Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - #23

[Makara]

It was called as window reflection forest. Now its blown up more you can see an outline. Easily dismissed by the photographer with the ultra high resolution image.

It was right in the middle the heat. I doubt it is William myself. But it sure as hell is to scale.

Crabby, it's not to scale. I spent ages doing a scale comparison is Photoshop and posted the results here last year. If that was William in the back of Spedding's van as you suggest, he would have been a giant three year old.

 

[richieswan]

Crabby, it's not to scale. I spent ages doing a scale comparison is Photoshop and posted the results here last year. If that was William in the back of Spedding's van as you suggest, he would have been a giant three year old.

Yes a giant. Face in proportion, but not to scale relative to van.

 

[crabstick]

Im sure you are right. There is a lot of distortion. It could be anything, and the cops would have checked the 'high res image'. A 5 year old head is about 200mm long(high). Although the glass could magnify. Van width is 1904mm wheel to wheel O/D

Crabby, it's not to scale. I spent ages doing a scale comparison is Photoshop and posted the results here last year. If that was William in the back of Spedding's van as you suggest, he would have been a giant three year old.

 

[Makara]

Im sure you are right. There is a lot of distortion. It could be anything, and the cops would have checked the 'high res image'. A 5 year old head is about 200mm. Although the glass could magnify.

I posted all of the reference images to this in October of last year Crabstick and you agreed with my summation. Is there any particular reason you're bringing it up again now?

 

[crabstick]

I missed it. Ill search it down. Thanks Makara. I went back through the backend notes and found the image. It keeps haunting me.

I posted all of the reference images to this in October of last year Crabstick and you agreed with my summation. Is there any particular reason you're bringing it up again now?

Speculation, someone took someone to someone, who took someone to someone. Who is live and well somewhere. Wishful thinking. The old fridge scrap Wellington crew. I wonder what low key neighbour did? No doubt police checked he wasnt from Wellington NSW.

Edit: I promise I wont bring it up again

 

[Makara]

I missed it. Ill search it down. Thanks Makara. I went back through the backend notes and found the image. It keeps haunting me.

I've got my images if you want them. Don't let it haunt you Crabby. It's not William you can see in the back of the van. The photo of Spedding's van was taken months after William disappeared and I really don't think that BS would have been driving around with him in the back of his van.

 

[Wozzie]

For some reason I can't get reply to quote to work right now but I was trying to respond to your questions FromGermany.

I didn't think the trip to Kendall was a surprise for Grandma? I am sure the early articles stated that she was well aware they were coming and I thought she also knew when plans had changed and they were coming a day earlier. Didn't she call BS a few days in advance to get the washing machine fixed as she had family coming to stay?

My thoughts on no trip in 6 months is that perhaps grandma had other relatives staying with her for a while after her husband passed which would have broken up the time. Or perhaps she took a trip to visit them even during that period. It isn't a quick trip down the road and for those with a full-time working schedule and children with schooling commitments, it can be hard to get away.

The reasoning behind leaving early may have been as simple as having a cancelled meeting or being able to reschedule an appointment, freeing up the extra day to leave earlier. As a family who does a fair bit of long distance travel with kids I can tell you that an extra day can make a big difference to a trip away so I personally don't see anything odd about that at all.

I am seriously getting the vibe that BS and the rest of the posse are still a major focus and there must be some very good reasons for that. Feels to me as though the giant net surrounding them all has been drawn much closer all of a sudden.

Can't wait for this update!!!

 

[CoverMeCagney]

What's going on? I must have accidentally unsubscribed to this thread and have barely read any of it I don't think. Please would someone fill me in?

 

[crabstick]

Such big driveways, but cars park on the kerb. You would think visitors would park in the drive or off to the side the drive on the lawn? Some drives are 50 metres long.

With tree obscurity to the front elevation. Yeah mate, park on the kerb and walk in. Can you send the bus up the drive.

image: Google Earth

 

[koios]

98 mm opening. Random street photo.

Thanks richieswan. Which state is that in? The maximum pemitted kerb inlet opening height appears to vary state by state, Queensland seems to be further forward on this.

Qudm 2007 permits opening heights to 125mm, a dimension based on voluntary entry and exclusion by head size.
Technical Note 7.05.1 stresses that this does not cover the risk for small children entering the inlet involuntarily, feet first.
In such a case the child may be trapped in the opening or swept through into the stormwater system.
CHILD SAFE OPENING
For a child safe inlet, Qudm requires a 90mm opening to exclude the torso of a 2 year old child.

http://www.maxq.com.au/images/Downloads/Child Safety.pdf

 

[Makara]

I'm very much looking forward to Gary Jubelin's press conference on Monday but my stomach is doing flip-flops wondering what will be revealed! Some of the things that have been buzzing around in my brain are;

1. An announcement that there will be an inquest.
2. Certain POI's are no longer POI's.
3. That police now have a suspect or suspects.
4. That images of William have been found online.
5. That it is now believed that William is deceased.
6. That William's disappearance will now be treated as a cold case.
7. The press conference will just be an update on what the investigator's have been doing over the last 12 months, or at least what can be revealed to the public in regard to the investigation.
8. That the investigation is ongoing and won't cease until William is found.

 

[Eloise]

I've had basically all those same thoughts Makara. It's crazy it's been two years and we know so little more than we knew then. Hopefully this will change that.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[koios]

http://www.dews.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/78129/qudm.pdf chapter 7 page 23

 

[Bohemian]

If you walk from the house downhill along Benaroon you will notice that there are stormwater gullies as far as the junction with Ellendale but not beyond. Therefore the stormwater pipe(s) must pass under gardens on south side of Benaroon and emerge at headwalls in the wooded land to the south of those properties. At a headwall, water emerges from a stormwater pipe to become surface water (probably swamp / intermittent creek). Here are two headwall locations which are unconfirmed but I am reasonably confident about. There are probably others to the west of those two.

What is the best source for historical day by day precipitation for Kendall?

The closest operational weather station to Kendall NSW in 2014 was at Elouera Street, Laurieton (1.7 km away). Rainfall data:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/...tartYear=2014&p_c=-720640513&p_stn_num=060022

Highest recorded rainfall was 24.6 mm on Sunday 14 September 2014.

Note: It is my belief that police would have performed multiple searches, including all bodies of water, within a 1.5 km radius of William's Grandmother's former residence until the last day of the search on Sunday, 21 September 2014; when it shifted focus to an investigation focussing instead on possible 'human intervention' in his disappearance:

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/search-for-william-tyrell-shifts-to-investigation-20140921-10k3f8.html

I get the impression that you are alluding to this case as being one of accidental death. Could you expand on your reasoning in reference to the specific circumstances of William's disappearance and the subsequent Port Macquarie LAC, Missing Persons Squad and Strike Force Rosann investigations please, koios?

 

[koios]

The closest operational weather station to Kendall NSW in 2014 was at Elouera Street, Laurieton (1.7 km away). Rainfall data:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/...tartYear=2014&p_c=-720640513&p_stn_num=060022

Highest recorded rainfall was 24.6 mm on Sunday 14 September 2014.

Note: It is my belief that police would have performed multiple searches, including all bodies of water, within a 1.5 km radius of William's Grandmother's former residence until the last day of the search on Sunday, 21 September 2014; when it shifted focus to an investigation focussing instead on possible 'human intervention' in his disappearance:

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/search-for-william-tyrell-shifts-to-investigation-20140921-10k3f8.html

I get the impression that you are alluding to this case as being one of accidental death. Could you expand on your reasoning in reference to the specific circumstances of William's disappearance and the subsequent Port Macquarie LAC, Missing Persons Squad and Strike Force Rosann investigations please, koios?

Thankyou for the weather data source Bohemian, it is exactly what I was looking for. The first recorded rain after the disappearance was 9mm on 26 Sept (the 24.6mm was on 14 Oct not Sept).
The last recorded rain before the disappearance was in the period from 6 Sept (22mm) to 10 Sept (2mm).
Therefore I accept that the flow through that stormwater drain on 12 Sept was either zero (or a low rate if the undeveloped land above the end of drive is considered).
My opinion is that the scenario of accidental unintentional entry into the stormwater drain system cannot be safely ruled out, unless all of the open entry points are measured, using the expert measuring methods and templates used in scientific studies of balcony railing design.

 

[richieswan]

Thanks richieswan. Which state is that in? The maximum pemitted kerb inlet opening height appears to vary state by state, Queensland seems to be further forward on this.

http://www.maxq.com.au/images/Downloads/Child Safety.pdf

My photo is in NSW. I picked a street that has gully-style kerbs, similar to Benaroon Dr. When a suburb/development is designed the water engineers create a flood model to ensure drainage can handle surface runoff for its catchment, taking into account the size, gradient, roughness, imperviousness and average rainfall occurrence (plus other stuff I don't know).

GM's house is high in the drainage network with a very small stormwater catchment. It would only need a small drain height, width and spacing, and the subsurface pipe diameter would be minimal. In contrast a large road with a fast speed limit on a flat area would need to drain the rainfall quickly so flooding or pooled surface water does not occur. Such roads may have the largest permissible pit opening, spaced closer together and have large underground pipes. The pipes get bigger and bigger down the catchment. These big roads would also have less kids playing near them, so less risk of swallowing.

I've done plenty of urban caving in my youth and I'm pretty familiar with the underworld. I don't think the kerb drains on Benaroon Dr could fit a 3 year old head.

 

[Bohemian]

Time for Baird to offer reward for little boy lost
Editorial
The Sydney Morning Herald
September 11 2016 - 12:00AM

'Three-year-old William Tyrrell vanished without trace from outside his grandmother's house at Kendall, on the NSW Mid North coast two years ago on Monday. '

'NSW Police have put huge effort and resources into trying to solve what happened to the toddler in the Spiderman suit on September 12, 2014. Strike Force Rosann, using the skills of some specially-trained investigators experienced in the unexplained disappearance of young children, has so far information about some 600 persons of interests. Information packages relating to about 400 of those persons of interest have been sent to police local area commands across NSW. While the investigation is being run by the Homicide Squad, other teams at NSW Police's State Crime Command, home to the force's elite squads, are also helping with workload.

More than 400 alleged sightings around Australia and in New Zealand have been investigated and run to ground. There has been a media report of a paedophile ring and police have interviewed more than 1000 people in connection with the case and targeted up to 30 men, either suspected or with records of, having a history of child sexual abuse. The search has also spread to Europe and the US. Crime Stoppers websites in some 26 countries have been asked by the Australian Federal Police to post an appeal for information.

But on the second anniversary of the toddler's disappearance, despite the best efforts of police we appear no closer to knowing what happened than in first minutes after the alarm was first raised on that spring morning in 2014.

The sad and undeniable fact in cases like this is that it can sometimes takes years for justice to be served. '

'Clearly people see things. Somebody must have seen something at Kendall that morning. And it is difficult to escape the conclusion that someone knows something and must be covering up.

Two years after William Tyrrell vanished, with little to show for such a massive police effort, it is time that the Baird government offered a reward for information in hope of bringing closure to this tragic and sad affair.'

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-e...ward-for-little-boy-lost-20160909-grcrka.html

 

[koios]

My photo is in NSW. I picked a street that has gully-style kerbs, similar to Benaroon Dr. When a suburb/development is designed the water engineers create a flood model to ensure drainage can handle surface runoff for its catchment, taking into account the size, gradient, roughness, imperviousness and average rainfall occurrence (plus other stuff I don't know).

GM's house is high in the drainage network with a very small stormwater catchment. It would only need a small drain height, width and spacing, and the subsurface pipe diameter would be minimal. In contrast a large road with a fast speed limit on a flat area would need to drain the rainfall quickly so flooding or pooled surface water does not occur. Such roads may have the largest permissible pit opening, spaced closer together and have large underground pipes. The pipes get bigger and bigger down the catchment. These big roads would also have less kids playing near them, so less risk of swallowing.

I've done plenty of urban caving in my youth and I'm pretty familiar with the underworld. I don't think the kerb drains on Benaroon Dr could fit a 3 year old head.

Thanks richieswan. In an earlier post lampshade1 estimated that the stormdrain pipe diameter on Benaroon is probably 375mm.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...12-Sept-2014-7/page32&p=11639912#post11639912
Also here is an image at the top end of the drive. There is a slotted kerb inlet and integral inspection cover for access to the stormdrain below. However there is also a silver coloured rectangle. I zoomed in on streetview and can see no lifting lugs so I don't think it is an inspection cover. It appears to have a pattern of longitudinal lines which suggests it may be a metal grille? I think it is possible this may be the grille top of an inlet where possibly a small intermittent creek may enter the upper point of the stormwater pipe. If so then the stormwater drain possibly drains not only the street, but also water from the undeveloped land above,

 

[Bohemian]

Thankyou for the weather data source Bohemian, it is exactly what I was looking for. The first recorded rain after the disappearance was 9mm on 26 Sept (the 24.6mm was on 14 Oct not Sept).
The last recorded rain before the disappearance was in the period from 6 Sept (22mm) to 10 Sept (2mm).
Therefore I accept that the flow through that stormwater drain on 12 Sept was either zero (or a low rate if the undeveloped land above the end of drive is considered).
My opinion is that the scenario of accidental unintentional entry into the stormwater drain system cannot be safely ruled out, unless all of the open entry points are measured, using the expert measuring methods and templates used in scientific studies of balcony railing design.

Thanks for letting me know about my error. My apologies (end of 12 hour shift, on mobile, tired eyes).

I understand 'the scenario of accidental unintentional entry into the stormwater drain system cannot be safely ruled out, unless all of the open entry points are measured, using the expert measuring methods and templates used in scientific studies of [balcony railing(?)] design].', but you'd have to admit, on the balance of probability; with consideration given to the duration, intensity and extensiveness of the police search (along with the subsequent, and often unremarked upon, attendance at the scene by Forensic Services Group), that this scenario would be statistically unlikely?

The final paragraph in my previous post didn't relate to your thinking regarding this scenario alone but, more generally to all of your posts on this thread to date, so I will pose my question again:

'I get the impression that you are alluding to this case as being one of (as yet undiscovered) accidental death. Could you expand on your reasoning in reference to the specific circumstances of William's disappearance and the subsequent Port Macquarie LAC, Missing Persons Squad and Strike Force Rosann investigations please, koios?'

 

[koios]

Thanks for letting me know about my error. My apologies (end of 12 hour shift, on mobile, tired eyes).

I understand 'the scenario of accidental unintentional entry into the stormwater drain system cannot be safely ruled out, unless all of the open entry points are measured, using the expert measuring methods and templates used in scientific studies of [balcony railing(?)] design].', but you'd have to admit, on the balance of probability; with consideration given to the duration, intensity and extensiveness of the police search (along with the subsequent, and often unremarked upon, attendance at the scene by Forensic Services Group), that this scenario would be statistically unlikely?

The final paragraph in my previous post didn't relate to your thinking regarding this scenario alone but, more generally to all of your posts on this thread to date, so I will pose my question again:

'I get the impression that you are alluding to this case as being one of (as yet undiscovered) accidental death. Could you expand on your reasoning in reference to the specific circumstances of William's disappearance and the subsequent Port Macquarie LAC, Missing Persons Squad and Strike Force Rosann investigations please, koios?'

If there is any remote possibility of accidental fall into the stormdrain system, then that possibility exists, and is not reduced, no matter how many other things (an awaited washing machine repair, some parked cars with windows down, a complicated family situation, some passing cars, people with criminal records living in the town or nearby, etc etc etc) are added to the equation.
I haven't studied each stage of the investigation in detail Bohemian, but in general I think that abduction, or some variant of accidental death remaining undiscovered, are both possible.