Puggle]

Is there any possibility that the bush search was announced ahead of time in order to make Bill feel more relaxed that the Police were focusing all their attention elsewhere (a strategic tactic)... and it was really for the sole purpose to see where/what he would do in the time he felt their direct focus was not focused on him specifically??.....The first press release I can find came out at 6.18am on the Monday announcing that a search would take place that day giving the exact location of the search site......Apart from Press reader...all other articles pertaining to what he did earlier in the morning - the day of the search seemed to have been pulled from MSM articles. I was able to remember what I had read though and he had gone to a residence (who's - unknown) followed by a visit to the Mariners Motel and then on to a large ware house (also location unknown)....strangely enough I recall it seemed a big deal for the media to point out the exact time he drove past the search site as police were setting up...what that's all about I have no idea???.......just out of curiosity I wonder if there is anyway Bill could have slipped out the back of the Mariners to these garages....who owns these garages??...is there anyone with a connection to Bill that lives directly behind the Mariners..........just questions and thoughts View attachment 74677

 

[frogwell]

A major risk for criminal behaviour is impulse control and poor risk assessment, it's not all cool calculated rational decision making. I also think there is a fine line between planning an abduction and fantasising about an abduction, and one can have no conscious commitment to doing it but have rehearsed it in their mind many times.

Have you ever been on a diet and ruminated over having a little cheat? One day you drive by McDonalds on the way home and think mmm, I'd love a sundae, but your resolve is strong. A week later you have a **** day at work, and you think about stopping for the sundae, but don't. You've promised your mate, and you are dieting together, you don't want to let them down. But every day you drive past Maccas and many days think about having that sundae. You think about how you can go on an extra walk to compensate. Skip lunch. How you can throw the tub in the neighbour's bin. Oh, today when you kissed them hello they noticed you had fresh coffee breath, better remember to fix that if you ever have that sundae. One day you see you have $3 in the console, the perfect amount for a sundae. You pull in but your mate rings, so you pull out and keep driving. You battle temptation watching a work mate eat sundaes. The adverts on tv. You don't do it. But one day you are starving because you worked through lunch, you have cash, your mate isn't home and they've left some of their diet sugar-free breath mints in the car. Before you know it you are scoffing that sundae and putting your post sundae "plan" into action. You'd thought about it and talked yourself out of it dozens of times but eventually opportunity overwhelms your self will. You have post sundae plans to fall back on from all the times you've not done it. Are they perfect plans? Probably not, there's lots of ways to get caught out, but it's done now.

It's a good argument and I certainly relate to the thinking, but would not his poor impulse control possibly be reflected in a criminal record after 63 years?

 

[krig101]

It's a good argument and I certainly relate to the thinking, but would not his poor impulse control possibly be reflected in a criminal record after 63 years?

Not if no one has come forward. Wouldn't be the first time someone has gotten away with a crime like this for Years.
IMO

 

[wewillgetyou]

Not if no one has come forward. Wouldn't be the first time someone has gotten away with a crime like this for Years.
IMO

Exactly. Rolf Harris is a prime example if I recall correctly.

 

[bearbear]

Mr Spedding was refused bail at Port Macquarie Court House last month and will re-appear in court on August 18. Magistrate Thomas Hodgson told the court the case was “reasonably strong”, with a “custodial sentence likely”.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/05/04/07/15/bill-spedding-s-son-defends-father-in-tyrrell-case

i thought the court case was in june?!!

 

[frogwell]

Sure but with that logic we could apply it to everyone. Most people picked up for abduction and subsequent crimes have records, not for the same crime usually but some type of criminal history if we are looking at impulse control.

Exactly. Rolf Harris is a prime example if I recall correctly.

 

[Manny83]

Mr Spedding was refused bail at Port Macquarie Court House last month and will re-appear in court on August 18. Magistrate Thomas Hodgson told the court the case was “reasonably strong”, with a “custodial sentence likely”.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/05/04/07/15/bill-spedding-s-son-defends-father-in-tyrrell-case

i thought the court case was in june?!!

It was originally for June but since more charges have been laid, it will be later

 

[inspector rex]

Yet the children were not removed by DOCS prior to the media interest and the search of the property, even though they had spoken to Spedding about the historical abuse claims made last year, to DOCS.

Yes, I had that wrong.

According to this article, http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...l-speddings-care/story-fnpn118l-1227198878302, he was interviewed on 9th December 2014 by DOCS "Following a call from CrimeStoppers, the homicide squad turned their attention on Mr Spedding in mid-*December without knowing about the December 9 FACS inquiry." [snip] "The mother who wants her child back said she was informed by FACs in December it was investigating Mr Spedding but would not tell her why. The same month Port Macquarie detectives tried to contact her, she said, adding that she was horrified when she saw news reports of police searching the Speddings’ home.
“I saw Bill Spedding on TV and I rang FACs,” the mother said."

So, according to that report, the children are not full siblings. The report talks about a mother to one of these children.

What was it that the Police knew about him that raised their suspicions, if it was unrelated to the previous accusations of child molestation?

 

[Brightbird]

OK i'll be careful if Social Services take two of your kids away from you, and then later you have more kids don't they automatically take them away from you at birth or is that just how it works in the UK and not in AUS.

Not sure about other states, but not in Victoria. Other kids can be removed, and it doesn't mean future ones will necessarily be. I was just talking to my mum about this last night.