CA CA - Bryce Laspisa, 19, Castaic, 30 Aug 2013 - #6

[sarx]

I'm going to post what I tend to say often in these cases where dogs were used but the person was not found....

Dogs are just a tool, and the only time we can truly be sure that any of them were in fact on the right trail is when they lead us to something of significance, like the person, a trail of clothing, items left behind, etc.

In the event that that doesn't happen, then we must, or I should say, should, only take that information as one possibility, not as absolute fact, as there is no way to prove or verify that they were in fact correct.

If you know me on here, you know that I am a huge believer in dogs in SAR work, I also am not going to put full stock in any one resource unless they find me the person I've been looking for. Make sense?

I say this because I am seeing a lot of focus being put on one team's trail being discounted and another team's being latched onto, for really no better reason than that the one makes more sense to people (lost person behavior does NOT always make sense). Since we really know so little about what transpired I caution against focusing too much on any one thing.

MOO, carry on.

 

[Quester]

Hi sarx! :wave:

Glad you're here! Just wanted to point out our timeline, in the event you haven't seen it. Link is below in my signature block.

To me, this case has haunting parallels to the LLomax case, more so after BL went missing than the events leading up to - however, there are still a lot of blanks and unanswered questions in the days leading up to his MP status so who knows if there are additional similarities to the LL case there as well. (I'm still haunted by the LL case and the length of time it took to find her.)

Hope you can help find BL!

 

[SDHELPS]

I'm going to post what I tend to say often in these cases where dogs were used but the person was not found....

Dogs are just a tool, and the only time we can truly be sure that any of them were in fact on the right trail is when they lead us to something of significance, like the person, a trail of clothing, items left behind, etc.

In the event that that doesn't happen, then we must, or I should say, should, only take that information as one possibility, not as absolute fact, as there is no way to prove or verify that they were in fact correct.

If you know me on here, you know that I am a huge believer in dogs in SAR work, I also am not going to put full stock in any one resource unless they find me the person I've been looking for. Make sense?

I say this because I am seeing a lot of focus being put on one team's trail being discounted and another team's being latched onto, for really no better reason than that the one makes more sense to people (lost person behavior does NOT always make sense). Since we really know so little about what transpired I caution against focusing too much on any one thing.

MOO, carry on.

Makes perfect sense...thank you! As you obviously have experience with SAR and dogs perhaps you can give an opinion as to where you would search given the information (or lack of) at hand?

ETA: Do you work with KlaasKids?

 

[Amity]

Do the pictures convince you of a roll type accident though? Looks like slid/slide to me.
I'm no expert on car accidents but shouldn't a vehicle that rolled have damage to the roof and possibly hood as well?

I have nothing constructive to add about Bryce and possible whereabouts so I've just been reading since this topic started.

When I got to the post with the pictures of the vehicle and clicked on them, my heart double skipped........seeing the side of the vehicle brought back the accident my great-niece was in two years ago with the same type of damage to her vehicle.

My niece's daughter was traveling down I5 toward San Diego. A small pickup truck swerved (turns out it was a drunk driver) and she automatically swerved to avoid the truck. She swerved too far and went right over the right side of the freeway, down an embankment.
Plenty of witnesses and several of them parked, ran down the embankment and tried to keep her talking while she was trapped in her SUV.
One witness followed the truck until they got the license plate number and called it in.
During the investigation process by LE and prosecutor team, it was found that the SUV "might" have rolled once but all the damage on the side of the SUV was due to the SUV skidding/sliding on it's side all the way down the embankment. The embankment at that part of the I5 freeway looks very, VERY similar to the embankment in the pictures posted by Bryce's uncle, although different type of foliage/brush but still very similar brush.

 

[Voice4theSilent]

Amanda - I was just going to post the same as you said. He entered at 2:09am, got distracted talking to mom on phone (?) and then drove back out and parked "somewhere" and slept for the 2 hours 15 minutes; woke up and took the wrong turn going back to the freeway, and did the uturn as you say...



good thought there Voice4theSilent!! could be true also...

Thanks Dragracerz for all your updates here, otherwise there would be a LOT of crazy theories going on, if we didn't have all the facts! Appreciate you posting the picture of the car - but as someone above said - is there a picture of the car from driver's side??

Thanks again!! :seeya:

BBM
The only thing that makes me doubt that he woke up and took a wrong turn and used the tower location to make a u-turn is that, from where I understand the camera to be (and I don't think the location has been confirmed yet, unless I am mistaken), he would have figured out pretty quickly he was going in the wrong direction after his nap on the west side of the location of the camera. The camera was fairly close to stores, restaurants, (civilization) and the location of the tower where he crashed was a pretty good distance away (over several miles) of dark road and no civilization. I also, unless the area has changed dramatically, see close to a dozen better, safer, more practical places to make an easy U-turn east of the camera location on Lake Hughes Road (or even slightly off of Lake Hughes Road) rather than the odd location he ended up crashing from.

Just making an observation.....he had over two hours of unaccounted time in between the first and the second times the camera caught him driving by the lake. He could have turned around the first time, gotten back on the freeway, drove down to almost anywhere in Los Angeles or surrounding area, picked someone up, met a friend, etc. and then went back to the Castaic area. Anything is a possibility.

I don't know exactly how phone pings work. Does anyone know if the family can request a history of where the phone pinged that night (after the fact) from AT&T? Might clear up why it took him so long to get to Castaic from Buttonwillow, when he got to the rest stop after leaving Chico, and where he spent those two hours+ before crashing his car.

 

[SCV_EagleJ]

The post from dragracerz on pictures of the car - are post #356 IF CatFancier doesn't delete any posts...

Also, SCV_EagleJ - on your picture post of #264, can you "somehow" take the dog scent picture of dragracerz' post #350 and combine ALL that stuff?? Would be VERY much appreciated! Great picture of all the stuff combined! :seeya:

oh, and dragracerz - can you get a hold of Officer Hernandez that talked with Bryce on the "check" at the hotel?? And find out exactly WHERE he (Bryce) was? Parking lot? street? rest stop?? :seeya:

NP. Ill upload it when I get home

 

[sreshowtime]

I'm curious. Assume for a moment that Bryce, for whatever reason, did not leave the Castaic Lake recreation area-in general.
If he could be found some where in a proximity of where the vehicle was found <sadly, I am afraid at this point>....where is ONE place , you would say look for him?

So who wants to maybe help ...and try this?? If you want to....

Here is the approximate spot the vehicle was found
34.518884, -118.597031

copy & paste that in google map ( unless you want to use Google Earth)

you can zoom in and take a look around...Mr Google man can walk on some roads

put your thinking caps on- critical thinking and commonsense

Find a spot, right click, left click LatLng Marker, copy and paste that coordinate & post
No explanations/reasons theories- just a coordinate
short sweet simple

does not have to be exact spot to a T

I would like to see what others may be thinking and how it may correlate with my own project...TIA if you care to

 

[Quester]

Coordinates placed me in the middle of the South Pacific Ocean.

ETA: Ah! Remove "-" from first number. Should be: 34.518884, -118.597031

 

[kevsrebla]

I just mapped it and the route of DRZ's bloodhound scent map is 3 miles. It would have taken him AT LEAST an hour if he was walking pretty fast, probably 90 min to 2 hours more realistically with the terrain and his condition.

Walking - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Average walking speed is about 3 miles per hour

 

[RoseGarden]

I just mapped it and the route of DRZ's bloodhound scent map is 3 miles. It would have taken him AT LEAST an hour if he was walking pretty fast, probably 90 min to 2 hours more realistically with the terrain and his condition.

So he was possibly, IMO, could have been on the other side of the lake, on the dam or elsewhere, when the LE folks arrived. And yes, about 2 miles per hour is an average pace on uneven terrain... MOO :moo:

 

[sreshowtime]

thank you Quester

 

[Quester]

If BL went in the lake and succumbed - I'd expect to find his shoes either on the shore where he would have left them prior to getting into the water; or if he took his shoes off, held them above water and then succumbed, the shoes would have floated to the shore (or would they have sunk?).

If he wore his shoes into the lake, tried to swim and succumbed, he would not have gotten far. In this event, LE lake search would likely have found him. JMO

If he took his shoes off and held them above water while tread water swimming, it's possible he made it to the shore-wherever, but he probably couldn't have gone very far or very fast that way and someone or the new camera system should have seen or captured him doing so.

Were his red/white high tops found in the SUV or anywhere?

 

[cluciano63]

If BL went in the lake and succumbed - I'd expect to find his shoes either on the shore where he would have left them prior to getting into the water; or if he took his shoes off, held them above water and then succumbed, the shoes would have floated to the shore (or would they have sunk?).

If he wore his shoes into the lake, tried to swim and succumbed, he would not have gotten far. In this event, LE lake search would likely have found him. JMO

If he took his shoes off and held them above water while treading water swimming, it's possible he made it to the shore-wherever, but he probably couldn't have gone very far or very fast that way and someone or the new camera system should have seen or captured him doing so.

Were his red/white high tops found in the SUV or anywhere?

But what about all of those feet in gym shoes that have surfaced in the NW and other places?

 

[Quester]

But what about all of those feet in gym shoes that have surfaced in the NW and other places?

What about them?

If BL wore his shoes into the lake, tried to swim and succumbed, he would not have gotten far. In this event, LE lake search would likely have already found him. JMO

 

[branwynbreeze]

So he was possibly, IMO, could have been on the other side of the lake, on the dam or elsewhere, when the LE folks arrived. And yes, about 2 miles per hour is an average pace on uneven terrain... MOO :moo:

This makes sense to me as the time frame is tight. I can see him walking then notice once LE got on scene they had their lights flashing due to car on road. He might have seen lights and figured he needed to get the heck out of there and take the scenic route to keep from being seen in sun coming up soon.

 

[Woe.be.gone]

deleted link

Will this picture of the tower stay centered? (No.) Shows width of Lake Hughes Road.
I don't know how to affix a map/location - do you have to sign into and make an account with Google Map Maker in order to do that?

 

[cluciano63]

What about them?

If BL wore his shoes into the lake, tried to swim and succumbed, he would not have gotten far. In this event, LE lake search would likely have already found him. JMO

Just that presumably, they were attached to bodies at one time and yet may have stayed under water in heavy footwear.

 

[Woe.be.gone]

What about them?

If BL wore his shoes into the lake, tried to swim and succumbed, he would not have gotten far. In this event, LE lake search would likely have already found him. JMO

What is the habit of a lake? What I mean is, a river flows south, correct?
Is it possible a body could make its way into a bay area? The bay areas may not have people within/around them on shore very often.

 

[Deep12]

So if the accident happened just after the camera time of 4.19/20 ... and taking say 15 minutes to roll then another 15 minutes to gather himself..take out the window and unzip the bag.....you are now looking at 4.50-5.00 am ......and if it takes a rushed adrenaline trek to the exit of park that is 6am-ish
Or if crash/gathering happened quicker ,take off 15 mins.

According to online sunrise times...The sun was up at around 6.30am-ish

What's the area like for traffic/people at the place where the bloodhounds stopped?

I'm away to Google map it...

 

[Quester]

What is the habit of a lake? What I mean is, a river flows south, correct?
Is it possible a body could make its way into a bay area? The bay areas may not have people within/around them on shore very often.

My understanding is that Castaic Lake is a man-made, dammed lake.