CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #47

[Emma Ems]

I don't think that search warrants are issued lightly. Email/computer/phone can be searched without a warrant if it's a matter of national defense, but otherwise not. A warrant is only issued when there is probable cause. What probable cause was there that a crime occurred in the father's home? Without probable cause, there is no warrant. The fact that Dylan was last at his father's house, and the father left early in the morning, is enough to open the possibility that Dylan left of his own free will - especially in light of the hitch-hiking rumors.

Sorry to requote you but how about the last phone communication and ping? No activity since, would that be sufficient along with the fact Dylan being either abducted or harmed?

 

[dlc]

We don't have to go back any years, or even days. There are more than 21,000 non-family abductions perpetrated by strangers every year in the US. Multiples of them every single day. They just don't all hit national news. But the most recent to hit national news would be the girl in Northridge CA just a couple days ago (can't use her name on the forum any more).

Because stranger non-family abductions are fewer than non-stranger non-family abductions, and because they are relatively rare in comparison to the vast numbers of all types of abductions and missing children cases, they are, very unfortunately, by no means scarce.

Dear Cheese,

I'm baaccckkkk! Damn this insomnia.

I had looked at your link last time you posted it, but took another look tonight. Not wanting to get entangled in all of the non-strange strangers and other semantic issues, because I am actually tired -- I just can't sleep, I'll just cut right to the quick, posted on the first text page of the document:

"■ During the study year, there were an estimated 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions per- petrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.

■ In 40 percent of stereotypical kidnappings, the child was killed, and in another 4 percent, the child was not recovered."

BBM


So, if Dylan (God forbid) ends up being the victim of a kidnapping by a stranger, or a "slight acquaintance," he will fall into that category of the estimated 115 children each year who are kidnapped in the same manner.

If, again God forbid, it ends up that he was killed by that person, he will be in the 40% of that group, kidnapped by strangers or slight acquaintances, who have their lives taken. I believe the number would be somewhere around 46 children.

If Dylan has been taken by a stranger or slight acquaintance and is never recovered, he will be one of approximately 4 children to meet this fate in the given year.

One missing child is too many, and I am not trying to diminish the scope of the problem, and I do appreciate your post.

Thank you.

JMO, etc.

 

[mixologist74]

You mentioned kidnapping/abduction being a warrantless crime, meaning you don't need a warrant to search correct? I am just wondering if it was presented to a judge in this way(we don't need a warrant to search because we believe he was abducted but can you sign off on one just in case we uncover something that points us in a different direction?) could they get one? Someone mentioned a warrant served on Jessica's Ridgeway's house, how was that warrant obtained? Why did they even need one?

This is a good question, WRT the Ridgeway home.

 

[Ghostwheel]

Well there are many more than 110 abductions by strangers each year. Finkelhor seems to be confusing stereotypical kidnappings with stranger abductions, but I find that many people don't understand the difference.

There are 58,200 non-family abductions per year, with more than 21,000 of those stranger perpetrated abductions, according to NCMEC and NISMART.

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

I agree that stranger abductions are relatively more rare than non-stranger non-family abductions, and certainly relatively more rare than non-stranger non-family abductions combined with family abductions, although that's mixing apples and oranges IMO.

Thanks for clarifying, although now I'm confused because someone above said you meant abductions only of young teen boys. Doesn't matter. I'm now interested in calculating how many of the 21,000+ stranger abductions per year are of teen boys.

BBM: OK, I feel stupid right now. I do not see on this link where there are 21,000 stranger perpetrated abductions. I searched and do not find it. Can you please tell me where this is? I really want to know, because it is completely different than EVERYTHING else I can find out on the 'net.

TIA

 

[Confusion]

I don't think that search warrants are issued lightly. Email/computer/phone can be searched without a warrant if it's a matter of national defense, but otherwise not. A warrant is only issued when there is probable cause. What probable cause was there that a crime occurred in the father's home? Without probable cause, there is no warrant. The fact that Dylan was last at his father's house, and the father left early in the morning, is enough to open the possibility that Dylan left of his own free will - especially in light of the hitch-hiking rumors.

BBM

There doesn't have to be probable cause that a crime was committed there if there is probable cause that there could be evidence of a crime there. If there were fingerprints that didn't belong there, signs of blood, emails, IMs, texts, etc. sent to or from the computer or any other device, or other evidence that might lead them to a perp, one could be issued even if MR wasn't a suspect (as LE said). MOO

 

[The Cheese]

BBM: I think you may have this written wrong. A non-family abduction is not the same as a stranger non-family abduction. Per this link:
http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf
Non-family abductions are approximately 58,200 per year.
Stranger or slight acquaintance kidnappings are 115 per year. (That isn't multiples per day) Out of those 80 are female, 35 are male, and I didn't see the breakdown by male age.

No, I didn't write it wrong. The 115 per year are stereotypical kidnappings, not stranger abductions.

Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

Directly to the right of that you'll see that 71% of the 115 stereotypical kidnappings are perpetrated by strangers.

Stranger abductions and stereotypical kidnappings are not synonymous.

It's all in the document I keep posting

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

ETA adding in this quote because the answer is in my post herein

BBM: OK, I feel stupid right now. I do not see on this link where there are 21,000 stranger perpetrated abductions. I searched and do not find it. Can you please tell me where this is? I really want to know, because it is completely different than EVERYTHING else I can find out on the 'net.

TIA

Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

 

[The Cheese]

Dear Cheese,

I'm baaccckkkk! Damn this insomnia.

I had looked at your link last time you posted it, but took another look tonight. Not wanting to get entangled in all of the non-strange strangers and other semantic issues, because I am actually tired -- I just can't sleep, I'll just cut right to the quick, posted on the first text page of the document:

"■ During the study year, there were an estimated 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions per- petrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.

■ In 40 percent of stereotypical kidnappings, the child was killed, and in another 4 percent, the child was not recovered."

BBM


So, if Dylan (God forbid) ends up being the victim of a kidnapping by a stranger, or a "slight acquaintance," he will fall into that category of the estimated 115 children each year who are kidnapped in the same manner.

If, again God forbid, it ends up that he was killed by that person, he will be in the 40% of that group, kidnapped by strangers or slight acquaintances, who have their lives taken. I believe the number would be somewhere around 46 children.

If Dylan has been taken by a stranger or slight acquaintance and is never recovered, he will be one of approximately 4 children to meet this fate in the given year.

One missing child is too many, and I am not trying to diminish the scope of the problem, and I do appreciate your post.

Thank you.

JMO, etc.

Please see the post I just posted. You are confusing stranger abductions and slight acquaintance abductions with stereotypical kidnappings. In the same table in my last post, you'll find the number non-family abductions that are perpetrated by slight acquaintances, and directly to the right of that, you'll find the number of stereotypical kidnappings that are perpetrated by slight acquaintances.

Stranger abductions and slight acquaintance abductions are not synonymous with stereotypical kidnappings. There are more criteria that must be met to be categorized as a stereotypical kidnapping than whether it was committed by a stranger or slight acquaintance.

It's all detailed in the document

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

ETA here's my last post I'm referring to

No, I didn't write it wrong. The 115 per year are stereotypical kidnappings, not stranger abductions.

Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

Directly to the right of that you'll see that 71% of the 115 stereotypical kidnappings are perpetrated by strangers.

Stranger abductions and stereotypical kidnappings are not synonymous.

It's all in the document I keep posting

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

ETA adding in this quote because the answer is in my post herein



Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

ETA you actually listed all the other criteria for a stereotypical kidnapping in your post

and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.

 

[Confusion]

Please see the post I just posted. You are confusing stranger abductions and slight acquaintance abductions with stereotypical kidnappings. In the same table in my last post, you'll find the number non-family abductions that are perpetrated by slight acquaintances, and directly to the right of that, you'll find the number of stereotypical kidnappings that are perpetrated by slight acquaintances.

Stranger abductions and slight acquaintance abductions are not synonymous with stereotypical kidnappings. There are more criteria that must be met to be categorized as a stereotypical kidnapping than whether it was committed by a stranger or slight acquaintance.

It's all detailed in the document

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

ETA here's my last post I'm referring to

I'm afraid that at this point, it's been a stereotypical kidnapping, a family abduction or someone close to the family. MOO

 

[Ghostwheel]

No, I didn't write it wrong. The 115 per year are stereotypical kidnappings, not stranger abductions.

Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

Directly to the right of that you'll see that 71% of the 115 stereotypical kidnappings are perpetrated by strangers.

Stranger abductions and stereotypical kidnappings are not synonymous.

It's all in the document I keep posting

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

ETA adding in this quote because the answer is in my post herein



Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

I see what you are saying, we are having two different conversations. I thought we were discussing cases like Dylan's, where he has been gone for more than 24 hours. That fits into the Stereotypical kidnapping description, unless he is willingly with someone:

Stereotypical kidnapping: A nonfamily abduction perpetrated by a slight acquaintance or stranger in which a child is detained overnight, transported at least 50 miles, held for ransom or abducted with intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.

A non-family stranger abduction can mean anything from a groundskeeper keeping a kid after school to pick up trash for littering (holding the child against his will) up to and including a stereotypical kidnapping.

Again, I thought we were trying to figure out other cases like Dylan's, not all the different kinds of stranger abductions that are possible.

 

[otto]

Dylan is missing. There are two likely scenarios left. Abduction and/or foul play. Both of those are crimes. Therefore his being missing is the crime and probable cause for a warrant. It's very likely there may be clues or evidence as to what happened to him in the last place he was known to be, Mark's home. It's unreasonable to assume there may be evidence at the last place he was known to be, it's also reasonable to assume that the house could be the location of where the crime occurred. It's not reasonable to assume that Dylan could have been either harmed inside the house, OR abducted from inside the house.

BBM

Even if we change "reasonable" to "unreasonable", this is where it doesn't follow:

"Both of those are crimes. Therefore his being missing is the crime and probable cause for a warrant" ... for the father's home.

He is missing is not probable cause for a search warrant for the father's home.

 

[otto]

Have all the passengers on the plane been ruled out? ... keeping in mind that Dylan flew a short distance but it took several hours. He routinely slept in his clothes and probably hadn't had enough sleep when he was flying to visit his dad (perhaps reluctantly, but eager to see friends). He probably stood out like an unhappy 14 year old. Maybe he met someone at the airport, or on the plane, that offered to stop by if he needed a lift in the morning?

Was Dylan likely to arrive late without calling ahead about a delay?

 

[The Cheese]

I see what you are saying, we are having two different conversations. I thought we were discussing cases like Dylan's, where he has been gone for more than 24 hours. That fits into the Stereotypical kidnapping description, unless he is willingly with someone:

Stereotypical kidnapping: A nonfamily abduction perpetrated by a slight acquaintance or stranger in which a child is detained overnight, transported at least 50 miles, held for ransom or abducted with intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.

A non-family stranger abduction can mean anything from a groundskeeper keeping a kid after school to pick up trash for littering (holding the child against his will) up to and including a stereotypical kidnapping.

Again, I thought we were trying to figure out other cases like Dylan's, not all the different kinds of stranger abductions that are possible.

We're having the same conversation. I am trying to figure out what happened to Dylan. I've never considered that a groundskeeper may be holding Dylan to pick up trash for littering. That wouldn't even enter my mind in any of these cases. I am definitely not trying to figure out all the different kinds of stranger abductions that are possible. :facepalm:

 

[otto]

I'm afraid that at this point, it's been a stereotypical kidnapping, a family abduction or someone close to the family. MOO

That's what was said of the Evansdale murders as well ... family involved. That is no longer possible ... given where and how they were found. Hunters should think back to if they were in the woods and whether they saw anyone else.

This strikes me as a stranger abduction while hitching a lift.

 

[otto]

We're having the same conversation. I am trying to figure out what happened to Dylan. I've never considered that a groundskeeper may be holding Dylan to pick up trash for littering. That wouldn't even enter my mind in any of these cases. I am definitely not trying to figure out all the different kinds of stranger abductions that are possible. :facepalm:

Sadly, in most of these cases, a body is found months later in a remote location, not buried. Decomposition obscures most evidence. Usually the body was there from three hours after the last interaction/sighting of the child. Often the child is dead before reported missing.
(my own opinion from reading too much)

 

[otto]

BBM

There doesn't have to be probable cause that a crime was committed there if there is probable cause that there could be evidence of a crime there. If there were fingerprints that didn't belong there, signs of blood, emails, IMs, texts, etc. sent to or from the computer or any other device, or other evidence that might lead them to a perp, one could be issued even if MR wasn't a suspect (as LE said). MOO

There has to be some evidence to support the theory that there is evidence of a crime at a particular location. Fingerprints cannot be found without a warrant. There has to be a better reason than: we might find fingerprints. Prosecutors cannot argue that they want to go on a fishing expedition so they need justifiable reasons for requesting a warrant.

 

[The Cheese]

I'm afraid that at this point, it's been a stereotypical kidnapping, a family abduction or someone close to the family. MOO

A family abduction or non-family non-stranger non-slight acquaintance abduction in which the perpetrator was engaging in a misguided attempt to "save" or "help" Dylan is among my "most likely" theories right now. I would think that would be a viable theory for most people here, and is very much a reason I was attempting to discuss non-family abductions.

I think a stranger abduction, stereotypical or not, is less likely.

:twocents:

 

[The Cheese]

Sadly, in most of these cases, a body is found months later in a remote location, not buried. Decomposition obscures most evidence. Usually the body was there from three hours after the last interaction/sighting of the child. Often the child is dead before reported missing.
(my own opinion from reading too much)

When a young child like Dylan is missing for an extended period of time as he is, I don't hold much hope at all that they are still alive. I think there are factors in Dylan's case that are different, and I find more hope in his case than I've found in most, if not all, other similar cases I've followed.

:twocents:

 

[Redhead72]

With all the talk about statistics of missing children, where do the actual crime rates in Vallecito/Bayfield/Durango figure in to all of that. We have to consider the fact that this was a very small, remote area, and it's not a big city, nor even a "medium"-size city. I'm assuming not many people lock their houses or even their car doors up unless they will be gone for a long period of time. Also take into account that I believe it was something like 25 years since any child, of any age, male or female had gone missing in the county.

We can look at nationwide statistics all we want, but major factors in DR's case that would point away from a stranger abduction are; density of population, average crime rates, general public access (both to get into the area, and get out quickly after an abduction), etc...

IMHO considering all of the above, I would think it highly unlikely that DR was abducted by a complete and total stranger, and very unlikely that he was abducted by someone outside the family that was known to him. But, of course, those are my opinions only, and based upon the above factors involved.

I don't see what good it is to look at statistics that cover many different social settings (city vs. rural), geographical crime rates in the area the abduction occurred, and numerous other factors that can never fully be explored.

 

[Confusion]

There has to be some evidence to support the theory that there is evidence of a crime at a particular location. Fingerprints cannot be found without a warrant. There has to be a better reason than: we might find fingerprints. Prosecutors cannot argue that they want to go on a fishing expedition so they need justifiable reasons for requesting a warrant.

What they said was that it was the last place he was seen, and they believed he either left the home and was abducted or something happened to him in the home. What I said earlier was that they would most likely be looking for signs of a struggle (blood, etc.) or something that might indicate who he may have left with - emails, texts, IMs, photographs, etc. If he was (supposedly) known to have entered the home, and nobody admits to seeing him since (other than his father), he either has to still be in the house or something probably happened to him. I have no idea where the bolded part came from; I said that those would be the type of things they would be searching for. MOO

ETA: Looking back at my other post, I really didn't word things the way I meant them. I can see why you misunderstood me.

 

[otto]

When a young child like Dylan is missing for an extended period of time as he is, I don't hold much hope at all that they are still alive. I think there are factors in Dylan's case that are different, and I find more hope in his case than I've found in most, if not all, other similar cases I've followed.

:twocents:

Hope is good.