Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996 - 1997, Perth, Western Australia - #3

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if there is a group of siblings, and say the oldest sibling is fathered by one man, and other siblings are fathered by another man, would a DNA test involving all siblings show the disparity ? Would the DNA test link all siblings to the same mother ?
 
Pretty sure Papertrail posted an original article soon after the Karrakatta abduction that mentioned the PV. CARK probably got their intel from this artcle and passed it on to LW.

Welcome back Bart - you were missed.
 
...CG started out with drinks at work, then onto the Irish Club, then onto the Conti.

RSBM. I don't remember reading CG went to an Irish club before Conti. Do you or anyone else recall where this was stated or what the name of the club was?
 
'glad to see you back bart' if they have dna LW is ruled out, if they dont then were did the csk go i dont think he stopped, my best bet is over east were there is a string of unsolved murders with all the hall marks of the csk
I don't have time right now but i recall a show (it was TT or ACA or 60 mins) in the last 2 years did an expose on Jessica Small and they more or less know the killer.

The only one i could see with a similarity is a girl who went missing after going to a night club in Bendigo or Ballarat or somewhere in country Vic. She was found in a paddock from memory.
 
CSK fled Perth in 98. The cops have no new leads. They have no suspects.

Care to share how you know for certain that the CSK fled Perth in 1998; the way you wrote your comment makes it sound as though you know something ?
 
RSBM. I don't remember reading CG went to an Irish club before Conti. Do you or anyone else recall where this was stated or what the name of the club was?

From memory only it was called The Irish Club of WA and I believe it was in Subiaco. I've got an article somewhere that details the information about CG's visit.
 
I don't have time right now but i recall a show (it was TT or ACA or 60 mins) in the last 2 years did an expose on Jessica Small and they more or less know the killer.

The only one i could see with a similarity is a girl who went missing after going to a night club in Bendigo or Ballarat or somewhere in country Vic. She was found in a paddock from memory.

Here is the report from the 2013 / 2014 Coroner's Hearing
http://www.coroners.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/jessica%20small%20findings%20final.pdf
 
on the 26 october 1997 15 year old jessica small vanished from bathurst nsw
she was last seen in a white holden commodore with a male described as being 30 years of age
kellie anne carmicheal vanished from katoomba on the 26 april 2001 age 24
news paper reports state
there are fears a missing victorian women may be the victim of a serial killer.a nsw coroner wants police to open up a cold case review to see if a string of similar disapperances are connected
i think the csk legged it to nsw probably first to bathurst and started with jessica small as for lance williams being the csk no dna match, no connection with any vehicles no hitory of violence plus he doesnt look like a killer to me just an average loner

I've thought a lot about Jessica Small being connected. Based on what I know, her abduction was too dissimilar to say one way or the other. The same goes for Kellie Anne Carmichael. But Jessica and Kellie did look similar to the CSK victims, and there is the white Holden involvement (as described by silver tongue), so the connection is a good suggestion, IMO.

It is my belief there have been many serial killers who were able to stop killing. But criminologists and profilers have repeatedly stated the CSK would not be able to stop on his own.

I started looking up suspicious Australian deaths and disappearances in the years following the CSK victims. I also looked at past cases, starting in the late 1970s.

The Australian Missing Persons Register was extremely helpful. That is the website where the missing are categorized by state and male/female/child and each category is shown as a different colored puzzle piece. But as of two days ago, I receive a '403 Forbidden' message when I try to view the website. Does anyone know why?

Can anyone else access the site?
http://www.australianmissingpersonsregister.com/ Please post your reply in the thread or PM me, and also include if you are inside or outside Australia.

Silver tongue mentioned two Bathurst abductions that could have been pre-Claremont cases. There is another Bathurst abduction that I found remarkably similar to the CSK--Janine Vaughan's. (See next post please.)
 
Janine Vaughan, 31, managed a men's wear store. On the evening of Dec. 6, 2001, she was drinking and dancing with friends at the Metro Tavern nightclub in Bathurst, NSW.

In the early morning hours of Dec. 7, 2001, Janine left the Metro Tavern and headed, on foot, for the Oxford Tavern. It was raining steadily. Janine was walking approximately 40 meters ahead of two friends.

A red sedan pulled over to Janine and she climbed inside. This was reported by the two friends and substantiated by CCTV. Janine appeared to climb into the vehicle willingly. Janine has not been heard from since this time.

There were three suspects, but an inquest in 2009 could not find any of them culpable.

The person driving the vehicle is suspected of stalking another woman the same night Janine was taken and of other assaults in the preceding weeks.

Don't want to go into too much detail on Janine here, as she does have her own WS thread. I will link articles about the other assaults/stalking and Janine's WS thread below.

Daily Telegraph: http://tinyurl.com/z9llvbm

Western Advocate: http://tinyurl.com/hx89xmd

Sun Herald: http://tinyurl.com/he84vvs

Websleuths: http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...anine-Vaughan-31-Bathurst-NSW-7-December-2001
 
LW was in a very 'sensitive' state mentally and that could be why police pulled back on their overt surveillance, but that doesn't mean he was not and (still) is not under covert surveillance. Also, overt surveillance stopped about the same time that McKechnie the former chief State prosecutor came out swinging at police regarding their investigation techniques of LW. Police had lost by suicide, quite a few persons of interest and / or suspects so they would have decided to tread more lightweighted.

There have been suggestions in the media that Lance Williams is no longer a suspect and the only reason they have not publically admitted it is because of a potentially large compensation pay out against them.

Whether or not this is true or not is another story but its definitely how the media are running it.

It would be amazing if the Police were tricked by the fact Lance's DNA was not the Karrakatta rapist, despite still being involved and being the actual killer.

I do hope that DNA was not mistaken for 'forensic evidence' and rather than have a DNA profile they actually just have a match in fibres of some such, or some type of particals, with the same patterns rather than a DNA profile.

It was odd that they did announce familial DNA testing should lead to an arrest sometime soon a few years back, given that comment it does sound like they may have DNA, good luck getting DNA from someone cremated though. You could comb through the posessions and hope like anything something may come up, highly unlikely though, and still no way to prove it was definitively the suspects DNA from those posessions unless it turned up in droves.
 
There have been suggestions in the media that Lance Williams is no longer a suspect and the only reason they have not publically admitted it is because of a potentially large compensation pay out against them.

Whether or not this is true or not is another story but its definitely how the media are running it.

It would be amazing if the Police were tricked by the fact Lance's DNA was not the Karrakatta rapist, despite still being involved and being the actual killer.

I do hope that DNA was not mistaken for 'forensic evidence' and rather than have a DNA profile they actually just have a match in fibres of some such, or some type of particals, with the same patterns rather than a DNA profile.

It was odd that they did announce familial DNA testing should lead to an arrest sometime soon a few years back, given that comment it does sound like they may have DNA, good luck getting DNA from someone cremated though. You could comb through the posessions and hope like anything something may come up, highly unlikely though, and still no way to prove it was definitively the suspects DNA from those posessions unless it turned up in droves.

He may not be cremated !

I don't consider it would be 'an amazing trick' at all; given the mate was out of 'view and off the radar' by time the abductions and murders commenced and it appears to me they (the police) had purely concentrated on LW. Also don't forget the police at the time in 1996 / 97 didn't link the rapes, sexual assaults to the abductions and murders. It also appears that many girls that were sexually assaulted and raped did not make contact with the police to report; Bret appears to be covering these events now
 
Janine Vaughan, 31, managed a men's ware store. On the evening of Dec. 6, 2001, she was drinking and dancing with friends at the Metro Tavern nightclub in Bathurst, NSW.

In the early morning hours of Dec. 7, 2001, Janine left the Metro Tavern and headed, on foot, for the Oxford Tavern. It was raining steadily. Janine was walking approximately 40 meters ahead of two friends.

A red sedan pulled over to Janine and she climbed inside. This was reported by the two friends and substantiated by CCTV. Janine appeared to climb into the vehicle willingly. Janine has not been heard from since this time.

There were three suspects, but an inquest in 2009 could not find any of them culpable.

The person driving the vehicle is suspected of stalking another woman the same night Janine was taken and of other assaults in the preceding weeks.

Don't want to go into too much detail on Janine here, as she does have her own WS thread. I will link articles about the other assaults/stalking and Janine's WS thread below.

Daily Telegraph: http://tinyurl.com/z9llvbm

Western Advocate: http://tinyurl.com/hx89xmd

Sun Herald: http://tinyurl.com/he84vvs

Websleuths: http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...anine-Vaughan-31-Bathurst-NSW-7-December-2001

Were any of the suspects in Perth during the Claremont killings? Sounds like a party goer that gets familiar with the victim in the club and lures them into the car before doing whatever he does. Is this MM?
 
He may not be cremated !

I don't consider it would be 'an amazing trick' at all; given the mate was out of 'view and off the radar' by time the abductions and murders commenced and it appears to me they (the police) had purely concentrated on LW. Also don't forget the police at the time in 1996 / 97 didn't link the rapes, sexual assaults to the abductions and murders. It also appears that many girls that were sexually assaulted and raped did not make contact with the police to report; Bret appears to be covering these events now

Where is Lance's best friends grave stone? Karrakatta? Where was the woman raped? In the same area he ended up being burried? Could this have also been the kill spot for the killer? Would be interesting to know where the best friends grave stone was located or how he died.
 
if there is a group of siblings, and say the oldest sibling is fathered by one man, and other siblings are fathered by another man, would a DNA test involving all siblings show the disparity ? Would the DNA test link all siblings to the same mother ?

You can do maternal and paternal DNA tests. So yes, you can tell who 'belongs to' who
 
Familial DNA testing:
Someone said it would be difficult to obtain a sample from a family member- not really.

Example
You've just been to the cinema and have left your empty drink cup (with straw) in the cup holder instead of the bin. You go off non the wiser. A forensic officer can get a DNA sample from the straw. You left your DNA in a public space. This is a massive gray area in /privacy/rights in Obtaining DNA-depending on local laws etc.

Example 2
You spit on the sidewalk (baseball player style). Obtainable DNA. You could still be standing there, and a forensic officer can walk up and swab it
 
Here is a little bit about familial searching from the FBI.



Familial Searching

Familial searching is an additional search of a law enforcement DNA database conducted after a routine search has been completed and no profile matches are identified during the process. Unlike a routine database search which may spontaneously yield partial match profiles, familial searching is a deliberate search of a DNA database conducted for the intended purpose of potentially identifying close biological relatives to the unknown forensic profile obtained from crime scene evidence. Familial searching is based on the concept that first-order relatives, such as siblings or parent/child relationships, will have more genetic data in common than unrelated individuals. Practically speaking, familial searching would only be performed if the comparison of the forensic DNA profile with the known offender/arrestee DNA profiles has not identified any matches to any of the offenders/arrestees.

Familial searching is often confused with what occurs when a partial match results from the routine search of the DNA database. A partial match is the spontaneous product of a regular database search where a candidate offender profile is identified as not being identical to the forensic profile but because of a similarity in the number of alleles shared between the two profiles, the offender may be a close biological relative of the source of the forensic profile.

While familial searching is now being performed in several jurisdictions in the United States, the United Kingdom (UK) has the most experience conducting familial searching of their National DNA Database. Since 2003, the UK has conducted approximately 200 familial searches resulting in investigative information used to help solve approximately 40 serious crimes (as of May 2011). The UK has developed detailed protocols for familial searches that include an approval process, considerations for prioritization, research of family history, and training of law enforcement officers. One of the key components responsible for the effectiveness of the UK’s system is that the search is not based upon genetics alone. Age, and more importantly, geographic location, are combined with the genetic data to produce a ranked list of potential relatives of the unknown forensic profile.

In considering whether familial searching should be implemented in your jurisdiction, it is important to recognize that a relative must already be in the database in order for the search to identify them as a potential relative of the forensic profile. It should be noted that even if a relative is in the database, it is possible that the relative may not be included in the ranked list produced by the familial search. For example, California’s validation of their familial searching protocol showed that approximately 93% of fathers and 61% of full siblings were identified by their familial search procedure using the CODIS 13 core loci in searching a database of approximately one million DNA profiles (96% of fathers and 72 % of full siblings were identified using 15 loci) [1]. However, regardless of whether or not a relative is in the database, a familial search will always generate a ranked list of potential candidates for evaluation.

Is familial searching currently conducted at the national level? No, familial searching is not currently performed at the National DNA Index System. See Federal Register Vol. 73, No. 238 (December 10, 2008 at page 74937).

What States perform familial searching? As of June 2011, California, Colorado, Texas and Virginia perform familial searching.

Can familial searching help to solve some cases? Yes, when applied properly. There are several considerations States should take into account when evaluating whether to move forward with familial searching within their state.

Discussion Topics for States Considering Familial Searching:

Authority:

Consider the applicable state laws and regulations governing the DNA databasing program to determine the best legal approach. Because many of the State laws are silent on the issue of familial searching, it is important to have a full legal review to evaluate whether familial searching is authorized in your jurisdiction. Those states which have adopted or rejected familial searching have done so under a variety of authorities:
California implemented its familial search program with the approval of their Attorney General. Several other states have recently introduced legislation (currently still in committee): Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Two jurisdictions currently prohibit, by law, the use of familial searching; Maryland and the District of Columbia. Other jurisdictions have implemented familial searching based upon laboratory policy.
Resources:

Staff
Implementation of a successful familial search program takes time and requires significant resources and staff. Personnel with an expertise in kinship comparisons are necessary.
Consider forming a Task Force to review requests for familial searches as well as evaluating any familial search results. Such a Task Force should include laboratory personnel as well as law enforcement personnel with access to criminal history records for researching background information on potential linkages.
Software
The current version of CODIS software does not have the capability to efficiently search and return information for familial searching. The states that conduct familial DNA searches use specially designed software (not CODIS) to conduct these searches.
As with implementation of any new software, validation is required before use of such software in laboratory operations. Any validation must be conducted in accordance with Standard 8 of the FBI’s Quality Assurance Standards.
Develop Standard Operating Protocols for familial searching before implementing a familial search program.
Policies and Procedures
Policies and procedures regarding familial searching should be approved prior to implementation. Policies and procedures should address, at a minimum, the following topics:
Privacy Considerations
Release of information
Process for approval of search requests (Board decision, Laboratory management, etc)
Types of crimes eligible and other criteria for familial searching
Frequency of searches
Use of additional genetic testing (e.g. YSTR) to narrow search results
Reporting of search results
Categories searched (offenders only, offenders and arrestees, etc.)
Training for Law Enforcement

1 S.P. Myers, et al., Searching for first-degree familial relationships in California’s offender DNA database: Validation of a likelihood ratio-based approach, Forensic Sci. Int. Genet. (2010).
 
I am just curious as to how they made the Karrakatta connection. It was the VS commodore station wagon that came to be connected back in 2008, before then there was no known car for any Claremont victim, only Karrakatta. Or did Lance say this deliberately? Or how did CARK aquire the correct intel long before the Police had any clue (although the Police had the witness statement of the VS commodore long before 2008) so the Police probably suspected the Claremont killer was driving a station wagon (possibly) and commodore (definitely according to the aussie teen who knew in his heart the type of car and was surely not mistaken in his mind). So either someone knew the Claremont killer was still using a Panel van (and also might not have made any Karrakatta link) and was correct with their intel, or this is another huge coincidence. I wonder if the Panel van was ever used again after Karrakatta. Or if it was always someone elses car.

Sound logic elastic. Given we now know of at least two vehicles which are both of a commercial-type (I think previously it was stated that most of the white Commodore wagons went to fleets), and we know that there is some sort of printing-related evidence, should Police be looking at printing businesses or office technology services (eg hire or service companies?)
 
I think the theory (with no basis) goes that the watch had stopped at a particular time, hence they have determined the time the watch stop was the time the blitz attack occured. Maybe the watch stopped in the dirt at a certain time at the dump site, or maybe when the perp bungled the victim into the car. No idea though if this didnt have anything to do with the watch theory.

Silver tongue mentioned watch possibly being run over. Maybe, it was dark.. Plus it had to be in a spot as Horse riders found it. Might be just a case it got water in it over time.
 
could of run over the watch on the way out stopping it at time and date
of disposal
If Horse riders found it flattened then they would have discarded it. Instead they tried to find the owner of it at the Horse Club. It was later on when JR was found that the link was made.
 
I don't have time right now but i recall a show (it was TT or ACA or 60 mins) in the last 2 years did an expose on Jessica Small and they more or less know the killer.

The only one i could see with a similarity is a girl who went missing after going to a night club in Bendigo or Ballarat or somewhere in country Vic. She was found in a paddock from memory.
reg murder ballarat
on the 22 november 1998 tracey howard was last seen leaving a ballarat night club at 3am, her naked body was found dumped of the side of a country road she had been strangled but not sexually assaulted [sound familiar]
 
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