Found Deceased CO - Joseph Keller, 18, Antonito, 23 July 2015 - #1

[GigTu]

Responding to Gigtu's post ...

I'm sorry, I'm confused. Are you saying the possibility that his disappearance could be attributed to a fall from becoming disoriented, dizzy, ill, etc. from high altitude has not been brought up before? Here or elsewhere? Thanks ...

No. I'm saying the opposite, which was dripping with sarcasm. I was agreeing with Caramel.

 

[Caramel]

My main concern about this case is that strong (and, in some, angry) beliefs are being held on the basis of, literally, no information. People like patterns. People like to have earthly, human foes to be overcome. I'm trying to steer at least some of the conversation in an Occam's Razor direction. Even if it's not the most appealing to the sensibilities of the bereft, what's the simplest explanation that accounts for what is known (not what is suspected, because suspicion can emerge from the biases - including pre-existing fears - of those forming the suspicions)?

 

[GigTu]

You mean the stuff I clearly labeled as hearsay? And, yes, altitude sickness and accident/injury/fatality have been discussed relative to this case from very early on. Please review the early pages of this discussion. I'm not really sure what objection or emotion you are trying to advance in this post, exactly.

I was following your lead and agreeing with you. Clearly it was not communicated well, even though it sounded spot on in my head. Sorry to confuse.

=/

 

[Caramel]

Okay. Good clarification. I had no idea this was your intent. (replying to Gigtu's clarification. I forgot to include the quote.)

 

[Caramel]

And the thing is, if this were to be truthful, why was this knowledge withheld from the public?

Why did they wait for several hours, then go look for him?

Surely, if the friend was throwing up, one can assume that it could have happened to Joe, but yet they waited a couple hours before even searching.

" "But after two hours passed and he didn't come home, we went out looking." "
http://www.nbcnews.com/dateline/weeks-after-teen-vanishes-during-run-still-no-answers-n412306

IMOO.

Good questions. Totally anecdotally, I'm thinking that whether, when, and how to worry/take action/organize a search party/call the authorities is a lot less obvious in the moment than it is retrospectively.

 

[Treelights]

Good questions. Totally anecdotally, I'm thinking that whether, when, and how to worry/take action/organize a search party/call the authorities is a lot less obvious in the moment than it is retrospectively.

This is true.
For myself, if I was getting sick after running in a high altitude, I would think if my buddy that I was supposed to eat dinner with and was supposed to be back in an hour, wasn't back after that set upon time, (run a half hour, then run back to equal an hour of running, jogging, etc.,) I personally would have been concerned that this happened to my buddy as well. (But I am like that. If it could happen to me, it could happen to you. That is my personality.)
I am that type of person that if you say you are going to be back at x amount of time and x location, I am going to believe you because that is what we agreed upon.
I am a literal person, and sometimes that is a fault, but if I say I am going to be here or there at a set time, you can trust that I will be, or something has happened to me.
If you tell me that you are going to be somewhere at the agreed upon time, I am going to believe you, (particularly since Both of them were running in a high altitude, anything
could have happened. A fall, altitude sickness, etc.) Why would I think my buddy would change his mind when we agreed upon meeting at x time and x place?
I am looking at it through the eyes of my personality,though.

IMOO.

 

[inmyhumbleopinion]

My main concern about this case is that strong (and, in some, angry) beliefs are being held on the basis of, literally, no information. People like patterns. People like to have earthly, human foes to be overcome. I'm trying to steer at least some of the conversation in an Occam's Razor direction. Even if it's not the most appealing to the sensibilities of the bereft, what's the simplest explanation that accounts for what is known (not what is suspected, because suspicion can emerge from the biases - including pre-existing fears - of those forming the suspicions)?

Thank you so much for this excellent post, Caramel!

One of the things I find unusual about this case is that (and this may just be my perception) at least so far, all searches and investigations have been conducted based almost entirely on one person's account of what transpired during the time period that is (IMO) most crucial to solving the case. There really isn't much that has been corroborated by others, other than that Joe did make it to the ranch prior to his disappearance. While I do take anything that is posted on SMS with a grain of salt (and sometimes more ), someone who appears to be Joe's sister-in-law posted on the FJK page a pretty detailed timeline of events between when Joe and his friends arrived at the ranch and when Joe and CG went for their supposed run. This came from the FJK page, too, but someone whom I recognize as a colleague of my father's posted that her nephew (or nephews) met Joe at the ranch the afternoon before he went missing. Based on the above information, I am satisfied that Joe was at the ranch on July 23rd.

Beyond that, as far as I'm concerned, the only thing I consider to be fact is that CG made it back to/was at the ranch (obviously) later that evening when LP arrived at the ranch.

I'm still not convinced that Joe and CG actually went for a run that afternoon. It has been rumored that one of Joe's cousins saw them leave, but I haven't seen anything (MSM or otherwise) to support this.

From the very beginning, I have been trying to find something that confirms that the fisherman CG allegedly waved at actually saw CG, too, but so far to no avail. As far as the fisherman not seeing Joe, he was there to fish (not to people-watch), so I don't consider the whole fisherman episode material.

Beyond that ...: Not once have I seen the time when CG and/or CF first alerted anyone as to Joe's disappearance. I know that the colleague of my father's posted on FB that Joe's aunt announced to the guests at the ranch that her nephew had gone missing, and that some of them even helped with the search, but that wasn't until the following morning. So, even if I were to be absolutely convinced that Joe and CG left the ranch at "4:25 p.m. Mountain time," I still have no idea what happened between that and a little after midnight, when LE finally showed up. By then, Joe would have been missing for over 7 -seven!- hours. I know that on the FJK page, CG's brother said at first CG and CF thought Joe was playing a prank on them, and that the two waited "for hours" for Joe to return. In reply, a poster questioned as to why wait "for hours," to which the brother said it was actually "an hour or so." After that, again, according to CG's brother, CG and CF went out to look for Joe on their own, and when they couldn't find him, they called "someone." Now if CG actually became ill to the point where he vomited, as revealed for the first time almost 1.5 months later -by an admin of the FJK page, no less-, the question of "Why wait 'for hours'?" becomes even more pertinent, IMO.

I know this is so long, but just one more thing: As far as I can tell, CG has been the only one to say that the local LE were the ones who wanted Joe's family to keep quiet; he posted this on his personal FB page very early on. I know that this claim has been repeated by others numerous times since, but the best I can tell, that's where it originated. I cannot link since CG's FB page is no longer active.

 

[Treelights]

Thank you so much for this excellent post, Caramel!

One of the things I find unusual about this case is that (and this may just be my perception) at least so far, all searches and investigations have been conducted based almost entirely on one person's account of what transpired during a time period that is most crucial to solving the case. There really isn't much that has been corroborated by others, other than that Joe did make it to the ranch prior to his disappearance. While I do take anything that is posted on SMS with a grain of salt (and sometimes more ), someone who appears to be Joe's sister-in-law posted a pretty detailed timeline of events between when Joe and his friends arrived at the ranch and when Joe and CG went for their supposed run. This came from FB, too, but someone whom I recognize as a colleague of my father's posted that her nephew (or nephews) met Joe at the ranch the afternoon before he went missing. Based on the above information, I am satisfied that Joe was at the ranch on July 22nd.

Beyond that, as far as I'm concerned, the only thing I consider to be fact is that CG made it back to/was at the ranch (obviously) later that evening when LP arrived at the ranch.

I'm still not convinced that Joe and CG actually went for a run that afternoon. It has been rumored that one of Joe's cousins saw them leave, but I haven't seen anything (MSM or otherwise) to support this.

From the very beginning, I have been trying to find something that confirms that the fisherman CG allegedly waved at actually saw CG, too, but so far to no avail. As far as the fisherman not seeing Joe, he was there to fish (not to people-watch), so I don't consider the whole fisherman episode material.

Beyond that ...: Not once have I seen the time when CG and/or CF first alerted anyone as to Joe's disappearance. I know that the colleague of my father's posted on FB that Joe's aunt announced to the guests at the ranch that her nephew had gone missing, and that some of them even helped with the search, but that wasn't until the following morning. So, even if I were to be absolutely convinced that Joe and CG left the ranch at "4:25 p.m. Mountain time," I still have no idea what happened between that and a little after midnight, when LE finally showed up. By then, Joe would have been missing for over 7 -seven!- hours. I know that on the FJK page, CG's brother said at first CG and CF thought Joe was playing a prank on them, and that the two waited "for hours" for Joe to return. In reply, a poster questioned as to why wait "for hours," to which the brother said it was actually "an hour or so." After that, again, according to CG's brother, CG and CF went out to look for Joe on their own, and when they couldn't find him, they called "someone." Now if CG actually became ill to the point where he vomited, as claimed by the admin of the FJK page, why wait so long to contact anyone?

I know this is so long, but just one more thing: As far as I can tell, CG has been the only one to say that the local LE were the ones who wanted Joe's family to keep quiet; he posted this on his personal FB page very early on. I know that this claim has been repeated by others numerous times since, but the best I can tell, that's where it originated. I cannot link since CG's FB page is no longer active.

This brings up my question about July 22nd.
Previously, I wondered why, on Joe's NamUs profile, it refers to the date of July 22nd, and not July 23rd.

"Date last seen
July 22, 2015 04:25"

https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/29578/0/

https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/case_report_html/29578

But the time is at 4:25 in the morning. And on the 22nd.

The MSM links that I have seen, (other than NamUs) all list him missing on the 23rd of July.

IMOO.

 

[inmyhumbleopinion]

This brings up my question about July 22nd.
Previously, I wondered why, on Joe's NamUs profile, it refers to the date of July 22nd, and not July 23rd.

"Date last seen
July 22, 2015 04:25"

https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/29578/0/

https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/case_report_html/29578

But the time is at 4:25 in the morning. And on the 22nd.

The MSM links that I have seen, (other than NamUs) all list him missing on the 23rd of July.

IMOO.

Thanks for the correction, Treelights! You are absolutely right (and this is what happens when I don't double-check the sources as I write :facepalm: ...)! I've changed the date to the 23rd in my previous post also.

 

[CookieM]

Such a curious case...
I finally read all the posts, but need some clarification:

It was mentioned that the guys went trap shooting. Is this a ranch activity, or something they did on their own?

MSM reports say that CG was the last to see JK. In an above post it was stated that people on the ranch saw him that afternoon. Is that verified by a link anywhere, and if so do we have a time? (Sorry, I tried to look at all links, but I literally started reading this thread today and my eyes are a bit glazed after getting through all the pages, and it's been hard to discern what was in reference to a fb comment and to be taken as rumor, and what we can put more weight on.)

Also, I read that the dogs did not pick up hes scent at all. I find this odd. I thought it was pretty early on that the dogs were brought out and I didn't think there had been rain in the area that may have washed away the scent, but I'm certainly no SAR expert, although I know we have some available on WebSlueths. I'm curious as to why there was no scent picked up at all and if the dogs could have at least picked up the scent of his friend, or if these pooches had faulty sniffers...

TIA to anyone who can clarify for me!

 

[Caramel]

Trapshooting is a ranch activity. In the first paragraph on the Rainbow Trout Ranch website, it says:

"Rainbow Trout Ranch is the perfect Colorado dude ranch vacation for adults, families, singles, couples, groups and anyone else who wants a family ranch vacation. Offering exceptional Colorado horseback riding, superb Colorado fly fishing, awesome children’s programs and a fun teen ranch program in Colorado, trapshooting, swimming, day trips to Taos, whitewater rafting and the chance to ride America’s highest and longest narrow-gauge steam train, the dude ranch brings timeless simpler pleasures to life in a spectacular setting."

 

[Treelights]

Such a curious case...
I finally read all the posts, but need some clarification:

It was mentioned that the guys went trap shooting. Is this a ranch activity, or something they did on their own?

MSM reports say that CG was the last to see JK. In an above post it was stated that people on the ranch saw him that afternoon. Is that verified by a link anywhere, and if so do we have a time? (Sorry, I tried to look at all links, but I literally started reading this thread today and my eyes are a bit glazed after getting through all the pages, and it's been hard to discern what was in reference to a fb comment and to be taken as rumor, and what we can put more weight on.)

Also, I read that the dogs did not pick up hes scent at all. I find this odd. I thought it was pretty early on that the dogs were brought out and I didn't think there had been rain in the area that may have washed away the scent, but I'm certainly no SAR expert, although I know we have some available on WebSlueths. I'm curious as to why there was no scent picked up at all and if the dogs could have at least picked up the scent of his friend, or if these pooches had faulty sniffers...

TIA to anyone who can clarify for me!

I don't know if they went trap shooting on their own.
I do know that the ranch offers trap shooting.

"Family Ranch Vacation Rates Include... (Snipped By Me...) trapshooting/archery"

http://rainbowtroutranch.com/colorado-dude-ranch-rates/

IMOO.

 

[Caramel]

It can be enlightening to Google: search dogs no trace

I'm sure there are statistical resources available somewhere about search dogs not being able to add anything, but the results returned in a casual search show that it's, at least, precedented for dogs to find nothing.

I can't recall where I saw it -- possibly on the Conejos County Sheriff's Office's Facebook page (although I can't find it now) -- but one of the dog searches for Joe was messed up by someone unrelatedly scattering human cremated remains in the area. Did anyone else see that note? Do you know which dog search that was?

 

[bakerlady]

Of all the cases I have followed on WS this is the most baffling and frustrating. Early on MSM said the FBI was involved.

Normally I would think of the most simple explanation but not in this case. The silence is deafening and I think it is intentional due to the family being placed on some type of witness protection program to avoid retribution from a powerful gang/cartel in the area. That is the only reason I can think of as to why the family and local LE are being so secretive.

 

[bakerlady]

It can be enlightening to Google: search dogs no trace

I'm sure there are statistical resources available somewhere about search dogs not being able to add anything, but the results returned in a casual search show that it's, at least, precedented for dogs to find nothing.

I can't recall where I saw it -- possibly on the Conejos County Sheriff's Office's Facebook page (although I can't find it now) -- but one of the dog searches for Joe was messed up by someone unrelatedly scattering human cremated remains in the area. Did anyone else see that note? Do you know which dog search that was?

That is the Deorr Kunz case with the ashes. Not Joe.

 

[Caramel]

Of all the cases I have followed on WS this is the most baffling and frustrating. Early on MSM said the FBI was involved.

Normally I would think of the most simple explanation but not in this case. The silence is deafening and I think it is intentional due to the family being placed on some type of witness protection program to avoid retribution from a powerful gang/cartel in the area. That is the only reason I can think of as to why the family and local LE are being so secretive.

This is one of those No Information, therefore Specific Conclusion things that baffle me so much.

Thank you for the clarification about the cremated remains.

 

[bakerlady]

This is one of those No Information, therefore Specific Conclusion things that baffle me so much.

Thank you for the clarification about the cremated remains.

Well normally when a person goes missing the family gets on the news and begs for whoever took him to give him back. LE usually advises this because it humanizes the victim and might give a kidnapper a second thought and he might free them. It also works with witnesses. In theory the reward is supposed to motivate as well but in my recollection not many rewards have ever been claimed. One would also try to get on the news to urge people to join them in a large search party, to keep their eyes open if they are in the area, report suspicious activity, etc. I have not seen any of this.

From what I gather the search radius is mostly public property so that makes it even easier to form a search party.

If LE thought Joe had an accident was vulnerable out alone in the wilderness there would be absolutely no reason for them to instruct the family to be quiet about the investigation. Therefore my deductive reasoning tells me something very criminal has happened.

 

[Caramel]

I guess I have been under the impression that the family has made statements in the few news outlets that exist in the area. Hundreds of people have participated in searches. The friends and family-operated Facebook search page has been actively maintained. I have not had the same impression of silence.

Note: There's no local television news south of Colorado Springs/Pueblo and north of Albuquerque.

 

[CookieM]

It can be enlightening to Google: search dogs no trace

I'm sure there are statistical resources available somewhere about search dogs not being able to add anything, but the results returned in a casual search show that it's, at least, precedented for dogs to find nothing.

I can't recall where I saw it -- possibly on the Conejos County Sheriff's Office's Facebook page (although I can't find it now) -- but one of the dog searches for Joe was messed up by someone unrelatedly scattering human cremated remains in the area. Did anyone else see that note? Do you know which dog search that was?

Thanks! I'll be sure and Google next time ;-)

 

[bakerlady]

For example, from the article linked above (http://www.yankeemagazine.com/article/features/mysteries/vanished/2)

Probably nothing grips the hearts and minds of people as does the specter of a lost child wandering helplessly in a woods, waiting for rescue. Radio and television appeals touched Mainers from all walks of life. Buses brought workers from paper mills and factories from throughout northern and central Maine. College students, crusty woodsmen, and an elite six-man mountain rescue unit joined together at Natanis Pond. Cars lined Route 27 for more than a mile, the feet of bone-weary volunteers poking through half-opened windows. To feed the searchers, who one day numbered fifteen hundred, women from the Kingfield-Stratton area solicited food from their neighbors to stock their civil defense kitchens, until soon donations poured in from as far away as one hundred miles.

This is what I expect when someone goes missing in the wilderness.

EDIT: oops now I am confusing this with the Deorr thread but either way we have two missing people in similar circumstances.