Here is a graph using Rossmo's formula based on the NOCO shatterings Forager considers most likely to be cause by a serial shooter. The data is from the amazing spreadsheet Forager has put together.
The area is huge. Blue areas mean cold and are an unlikely anchor point (home, work etc) for the criminal. Squares closer to and red indicate a hot zone and a more likely anchor point. If LE were doing this they would have and use a lot more informatiom to build their probabilities, order of crimes, time of day, roads, traffic, weather etc. I've only been looking at this stuff for a week or two and am just experimenting..So take it with a grain of salt, all I've used is the data points. The white outline square, near the middle is the average point of all the crimes.
Forager has kindly overlaid the hot parts of the graoh over a map so you can see where they are:
Hopefully we'll find out sooner than later if these graphs are close or not.
Thanks Forager for your awesome data sheets and overlaying the graph.
Thanks for working up that Rossmo graphic for us! I feel like I've stepped onto the set of that TV show "NUMB3RS" I'd be fascinated to know more about the approach.
Does the approach take dates into account? I've been struck at how the many of the earliest shattering incidents took place on the stretch of I-25 northeast of Longmont.
I have a small correction for your description of the graphic. The points in the data set were the 2015 window shatterings that most closely followed the MO of what I take to be "our" window shatterer: unexplained shatterings on I-25 proper involving side, rear or roof windows. I excluded a dozen other shatterings on smaller roads in NoCO, and excluded the Romero, Connole and Jacoby shootings.
Thanks again for your work. You are definitely pushing the envelope on this!
Thanks for working up that Rossmo graphic for us! I feel like I've stepped onto the set of that TV show "NUMB3RS" I'd be fascinated to know more about the approach.
Does the approach take dates into account? I've been struck at how the many of the earliest shattering incidents took place on the stretch of I-25 northeast of Longmont.
I have a small correction for your description of the graphic. The points in the data set were the 2015 window shatterings that most closely followed the MO of what I take to be "our" window shatterer: unexplained shatterings on I-25 proper involving side, rear or roof windows. I excluded a dozen other shatterings on smaller roads in NoCO, and excluded the Romero, Connole and Jacoby shootings.
Thanks again for your work. You are definitely pushing the envelope on this!
Man shot while traveling on I-70
http://www.9news.com/news/local/man-shot-while-traveling-on-i-70/288362296
"ELBERT COUNTY - A man was shot several times around 12:47 a.m. Friday while traveling along Interstate 70.
The man, who is from Kansas, was traveling east on I-70 when a blue Honda four-door vehicle pulled alongside him and started firing."
(Have we referenced a similar vehicle before?)
Snip
"The victim said two men were in the Honda. He described the driver as having curly blond hair. He was wearing a black hoodie and khaki shorts. The passenger was wearing a white T-shirt and black pants. Neither the suspects or vehicle have been located."
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25
Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25
Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25
Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...