GUILTY CO - Possible Serial Shooter Has Colorado Drivers on Edge *Arrest* #4

[FindHG]

Good point! The proportions are even more impressive if you discount the incidents for which we have times of day. 11 out of 20 then fall between 8:00 and 11:00 AM.

Do the 11 cluster in one area or are they spread out? Thanks, but it was magz thought.

 

[searchinGirl]

Notes: jmo, moo, brainstorming:

He/they are Downrange from the moving target? Approx 1/4 mile down. (Theory of relativity. Adjacent.)
About a half mile off the side of the road? In this case, West?
Entry and exit points. Egress.
Embankment. Near the Little Thompson River, etc? Construction site? Construction vehicle, using door. Dirt roads.
Aut .308 rifle. Very compacted dry ice bullets.

I've gone back lately thinking that high-tech drones are involved here...they have huge commercial applications in agriculture and operators can get a commercial exemption to fly beyond visual line of sight...add to that a CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) that runs along the I-25 corridor and precision accuracy is enabled for quite a wide range... if this is the case, then it's quite an expensive proposition, however a worker might have access to it and well...get ideas...IMO...

 

[FindHG]

I've gone back lately thinking that high-tech drones are involved here...they have huge commercial applications in agriculture and operators can get a commercial exemption to fly beyond visual line of sight...add to that a CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) that runs along the I-25 corridor and precision accuracy is enabled for quite a wide range... if this is the case, then it's quite an expensive proposition, however a worker might have access to it and well...get ideas...IMO...

SearchinGirl... Would activity using such a system leave any trace, if I'm getting the right idea?

Gotta be heavily compacted dry ice.

Magz... very compacted dry ice would look like that against shattered glass, like paint?

 

[Forager]

I've gone back lately thinking that high-tech drones are involved here...they have huge commercial applications in agriculture and operators can get a commercial exemption to fly beyond visual line of sight...add to that a CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) that runs along the I-25 corridor and precision accuracy is enabled for quite a wide range... if this is the case, then it's quite an expensive proposition, however a worker might have access to it and well...get ideas...IMO...

I like the idea of a renegade worker or two secretly leveraging the resources of a high tech outfit. How would you picture them? Technicians or technical designers? Naughty nerds? Somewhat sociopathic thrill seekers?

I'm still hung up on the accuracy aspect. Drones can certainly assess locations around them very accurately, sometimes to an expected error measured in centimeters, but I don't think that they can place themselves with that kind of accuracy, much less set themselves or a gun with the accuracy needed to hit a car window without being very close to it. Am I misunderstanding?

 

[margarita25]

We need a parking lot thread, imo.

 

[margarita25]

Hot zone, fosho.

 

[Forager]

Forager
Good point! The proportions are even more impressive if you discount the incidents for which we have times of day. 11 out of 20 then fall between 8:00 and 11:00 AM.

Do the 11 cluster in one area or are they spread out? Thanks, but it was magz thought.

Here's the map with the shattered window dots color coded by time. What do you make of it?

5:00 AM - 7:59 AM is light blue
8:00 AM - 10:59 AM is yellow;
11:00 AM - 1:59 PM is orange;
2:00 PM -4:59 PM is red
5:00 PM -7:59 PM is purple
8:00 PM - 4:59 AM is dark blue (none on screenshot)
Incidents with unknown times get a white circle with a black outline.

 

[FindHG]

Here's the map with the shattered window dots color coded by time. What do you make of it?

5:00 AM - 7:59 AM is light blue
8:00 AM - 10:59 AM is yellow;
11:00 AM - 1:59 PM is orange;
2:00 PM -4:59 PM is red
5:00 PM -7:59 PM is purple
8:00 PM - 4:59 AM is dark blue (none on screenshot)
Incidents with unknown times get a white circle with a black outline.

View attachment 100671

Thank you, Forager. Wow! Looks great.

 

[FindHG]

Forager, to me, it looks like a methodical perp(s?), generally, weighs risks and rewards, if it's not debris with the same propensity. Locals could see more from it, as it seem particular to the way traffic moves there.

 

[searchinGirl]

That's what the CORS does...a set of control stations with seamless transitions from one area to the next...so one kind of GPS for navigation another for accuracy actually taking measurements and calculating...on a larger scale it's like the drone fire that killed jihadi-John from Las Vegas to Raqqa ...

 

[margarita25]

Here's the map with the shattered window dots color coded by time. What do you make of it?

5:00 AM - 7:59 AM is light blue
8:00 AM - 10:59 AM is yellow;
11:00 AM - 1:59 PM is orange;
2:00 PM -4:59 PM is red
5:00 PM -7:59 PM is purple
8:00 PM - 4:59 AM is dark blue (none on screenshot)
Incidents with unknown times get a white circle with a black outline.

View attachment 100671

Awesome. Thank you, Forager. Lots of yellows, it seems. I also wonder what a color code of day of the week would look like?

I would also like to bring forward some of the posts re: Rossmo's formula from upstream.

:lookingitup:

Eta:

Rossmo's formula:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossmo's_formula


Rossmo's formula is a geographic profiling formula to predict where a serial criminal lives. The formula was developed and patented[1] by criminologist Kim Rossmo and integrated into a specialized crime analysis software product called Rigel. The Rigel product is developed by the software company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. (ECRI), which Rossmo co-founded.[2]

Here is a graph using Rossmo's formula based on the NOCO shatterings Forager considers most likely to be cause by a serial shooter. The data is from the amazing spreadsheet Forager has put together.

The area is huge. Blue areas mean cold and are an unlikely anchor point (home, work etc) for the criminal. Squares closer to and red indicate a hot zone and a more likely anchor point. If LE were doing this they would have and use a lot more informatiom to build their probabilities, order of crimes, time of day, roads, traffic, weather etc. I've only been looking at this stuff for a week or two and am just experimenting..So take it with a grain of salt, all I've used is the data points. The white outline square, near the middle is the average point of all the crimes.

Forager has kindly overlaid the hot parts of the graoh over a map so you can see where they are:

Hopefully we'll find out sooner than later if these graphs are close or not.

Thanks Forager for your awesome data sheets and overlaying the graph.

I'm afriad this graph just takes into account the locations, not the order or dates. The geo formulas tend to suggest the crimes start further away from home/anchor and then as time and crimes contine the offender becomes more brazen and offends closer to home. However, NOCO shootings cover such a large area, and there is no disposal, just shoot and go..So it's quite possible they strarted close and went far..

There are a couple of formulas/models that take order and time of crimes into account, once I work out how they work, I;ll post a new graph.

 

[Forager]

Here's the map with the shattered window dots color coded by time. What do you make of it?

5:00 AM - 7:59 AM is light blue
8:00 AM - 10:59 AM is yellow;
11:00 AM - 1:59 PM is orange;
2:00 PM -4:59 PM is red
5:00 PM -7:59 PM is purple
8:00 PM - 4:59 AM is dark blue (none on screenshot)
Incidents with unknown times get a white circle with a black outline.

View attachment 100671

The things that strikes me about how the window shatterings spread by time of day is:
1) how many of them took place early in the day (from 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM - yellow and orange)
2) how all of the incidents that occurred later in the day were at the north and south extremes of the shooter's range.

Might that suggest that our hypothetical shatterer finds it more convenient to work in the middle of the north-south range. That's also where the shatterings started, and where the most recent one occurred.

 

[FindHG]

magz not related but still, wow

[video=youtube;prfzd4mJJMg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prfzd4mJJMg[/video]

 

[margarita25]

Colorado Springs police find chemical bottle bombs
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...s-police-find-chemical-bottle-bombs_83311649_

Sounds familiar...like Garden of the Gods last year?

"COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (AP) — Colorado Springs police say they found several chemical bottle bombs while responding to a report of shots being fired.

Police say several of the bombs went off Saturday night on Dublin Boulevard, near Cottonwood Creek Park.

Officers searched the area and found several unexploded bombs scattered in a parking lot."

 

[margarita25]

Highway shooting: Multiple shots fired, no injuries
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...way-shooting-multiple-shots-fired-no-injuries

"DENVER -- Denver police are investigating a highway shooting.

Officers were at 19th Street and Chestnut Place in downtown Denver investigating a person found in the roadway when suddenly, one block away at 19th and Wewatta Street, a vehicle drove up and the driver told Denver7 reporter Daryl Orr that shots had been fired on a nearby highway."

 

[FindHG]

Colorado Springs police find chemical bottle bombs
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...s-police-find-chemical-bottle-bombs_83311649_

Sounds familiar...like Garden of the Gods last year?

"COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (AP) — Colorado Springs police say they found several chemical bottle bombs while responding to a report of shots being fired.

Police say several of the bombs went off Saturday night on Dublin Boulevard, near Cottonwood Creek Park.

Officers searched the area and found several unexploded bombs scattered in a parking lot."

Magz, thank you for the Labor Day update. Will be mapped shortly.

In Denver: A black four door Lexus chasing a driver who sought shelter with the reporter, Mr. Orr, who was reporting on another story about a man laying in the street who may have fallen out of building, around 4 am.

Co Springs: chemical bottle bombs, more info Tuesday.


Sorry to ask, could you remind me of the Garden Gods from last year?

 

[margarita25]

rsbm
Sorry to ask, could you remind me of the Garden Gods from last year?

Here ya go, FHG:
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ado-Drivers-on-Edge-3&p=12100576#post12100576

 

[FindHG]

Here ya go, FHG:
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ado-Drivers-on-Edge-3&p=12100576#post12100576

Thank goodness you quoted it, magz. The links are as blank as my memory from then.

Wasn't there also an earlier shooting too, where a couple was chased and shot at, from an even earlier report from the GoG? We discussed it IIRC, around the time of Mr. John Jacoby's shooting.

 

[margarita25]

Thank goodness you quoted it, magz. The links are as blank as my memory from then.

Wasn't there also an earlier shooting too, where a couple was chased and shot at, from an even earlier report from the GoG? We discussed it IIRC, around the time of Mr. John Jacoby's shooting.

Yes. They were on a motorcycle.

 

[FindHG]

Yes. They were on a motorcycle.

:blushing: uh right, sorry.