Agreed - quite speculative IMO
CA - Joey, Summer, Gianni, Joseph Jr McStay Murders - Feb 4th 2010 #17
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Agreed - quite speculative IMO
bessie
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There was a bit of rain.
Scroll down to comment #38 (Feb 6, 2010, 10:54 A.M.) where a reader comments that her daughter had just called from Victorville and reported that Knotts Berry Farm was closed and there were rain related problems in the Cajon Pass.
CA: FLOOD WATCH ( for Areas of Southern California )
It was the weekend of the great Snowmageddon which blew in from Baja California Sur and swept eastward dumping precipitation on most of the U.S.
The weather, in my mind, was an important factor in how the tragedy played out. JMO Not that I've drawn any firm conclusions from it, mind you. On the contrary. It throws a monkey wrench into many of my thoughts and theories.
February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
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So I am curious.... who right now believes that they were killed in the home still?
I really don't want to debate on whether tarps or plastic was laid down... I don't want to debate whether bags were over their heads... whether it happened in a bathtub... I just want the bottom line answer... no explanations necessary
Do you believe they were killed in the home?
I think it is not possible to be sure because the integrity of the crime scene was not maintained and Dugal's tentative photographic examination (where the table "blood stains" were missed) was obviously not done to a high standard.
I do wish a proper CSI style forensic search had been made at that time.
Frequently in these type of cases there are actually 3 crime scenes. The grave scene or dumping ground is usually referred to as "the crime scene". IMO there remains a second interim crime scene which is hidden from us.
IMO the most we can say is the family were taken from the house (alive or dead) indicated by their state of dress, and the end of any comms from them. They were then stashed somewhere in my opinion.
I've come around to @Tortoise 's view that the crime was premeditated to some extent, and that the family were likely trapped and murdered in a way that the killer had total control over them.
Cathy Russon @cathyrusson 6m6 minutes ago
#McStay - Defense expert drew red circles around each reddish brown stain on the picture of the table. He noted the amount stains on the legs, but no stains on the floor.
Cathy Russon @cathyrusson 2m2 minutes ago
#McStay - Defense blood spatter expert notes no blood stains on the floor around the chairs or on the area rug next to the table. Jurors heard in previous testimony that the floor had dirt/dust/grime and did not appear to have been cleaned.
Wow - that really does look like a spatter doesn't it.
This is where we need to listen to the killer because he knows how he did the staging.
I think the dirty floor thing has long been a clue to it. Maybe the table was moved for some reason?
My guess is the killer missed this spatter (like everyone else) because it can only be seen with special lighting.
Force Ten
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In the home.So I am curious.... who right now believes that they were killed in the home still?
I really don't want to debate on whether tarps or plastic was laid down... I don't want to debate whether bags were over their heads... whether it happened in a bathtub... I just want the bottom line answer... no explanations necessary
Do you believe they were killed in the home?
missy1974
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you could watch the testimony and look at the spreadsheets and do the math for yourself ... you don't have to take mine or Chase's word for it. Joey kept spreadsheets.
Here, I'll even give you some snips
(Job total 13,130.00... 65% of that is 8534... Job total 8900... 65% of that is 5785 and so on.... then you can see the change when MSM got involved, although I do see one fountain they didn't work on listed as well) Keep in mind, my reply was to the question of "Why wasn't he paying MSM?" He wasn't paying them because Joey was, it's not like Chase was pocketing the money.
JMO
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missy1974
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You got me reading and reading and reading LOL it's interesting to go back to some of those posts knowing what we know now...
Force Ten
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Quotes from a defense attorney and Law & Crime talking head, who are rooting for the defense."The prosecution has married themselves to this crime happening at the house, and, I'm sorry, but the forensic evidence is just not there."
"I mean seriously I'm running out of my moments to have my jaw on the desk here and have somebody lift it back up. What is going on with the State's case here?!"
missy1974
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I missed this - who?? So I can put this on my description. Did this CHP officer testify AFTER the lawyer Leonard?
I didn't see a tweet regarding this person??
TIA!
Officer Jeffrey Adels
Sorry, I'm unsure if I spelled his last name correctly lol
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missy1974
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There was a bit of rain.
Scroll down to comment #39 (Feb 6, 2010, 10:54 A.M.) where a reader comments that her daughter had just called from Victorville and reported that Knotts Berry Farm was closed and there were rain related problems in the Cajon Pass.
CA: FLOOD WATCH ( for Areas of Southern California )
It was the weekend of the great Snowmageddon which blew in from Baja California Sur and swept eastward dumping precipitation on most of the U.S.
The weather, in my mind, was an important factor in how the tragedy played out. JMO Not that I've drawn any firm conclusions from it, mind you. On the contrary. It throws a monkey wrench into many of my thoughts and theories.
February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
The officer today that testified responded to an accident in the Cajon Pass. He was asked about the weather that day.. of course the accident in the morning was considered rain/weather related. IIRC he said it was clear by 11am... said he didn't know what the weather was like in Victorville.
Det. Ryan Smith testified earlier in the trial that according to a gov't site, Victorville got around an inch I think (it was either just above or just under)... I would have to go back and listen. I know that the defense asked him if he knew when during that 24 hour period it rained, he didn't know.
ETA: just checked that link... eerie knowing that the problem in Cajon Pass was probably the accident that the officer was responding to that testified today ...
you could watch the testimony and look at the spreadsheets and do the math for yourself ... you don't have to take mine or Chase's word for it. Joey kept spreadsheets.
Here, I'll even give you some snips
Keep in mind, my reply was to the question of "Why wasn't he paying MSM?" He wasn't paying them because Joey was, it's not like Chase was pocketing the money.
JMO
That may be
My point remains the same. It was Chase himself who lied to investigators that he was paid 65%. That is also what T said.
As far as the business arrangements go, I think it is pretty clear that the arrival of MSM on the scene was going to destroy Chase's profitability big time - hence the fights between MSM and Joey over the margins. It was obvious that MSM could handle all the fabrication work without Chase. And they provided all the equipment and workshop.
So I guess that it had become obvious to Joey as well - even if he didn't get on with Sequeida Snr.
This is why Sequeida Snr wanted to know how much these were sold for. It must have been obvious to them that Chase was into Joey for way too much of the margin - more of which should have been coming to them.
missy1974
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So now Joey's spreadsheets lie too?
You are assuming that Joey was planning on sticking with MSM when Susan's testimony contradicts that when she stated that Joey was planning on moving everything to one central location and closer to home (that would exclude MSM IMO) She also had to admit that it didn't exclude Chase, at least that is not what she told the Det. Hanke back in 2014.
I'm all for having productive discussions, but this is not productive IMO I can show you the evidence and it doesn't matter. I'm okay with that, and I would absolutely not be offended if you just skipped my posts
bessie
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Perhaps Smith ran into the same problem that I did trying to verify the precipitation on Feb 4-6. I even ordered a dataset from NOAA, and there was no data available. Go figure.
Hence, I came to rely on anecdotal information from news sites and reader comments.https://www.websleuths.com/forums/threads/the-gravesite-2.231106/page-3#post-10027553
So now Joey's spreadsheets lie too?
I think you have the wrong end of the stick. We are not saying Joey's spreadsheets were lying. They would obviously be correct. Chase lied to detectives about it. He claimed he gets 65% with the costs coming out of his side. But as we all know, MSM now did all the fabrication and the costs came out of Joey's side.
CM: Yeah. I made 65%. If Joseph sells a waterfall for $10,000 he pays me $6,500 he keeps $3,500, he makes $3,500 on every, he makes 35% pretty much across the board. Um that’s just, that’s the way the math comes out, and so
TD: And that’s because he’s the owner of the business, has the website and makes all the contacts for sales.
CM: Contacts for sales and he does all the shipping. So that 35% is, it’s a pretty big number when you’re doing
TD: Because that’s pure profit, 65% is on you and
CM: Yeah, I got a lot of, yeah I often manufacture the waterfall, I buy all the stainless and the glass
TD: So the less your cost the more your profit. Basically.
CM: Say that again.
TD: Well if you have a fixed fee of 65% whatever your manufacturing cost, the residual is your profit.
CM: Yeah, well basically if, if, if I make let’s say I make $6,500 on a $10,000 waterfall, it’ll generally cost me as a matter of fact I just did a bid on one,
TD: You don’t have to show me the details.
CM: No I just did a bid on this one right here, this one, this is two waterfalls at 9,500-10,000 ok, it’s going to cost me $2,500-2,750 per waterfall to just the basics, to buy, yeah, yeah just the basics, and then I have to pay to have it produced, so by the time it [x] down a $10,000 waterfall gives me, makes me $1,500-1,800, so which is still good for me, because now I don’t do a whole lot of hands on, stuff, I was doing everything I was building every waterfall all myself, and I was dying, you know, that’s what gave me a heart attack, actually, it was, because we got really busy last year, and we were just…
TD: And that’s because he’s the owner of the business, has the website and makes all the contacts for sales.
CM: Contacts for sales and he does all the shipping. So that 35% is, it’s a pretty big number when you’re doing
TD: Because that’s pure profit, 65% is on you and
CM: Yeah, I got a lot of, yeah I often manufacture the waterfall, I buy all the stainless and the glass
TD: So the less your cost the more your profit. Basically.
CM: Say that again.
TD: Well if you have a fixed fee of 65% whatever your manufacturing cost, the residual is your profit.
CM: Yeah, well basically if, if, if I make let’s say I make $6,500 on a $10,000 waterfall, it’ll generally cost me as a matter of fact I just did a bid on one,
TD: You don’t have to show me the details.
CM: No I just did a bid on this one right here, this one, this is two waterfalls at 9,500-10,000 ok, it’s going to cost me $2,500-2,750 per waterfall to just the basics, to buy, yeah, yeah just the basics, and then I have to pay to have it produced, so by the time it [x] down a $10,000 waterfall gives me, makes me $1,500-1,800, so which is still good for me, because now I don’t do a whole lot of hands on, stuff, I was doing everything I was building every waterfall all myself, and I was dying, you know, that’s what gave me a heart attack, actually, it was, because we got really busy last year, and we were just…
I don't assume that at all. It seemed the relationship was not going well.
In business, mystery equals margin
MSM had basically demystified how much the actual production costs were. Joey now had transparency on that.
So it surely must have been obvious to Joey by this time that he needed to get a firm grip on the operations side because lots of his profit margin was bleeding out there.
I'm all for having productive discussions, but this is not productive IMO I can show you the evidence and it doesn't matter. I'm okay with that, and I would absolutely not be offended if you just skipped my posts
I think we are just at cross purposes.
katydid23
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So now Joey's spreadsheets lie too?
You are assuming that Joey was planning on sticking with MSM when Susan's testimony contradicts that when she stated that Joey was planning on moving everything to one central location and closer to home (that would exclude MSM IMO) She also had to admit that it didn't exclude Chase, at least that is not what she told the Det. Hanke back in 2014.
I'm all for having productive discussions, but this is not productive IMO I can show you the evidence and it doesn't matter. I'm okay with that, and I would absolutely not be offended if you just skipped my posts
Wait a minute. Joey's dream of moving it to one central location closer too home was way far in the future. He had no location, no machinery or equipment, no employees hired yet.
And the immediate orders still needed to be built and MSM was currently being contracted for the bulk of the work.
Chase himself admitted as much. They were doing the welding and building themselves.
Mr Jitty provided the copy of the interview where Chase described that himself. It seems there is evidence that people on both sides are sometimes ignoring. JMO
(quote)So now Joey's spreadsheets lie too?
You are assuming that Joey was planning on sticking with MSM when Susan's testimony contradicts that when she stated that Joey was planning on moving everything to one central location and closer to home (that would exclude MSM IMO) She also had to admit that it didn't exclude Chase, at least that is not what she told the Det. Hanke back in 2014.
I'm all for having productive discussions, but this is not productive IMO I can show you the evidence and it doesn't matter. I'm okay with that, and I would absolutely not be offended if you just skipped my posts
Blake did testify her son wants to downgrade his business and buy Kavanaugh out. She said he wanted to buy a warehouse and use more local welders.
But she told Maline he was incorrect about her son wanting to keep Merritt. She testified McStay told her he wanted to cut ties with Merritt who had a gambling problem and it was costing him money.
McStay family murders: Mother of Joseph McStay testifies in Charles Merritt trial
missy1974
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Perhaps Smith ran into the same problem that I did trying to verify the precipitation on Feb 4-6. I even ordered a dataset from NOAA, and there was no data available. Go figure.
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/threads/the-gravesite-2.231106/page-3#post-10027553
ohhh he did get it from NOAA (I have Oceanic ? in my notes lol). It was from the Victorville weather station ...
also from my notes..
for Jan - 27th .03 inches recorded, feb 2010 - accumulated rain from 1st -12th (on the 6th) 1.1 inches, 7th .03 inches
It's from Day 24 Part 3 around 49:00, cross was in Part 4 at the start, which wasn't earth shattering, just making it clear that it was a 24 hour accumulation and there was no indication of when during the day it occured.
missy1974
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See... now go back to my original post... where I CLEARLY stated...
JMO based on the spreadsheets.
Not once did I base my post or my opinion on anything that Chase said.
IMO Joey was quite weak on the operational side - not surprising as he was more entrepreneur than artisan but I think he was learning fast!
And he needed to with the ramp up
IMO hiring MSM was a step in the right direction of tightening up fabrication. But you can see why that was falling apart. Why should MSM do all the fabrication and essentially provide a free shop floor for Joey's business partner to make all the profit margin?
I think Joey needed to sack both Chase and MSM ultimately. (Snr seemed too firey)
If I were him, I would have create a small design shop to do planning and post fabrication and shipping. Fabrication I would just job out to suppliers like MSM. So no strategic parters - they just do the job.
IMO he needed to hire a technical design/project manager type dude. I've worked with industrial designers like this before and they can sketch up the computer plans you need, but also do down to the factory and talk with the workers and check the work quality
IMO this would have brought back all his margin in house and derisked.
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