AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #19

[BetteDavisEyes]

we could go back to covering what breed of dog was in the doorway?


:floorlaugh::floorlaugh:

Or not

 

[time]

OK, when you look at the Celis' house, and then look at the house across the street, do you think that the Celis' house has approximately the same square footage as 5601?

IMO, the Celis' house is 1,000 square feet smaller.

I think the square footage is off...

 

[Patty G]

That is the listing for the other folks/neighbors and under 5601. I believe the mix up might just be the number (5601) and not the rest of the info except maybe sq footage. Possibly the 1.5 v. 1 story. The county record for the Celis' is under 5602 E 12TH.

:floorlaugh: A little bit of this is wrong and a little bit of that. Oh my, what a mess the county records are, IMO.

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

I don't know nothing about the housing market in Arizona, but if these houses are worth $350-$400k today surely the $83k figure was for the purchase of the land in 2002?

I know house prices rise but surely not that much in 10 years!

 

[callyn]

:floorlaugh::truce::hills::ufo:

 

[pieper4]

Here's the Celis' PC recorder's refi, trusts, bank loans, sales etc...on both properties they have owned. fwiw

http://www.recorder.pima.gov/public...987&e=5/23/2012&l=CELIS&f=SERGIO&o=name&v=DOC

This tells me they have been in a word o' financial hurt more than once. I guess it's not that uncommon any more...

In NY, not only can you view the mortgage information, but you can view the actual mortgage docs and amounts online. I even found a few with SS numbers. Whoa.

 

[FrayedKnot]

:floorlaugh: A little bit of this is wrong and a little bit of that. Oh my, what a mess the county records are, IMO.

Old saying. "Good enough for government work!"

 

[Dum-Dum Sucker]

FANTASTIC post, Kat77.

 

[Patty G]

Does anyone know anything about Warranty Deeds?

Got the answer: A warranty deed is one in which the seller, when transferring the title to you, warrants that he owns the property free and clear of all liens.

This is where the $435,000.00 is coming up.

http://www.recorder.pima.gov/public...987&e=5/23/2012&l=CELIS&f=SERGIO&o=name&v=DOC

ETA: The above information is not showing an address.

 

[FrayedKnot]

Does anyone know anything about Warranty Deeds?

This is where the $435,000.00 is coming up.

http://www.recorder.pima.gov/public...987&e=5/23/2012&l=CELIS&f=SERGIO&o=name&v=DOC

I think it just means a sale where the seller owns the property but free and clear, IOW, no mortgage on the property.

I asked Mr. Knot and he thought that was the deal, too, but he knows as much as I do and that's not much!

 

[time]

:floorlaugh: A little bit of this is wrong and a little bit of that. Oh my, what a mess the county records are, IMO.

At least they did get the 'no pool' correct! Geesh.

 

[FrayedKnot]

Guys, seriously, not to get us even more confused, but what if there is a partially finished basement like a MIL suite and that is where the extra square footage comes from??

IDK if there are basements in AZ. I am from FL and hardly ever are there basements, but there's nothing but limestone under there.

Forgive me if this has been gone over already!

 

[luvmydogs]

Guys, seriously, not to get us even more confused, but what if there is a partially finished basement like a MIL suite and that is where the extra square footage comes from??

IDK if there are basements in AZ. I am from FL and hardly ever are there basements, but there's nothing but limestone under there.

Forgive me if this has been gone over already!

Basements are rare here in Tucson. We have this dirt called caliche and it's much to hard to break through. :moo:

 

[pieper4]

Does anyone know anything about Warranty Deeds?

This is where the $435,000.00 is coming up.

http://www.recorder.pima.gov/public...987&e=5/23/2012&l=CELIS&f=SERGIO&o=name&v=DOC

ETA: The above information is not showing an address.

"A warranty deed is one in which the seller, when transferring the title to you, warrants that he owns the property free and clear of all liens," and "A warranty deed is used in most sales of property. The warranty deed says that the grantor is the rightful owner and has the right to transfer the title; that there are no outstanding claims on the property from lenders using it as collateral, or from other creditors, and that the property can't be claimed by someone with a better claim to the title. If any of those claims are wrong, the buyer is entitled to compensation." from http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/20040826a1.asp

 

[gogrannypop]

Dang! We need some new news. Sigh...

 

[pieper4]

So either they (Celis') overpaid for their home (even in that peak RE market) or this record is inaccurate/or related to another property... I think. LOL.

 

[pieper4]

Basements are rare here in Tucson. We have this dirt called caliche and it's much to hard to break through. :moo:

Totally rare here. Out of about 95 homes I've looked at here, only 1 had a basement/cellar. Most of us can't even get our 9 foot grounding rods into the ground to the required depth without major excavation (or cutting the top off. LOL).

 

[Aura]

Not to say there arent homes with basements/cellers, I know the old house Joe Bonanno lived in had one, but I have never been in a house in Arizona that has a celler/basement

 

[johnQpublic]

<modsnip>... From looking at the surrounding properties and having seen 'rehab' area's in AZ it appears that this street has many homes on it that were what are referred to as 'track' homes. In 2004-2005 there was a great deal of 'rehab' property sales. Basically what was going on was properties with defunct homes on them were being sold at reasonably low prices and there was reasonably easy access to demolition / reconstruction loans/grants with the intent of 'rehabing' the area. In Maricopa county the city of El Mirage was completely bought out and rehabed. The street numbers for addresses remain the same but the actual homes on the property change. <modsnip> and the value of the home from whats listed is not necc. what they paid for the home, the land possibly with a junker home on it was sold for 96k then they had a new home built on the property which probably only cost no more than $200 and after having the home apprased for a 2nd it was valued at $435 ... <modsnip>happens with properties in areas when they are run down and then developers start rehabing the area around it by putting in shopping areas and crap. <modsnip>BTW there is no basement and there is no attic. It's a flat roofed concrete slab home.

 

[SmoothOperator]

Prima,

You just said so many of the things that I've been thinking.

After joining a few days ago and reading your posts, I've been trying to gather the courage to venture "off the fence". It's obvious that there are a wide range of opinions here and each scenario seems to have many variations.

There are many who believe that the parents are definitely NOT involved. The suspicions are totally unfounded and this is a stranger abduction. Or, the parents unknowingly did something (drugs or allowing access by the wrong people, etc.) which led to Isa's abduction. In these scenarios, after a month with no ransom demand, the chances of Isa being found alive seem pretty slim.

The other camp includes those who believe that the parents ARE involved and ARE the focus of LE's attention. Some think that Isa is dead (accidentally or deliberately) due to action of someone in the family, and then a fake abduction was staged afterward.

Finally there are those who believe that the abduction was planned and staged, not as a coverup, but a scheme or hoax. It could be for financial reasons, to protect Isa from CPS/another family member, or for many other reasons. In this scenario, Isa would still be alive and hidden somewhere.

I've seen several people here who have posted their lists of what we actually know at this point. But after following this case, I realize that I actually KNOW even less than I originally believed.

I DO believe that LE is deliberately dropping hints that they question the Celis version of the abduction. (I know some here do not agree with this belief)

Early on, LE continually repeated that they had urged the family to speak to the media. LE was asked about how the family was doing. They said that the family was showing "a level of concern" but they wanted them to speak to the media, so we could draw our own conclusions. Why wouldn't LE just say the family was devastated, unless they found something surprising about their behavior?

In the 5/14 press briefing, Villasenor was asked questions on the timeline. About the morning of the abduction he answered "WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TOLD is that BC got up in the morning and went to work and then SC got up and discovered that Isa was missing". IMO, this is implies that LE is not certain that this is what happened.

Also when asked about the increased spotlight on the parents he said "I understand what you're saying about an increased spotlight, but we have said from day one that we have not eliminated any possibility in this case. We're continuing down the same tracks that we started on and have continued this investigation on. From our purpose it's NOT AN INCREASED SPOTLIGHT on any one direction. It's further developments, it's further interviews, it's following up on the investigation."

When asked about LE's relationship with Sergio and Becky, he replied "I'm sure it's somewhat more strained now. We're doing interviews, we're asking VERY POINTED QUESTIONS".

Due to these comments (and many others), I don't see how we can discount LE's continued refusal to eliminate family involvement.

transcript for 5/14 presser: It makes many good points.
AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #14 - Page 52 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community


IMO, if the Celis family was not one of the primary directions in LE's investigation, it would be illogical for them to behave in this way. This case has national media attention, why would they give the Celis family grounds for a gigantic lawsuit, if they don't already have solid information? They act like they already have a theory and they are just waiting to get evidence that will hold up in court (and without actually finding Isa, that's difficult).

I've seen speculation that LE would do this to lull the real perp into a false sense of security. I understand that argument, but why not just act like they don't have ANY good leads? Why would they focus negative attention on an innocent family while they are going through the worst time in their life?

For those of us who feel that LE does NOT fully believe the Celis version of this abduction, then what is certain?

If we can accept the possibility that Sergio or Becky may be deceptive on ANY statement, then how can we take all the other Celis statements as fact?

How many facts do we have that aren't based on Sergio or Becky's statements? Since from 10:30 PM Friday to 8:00 AM Saturday, they say it was just family, we don't have outside witnesses for that time period. So, it looks like we have to look earlier on Friday.

Was Isa at school on Friday? Some have reported that she wasn't, others said she was. I can't remember if LE ever answered that?

How many people reported seeing Isa at the ballgame? One person that I remember talking about Isa at the game was Coach Vega. After the NG interview, many felt that his concern was more focused on Sergio than Isa.

Did LE ever get the ball field video/photos they asked for? Has anyone told us what Isa was wearing that night and who she left with? Did the family take one car or two? I haven't heard of anyone releasing a photo showing Isa at the ballpark on Friday evening.

Some have even questioned whether Becky was at the Celis home that night. The real question is, was Isa home? Did she actually sleep in her bed at the Celis home that night? Is this something that we definitely KNOW?

If an abduction was planned and staged, we don't really know anything after the ball field (assuming there is actual evidence of that).

I'm not implying some terrible motivation for a staged abduction. I desperately hope Isa is alive. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I just don't see them as parents who know or even fear that their child is dead. IMO they don't show the expected "urgency" because their child will come around the corner (Mother's day interview). Becky seems certain that Isa will come home. It's just taking a little longer than she was hoping (recent Isa Vigil).

It is possible to make statements that are true but deceptive because they don't provide all the information. Maybe Becky could have braided Isa's hair before or while watching the ball game. Maybe Sergio asked "Are you hungry?" and was told "No, Daddy, I'm tired" at the game. It would seem reasonable there.

Their answers on the Today Show were not specific with regard to who did what, and when. Did either of them say exactly where and when these things happened? Has anyone told us who actually put Isa to bed and at what time?

I'll stop this rant. It's just that I've been following this case since the first day and looking back I don't feel that I know ANYTHING for certain until TPD arrived at the Celis home on Saturday morning. I do have faith in TPD. I think they know much more than they can say right now. I just hope for Isa's sake and for the community, LE has the evidence they need to act soon.

While Im still doing a pretty crappy job of attempting to get caught up(as ive got to catch up from way back at posts from around #350.. But actually couldn't resist ATLEAST reading the most recent page of posts FIRST, just to ensure a major development hadn't happened.. No such luck).. But it did however include my coming upon your above post that I felt I must comment to how perfectly well thought out, understandable, along with very good points made throughout your post.. And that I appreciate your having stated ALL OF THESE THINGS.(so please in the future don't hesitate to post what is your honest opinion.. Views.. Thoughts..etc.. Nothing to fear and I hate that people have been made to feel that way here in Isa's threads).. I believe we all should be able to state our views and thoughts about the messed up issues of this case.. IMO just because I don't agree with every single of those views or theories doesn't mean that I don't welcome and respect ALL OF THE VIEWS AND THEORIES so long as they are within TOS.. I've repeated this numerous times throughout her threads and feel as tho I'm just a broken record repeating that we all should be able to post what is our personal opinions.. Thoughts.. Theories.. Etc.. But obviously it is still an ongoing issue here in Isa's threads.. IMO its not fair to Isa ABOVE ALL ELSE and we should be able as grown adults to put petty snarkiness and whining and crying aside NOT FOR OUR FELLOW POSTERS(as I fully believe that we should do it for that reason and have repeatedly stated such).. But most importantly for ISA WE SHOULD PUT THE PETTY SNARK, WHINE, AND POUT ASIDE TO LOOK AT ALL THE POSSIBILITIES THAT IMO ARE STILL VIABLE AND ON THE TABLE AS TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO HER..

And just as you so perfectly and eloquently described in your above post there actually is so very little that WE DO KNOW AS FACT IN THIS CASE.. Therefor IMO that leaves all possibilities still on the table, up for debate, and should be able to freely discuss(of course minus the very few that at this point still deemed as against TOS.. Such as accusations of Isa having been molested).. Other than those everyone should be encouraged to speak their mind.. State what is their view on the issues and what tiny modicum of FACTS that we do have available..

I'm on the fence and do not know what or why this has happened to Isa.. I'm stuck here until I have more to work with.. I full well see that there are very concerning issues involving Sergio.. And while I believe many of those concerns can be explained or understood but the PRESENT "voluntary" CPS agreement is very concerning and I personally have yet to see an innocent, easily explainable reason for it.. Therefor it's one main factor that has me look at Sergio with "caution".. Therefor not able to take him at his word.. And that's a very difficult position to be in with regards to it being the actual parent of the missing child.. :sigh:

Anywhoo.. I did not intend to drone on my intent was to say how much I appreciate your post, kat77... And tho I may not agree with each and every view nonetheless I GREATLY appreciate it.. Respect it but most of ALL find the vast MAJORITY to be spot on and excellent, well thought out points that are made about this sad and frustrating case..

Again please don't hesitate in the future at Any time you have an opinion or view about the case TO POST FREELY WHAT THOSE ARE. You will not be attacked for your perfectly reasonable points of which you've stated and I encourage everyone to post all of their thoughts views and opinions regarding precious Isa's frustrating case..


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Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy: