AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #19

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Hi y'all!! After reading through a couple of threads and enjoying your contributions, I thought it was time to chime in here.

I'm a latecomer to this case, even though I live in Tucson and am a veteran armchair sleuth. Classes at Pima start next Tue. :woohoo: , and getting enrolled, etc. has taken up much of my time the last few weeks.

Immediately I distrusted the "intruder through Isa's window" scenario. It seemed like amateurish staging, and TPD did say back on 04/22 that there was NO evidence of foced entry into the house (see KVOA's "complete coverage" page). Plus good ole fashioned horse sense says that the odds of someone snatching her from her bedroom under those conditions (high wall surrounding property, 3 dogs on site, in daylight, etc.) are pretty slim.

I am no fan of TPD, however I DO trust the technology, skills, competence, and professionalism of the FBI and the U.S. Marshals. Too many LE and former LE have stated off the record that Sergio has a major debt to one of the drug cartels, and frankly I believe it (where there's smoke, there's fire). Just because someone puts on a very public face does not mean that they are drug-free, honest, law-abiding, a good parent, or even sane. Many people "project" positive traits onto total strangers just because they have reproduced. I should know -- this is my childhood in a nutshell. I am the product of such parents, and everyone thought they were "pillars of the community" because they were highly functional. In reality, nothing could have been further from the truth.

BTW, just because SC can sing doesn't mean he's not abusing drugs. Smoking is only one form of administration. As for him not having the time, well if the man doesn't work (or only works PT) then that opens up a significant window of free time so keeping coaching, etc. committments is not such a big deal.

In every interview of SC and RC that I have seen, they have exhibited signs of lying. (Several years ago I was fortunate to receive a tutorial from a retired FBI agent who specialized in body language.) That impression of mine has been buttressed by specialists hired by both local and national media. Then there was the telltale interview with local media where SC had his hands completely wrapped around RC's right arm, and he remained as still as a statue so as to prohibit any spontaneous gesticulations. It was glaringly obvious! IF they had passed their lie detector tests, they both would have been screaming it from the rooftops. But we have only silence and evasiveness ("we can't talk about that").

RC has made some truly bizarre statements that just creeped me out. One was something like, "Well, we absolutely don't like being here doing this. But you know what? It doesn't matter... We are here doing it, whatever it takes to bring Isabel home." If it doesn't matter when why bring it up? When your child is missing the focus should be on her, not yourself. "Whatever it takes," right?

It is very "interesting" to me that a nurse and a surgical assistant could afford to buy a $435,000 house. The house has 3802 sq. ft., even though eyeballing it it appears to have about 2400 sq. ft. Also, it has 1.5 stories, and since we don't have attics in Tucson I'm wondering about the "half" story. Is there a fortified underground bunker, and does that account for the missing square footage, the "half" story, and the high price of the house? If SC is a drug dealer that wouldn't be farfetched. The house has been on the brink of foreclosure a couple of times, so their financial picture hasn't been great. To me that is notable because "desperate times require desperate measures."

Speaking of SC being a surg assist, why has his employer not been identified? Why haven't they come forward to show support like TMC did for RC? Why has nobody been able to find SC's state license?

There have been too many creepy things and red flags in this case to list in toto here, but they include: Cousin/Uncle Justin, Isabel reportedly sleeping in her brother's room (for protection/safety from her father?), the CPS involvement, the defensive statements by SC's sister at an inappropriate time, etc.

For about an hour I entertained the hoax theory, but that theory is mutually exclusive with SC being a drug dealer. No drug dealer is going to call LE to his home and risk the subsequent scrutiny (phone call records, e-mails, financial records, etc.) to perpetuate a hoax. It's one or the other, and I don't believe this is a hoax.

I also have not ruled out sexual abuse which culminated in some kind of incident resulting in her death, which then required manufacture of the "kidnapped" tale.

This whole thing stinks like a rotten fish and has from Day One. Something is not right here, and I have to conclude that the public has been fed a line of BS. My prediction is that LE will approach RC and she will agree to supply evidence against SC in order to take him down in exchange for her own complete or partial immunity. Only time will tell if I'm right about that one or not.

Of course, all of the above is just my opinion. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to interacting with you here!

EquineLuvr

Absolutely love your post for I mentioned the cartel from the beginning and was attacked. That is okay though because I too am a local and have heard this from the same reliable sources. It explains a lot in how this case is being handled. I think an arrest will come but they want to put Isa's safety first and they have reason to believe she is alive and SC needs to be out of jail for the time being to increase the chances of getting her back alive. I also believe this is why they are being tight lipped about the evidence they have found. IMO.
 
I couldn't be online for a couple days....and I am totally lost.
I know that I might get slammed and told to just read back but I can't ever have time to catch up.....
Can anyone give me a quick update...anything new?
Where are you Joedotnet?
 
Absolutely love your post for I mentioned the cartel from the beginning and was attacked. That is okay though because I too am a local and have heard this from the same reliable sources. It explains a lot in how this case is being handled. I think an arrest will come but they want to put Isa's safety first and they have reason to believe she is alive and SC needs to be out of jail for the time being to increase the chances of getting her back alive. I also believe this is why they are being tight lipped about the evidence they have found. IMO.

Yep. I got the business, too, for suggesting such a thing, even with some evidence that had some potential.

I haven't brought it up since. There are only some theories that are acceptable, I guess. :(
 
i get ya...

i just like dealing with facts...and so far, we have hardly any....mostly just "thinks" "assumes" "maybes" "he said she said" "probably this or that" and so on....

i think back to baby lisa case and mama irwin talked a lot, so we had a lot of info to chew on....it was also easy to get a feel for the case by her contradictions and all of that....

in this case, we hardly have anything to chew on.....and it drives me nuts. lol

Sorry, I had to go prepare supper and just now got back on line. :)

Oh I am a stickler for the facts too, Prima, and you are right in this case we dont really have that many facts to go on and by the looks of it we wont be getting much anytime soon with LE not even having scheduled PCs anymore. But then LE never told us much of anything anyway. I really believe they dont have a clue who took Isa or where she is and that is why they are coming full circle again checking out the neighborhood empty houses and SOs again.

I really havent kept up with Lisa's case so I cant comment on that one. I had made a promise to myself I wasnt going to get caught up in another missing child case and then had to eat my own words when Sierra and Isa went missing.

IMO
 
Ya know what I think? prima.facie might have the right idea :D We DO need some new information to discuss! The floorplan and square footage debate about the Celis home is getting tiresome :deadhorse:

:cowcouch:

We could have all built our own homes by the time this gets all straightened out.... LOL
 
I couldn't be online for a couple days....and I am totally lost.
I know that I might get slammed and told to just read back but I can't ever have time to catch up.....
Can anyone give me a quick update...anything new?
Where are you Joedotnet?

You havent missed a thing, abstr. I wish we did have some new info.

IMO
 
As far as this stupid property mystery is concerned... From looking at the surrounding properties and having seen 'rehab' area's in AZ it appears that this street has many homes on it that were what are referred to as 'track' homes. In 2004-2005 there was a great deal of 'rehab' property sales. Basically what was going on was properties with defunct homes on them were being sold at reasonably low prices and there was reasonably easy access to demolition / reconstruction loans/grants with the intent of 'rehabing' the area. In Maricopa county the city of El Mirage was completely bought out and rehabed. The street numbers for addresses remain the same but the actual homes on the property change. It's really not some issue to keep trying to unscrew and the value of the home from whats listed is not necc. what they paid for the home, the land possibly with a junker home on it was sold for 96k then they had a new home built on the property which probably only cost no more than $200 and after having the home apprased for a 2nd it was valued at $435 ... I have no idea how the topic of the GD home price has managed to go on and on for 4 Fn pages BUT ENOUGH it's AZ crap happens with properties in areas when they are run down and then developers start rehabing the area around it by putting in shopping areas and crap. Get back on stuff that matters like what evidence is there in this case and matters of the sort, WHO CARES about the property size/value... BTW there is no basement and there is no attic. It's a flat roofed concrete slab home.


Obviously some people here think it's worth investigating and the price came from the county property records when it was sold so it is not some erroneous valuation I don't think.

I have really liked some of your posts, but I think this post is uncalled for.
 
For those with "that" song stuck in their heads...switch to "Knock Three Times"... ;) at least we probably don't need to debate the meaning of that one... :D

Still catching up but had to reply to this

Argargargarghhhhhh I was just getting that first darn song out of my head and you now infected me with a worse brain worm!! We should require warnings on these types of posts!!:banghead::banghead:
:floorlaugh::floorlaugh::floorlaugh::floorlaugh:
 
Equineluvr, Hello and welcome fellow Tucsonan :)

I like your post. I agree with a lot of it. Im still on the fence, but leaning over... I really hate to say I think Sergio had something to do with this, becaue I really dont know what is going on. I do know for a fact Sergio works at a dental/surgery place. I know people he works with and I know that up till Isabel was kidnapped, he worked there. I have no clue as to why his employers havent come forward publically. everything I've heard from the people from his work think very highly of him, that he was always a happy, caring person. I do know some of the people he works with have been in contact with him, and have been supporting him like helping him cope with everything (not supporting financially). I dont know him or his family personally and have never met them. I know what someone perceives to be may not be the real person. I really hate to think he had anything to do with this, but I do agree, this smells funny and has since day one. Some thing is really not right.
 
LOL I love the song, "Knock Three Times"... but now I am singing it over and over in my head.
 
Oh, and earlier I said I would look around town today for ribbons, I did not see any at all. Posters and flyers all over the place, but no ribbons.
 
I am just not sure about what happen yet. I do think it happen in the home, what ever happen. And possibly one outsider.
 
It's called "infill" building when a new home has been built in an older established track home area. Where there's a lot, we build! Usually done when building slows.

Rehab is rehabilitating older homes, apartments, duplexes to revive them. Not building a new home as the Celis' live in. FYI jmo
 
House size/price question:

Apparently there's continuing discussion on the house size/price. I know this may not be important to us, but it still keeps coming up. I admit that I haven't been able to keep up with everything while I've been typing.

After information given yesterday, I went back and looked in thread #5 at your discussions on the Assessor information and floorplan. This was very early in the case (April 26). Was the purpose of the research to determine an actual floorplan before media released their plan?

The more accurate plan available now at the Assessor's, Images, Plan link is the only version that I had ever seen. Has it been available all along? I didn't look until 2 days ago. Where did the plan that MvD posted April 26 (3802 feet, 2 story) come from? I don't know how to find it at the Assessor.

Is it possible that the Assessor got so much negative publicity after the Celis case broke that they either removed or replaced MvD's plan with the current, more accurate version after April 26? (or are they both still available now). Replacing one plan file with another is probably pretty quick. I think the actual Assessor updates, like square footage, could take longer because they seem to lag by as much as a year.

There are some comments now about the Celis family buying their home in 2002 for $83,500. IMO that is really the information for the neighbor across the street (5601). Using the "History" link at the assessor, I was able to look back to 2002 on that property and see that when the neighbor bought 5601, it wasn't just a vacant lot. It showed an assessment for land plus improvements (structure). It also shows that several years later the assessed value doubled, so they may have done a tear down and then had a new home built.

I agree that there are some mixed up details, but the Recorder supports the Assessor on the Celis purchase price and date. It shows a Warranty Deed to Rebecca and Sergio Celis, recorded on March 7, 2006 with a purchase price of $435,000.

I assume there's been previous discussion about 5601 Cooper. It looks just like the Celis house and the floorplan appears to be a mirror image of the more accurate Celis plan. The difference is 5601 Cooper says 2288 feet . The Celis plan seems to include 2288 feet plus an "Optional LA" (laundry?) as living space while 5601 includes that as part of garage (probably W/D located in garage). This extra space would increase the footage by a small amount. Above the Celis drawing we see 2350 feet and "PLAN/MLS" but it doesn't say that on 5601 Cooper plan. That might mean that the Celis home's 2350 feet is a MLS estimate that the county took from a previous MLS listing.

I think the confusion at the Assessor's office is more complicated than just transposing some information between 5601 and 5602.

IMO the county didn't just mix up the Celis property with the house across the street. The specifics are too different to just be numbers transposed on the wrong property. The square footage on one is 3802 while the other is 3592. One says 7 rooms while the other says 8, one says 4 patio spaces while the other says 7, one says 1.5 story while the other says 2.

If you look at the plan for 5601 Cooper (just like Celis house) you see a number "#330 4/1/04" on the lower left of the page.

When you look at the 3802 foot plan MvD provided April 26, it has the number "#302 10/05" at the bottom.

These could be house plan numbers. The 2 story across the street may have a similar #3xx plan number but their plan page is strange (maybe 2nd page of 2 and we can't see the 1st).

Since all the houses were built around 2005 and go back to the same previous owner, I think many of us believe that one builder built all three homes.

Maybe that builder originally submitted the #302 (3802 square foot) plan for county approval at 5602. Then financing could have fallen through or something went wrong. The builder could have then gone back and submitted the #330 plan (like 5601 Cooper). This smaller home would be much more likely to sell as a spec home in a mid-priced neighborhood.

This scenario could leave the county with 2 plans for the Celis home in their files.

The Assessor details may never have been correctly updated to reflect the home that was actually built.

And looking at the Treasurer, it does look like the Celis home's taxes have been at least $500 higher each year than 5601 Cooper.
 
It doesn't even matter if you DO have a link, sometimes. If it's not popular, then your link must be wrong. Gah.

Ain't that the truth. Adding to that, if the MSM info doesn't match someone's theory, then they question the credibility of the station/paper etc that posted it.
 
One of the many wonderful things about WS, is we are allowed to discuss our theories without having a reason why we dig deeper into some issues, in comparison to other areas of a case.

We also have managed to uncover lots of things when we dig into an area of a case, that some may not be interested in and have found information, of which, later comes forth when more evidence is released.

We have also been able to carefully sift through rumors, and put them on the back-burner, and manage to keep ourselves in check while we have them sitting there.

What we have also managed to do, in thousands and thousands of threads, is to be respectful to one another, and not force finger-pointing because some do not respect others theories.

If there is a subject in this case that some are not interested, just move on and don't read it, or at least agree to disagree and move on.
 
:floorlaugh:
Please provide a link that unpopular links are wrong or I won't take it as fact.


For fun, let's discuss the difference between a quit-claim deed and a warranty deed. Please provide a link tied in a yellow ribbon carried by a bilingual mixed breed dog pushing a stroller.


I love it
 
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