AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

[PAXIMUS]

I certainly wont flame you. I havent said one unkind word against Becky and have no reason to do so. I dont think either parent is involved.

But I dont have the same concept of her marriage as you do. I have seen one of Becky's closest friends say that Becky and Sergio are a very close knit couple who have been in love since Becky was a teen. I have seen nothing to contradict that. Not one word has been said that they didnt have a close loving marriage.

I also dont think Becky doubts Sergio at all. She said that her boys lives have been ripped apart and all they want is to have their family back together. Imo, that includes Isa and Sergio to make the family complete again. Imo, Becky wants all of her family to be together again. She wants her daughter home and she wants her husband home.

I also will do the same for Sergio since I do not know him personally nor knew him before this happened in order to be able to weigh his demeanor during the 911 call. I have seen some 911 callers be as cool as a cucumber even when witnessing their loved ones dead with blood everywhere.

There hasnt been one shred of evidence shown against either parent. I will wait until LE is forcoming with actual evidence before I judge them for they are walking in shoes... I pray I will never have to wear.

So no flaming from me at all.

IMO

I agree, I have never said anything bad about these parents nor have I ever posted any theories or had any posts removed because of it. A lot of folks saying he is a drug addict, gay, killed his daughter etc, all with no evidence at all. There is no evidence at all that these parents are bad people, but there might be some evidence that some people they knew or associated with were bad people, some of us are currently looking in to that but nothing can be said for certain in that regard yet and I dont know anyone here who has suggested such.


I said it before and I will say it again, everything is on the table right now and anything is possible so I have no problem with anyone discussing whatever it is they believed happened but I dont think anyone can say for certain that one person's belief is better than another because frankly there is no evidence to support any of these theories but there is a lot of circumstantial loose ends that some people are working hard to tie up and see where they lead.

 

[txanmom]

This is a kinda difficult question because of the home having gated alley access on the west side of the home from the rear so having that of camera maybe kinda tricky not to mention that thier front yard is pretty much walled in and maybe difficult to film over. BUT I got a really good debockle to work through, If the window was NOT the point of entry and SC was allegedly in the family room on the other side of the wall from Isa then he would have had to have woken up as these perps came into the home. And I am merely speculating from looking at Google Maps and Video's of Leo's comming and going but IMO I seriously think they left the garage door open the night of the disapearance and someone just walked right on in and did the job... Even if SC was passed out in front of the TV and not involved its still probable BUT in light of the speculation he was in the Family Room and not in bed ( which is an unknown ) I am also open to SC having been involved.

So do you think they walked in through the garage and left through the window? I am asking because with the screen being out of the window there had to have been either:
1. Entry through window
2. Exit through window
3. Both entry and exit through window
4. Set-up to look like this is what happened

in # 4 we HAVE to consider why would a perp set this up?

 

[cluciano63]

The only thing I will say, which is just an observation, is that my best friend would and does tell people that my husband and I have a great marriage, are super-close, etc...when is reality we have had a tough time the past ten years or so, but she does not know all about it, she only sees that we are still married, which is rare enough, and that we seem to get along. So I don't put a while lot of stock, overall, in hearing from friends about the status of the relationships of other people. JMO

 

[Madeleine74]

Also keep in mind some things cannot be posted on WS. What has been posted wrt the whole FF thing and other nefarious connections that have been found is only about 1% of what is out there. Some of it cannot be posted on here because of the rules, if people did the actual research and looked in to it, which I thought is what 'sleuthers' do, they would find that there is a WHOLE LOT more to this than they realize.

Im taking the time to do the research, I wish others would too, whether it be about this theory or another, do the research yourself and read what is out there THEN draw your conclusions.

Just jumping off your post (red text highlighted by me).

When I think of sleuthers, be they real life or fictional, like Sherlock Holmes or Colombo or whatever character you want to use as a comparison, they all have something in common:

They have access to the amassed information. They can see/read the reports, interviews, look at the evidence, see the lab reports, talk to the people involved. They have a factual basis on which to continue to build knowledge that relates to what they know they have already.

I'll put it another way. Consider a 1,000 piece puzzle. LE has maybe 500 pieces of the puzzle...maybe even 600 pieces. The public, which includes people on forums who are interested in the case, have maybe 50 to 100 pieces. Maybe we have even less.

Now perhaps there are some very talented folks who can determine what picture emerges from a 1,000 piece puzzle based on looking at 50 to 100 pieces, but I'd think that was pretty unlikely. LE has a much better sense of the picture emerging, but they are not all the way there. Maybe they need to get to 850 pieces to be able to reasonably and certainly identify the puzzle and prove what the picture is to a degree that allows an outcome.

So "sleuthing" is conducted by the people who have access to the body of knowledge comprised of statements, documents, evidence, forensics and witnesses. And that is not the position the average person following the case is in.

What do we have access to? Some MSM articles, very few case details released, some of the 911 calls, and some rumors which may or may not have any credibility to them.

 

[PAXIMUS]

It is becoming more and more evident to me that those voices at 6:30 am that the neighbor girl heard are a key to this case...

 

[spoiledmom]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...red-from-contact-with-his-other-children.html

 

[PAXIMUS]

Just jumping off your post (red text highlighted by me).

When I think of sleuthers, be they real life or fictional, like Sherlock Holmes or Colombo or whatever character you want to use as a comparison, they all have something in common:

They have access to the amassed information. They can see/read the reports, interviews, look at the evidence, see the lab reports, talk to the people involved. They have a factual basis on which to continue to build knowledge that relates to what they know they have already.

I'll put it another way. Consider a 1,000 piece puzzle. LE has maybe 500 pieces of the puzzle...maybe even 600 pieces. The public, which includes people on forums who are interested in the case, have maybe 50 to 100 pieces. Maybe we have even less.

Now perhaps there are some very talented folks who can determine what picture emerges from a 1,000 piece puzzle based on looking at 50 to 100 pieces, but I'd think that was pretty unlikely. LE has a much better sense of the picture emerging, but they are not all the way there. Maybe they need to get to 850 pieces to be able to reasonably and certainly identify the puzzle and prove what the picture is to a degree that allows an outcome.

So "sleuthing" is conducted by the people who have access to the body of knowledge comprised of statements, documents, evidence, forensics and witnesses. And that is not the position the average person following the case is in.

What do we have access to? Some MSM articles, very few case details released, some of the 911 calls, and some rumors which may or may not have any credibility to them.

That is true I understand, I personally have access to all sorts of databases but that is just how I roll. They arent free so I understand why most people dont have that access.

 

[Stash777]

This thread is a mess! I've removed umpteen extraneous posts. If you guys want the thread to stay open, then get back on track now.

I don't want to shoot down any theory. The facts are scarce in this case, and I realize that leaves a lot of room for speculation. On the other hand, your theories should at least be plausible, which means you can provide links to back them up. The cartel theory, for example. Can anyone provide a link to show it is a legitimate possibility in this case? Any links to another case where a Mexican cartel abducted a young chid as a retaliatory measure against a parent? Links to show the family is actually involved in illegal activity? The same goes for any theory. If you want to move forward with a line of thinking, you must support it with factual information.

I did find this, on the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children website:

<snipped>
"Southern California officials estimate at least 200 kidnappings each year tied to Mexican organized crime groups. Texas officials report 4-6 kidnappings per week along the border. The majority of these incidents have been kidnappings of rival criminals, while the greater population has remained relatively untouched. However, in some cases, innocent family members are snatched in retribution."

http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/NewsEventServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=4109

 

[FrayedKnot]

It gets old when people continue to poo poo on everything and call it weak or unworthy of discussion. This is not a popularity contest and ALL I, and many others, are trying to do is figure out what happened to Isa. That. Is. All.

You said poo poo. Heh heh.

Sorry. I'm on the drogas for my toof which needs a root canal (good times) so forgive me if I make any (more than usual) nonsensical posts.

No pistachios for me.

So, in reference to the pajama debate, my Little Knotling seldom wears pajamas to bed. She will occasionally wear pj pants and a tee to hang out in after bath, but usually wears shorts and same tee to bed.

FWIW....very unhinky compared to so much else in this case! . JMO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DollyPardonMe]

This thread is a mess! I've removed umpteen extraneous posts. If you guys want the thread to stay open, then get back on track now.

I don't want to shoot down any theory. The facts are scarce in this case, and I realize that leaves a lot of room for speculation. On the other hand, your theories should at least be plausible, which means you can provide links to back them up. The cartel theory, for example. Can anyone provide a link to show it is a legitimate possibility in this case? Any links to another case where a Mexican cartel abducted a young chid as a retaliatory measure against a parent? Links to show the family is actually involved in illegal activity? The same goes for any theory. If you want to move forward with a line of thinking, you must support it with factual information.

I had this page translated from Spanish. It shows that Cartels will pay up to $500,000 for a child to work in the US as spies and eventually turned into killers for the cartels. They are recruited from Mexican and latino families. The article says they start recruiting under 11 yrs of age but who knows what a parent would do for a debt owed or for that large amount of money (OMG, I would hate to think that)!!

http://translate.google.com/transla...s+unidos&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLL_enUS305&prmd=imvns

 

[LisaB]

I think he didn't sound afraid because he was involved. I in no way think that he is innocent. If the cartel took her, I think he willingly gave her to them. JMO.
Could be why he is not allowed to be around the boys.

If this was the case, and LE told BC that SC had given IC to these people, WHY would she have defended him as Vega claims she did? Why would she find it unreasonable to separate him from the family? If I found out my husband had given my BABY GIRL, just 6 years old, to settle a debt, you'd better separate him from me or I'm going to make him sorry he was ever born.

 

[spoiledmom]

And just to make sure that I understand...all theory that many of us have based on the cartel is rooted in this one charge?

Definitely not, but police extending the search into Mexico taking Sergio's kids away and not ruling out anything can definitely give a reason for the theory.

 

[PAXIMUS]

I will post this here on the record so that we can move on and discuss cartels and kidnappings from here on forward:


From, Judicial Watch:

Mexican Cartels Make Phoenix U.S. Kidnap Capital

http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2009/02/mexican-cartels-make-phoenix-kidnap-capital/

Snipped

A major U.S. city long known as an illegal immigrant sanctuary has the nation&#8217;s highest rate of ransom kidnappings, virtually all of them connected to Mexican drug cartels that have penetrated the area in the last few years.

Federal law enforcement officials have crowned Phoenix the country&#8217;s kidnap-for-ransom capital, according to a news report published this week. Arizona&#8217;s largest city, also the nation&#8217;s fifth most populous, by far has more ransom kidnappings than any other U.S. municipality and most every victim and suspect is connected to Mexican drug smugglers from Sinaloa which is located along the Pacific Coast several hours south of Arizona.

Popular among Latin American terrorists and crime organizations to raise funds, ransom kidnappings are rare in the U.S. and most local law enforcement officers never encounter one throughout their career. But Arizona has become the new drug gateway into the United States and that dubious honor comes with unprecedented violence.

In the last two years, Phoenix Police received nearly 1,000 kidnapping-for-ransom reports and authorities estimate that twice as many went unreported. Kidnappings are so rampant that the department had to create a special unit to handle the once unheard of crimes.

Like I said before I am shocked that people arent aware of this, it has happened to kids in California, Texas, Arizona, many of which never make the news or get reported to police because the parents are illegals. It happens to both kids and adults alike and a simple google search produces hundreds of results and stories and cases of CARTELS KIDNAPPING US CITIZENS FOR RANSOM.

 

[Lark2]

No, that is not the reason. I think that some locals have heard this rumor.

Yes, some say they have heard rumors. But based on what the mod just said, I think those rumors now need to be backed up by some links that can serve as a basis for them.

I've never seen anything which would make me think that THIS FAMILY could be involved in a drug or gun cartel, but maybe I'm missing something.

 

[spoiledmom]

If this was the case, and LE told BC that SC had given IC to these people, WHY would she have defended him as Vega claims she did? Why would she find it unreasonable to separate him from the family? If I found out my husband had given my BABY GIRL, just 6 years old, to settle a debt, you'd better separate him from me or I'm going to make him sorry he was ever born.

We don't know what her current relationship is with Sergio. He may have just told police the day before the kids were taken away. The police said that they are now asking more direct questions and for some reason they decided to tell CPS what they discovered. BC is probably more focused on getting her daughter back and not thinking about her marriage. She is not living with him so she doesn't need to think about that right now.

 

[jennapuppy]

So "sleuthing" is conducted by the people who have access to the body of knowledge comprised of statements, documents, evidence, forensics and witnesses. And that is not the position the average person following the case is in.

What do we have access to? Some MSM articles, very few case details released, some of the 911 calls, and some rumors which may or may not have any credibility to them.

I'm not sure I understand your objection to his use of the term "sleuthing". This is Websleuths, after all.:waitasec:

 

[bwilson]

Paxi, did you ever make it over there, to take photos? I'm specifically curious about the fence in the backyard. In some photos it seems there is a wooden gate, in others, just stucco wall. I would also like to know how tall the wall is, on the southwestern corner.

I have been trying to build up the nerve to go over there and film/photograph for anyone who would like a better look. I've been getting the bus at Broadway and Craycroft for the past few weeks. I have 5 more days of bus-riding (till school's out for TUSD), so tomorrow I will do it. I'll film the entire walk from the corner of BW/Craycroft, through the Office Max/Party City/5 Guys parking lot, and over to the house. Then, I'll upload and post it when I get home, at about 3:30 PM AZ time. Anyone have any special requests?

Actually, I take the bus straight down Craycroft, so I could film the route from TMC up to Broadway as well.

 

[PAXIMUS]

Yes, some say they have heard rumors. But based on what the mod just said, I think those rumors now need to be backed up by some links that can serve as a basis for them.

I've never seen anything which would make me think they could be involved in a drug or gun cartel, but maybe I'm missing something.

And I havent either, but I have seen some things to suggest MAYBE some people they know or MAYBE people in family MIGHT BE.


Who knows, the only thing I care about is:

WHERE IS ISABEL?

 

[Lark2]

Definitely not, but police extending the search into Mexico taking Sergio's kids away and not ruling out anything can definitely give a reason for the theory.

Mexico searches=old news. No current "searches" in Mexico. Search yesterday was 3 miles down road from Celis house.

 

[LisaB]

The media has not been exactly accurate in this case.

Yes, JM is the relative that the media called spokesperson at first.

The media interviewed JM late afternoon and evening. The reporter noted the time of day it was, and we could see the afternoon sun and dusk in both. Twice. He was searching and passing out flyers.

We have no evidence that shows JM there in the morning, none.

We also have no evidence showing JM state he was the "family spokesperson."

He could have said he was family, or some friend could have done so.
He did say that he organized a bunch of friends to help with the flyers.
The media referenced him as such.

IMO it could have been the same thing as they did a few days ago saying that the older children were from another mother...

This is why I always track down the source, rather than paraphrase what someone else has paraphrased....

I hope that helps.
I do understand what it is like to jump into a discussion of a case a bit late, and 15 threads of catch up is fairly impossible.

Please forgive my overexplaining at times as it is the nature of my profession.

He indicates on his social media and dating profiles that he is Isabel's uncle.

A man went knocking on the door of the guesthouse next door on the side of the house that Isa's bedroom was on, to see if they had seen her at 8am. Later(?) LE told this neighbor that the man who had knocked previously was Isabel's uncle.

We do not know who this man may have been. Becky has a brother who has appeared in the media stating that he is Isabel's uncle, but that he was not the person who knocked on the neighbor's door, and had no idea who that might have been.