AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #25

[Lark2]

This theory is coming up currently in the Hailey Dunn case too. Rumors and accusations that she was taken by a skin-head biker gang for her family's drug debts.

And also a similar theory going around in the Lyric and Elizabeth case--the missing cousins from Iowa. Their family had a history of meth arrests and were
in the middle of court cases which may have involved the father narcking out some of his partners.

So these theories make sense logically, but I wonder if they are realistic.

I hear you, but Alicia's an inside player. TPD has no doubt interviewed her several times, so she has had contact there, and it sounds like she has friends and family that work for/with them.

It makes sense to me that TPD suspect family involvement because they haven't searched anywhere except early on for a body.

 

[Donjeta]

Well, I don't know what happened but it bothers me a little if TPD gives status updates of the investigation to an ex neighbor. Why would she need to know? If it's okay to publish then tell it to a reporter.

Maybe it was her theory and she presented it to the police acquaintance and s/he said something along the lines, "Yeah, well, we're looking at everything", not wanting to deny or confirm, and it became a confirmation in her mind.

 

[Dr. Know?]

Somewhere there was video of AS, I think, that said in the first few days either locally or on NG, that she had heard that the family was involved in drugs or dealing drugs?

I'll try searching tomorrow because it is going to bug the heck out of me if I don't.

I think if it was any inside info it is more like what Donj suggests.

As for SC, if there's no further information to move on from TPD, well...seems to be what many think. The info stopped with SC & his removal from the boys.

jmo

 

[pieper4]

Def remember that clip Dr. Know.

 

[kat77]

Dr.Know,

The quote that I remember is:
"I've heard speculations that the family is involved in drugs, the cartel," Stardevant says. "But that's just what people are saying. Who really knows?"

From:
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18306084/finding-isabel-the-untold-investigation

It may have also appeared in other reports.

 

[TxLady2]

This theory is coming up currently in the Hailey Dunn case too. Rumors and accusations that she was taken by a skin-head biker gang for her family's drug debts.

And also a similar theory going around in the Lyric and Elizabeth case--the missing cousins from Iowa. Their family had a history of meth arrests and were
in the middle of court cases which may have involved the father narcking out some of his partners.


So these theories make sense logically, but I wonder if they are realistic.

I have no idea what the street value of drugs are, I might be totally shocked, if I did. BUT, here's where that theory doesn't compute for me. People who are buying drugs for their own use, usually get them from a small-time drug pusher. They don't buy them from the bigger dealers, probably don't even know them. UNLESS they are pushing drugs themselves, and there is no indication that these parents were selling drugs, except for Misty and Dan, and that was several years ago, am I right?
Also, small-time drug pushers don't accept credit, they want their money up front. A few bigger dealers might trust a pusher for the money for a day or two, but generally they want their payment up front as well. But if the pusher owes the dealer that much money, how is kidnapping the child of a random customer going to affect the small-time pusher? If they have to exact 'punishment' on somebody, it's going to be on him... not a regular customer.
Besides, the big dealer doesn't necessarily know who the pusher's customers are anyway, and doesn't care.
I can't get that theory to make sense to me. Maybe I just don't know enough about the drug business.

 

[pieper4]

I have no idea what the street value of drugs are, I might be totally shocked, if I did. BUT, here's where that theory doesn't compute for me. People who are buying drugs for their own use, usually get them from a small-time drug pusher. They don't buy them from the bigger dealers, probably don't even know them. UNLESS they are pushing drugs themselves, and there is no indication that these parents were selling drugs, except for Misty and Dan, and that was several years ago, am I right?
Also, small-time drug pushers don't accept credit, they want their money up front. A few bigger dealers might trust a pusher for the money for a day or two, but generally they want their payment up front as well. But if the pusher owes the dealer that much money, how is kidnapping the child of a random customer going to affect the small-time pusher? If they have to exact 'punishment' on somebody, it's going to be on him... not a regular customer.
Besides, the big dealer doesn't necessarily know who the pusher's customers are anyway, and doesn't care.
I can't get that theory to make sense to me. Maybe I just don't know enough about the drug business.

There is a fairly low level of drug sales that entails "credit". It doesn't take tons of product to get credit. At all. It's all about marketing. You, as a higher level dealer want to encourage your underlings to take some risks. So you offer credit for a key (kilo). Not only do you not have to front the cash to buy, you keep a little bit for yourself. The payback timeframe could easily be months depending on the dealer and the market.

Then there's the laundering aspect of the business. Any deposit over 10K (I believe it still is) has to be reported by the bank to the IRS and other agencies, so the dealers look for partnerships to silently move $7500, $8000, etc. through a legitimate business or account in order to convert all those $20 bills into larger denominations to buy. Those folks don't even need to sell or be involved in the actual movement or transactions of the product. They just pass money through their bank accounts.

In the cartels, the message is everything. "Hold the kid til he pays"; "hold the kid til he gets the message that we're not playing around"; "hold the kid in lieu of payment at the debtor's request"; "shoot the family dog"; "his cousin's wife stiffed us and she has no other family we can find" are not uncommon scenarios.

Then are are familial connections. "Trust Joe. His brother is key to our endeavor/business". I suspect this is the likeliest scenario, IF there is one at play here.

BWDIK? IMO.

 

[SapphireSteel]

There's always that sort of gossip, they don't look like drug dealers/users to me *unlike some parental units I could mention* so I'm taking it with a grain of salt.

If they were going to be abusing drugs, it would likely be prescription, them both being health care workers and all.

:moo:

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Any news about the release of the search warrants? I believe that the current extension ends this month unless TPD seeks yet another.

 

[rachaellouise]

Am I the only one who thinks the speculation about cartels is because the family are hispanic? It seems a bit out there and ridiculous.

 

[jennapuppy]

Am I the only one who thinks the speculation about cartels is because the family are hispanic? It seems a bit out there and ridiculous.

One of the cartel members in the Fast and Furious scandal has the last name "Celis". That's partly responsible for the speculation. Also, we tend to hear this anytime there's a high-profile murder/missing persons case in a state that borders Mexico.

 

[pieper4]

Any news about the release of the search warrants? I believe that the current extension ends this month unless TPD seeks yet another.

My emails to local reporters on this remain unanswered. :/ I rather take that to mean there will be/has been another extension request.

 

[pieper4]

To me the hink-factor related to possible illegal activities in this mess is not Hispanic at all. All sorts/races of people get caught up in the greed of illegal trafficking.

 

[Boodles]

Glamorous rumours indeed...but the truth is probably far more mundane and close to home.

"Glamorous" is not a word I would use to describe any rumors about these cases, regardless of its context.

 

[Boodles]

Oh Isabel, where are you little one? I hope you are not suffering. <3

 

[sweetsavi]

I've been pondering this case non stop today. She vanished on 4/20....the biggest drug day of the year. Definitely makes me think someone got high, did something crazy, and Isabel was killed in the process. I just wonder who? Neighbor, sibling, parent?

I have Elizabeth Smart to thank for my slight hope that she will be found alive soon, but it's sure not looking good.

 

[thefragile7393]

To me the hink-factor related to possible illegal activities in this mess is not Hispanic at all. All sorts/races of people get caught up in the greed of illegal trafficking.

Unfortunately not all people think that way. People hear "Missing child, arizona, hispanic, near Mexico border" people are going going to assume drugs, cartel, etc.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I've been pondering this case non stop today. She vanished on 4/20....the biggest drug day of the year. Definitely makes me think someone got high, did something crazy, and Isabel was killed in the process. I just wonder who? Neighbor, sibling, parent?

I have Elizabeth Smart to thank for my slight hope that she will be found alive soon, but it's sure not looking good.

4/20 is only a "drug day" for medical marijuana activists.

Do you guys have a lot of problems with Medical Marijuana Activists celebrating their big day by abducting little girls?

:waitasec:

 

[SapphireSteel]

"Glamorous" is not a word I would use to describe any rumors about these cases, regardless of its context.

In comparision to the more common known causes of a child missing from her bedroom, a Drug Cartel stealing her for what...revenge? payment? certainly is a glamorous scenario.

<modsnip>

 

[Knox]

4/20 is only a "drug day" for medical marijuana activists.

Do you guys have a lot of problems with Medical Marijuana Activists celebrating their big day by abducting little girls?

:waitasec:

Not true ... I saw many posts on younger people's facebook pages referencing 420, and it wasn't for "medical" purposes.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=420

I do agree however, that the date Isa disappeared had nothing to do with someone who was smoking pot.