AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[GutFeeling!]

When CPS makes a call to a home, is it SOP to speak to both parents? The only sensible reason I can think of for Sergio not to be directly involved with CPS during their Dec. visit would be if he weren't living in the home at the time. Even if it were a minor, unfounded complaint, it still seems careless not to take the time to speak to both parents in an effort to be as thorough as possible. IMO

Nope they spoke to neither parents when they came here, but it seems I can tell first hand experience with CPS until I am blue in the face lol

 

[SmoothOperator]

<**The two posts below I have c/p from Thread 17**>

Originally Posted by Prof
Seriously, this is the crux of the issue right here. These are victims here, all of Isa's family. Thanks, Anita Richman, for being there in the flesh to relate what it's really like, and bring this point back home? While LE is not ruling the family out as POI, and stating that everyone is a POI, that does not equate to the family being guilty perps either.

While there are certain things that raise my eyebrows toward some of the family, there has been nothing that damning in all of these weeks for me to want to post unsubstantiated rumor about this family either. Until I know more about the previous CPS visit, or just how involved in drugs or drug dealing this family is, I will continue to give the family the benefit of the doubt.

I have so little in the way of facts to go on in this case.

It is a complex case, and because I care about Isa, I care about those who love her as well. I have not seen much evidence of a lack of love on the family's part, quite the contrary. I keep my mind open to their involvement simply because any other scenario seems very rare; that said, I just don't see any purpose in my pumping venom into the snake of rumor that is already out there on the internet.

I am not here for bombshells, alien abduction theories, or viewers ratings. I am pretty sure I'd score pretty low on the viewer rating scale, and that's okay by me. I just want the best for Isa and her family.

I come here in search of the truth, not to write the story.

Originally Posted by prima.facie
I can understand what you are feeling.....and I feel you have an extremely loving, caring heart!

For me its a bit different though....my stance always is: evidence, evidence, evidence (which includes testimony)....I have the ability (most times, i cave at times too) to set aside my personal feelings for people on a personal basis and focus on the facts of a case. Because it is the evidence that will either rule out a suspect or confirm a suspect. (I know im prob speaking to the choir...but) Evidence and the analysis of is not just to find someone guilty...it is also used to find someone innocent.

For me and others, in these type of cases our main priority is: FIND THE CHILD & WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILD'S DISSAPEARANCE OR MURDER. It is not to feel sorry for how relatives are feeling....there are other people who can do that task (counselors, victim advocates, and kind hearted people like you, etc).

A relative very well could be guilty and putting on an act or actually feel distraight for doing something on accident (mama Irwin, IMO, is an example of this). And since LE has not eliminated mom and dad as possible suspects, them being guilty is still on the table, just as much as them being innocent is. At this point...........we just dont know. But I refuse to rule them out because my heart breaks that they are missing their little girl and at a vigil were emotions are running super high, they appear to be sad.

I know my stance comes off as cold-hearted. It really is not. My passion for finding justice in this world is extremly high....and that justice goes either way: finding someone innocent and/or finding someone guilty (and in cases such as this....finding out where a child is and what happened to a child and who the hell did it).

These two posts well describe, each in their own way what is their opinion, thoughts, and altogether alot of their reason for being here.. Moo is that both are of the utmost of importance and together they fully represent what it is we do here and what it is we come here for.. We come from all different walks of life.. With a wide spectrum of life experiences that affect the way we think, feel, observe, and form opinions and views of all the varying different aspects involved in a case..

I am an extremely passionate individual in all aspects of life.. But am perfectly aware that in looking at a case from a fact based point of view that my "feelings" are put aside and i approach it with an unbiased mind.. I am able to look and evaluate each new detail and info that comes to light without bias and ascertain what if any direction does this information lead.. My mind is never set in stone in a case and have/will change accordingly based on the information that is learned throughout the unfolding of a case.. Because for me it's not about being "right".. It's not about having the "right" theory that as a case comes to resolution I can say my theory was "right".. My "side" was right.. It's about following a case and realizing as prima stated in her post that first and foremost it is about the one person who we all can absolutely agree on IS A VICTIM HERE.. In this case that is Isabel Mercedes Celis.. In the end that's whose side I am on and IMO there is no right or wrong to it.. It is simply the only way that both my heart and mind work..

While capable of putting aside my "heart" from the situation and looking upon the case from the analytical point of view.. Systematically filing and listing each one of those details and issues throughout the life of the case.. All of that well and good and all of that important..

However while my "heart" is capable of being put aside while evaluating each detail and what they together indicate.. My "heart" imo is not only a valid aspect but one of utmost importance.. important feelings and God given womanly instincts that I am fully equipped with as well.. That IMO I am intelligent enough to be able to not allow what I may "feel" in my heart and soul to do the disservice of turning a blind eye to what the facts are that my "mind" has fully analyzed and filed away regarding the case.. IMO it is the two together that make up what is each our own unique, personal opinions, thoughts, views of a case..

Each can be done alone and lead to their own conclusion but if only looking and analyzing the black and white of a case IMO these threads would be very cut and dry.. Very black or white.. With nothing in between.. No wide spectrum at all and IMO we'd all be packing up our smilies and going elsewhere..

I fully appreciate the entire wide and vast spectrum that we all together cover here in this forum.. I fully believe that we all, if open to it, can learn so very much from each other.. I know that for me personally that I do .. If we all were to cut the crap so to speak and analyzed the "data" to be real frank itd be one helluva boring discussion and IMO Isabel Celis for damn sure wouldn't have 18 threads of thorough and for the most part very productive discussion about her that in the end has kept her in the spotlight..

I think it's very important to have the open discussion that takes place here.. I think it's very detrimental to attempt to dampen down any one's well thought out and important opinions, views, and theories.. gliving said it best in the last thread bullies suck!! And there definitely are times that most of us do feel the heat when our thoughts or views happen to be on the unpopular or minority end of the spectrum.. Feeling the heat is one thing but rude and condescending is an entirely different issue that doesnt belong.. As well as there being A HUGE AND MASSIVE difference in someone replying to a post with very valid yet different and opposing opinions/views as to the subject of the post of which they are replying.. This IMO is adult productive discussion.. Vastly different from an "attack" which often times is claimed when a member posts a reply voicing their different and opposing view.. That's in no way whatsoever an "attack".. It's a view that has very right to be stated just as does the post they're replying to.. This IMO is way too often shrieked about negatively when the truth is that it could not be farther from an "attack", nor even rude in even the least bit.. It just happens to be different and that my friends is not an "attack". That is not negative.. IMO its a large part of having adult discussions with different and even opposing views and opinions about any number of aspects of a case.. I personally have no desire to change anyone's view.

What I do want is an even playing field of knowledge...and in my attempting to have the playing field even, as in reading someone's thoughts or views on as issue and seeing that they may not have all the details/info that are available.. Or even worse that they may have absolutely incorrect information.. In seeing that I absolutely will take the initiative to post that information that a fellow member may not be aware of.. Or post the correct information of what was mistaken or misinformed in a fellow members post.. What each person chooses to do with.. Or how they choose to view that information is not for me to decide, nor do I want to influence what their opinion is.. I just firmly believe that everyone has the right to all of the info available and for that info to be correct and not misinformed or misconstrued Information that at times can border on an all out mistruth/lie..

And Yes, it's all here somewhere but the problem is we do very much have real lives, real families, real jobs that do not allow the vast majority of us the opportunity to read each and every word of each and every post.. It's just not possible and due to that there are many times when we miss out on Important details or even worse only have the knowledge of possibly the incorrect, misinformed details and not the info that was the next page over that one of us missed in our attempts at getting caught up..we deserve to all have the correct information and from there it is to each their own how they choose to view that info.. I will continue to help or supply my fellow members with correct info any time that I can and I hope that they'd do the same for me.. Regardless of whether they agree with me or have the same view on the particular case or issue at hand.. I'm definitely an old school, golden rule type of girl.. That may sound or seem to be a stupid or ultra simple way of thinking but oh well that's how I think/feel..

There is no right or wrong IMO and there is no side that is bad vs a side that is good.. I do not in any way heap guilt onto those who have a different or opposite view than mine.. In fact the exact opposite in that many times I will actually ask for the opposing views to respond.. All of our views are important here and I encourage all views/opinions..My intentions are not to have everyone share my same feelings I may have for the Celis' nor do I need anyone to agree with what I stated that I felt in their publicly being insinuated and alluded to and about in various negative ways.. That's my opinion and that's exactly what I feel.. Some may feel similarly.. Some may feel totally opposite.. To each their own..

I will voice/state my feelings just like I voice/state what I deduce from the evidence available at that particular point in a case.. My voicing/stating them doesn't in any way impact what others thoughts, views, or opinions are.. While I many times am met with numerous posts pointing out why I shouldn't feel that way.. Well that's their prerogative to believe that and it doesn't affect or hinder my own personal thoughts and it certainly doesn't hinder my going to continue to state those thoughts, views, and opinions.. The minute that we allow others statements to hinder what we think, feel, or say is the minute this quits being productive.. We are not here to be scolded or guilted into agreeing and I strongly encourage that when someone feels as tho that is happening to NOT ALLOW IT TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT YOU.. Do not back down from what BOTH YOUR HEART AND MIND have concluded AT THE PRESENT TIME, GIVEN THE PRESENT INFO AVAILABLE.. You, just as I Have every right to think and/or feel and to state freely those thoughts and opinions AS LONG AS IT IS WITHIN TOS.. Do not back down or be swayed by someone else's "stronger" or "better worded" opinion or view.. Yours and mine are both equally important and yours and mine both should be stated freely.. We learn from each other's different thoughts and opinions and I feel it's important that we each are able to state those thoughts and opinions..

It's ok if someone doesn't agree or even doesn't like it.. :banghead: <- regarding this now being viewed as negative just because people were using them last night due to the fact that there were innocent, uninvolved peoples faces that were the size of your entire screen monitor being plastered in pages of posts.. Well.. I just disagree at the harsh come down on peoples expressing what IMO is an absolute appropriate feeling of frustration from the little spiel that occurred..
It was quickly remedied and we moved on.. While IMO if the expressing of frustration carried on for hours or days after the issue having been righted.. Well that IMO would obviously be inappropriate.. But that didn't occur.. People expressed their frustration over the issue., it was remedied, and we moved on.. IMO that is appropriate.. the banging heads last night were for a specific reason and IMO when someone is frustrated by an issue such as this they should be able to express that appropriately and not guilted.. Shamed.. Or scolded into being fearful to do so in the future..

My feelings that I expressed last night about my personal hurt for Sergio/Becky are openly and honestly the way I feel.. I made specific that this opinion is felt due to the fact that my personal opinion is that the family(and I want to be very specific I am only talking of Sergio and Becky and not any other) imo at this time with what very little is KNOWN MO is they are not involved and that is why my opinion is that there are very negative life long affects from what they are experiencing presently.. Others feel differently and I respect that.. If my opinion/view at some point changes to their being guilty of involvement then obviously my opinion would drastically change as well as to the life long effects due to the fact they would be responsible for those negative impacts and effects as well..
It is just this that I very simply stated last night..

As always to each their own and as always these are nothing more than jmo, tho!


____________________...
Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy:

 

[Mjskit]

Well then why ould they tell Sergio he cant see his children???? If it wasnt him?????

Something happened and its a big enuff deal to keep him from his kids and its not cause of what maybe someone else in his house did.

The December visit was not him. Apparently the May visit is him or he would not have the no contact agreement.

I think, IMOO, the Celis family, before Isabel's disappearance had never had contact in ANY WAY with CPS about their children.

CPS job is to protect children and that is why they do not want contact. Why? Your GUESS is as good as mine. So what are your ideas?

 

[FrayedKnot]

You mentioned pate earlier today (or last night), and I'll have you know that I make killer chicken liver pate. Serve with matzoh. Mazel Tov!

Mazel Tov, my dear! I would very much LOVE some chicken liver pate to go with the pinot I am so so so enjoying!

OnT: I wish Isa were somewhere safe tonight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Anita Richman]

I think one thing that is important to note is the language LE has chosen to use, calling this an 'abduction' as opposed to a 'kidnapping.'


Legally and technically speaking there is a slight difference between those two acts.

Not sure where this will fall, EE, but what's the difference? (If this hasn't been asked already.)

 

[GutFeeling!]

It doesnt suprise me. I have always thought if they weren't an Hispanic family the drug cartel speculation wouldnt have entered the equation.

IMO

My God that is so true.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Honestly i believe its where they live!

What does that have to do with it?

Are you saying all people from Tucson are connected to the drug cartel?:waitasec:

 

[WhatsupAZ]

I'm telling you, that is really odd. I suppose some people can't handle weed because they are allergic to it, or some such thing.

Imo SELLING weed and the lifestyle that comes with it and USING weed and the lifestyle that comes with are two totally separate circumstances.

 

[Anita Richman]

Does anyone know which family members were at the vigil last evening besides the two boys and mom? Just wonder what other family members are close to the Celis family.

The only ones I know for sure are RC, older son, brothers of both RC and SC, SC's sister and parents. However, this is a strong family resemblance in the Celis family and there were many people there who "fit that look".

 

[mamamia54]

Imo SELLING weed and the lifestyle that comes with it and USING weed and the lifestyle that comes with are two totally separate circumstances.

Absoloutely, you are right.

 

[GutFeeling!]

Well then why ould they tell Sergio he cant see his children???? If it wasnt him?????

Something happened and its a big enuff deal to keep him from his kids and its not cause of what maybe someone else in his house did.

Define "big deal" , what are you assumng?

 

[TxLady2]

IMO a kidnapping would first involve an abduction. A kidnapping is one form of abduction. Another form would be a parental abduction. A kidnapping is not called a kidnapping until the abductor makes some kind of demand. Until then, a kidnapping is called an abduction. JMO

IMO LE cannot call this a kidnapping until someone has made some kind of demand, be it for custody or money, or revenge.

That is why this case is under the larger umbrella of abduction...IMO

LE has clearly stated in every presser that they are investigating both internal and external possibilities for Isa's dissappearance.

Kidnapping is forcefully removing a minor child from lawful custody without the consent of parent or guardian.
Abduction is compelling a child or an adult to go from a place deceitfully, and with the intention of demanding custody or ransom. It can also be with the intent of causing bodily harm.
The thing to remember is that the term kidnapping refers to a minor child, but abduction can also be of an adult.
LE will usually describe a person taking a baby or small child to raise as their own as a kidnapping.

 

[mamamia54]

Define "big deal" , what are you assumng?

The "Big Deal" is that he isn't permitted contact or to be around his family right now, and his baby daughter is missing. That's the Big Deal JMHO

 

[AZlawyer]

Just a few questions....only speculating:

1. Would cps visit a family if a teenager was caught smoking pot (minor incedent)?
2. Arent mostly all marijuana related dui's in AZ dropped due to "lack of evidence" while most all alchohol related dui's are highly prosecuted (just personal experience and observation)
3. Speculation only!: maybe through investigation it was discovered or admidted that sc smokes pot, pretty innocent in the grand scheme of things, but still illegal. Would that warrent CPS interception while holding up the family's view that the whole matter is absurd? Only my opinion...

And all mute points if they are responsible in some way for isa's dissapearance. I guess I am just trying to quelch my hinky inkling.
jmo

1. no.
2. yes IMO only-I have not done a study.
3. no, cps would not get involved for that reason alone, and certainly would not say they wanted sergio to leave the house.

 

[Pensfan]

"investigators now confirm child protective services first visited the celis home back in december, though a law enforcement source tells nbc news the incident was minor, and did not involve isabel."

RBBM: there's that unnamed source again.

Then, according to that unnamed source, CPS has been involved with more than one of the Celis kids. If this is true, it is another indicator that something was wrong inside the Celis home.

 

[Cheyne]

I had not seen The Today Show. So apparently "a law enforcement source" told NBC that it was a minor incident. And the other source about Sergio/CPS/December is the sister.

I thought Becky's face was interesting when Sergio said the "k" word ("kidnapped, kidnapped") at about the 1:25 mark. She's looking down and sideways. I try to convince myself that Becky's not a party to this "abduction", but, alas, she too sets off my hinky meter over the top of the scale. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47473660#47473660

But you all have probably hashed this out already!

I have given up trying to figure out what happened that night. I have no doubt that both Becky and Sergio are involved and responsible (perhaps one more than the other, but both are in deep). I don't think they thought this would become such a huge media story, but I do think they were prepared for a long term "wait it out" period.

I also have a ton of confidence that LE is onto them and has a plan and is working it as best they can. Some of their moves have been outstanding. I know I can't be privy to what they know, and I'm cool with that - it's the way it has to be while they do their thing.

But I find some consolation in that I don't think Isabel is suffering in a "tortured" type of way. I believe she is alive and with someone who is caring for her or that she has been killed. I go back and forth between those 2 scenarios since the parents do not and have never acted like people whose child has been kidnapped. They have consistently, from the first day, said things and behaved in ways that were completely incompatible with that scenario. BUT, the fact that they hid out of sight for a week leaves the possibility open, in my mind, that Isa could be dead at the hands of them or someone they know, because that's when Becky said she curled up and cried. And Sergio had to tell her she "had to get up and show up" at the softball game and other public gigs. If Isa is dead, I think Becky only had that week to mourn before having to go into this act.

But I'm 50/50. No way do I buy the stranger abduction, sex predator, random type crime. If she's alive, I hope Isa's not too afraid or homesick.

I think we will all be surprised when this is solved. And I feel confident that it will be.

And that performance of Ave Maria? uke:

Thank you! After reading all the posts giving Sergio and Becky every shred of doubt, a post that I agree with.

Tucson police said this week that the case was considered an abduction. Some family members, along with most of the sex offenders in the area near the Celis home in the 5600 block of East 12th Street, have been eliminated as suspects, police said. Others, including Isabel's parents, have not been ruled out.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/crime/sergio-celis-sister-urges-compassion-for-isa-s-family/article_df9cc706-5f2d-5cd5-9a3c-2f4f045407ad.html

TPD has ruled out some family, most of the RSO's but not Sergio and Becky. LE tries to rule out the family ASAP, so they can concentrate on ever widening circles away from the family. The fact that TPD has been unable to do so in this case speaks volumes. I am not on the fence on this, never have been, I believe that Sergio is guilty of a crime against his daughter. I believe that Becky is helping to cover said crime. No fence sitting for me.

 

[GutFeeling!]

You mentioned pate earlier today (or last night), and I'll have you know that I make killer chicken liver pate. Serve with matzoh. Mazel Tov!

Party at Bettes!!!!!!

 

[mamamia54]

Then, according to that unnamed source, CPS has been involved with more than one of the Celis kids. If this is true, it is another indicator that something was wrong inside the Celis home.

Either that or someone else was living in the house with the family or something just ain't jivin.

 

[Lava]

What does that have to do with it?

Are you saying all people from Tucson are connected to the drug cartel?:waitasec:

Seriously? I think most people know about Arizona's problem with kidnappings due to cartel issues. This is why MY suspicions of a cartel related incident sparked up right away.

 

[ExpectingUnicorns]

I certainly could have happened. But there is no proof other than Sergio's sister's statement that prior to May, CPS was never in contact with SC.

Just as there is no proof CPS did talk directly to Sergio.

We need to be careful what we are presenting as fact. JMO


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Frayed, I'm going to jump off this post, not because I agree or disagree with anything in it, but because I think it demonstrates the crux of a frustration many posters have tried to express in earlier posts.

What is proof? And what is fact? The mere fact that we can link a statement to a respected MSM article or video doesn't necessarily mean that that makes the statement true without knowing the reliability of the source. Conversely, if a poster shares a life experience that is related (obviously no link available, thank goodness!) it should be evaluated on an equal basis by each reader. Each poster and reader deserves their own set of standards to make their own evaluations and judgements.

As a group are we going to dissolve into such a mess that nothing really counts other than our own perspective? We already question the entire family's accounts, MSM has proven itself unreliable, sources are generally unnamed or biased and what scant info we are given by LE is under suspicion because they might only be releasing statements to put pressure on the family (or Sergio, specifically).

I do certainly understand the danger of disseminating false information and the importance of correcting and stopping that from becoming rampart rumor. But I also respect and enjoy reading posters' various theories and opinions. Brainstorming is a good thing. I just wish we could all get along better, show less impatience with others' mindsets and not feel each idea/opinion that is different than our own must be challenged for proof.

I'm not sure if I am just too much of a "global thinker" or if I'm on the verge of Alzheimer's . . . as I wonder if we have any real, indisputable facts available to us at all other than that sweet Isa is missing.

(Okay, gonna push that "Submit Reply" button now and pray I don't get a TO or too many tomatoes!) :couch: