I have a question for everyone who thinks this is a hoax: When Isabel is found, the hoax will be revealed right away. Right? Now, do you think the parents realize that..and want to be infamous for orchestrating a missing child hoax or do they think the entire country will buy the story that Isabel was really kidnapped and held for weeks/months? And how long do they think people and LE will buy this "rescued child" story?
I'll try to answer your question. IMO the people who believe that this may be a hoax think that Sergio and Becky simply DID NOT expect something to go wrong and to end up under LE scrutiny.
I believe that some one here previously mentioned that Sergio might be delusional, egotistical, or have a disconnect with reality. I think this comment was made when we were discussing the worldwide prayer event and 9/11 comment.
A person with this type of personality could think that he would be smart enough to actually get away with something like this. I don't think anyone commits a crime assuming that they are going to be caught. They always think that they are in some way special, smart enough, lucky enough, etc...
I know it would be naive to think a hoax would work. Some have said that Sergio and Becky sometimes act like teenagers. In a way that's how they strike me. What if they thought they had come up with a great idea, didn't think it through very well, and ended up in too deep to back down? There are so many things that they have said, that just don't make much sense otherwise.
In the radio interview Sergio said "This is gonna be...It already feels like it's been a long road..." Maybe that wasn't just a slip of the tongue. It appeared that he started to say "this is gonna be a long road". But if he is not in control of when it will end, why would he assume that it will be a long road? Isa could be found at any moment. On the Today Show, Sergio talked about LE's efforts. He said "we understand that they cant bring false hope". How did he know it would only be "false hope"? Most parents would have been praying for and expecting real answers.
Even the Bring Isa Home website and slogan seems strange to me. The emphasis is completely on getting Isa's face out there and raising "awareness" (whatever that means). They talk about bringing her home, but not about "actually finding Isa".
If this was a hoax, I'm sure they had a plan so Isa could turn up safe somewhere and everything would work out. I don't really assume that the boys knew about a plan. Maybe the parent's thought Isa was young enough that she wouldn't be able to say anything "believable" after she came home.
But they didn't expect to be under LE's scrutiny from the beginning. At first, the family pointed to the window as the entry point, but then a few days later Sergio wasn't so sure. Becky went to work at 7:30, 7:00, or 6:30. They just seem to trying to stay ahead of developments that they didn't anticipate.
I have never implied that I think that this family had particularly nefarious motives. I don't think they would consider a hoax to be a serious crime. If that's what this is, they wouldn't actually be hurting anyone (from their point of view). They would just be making a false police report. That happens frequently, even in a custody battle, a divorce proceeding, or just to get back at someone.
I know people don't want to talk about the Balloon Boy, but that father did actually attempt to get attention by planning a hoax. Looking back, we wonder why he didn't realize that his family wasn't likely to be able to keep that secret. But people do strange things. Sergio does seem naive to me, and there was a chance that Isa could eventually be "found" somewhere, without raising too much suspicion (if LE had just done a less thorough investigation and the public had continued supporting the family).
But even if someone is caught planning a hoax, the Balloon Boy's dad was only sentenced to 90 days in jail. (he was supposed to serve the first 30 days of his sentence in jail and then the last 60 days he could spend weekends and nights in jail so that he could work during the day.) The mother got 20 days in jail (which could be served over 10 weekends, after the father served his sentence).
People want publicity and attention and then they see that those sentences were a slap on the wrist (and that is assuming they actually get caught). They also watch Casey Anthony and her parents (and others) get rich.
Some have said that this family wouldn't want to be remembered as the parents "who staged a fake abduction". I just don't believe that when planning a crime most people think that far ahead, and even consider how they will be remembered.
If this was a hoax, maybe they felt that the upside was good enough and the chances of getting caught were actually small. Remember Becky's "bring it on" statement and her confidence that no one would find anything. And based on the sentencing of the Balloon Boy's parent's, maybe the risk of lying to LE, just didn't seem to be that high.
I doubt that anyone was initially thinking much about a $1,000,000 investigation and any possible restitution. The calm 911 call could make sense if Sergio was just going through the motions and reporting the "abduction" as part of a plan.