CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #44

[ColdHands]

Why cant they use those mini subs that the oceanographers use?

I think they said they plan to.

Well, I can't find any information on how this specific dam is maintained, but other dams have sophisticated equipment. If the dogs are hitting close to the dam, I'd recommend contacting PRID to see if they have any cameras, sensors, etc installed at those depths. It wouldnt hurt to ask. Maybe they already have.

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

Why cant they use those mini subs that the oceanographers use?

Perhaps that's the plan? I don't know. I just know that it might be much more difficult than sending a few divers in. I had no idea...

And that's a good question about how do they inspect the dam on the water side? Surely they do.

Now I'm even more curious just where on that lake the dogs hit. Hopefully near shore and not too close to the dam.

 

[ColdHands]

It is important to realize that the scent leaving the body under water
behaves just like scent leaving a body on land, i.e. there is a scent cone,
which under the simplest conditions rises straight up to the surface and
forms a circle, the circumference of which is determined by the distance.
In the real world of scent however, that is seldom the case. As Mike
stated, many variables influence the 'circle of scent'.

Snipped.
This is very interesting because to me it indicates that Wendy's dogs' alerts may be more precise than the earlier alerts. The ice would help localize the scent so it didn't disperse as much as it would over open water. Imo

 

[Redhead72]

Maybe they are thinking that with all the boating and activities in the summer if a body is stuck it might get dislodged and float? I really hate talking about this but I had no idea how deep it was vs how far down the divers could safely go. This is going to be a real challenge.

I am hesitant to discuss this topic in specific detail as well, just due to the nature of it all, and out of respect for AZGrandma.

There are so many aspects at play if this is truly where Dylan is - which unfortunately is what I believe at this time. In reading the posts on the scuba site I linked above, the fact that a team had searched and found brush and a tree, attempted to clear it with divers, and that the next day the body floated up in that case stuck out to me in reference to the dog's hit on the "brush" that has been mentioned.

Also, as far as reliability of HRD dogs. A study I briefly looked at said that the rate of success in accuracy is extremely high. In regards to not hitting on something that doesn't exist - most of the figures were something like only 9 false hits out of every 100 in a controlled experiment. Of course, they mention that dogs - like humans - have good days and bad days...

I just didn't like it that the LE agency kept pointing out that the dogs have been wrong before, because the likelihood that they are wrong is quite slim. They may not hit right above the body due to how the gases and fluids rise, and move under water before they surface, but it would be odd for separate dogs to both be mistaken, even if they hit in different places, y'know?

One thing that might be helpful in this case is that due to the cold temps in the water, if there is a body in the Lake, then it would likely have slowed decomp. to some degree. The specifics of which I really don't want to get into here - out of respect for Dylan's family...

All of the above is MOO... :cow:

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

This was interesting!

http://gralston1.home.mindspring.com/Sidescan.html

Some can go 850 feet

At the request of Rich County, Utah, Search and Rescue, Gene conducted a search for a drowning victim in Bear Lake. The victim had drowned more than six weeks earlier and local authorities had called off the official search. Within a few hours of beginning the search, the victim was located in 148 feet of water in an area just outside of the area searched by an underwater remote operated vehicle (ROV) and camera. The ROV was later used to recover the 24 year old man. See Bear Lake for further details about this search.

The National Park Service has requested Gene and his crew on several occasions to assist in the search for drowning victims on Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Water depth and very irregular underwater terrain complicate the Lake Powell and Lake Mead searches. During one search on Lake Powell, the victim was found in 286 feet of water on the morning of the second day of searching. The National Park Service's ROV was used to recover his body. See Lake Powell for more details. Four drowning victims were recovered from Lake Mead in 2002.


Ok so this is doable with sidescan sonar and ROV's. I feel better now.

 

[La Louve]

Why cant they use those mini subs that the oceanographers use?

Just doing a quick google search for ROV Services in Colorado, it's apparent that those types of business are mainly found in coastal cities. The closest would be in Texas I suppose.

I also haven't yet been able to figure out if there are ROVs small enough that they could be launched from a boat that could actually get out onto the lake. Most of them I've seen so far are big and meant for ocean use. But I'm hoping there are some that could be used in the lake.

 

[La Louve]

At the request of Rich County, Utah, Search and Rescue, Gene conducted a search for a drowning victim in Bear Lake. The victim had drowned more than six weeks earlier and local authorities had called off the official search. Within a few hours of beginning the search, the victim was located in 148 feet of water in an area just outside of the area searched by an underwater remote operated vehicle (ROV) and camera. The ROV was later used to recover the 24 year old man. See Bear Lake for further details about this search.

The National Park Service has requested Gene and his crew on several occasions to assist in the search for drowning victims on Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Water depth and very irregular underwater terrain complicate the Lake Powell and Lake Mead searches. During one search on Lake Powell, the victim was found in 286 feet of water on the morning of the second day of searching. The National Park Service's ROV was used to recover his body. See Lake Powell for more details. Four drowning victims were recovered from Lake Mead in 2002.


Ok so this is doable with sidescan sonar and ROV's. I feel better now.

Lake Powell is huge. Do we know what the size of the Vallecito reservoir is?

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

Snipped.
This is very interesting because to me it indicates that Wendy's dogs' alerts may be more precise than the earlier alerts. The ice would help localize the scent so it didn't disperse as much as it would over open water. Imo

I hope that's the case. As I posted above a case where ROV's did not find the body but sidescan sonar did and it was just outside the ROV's search area. It almost seems like divers aren't even necessary. ROV's and sidescan sonar could do it.

 

[azgrandma]

I think LE has information which tells them that it could not be Dylan in the lake. I believe that the HRD dogs from NM did get hits. They as well are certified, but LE stated that they cleared the lake in relation to Dylan not that the lake did not have a body in it. Wouldn't LE want to know who was in the lake regardless of whether or not it's Dylan? I can't imagine them saying hey we got a hit on a body in a lake, but it's not the person we are looking for, so we'll just ignore it

As for Wendy's hits, I could not come across what certifications her dogs had. What I did find odd is that she brought both HRD and a scent one. The scent one perplexed me. The one thing she was able to do is keep a number of people focused on what she was doing rather than what LE was doing.

This LE is being called hillbillies and I must disagree. They are working in a situation that quite frankly is toxic and in which many had tunnel vision from the first day. Thank goodness LE appeared to keep all options open for Dylan's sake. I agree that there was tunnel vision in the beginning, IMO too much time was wasted thinking Dylan was a runaway, regardless of what they thought or believed, IMO there were items that were overlooked, namely they ignored that MR's house needed to be examined FULLY. That would have avoided evidence being overlooked or evidence being added IMO

What could this information be? I have no idea but I do know that LE was asking for any and all video repeatedly. They had to have a reason for this and I don't think it was to make sure MR's truck was on the road. They wanted to check all vehicles.

I do believe that LE has determined Dylan made it to the house. I do believe that there were items for scent on the Monday evening, and I do believe his scent was tracked. There would be no reason to bring k9's in on the Monday night if they did not have scent items. The more I looked at his backpack I realized that he probably had one checked item, which on most commuter flights would be required, due to the shortage in storage space on the airplane. I believe LE did ask for additional items to be brought, as the handlers prefer to use a different article each time they search.Are you saying that Dylan had a backpack & a carryon? Or was the backpack "the" carryon?

I understand that some are adamant that MR is guilty. I get that. What I personally can't do is ignore other scenarios which do not involve him simply due to the fact of how LE has worded various releases or to satisfy one particular group as I am here for Dylan and no one else. I"m interested what scenarios do you think should be evaluated when looking at the totality of information we have so far?

What happens if while the dogs were hitting on the lake, they have Dylan on video in a vehicle? IMO then we'd have more information than ever before and perhaps more to go on. IMO it would depend on what vehicle and in what direction of travel. i.e. a blue Honda Accord headed away from the lake vs. MR's truck headed towards the lake (not saying that he put DR in the truck and drove to the lake)

What I have to do is keep reminding myself that no one has been cleared.

ETA I as well found it odd that LE released a timeline of Dylan's movements for November 18th. They specifically put November 18th, which leads me to think that they might have information after that date that they have not released.

Do you mean that LE is withholding information about the 19th that could aide in locating Dylan? They did release the sighting by the mail carrier early on and that was suppose to be on the 19th

Allusonz, I appreciate the change of pace you brought with your comment, I put some comments & questions in red in your post. Really made me curious. TIA

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

Lake Powell is huge. Do we know what the size of the Vallecito reservoir is?

22 miles of shoreline and approx. 7 miles from one end to the other.

 

[Chili Fries]

Just doing a quick google search for ROV Services in Colorado, it's apparent that those types of business are mainly found in coastal cities. The closest would be in Texas I suppose.

I also haven't yet been able to figure out if there are ROVs small enough that they could be launched from a boat that could actually get out onto the lake. Most of them I've seen so far are big and meant for ocean use. But I'm hoping there are some that could be used in the lake.

There are some institutions in the Denver metro area that probably have ROVs - The School of Mines in Golden, Univ of Colorado in Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also in Boulder (I know they have ROVs, just not sure if there are any at the Boulder facility).

A problem with Lake Vallecito could be the fact that it had to be extensively logged before the valley was dammed to make the lake. The bottom may still be very cluttered with stumps and debris - it could be tough to find a small body among all that.

 

[Redhead72]

Lake Powell is huge. Do we know what the size of the Vallecito reservoir is?

Here's a quick link to an aerial picture and a map.
http://www.vallecitolakechamber.com/maps/index.asp

I'm looking for an area measurement of the lake itself still, but it is very large.

ETA - I see PsychicSleuth has posted details regarding miles of shoreline, and width of the lake. I'll see if I can't still find an acre number, or volume number so that it can be compared with Lake Powell and Lake Mead if that will help some to visualize it better.

ETA2 - Found one of the figures I was looking for;

The 2,720-acre lake was created in 1941 when a dam impounded the waters of the Pine River and Vallecito Creek.

http://www.lakelubbers.com/vallecito-lake-1443/

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

Well Elaine and company say they are bringing in the best of the best! So we wait for that darn lake to thaw. I wonder what the temps have been. I know last week it was in the 60s and even up to 70 one day.

 

[La Louve]

22 miles of shoreline and approx. 7 miles from one end to the other.

Thanks! It's just a little smaller than Detroit Lake east of Salem Oregon in the Cascades. Now I have a reference

 

[Tennlyn]

Well Elaine and company say they are bringing in the best of the best! So we wait for that darn lake to thaw. I wonder what the temps have been. I know last week it was in the 60s and even up to 70 one day.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/CO/Vallecito.html

 

[Redhead72]

Well Elaine and company say they are bringing in the best of the best! So we wait for that darn lake to thaw. I wonder what the temps have been. I know last week it was in the 60s and even up to 70 one day.

56 degrees at present... Here is a link for the 10-day forecast for Durango (looks like highs in the 50s and 60s for the next 10 days)
http://www.weather.com/weather/tend...Ws_voap&cm_cat=Lawn&cm_ite=link&cm_pla=10-day

ETA - Tennlyn's link above is better...

 

[La Louve]

Here's a quick link to an aerial picture and a map.
http://www.vallecitolakechamber.com/maps/index.asp

I'm looking for an area measurement of the lake itself still, but it is very large.

ETA - I see PsychicSleuth has posted details regarding miles of shoreline, and width of the lake. I'll see if I can't still find an acre number, or volume number so that it can be compared with Lake Powell and Lake Mead if that will help some to visualize it better.

ETA2 - Found one of the figures I was looking for;

http://www.lakelubbers.com/vallecito-lake-1443/

Vallecito Reservoir - 22 miles of shoreline, 7 miles long
Detroit Lake - 32 miles of shoreline, 9 miles long
Lake Powell - 1900 miles of shoreline, 186 miles long, 658 Sq. KM of surface area
Lake Mead - 550 miles of shoreline, 120 miles long (though it stores more water than Lake Powell)
Lake Argyle in Australia - 900 Sq. KM of surface area

 

[sreshowtime]

From looking at the map intently today...well, I hope land searches are still being considered, and maybe even being done where snow isn't impeding. There are certainly some interesting places, imho, that someone could have used. Hope Dylan can be brought home.

 

[Psychic Sleuth]

From looking at the map intently today...well, I hope land searches are still being considered, and maybe even being done where snow isn't impeding. There are certainly some interesting places, imho, that someone could have used. Hope Dylan can be brought home.

I believe Wendy and her dogs will be back soon. It's kind of hard to search without having specific area's to search. They can only cover so much ground. I'm thinking if he isn't found in the lake there will be more private/volunteer searches after the thaw.

 

[Redhead72]

From looking at the map intently today...well, I hope land searches are still being considered, and maybe even being done where snow isn't impeding. There are certainly some interesting places, imho, that someone could have used. Hope Dylan can be brought home.

I hope so as well, there are millions of acres of public land surrounding Vallecito Lake...

"The San Juan National Forest and Weminuche Wilderness, over 2.5 million acres of public land, surround Vallecito Lake."

http://www.vallecitolakechamber.com/AboutLake/index.asp

O/T taking a break for a while - waiting for 2 of my daughters to come home as it's getting near dark here now. Always a stressful time for me, and reading at the site while waiting makes me kinda paranoid.