AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 8

[dsntslp]

I find it kind of strange that ground searches are not done.

I took a Google walk around the Park areas to the West of the home (Straight shot W on 12th and the huge area W of that as well) and from what I can tell that is some pretty rough terrain for the average citizen. Are the mountainous areas as steep as some of it looks on satellite view? If so, LE does not need citizens falling/rolling off mountains or getting lost and requiring rescue themselves. I think that anybody that searches those areas should be properly trained. Also, there is the crime scene contamination issue. There is also the issue of people potentially planting 'evidence' for their 15 minutes of fame. Remember the Disney dress in the case that keeps on giving? After listening to the scanner thread downstairs I have concluded that LE in Tucson really earn their wages and are deserving of a raise! JMO

Of note: The singer in the song video for Isabel says she went to school with Isabels "Uncles", plural.

 

[marazul]

A couple of points this morning

1. The drug kidnapping and revenge on the uncle kidnapping theories. IMO, not to step on any toes, but this seems SO far fetched to me. I understand that in known high dollar drug rings, things like this can happen, and in the old school mafia, but LE would know if this family had any such ties, the media would know, the community would know. Also, I can't fathom someone traveling states away to set up a child kidnapping as revenge for petty personal use drug activity. If this was a million dollar drug ring, maybe, but a record of a single guy who appears to be a non violent recreational drug user, what are you suggesting, that he owes someone 200 bucks so they decided to kidnap his niece as revenge? That maybe he used to help someone deal small doses of marijuana and decided to move, and that made them so angry that they decided to kidnap his niece as revenge? That is way too out there for me.

I honestly think this will turn out to be what most of these cases are, either the family did it (which I still don't believe), or a RSO or NonRegSO or a first time offender sexual predator took her.

The one part that makes me pause is that if a RSO wanted to grab a kid, you would think there might be "easier" ways, kids that walk to or from the bus stop alone, etc, but I don't think that this means the family was targeted because of illicit crime, it might be that she was the easiest target for this specific perp. Why? Dunno, maybe he lived close and wanted a quick transport. Maybe he was walking home and saw the family get back in at night, saw them carrying a sleeping girl in, watched the lights go on and off, and came back to grab her. Maybe he had his eye on her from the ball field or something. I remember during the Jorelys R case everyone thought RB (the perp) was casing her out because she played outside unsupervised, turns out he picked her because she left a roller skate outside and he decided to lure her with promise of returning her lost skate. It could be that random, a man with a desire to take a child saw this child and for some reason either thought she would be the easiest target, or wanted her enough to risk the things that made her more difficult.

2. slightly OT..We have a fence, and we had to break in our back door one night because my kids were at their grandmothers, my husband and I went out for my birthday, we took a limo, I thought he brought his housekeys, he thought I brought mine in my clutch, we get home at 2am and no keys. So he jumped the fence and broke in the back door. That episode had me thinking, do fences keep intruders out, or do they give intruders privacy to break in back doors or windows? My fence is for my dog and for my family's privacy, but would an intruder pick my house over a neighbor's because he would be hidden from view while breaking in? Scary stuff!!

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Unless there is a major break in this case - Isabel located alive or body found - this story will likely fade into the background by the end of the week. LE will cease daily pressers - they're already down to once daily. If the parents won't appear on news or talk shows, there will soon be little to say about this missing child. I respect TPD for protecting the integrity of their investigation and hope that they are doing what is in the best interest of everyone concerned. :moo:

 

[PAXIMUS]

Have the parents "lawyered-up" yet? Even if it's not official, perhaps they are being advised by family/friends who have told them not to speak to the media. :moo:

Lawyering up is not a bad thing, it is commonly what intelligent people do and it does not imply any guilt nor should it.

If they do talk people pick apart everything they say, what they are wearing, whether they hug and kiss enough to everyone's satisfaction, have their sexuality questioned etc. If they do not talk then everyone assumes they have something to hide.

Damned if they do damned if they dont. The public is fickle and ridiculous.

 

[Salem]

STOP!!!!! STOP NOW! Do NOT POST PICTURES OF UNKNOWN MINORS! I have posted warnings in Isabel's thread previously about mentioning or discussing other minors. If you can't post a baseball schedule, why would you think it was okay to post a picture of some totally, unrelated, and innocent child?

No more warnings - just TOs. This is serious. Please remember that the goal is to PROTECT, not EXPOSE.

Thanks,

Salem

 

[Lark2]

Unless there is a major break in this case - Isabel located alive or body found - this story will likely fade into the background by the end of the week. LE will cease daily pressers - they're already down to once daily. If the parents won't appear on news or talk shows, there will soon be little to say about this missing child. I respect TPD for protecting the integrity of their investigation and hope that they are doing what is in the best interest of everyone concerned. :moo:

Bette, before this case fades away, I think you're going to see LE begin to systematically and strategically release information - all the information we seek here - as a way to keep the pressure on and tips coming in. IMO, that info will probably cast suspicion on certain family members. Probably soon after that, the family will cease talking altogether.

I read that LE is awaiting the results of detailed forensics from the FBI crime lab. That could also change everything.

 

[galiuro]

There are 3 mountain ranges that more or less surround Tucson and a fourth range not so far to the south...the ones to the west are the smallest of the bunch but they are steep rugged terrain. The others are fairly tall 9k ranges that are even more so...no,you do not want your average citizen traipsing about. The desert area are just as bad, with the heat coming on...

The city itself has plenty of places to hide a person in...I truly do hope they have scoured the washes....

 

[marazul]

Picture link isn't work for me.

I may be wrong, but I am not sure pics of unidentified minors are allowed here... I am sure there are lots of girls that look similar to Isa, but their parents might not want their pics linked in such forums. JMO.

 

[dsntslp]

There are 3 mountain ranges that more or less surround Tucson and a fourth range not so far to the south...the ones to the west are the smallest of the bunch but they are steep rugged terrain. The others are fairly tall 9k ranges that are even more so...no,you do not want your average citizen traipsing about. The desert area are just as bad, with the heat coming on...

The city itself has plenty of places to hide a person in...I truly do hope they have scoured the washes....

Thank you. I thought so even from satellite views. It's why I did not even take the time to look at topo maps and elevations. From first look it appeared to me that they would never want the average citizen out there. A disaster waiting to happen, if you will. IMO

 

[Salem]

Could you take a picture of it and post it?

No, she/he may not take a picture and upload it. She/he may supply links to where the information may be found - but picutures of unknown minors cannot be posted here.

I understand the child looks like Isabel and in the search for Isabel - it could be very important - so links are okay, but no pictures.

Thanks,

Salem

 

[Thinkzerz]

I may be wrong, but I am not sure pics of unidentified minors are allowed here... I am sure there are lots of girls that look similar to Isa, but their parents might not want their pics linked in such forums. JMO.

I link did work however i didn't post the picture.

 

[SpongeBathHotPants]

I'm just playing devils advocate here not trying to start anything. If it was her why would the perp take her to a game that was on TV and sit her behind the players box where cameras would for sure catch her? Just MOO

 

[thefragile7393]

There is nothing remotely mountain or huge terrain-related near their home...it is smack in the middle of the city for the most part. Catalina and Rincon mountain ranges are a good distance away. If a search was going to expand that far then yeah, makes sense you don't want public to go looking. You'd have to travel pretty far to get to those points....plenty of flat city streets in between

Sent from my SGH-T989 using Tapatalk 2

 

[ehough22]

Lawyering up is not a bad thing, it is commonly what intelligent people do and it does not imply any guilt nor should it.

If they do talk people pick apart everything they say, what they are wearing, whether they hug and kiss enough to everyone's satisfaction, have their sexuality questioned etc. If they do not talk then everyone assumes they have something to hide.

Damned if they do damned if they dont. The public is fickle and ridiculous.

With the disclaimer of, of course we never know until we're in the situation: if my child were missing and I had nothing to do with it, I could really give a flying fig what people say about me. Say all those things about me, but look for my child while you're at it. I could truly care less- nothing matters but finding that child. And once again, of course we don't know what that feels like, but I honestly cannot picture myself caring more about my own image than publicizing my child's plight.

Damned if they do, risk losing their child forever if they don't.

And personally, I don't read their reluctance to speak as guilt, necessarily. I just think they are being naive and misguided to think it wouldn't be a huge help.

 

[PAXIMUS]

There are 3 mountain ranges that more or less surround Tucson and a fourth range not so far to the south...the ones to the west are the smallest of the bunch but they are steep rugged terrain. The others are fairly tall 9k ranges that are even more so...no,you do not want your average citizen traipsing about. The desert area are just as bad, with the heat coming on...

The city itself has plenty of places to hide a person in...I truly do hope they have scoured the washes....

Yea that is what people dont understand this isnt Florida, you cant have people wandering around the desert in this heat having heat stroke that will cause more problems than it will solve.

TPD brought the BORDER PATROL in to search the desert areas and they are doing so as we speak because that is what they are experienced doing.

 

[mijamawi]

I just noticed on my Yahoo page that Isabel Celis is in the top 10 "Trending now."

 

[dsntslp]

My first impression is that the girl is related to one of the players - front row seats. I know zero about Hockey, are front row seats hard to get for that teams games?

She might be able to be ruled out by viewing video from earlier games, if she attended.

IMO

 

[dsntslp]

There is nothing remotely mountain or huge terrain-related near their home...it is smack in the middle of the city for the most part. Catalina and Rincon mountain ranges are a good distance away. If a search was going to expand that far then yeah, makes sense you don't want public to go looking. You'd have to travel pretty far to get to those points....plenty of flat city streets in between

Sent from my SGH-T989 using Tapatalk 2

Going from my fallible memory here but I thought I had it mapped as less than ten minutes away by vehicle...
Will grab links and screenies, bbs.

7.7 miles but 20 minutes (traffic)

http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=5...;Fb6a6wEd9rRg-Q&t=h&mra=dme&mrsp=3&sz=12&z=10

 

[TNGirl615]

My first impression is that the girl is related to one of the players - front row seats. I know zero about Hockey, are front row seats hard to get for that teams games?

She might be able to be ruled out by viewing video from earlier games, if she attended.

IMO

They are quite expensive but anyone can purchase them. I know it may seem silly to take a missing girl to a nationally televised game but you never know and I had to put it out there because she looked just like Isa.

 

[PAXIMUS]

With the disclaimer of, of course we never know until we're in the situation: if my child were missing and I had nothing to do with it, I could really give a flying fig what people say about me. Say all those things about me, but look for my child while you're at it. I could truly care less- nothing matters but finding that child. And once again, of course we don't know what that feels like, but I honestly cannot picture myself caring more about my own image than publicizing my child's plight.

Damned if they do, risk losing their child forever if they don't.

And personally, I don't read their reluctance to speak as guilt, necessarily. I just think they are being naive and misguided to think it wouldn't be a huge help.

That is precisely why they are staying out of the way and letting TPD and the FBI do its job. The focus should be on the little girl and not the parents unless there is evidence to suggest their involvement and I havent seen any yet.