Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

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sloane7777 said:
And there is about to be a very public memorial that's a one time event , I certainly hope we don't see a Staple Center outbreak people in China LOVE Kobe! I hope they stay put I don't trust self isolation, not when the stakes are so high
Click to expand...
I don’t trust self isolation either, back in 2009 our school system decided to close for a long weekend due to the H1N1 outbreak. Of course the idea was to contain the virus to decrease the spread.

hmmm - that Thursday/Friday saw a huge uptick of mall shoppers/restaurant business....

surprise!!! Subsequent increase in infections
 
Twitter. New York Times (@nytimes)


“Some coronavirus test kits distributed by the CDC are flawed, the agency announced. The failure will delay test results in the U.S. and abroad.”


I don’t have a subscription to the New York Times very unfortunately. But this is just hitting the news. If it’s true, I am not surprised! It would help explain why I’ve not been able to make sense of all of the “negative” tests on the planeloads of people coming in from China.

If someone has a NYT subscription and can recap the article I’d be so grateful.
 
MJPeony said:
Twitter. New York Times (@nytimes)


“Some coronavirus test kits distributed by the CDC are flawed, the agency announced. The failure will delay test results in the U.S. and abroad.”


I don’t have a subscription to the New York Times very unfortunately. But this is just hitting the news. If it’s true, I am not surprised! It would help explain why I’ve not been able to make sense of all of the “negative” tests on the planeloads of people coming in from China.

If someone has a NYT subscription and can recap the article I’d be so grateful.
Click to expand...

Oh, crap. Yeah, that would explain an awful lot! I've found it odd too. But if that's the case then I assume all these people with negative test results have been mingling freeing in the general population?
 
sloane7777 said:
And there is about to be a very public memorial that's a one time event , I certainly hope we don't see a Staple Center outbreak people in China LOVE Kobe! I hope they stay put I don't trust self isolation, not when the stakes are so high
Click to expand...

So far it’s been pretty quiet with regard to outbreaks around the world. I feel like if this was going to be massive then we would have millions of cases around the world by now. At least hundreds of thousands. And we don’t. And I do not believe for one moment that the WHO or every government around the world is hiding something. That would be an impossibility in this day and age.
 
Coronavirus test kits shipped from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to labs across the country and around the world last week have had problems detecting the virus, the CDC said Wednesday.

During a briefing with journalists, the CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier said some labs were getting “inconclusive” results from the test. As such, the test will need to be fixed.

The problem was found during initial routine run-throughs with the test to make sure it was working correctly before using it to diagnose COVID-19, as the illness is now called, in actual patients.

The issue with the diagnostic test has not been reported in all states. The Illinois Department of Public Health said Wednesday it had not experienced trouble with its test kits, and is able to move forward with testing for the coronavirus. It’s unclear how many of the test kits shipped were flawed.

All samples will also be tested at the CDC’s headquarters in Atlanta to confirm the results.

Coronavirus updates: Some test kits sent to states were flawed, CDC says
 
A small study suggests that the coronavirus cannot pass from a pregnant woman to an unborn child.

The question was raised after a newborn in China reportedly developed COVID-19, as the illness is now called, within 36 hours of birth, sparking concerns over whether the baby had been infected in utero or after birth.

Coronavirus updates: Some test kits sent to states were flawed, CDC says
 
Betty P said:
Probably not very long, weeks at most.
Click to expand...

That would be astounding if possible. I'm not sure how that would be done outside of a wizarding world focused entirely on renewing and revamping pharmaceutical and medical supply manufacturing in the US. It seems to take most companies weeks to even finalize the process of hiring employees. How long would it take to get the materials involved to manufacture ALL these items? Weeks to get approval that plants were all up to date. And they all just happen to be ready to manufacture exactly what we need in weeks "at most"? The US shut down it's last penicillin fermentation plant down nearly 20 years ago and that could be ready to go in no more than a matter of weeks?

Do we produce the basic materials to produce the others? The materials for syringes and masks? I mean would we have plants up and running that make those tiny plastic particles plus plants that make them into syringes? Or are we getting the tiny beads of plastic to make those items still from China or India? All items and aspects of the medications for antibiotics and antivirals in just weeks? All the building blocks of all these various medications? It seems to me that would be rather unprecedented.

Rosemary Gibson on America’s Dependence On China for Medicine - Corporate Crime Reporter
"You cite medical newsletters as saying that up to 80 percent of all pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China.

“That’s a common number that is thrown out there. It’s not just the ingredients. It’s also the chemical precursors, the chemical building blocks used to make the active ingredients. We are dependent on China for the chemical building blocks to make a whole category of antibiotics. It appears there is only one non-Chinese manufacturer of that building block. This is for a whole class of antibiotics known as cephalosporins. They are used in the United States thousands of times every day for people with very serious infections.”
 
MJPeony said:
BBM

So I don’t understand this: If they test the cruise ship passengers and let them leave the ship if they test negative- while some others on board are testing positive- there is no way to know if the “negative patients” were actually exposed to the virus from the ones testing positive. Could they not still just be in the incubation period?

If you have merely acquired the virus, do you immediately test positive? Or does “incubation period” only mean the time to symptoms?

Clearly the virus is making it’s way through the cruise ship, as more and more people are testing positive and becoming symptomatic. This “14 day quarantine” is smoke and mirrors as far as I can see based on the data. MOO.
Click to expand...

MJPeony, your quote above reminded me of this snipped from an article that @dotr posted.

““6) What does this cruise ship situation reveal about the larger outbreak?
Though the cruise ship situation is unfortunate, it could be helpful for understanding the new coronavirus. “It may shed light on the incubation period [for this disease], transmission dynamics, the clinical spectrum of illness,” said Bogoch.

Marion Koopmans, who studies emerging infectious diseases and heads the department of virology at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands, thinks we can learn a lot about how the disease spreads when we know exactly how the virus began spreading on the ship. “Cruise ships have these shows, several restaurants with joint dinners — so was there a close contact situation that involved a sick person with many people around him or her?” she wondered.

There’s also the question of how the quarantine worked: whether the passengers and crew would have acquired the new coronavirus with or without being forced to stay on the ship. “Are these truly new infections acquired after quarantine, or would these people have already acquired [the virus] and it’s just the regular incubation period?” Bogoch asked. Once we get answers to these questions, they might shed light on the larger outbreak.””

The coronavirus cruise ship quarantine is a scary public health experiment
-much more at link
 
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beatrixpotter said:
Oh, crap. Yeah, that would explain an awful lot! I've found it odd too. But if that's the case then I assume all these people with negative test results have been mingling freeing in the general population?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I don’t know. I’m trying not to be alarmist. It looks like the issue is that the tests come back “inconclusive”..... how that impacts “negative” results I’m not sure. Do they keep testing the inconclusive patients until they get a negative or a positive? And then they just trust the negative or positive result?

I don’t know. It’s strange. Either the test works or is doesn’t IMO.

(ETA: see Henry’s post above. Tests apparently not used on patients.)
 
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MJPeony said:
Yeah, I don’t know. I’m trying not to be alarmist. It looks like the issue is that the tests come back “inconclusive”..... how that impacts “negative” results I’m not sure. Do they keep testing the inconclusive patients until they get a negative or a positive? And then they just trust the negative or positive result?

I don’t know. It’s strange. Either the test works or is doesn’t IMO.
Click to expand...
They were not used on actual patients. See my post at #326.
 
beatrixpotter said:
That would be astounding if possible. I'm not sure how that would be done outside of a wizarding world focused entirely on renewing and revamping pharmaceutical and medical supply manufacturing in the US. It seems to take most companies weeks to even finalize the process of hiring employees. How long would it take to get the materials involved to manufacture ALL these items? Weeks to get approval that plants were all up to date. And they all just happen to be ready to manufacture exactly what we need in weeks "at most"? The US shut down it's last penicillin fermentation plant down nearly 20 years ago and that could be ready to go in no more than a matter of weeks?

Do we produce the basic materials to produce the others? The materials for syringes and masks? I mean would we have plants up and running that make those tiny plastic particles plus plants that make them into syringes? Or are we getting the tiny beads of plastic to make those items still from China or India? All items and aspects of the medications for antibiotics and antivirals in just weeks? All the building blocks of all these various medications? It seems to me that would be rather unprecedented.

Rosemary Gibson on America’s Dependence On China for Medicine - Corporate Crime Reporter
"You cite medical newsletters as saying that up to 80 percent of all pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China.

“That’s a common number that is thrown out there. It’s not just the ingredients. It’s also the chemical precursors, the chemical building blocks used to make the active ingredients. We are dependent on China for the chemical building blocks to make a whole category of antibiotics. It appears there is only one non-Chinese manufacturer of that building block. This is for a whole class of antibiotics known as cephalosporins. They are used in the United States thousands of times every day for people with very serious infections.”
Click to expand...

A lot of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment are still made in the US and it's territories (Puerto Rico)
Pharmaceutical industry in Puerto Rico - Wikipedia

They manufacture drugs for diabetes, cancer, heart disease, etc. They're also a major producer of IV bags (Baxter Labs). Their drug production capacity was diminished some after Hurricane Maria in 2018, but is back to former levels again.

Why so many medicines are in short supply months after Hurricane Maria

Some of the production down there declined over the years as it was shifted to countries like China, etc. for even lower prices. That production capacity can be restored, though.

Many of the medical grade plastics used to manufacture medical supplies like syringes, IV bags, etc. are made right here in the US.
 
Re: the official who inspected the ship and got infected, I think it was the ship at Yokohama, I had asked if his protective gear didn’t hold up. Well it seems on one of the endless YT videos I watched last night, they said he “wasn’t wearing full protective gear”, Moo. I’m not sure if this has been posted yet, but wanted to note. If it hasn’t been noted yet, then marking to find link.

Why on earth would you go on a cruise ship known to have infected persons and not wear full protective gear?

I saw a leader, not sure if it was in HK or China, that went in a hospital with a mask only to show his support. Moo. Maybe they put more gear on him when he was inside.

Also, did you all see the videos of the patients and staff dancing in order to show their positive attitude or high morale? (Paraphrasing) If that hasn’t been posted yet, I’ll find it. I apologize I’m still behind and hope to be caught up by this evening.

Everything is moo.
 
margarita25 said:
MJPeony, your quote above reminded me of this snipped from an article that @dotr posted.

““6) What does this cruise ship situation reveal about the larger outbreak?
Though the cruise ship situation is unfortunate, it could be helpful for understanding the new coronavirus. “It may shed light on the incubation period [for this disease], transmission dynamics, the clinical spectrum of illness,” said Bogoch.

Marion Koopmans, who studies emerging infectious diseases and heads the department of virology at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands, thinks we can learn a lot about how the disease spreads when we know exactly how the virus began spreading on the ship. “Cruise ships have these shows, several restaurants with joint dinners — so was there a close contact situation that involved a sick person with many people around him or her?” she wondered.

There’s also the question of how the quarantine worked: whether the passengers and crew would have acquired the new coronavirus with or without being forced to stay on the ship. “Are these truly new infections acquired after quarantine, or would these people have already acquired [the virus] and it’s just the regular incubation period?” Bogoch asked. Once we get answers to these questions, they might shed light on the larger outbreak.””

The coronavirus cruise ship quarantine is a scary public health experiment
-much more at link
Click to expand...

You also congregate in the theater area for daily off ship excursions.
 
galiuro1 said:
More coronavirus cases 'highly likely' in UK

Prof Ferguson added it was likely that only one in three cases coming into the UK was being picked up.

Why are the main news outlets dribbling out such feel good crap? Really, is it all about the money? That they simply don't know what to do next, so hey, just whistle into the wind?
Click to expand...

Outside of Hubei (and to an extent, China, too) things have to carry on as normal at the moment. Think of how bad it 'could' be, say with 20% of the population infected over a 4 month period that might come this summer or next winter or spring.

Now is the time for catching those occasional cases that come through, ensuring that the contact checking works. Work on a vaccine. Put plans into place at governmental and local level, and for businesses to plan how they'd manage if one or more of their workers was classified as a contact and asked to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

It's no good for the news outlets to make it seem like 'now' is the end of the world when the infections might reduce in the next few weeks. We don't know if the virus will come back with a vengeance in the winter. But we're definitely not at that point now.

So their programming 'should' reflect that. And yes, in some ways they do have a responsibility to dribble out feel good crap. You can't shut down the world for six months the way Wuhan's been virtually shut down...and even through their quarantine there have been workers who had to go to work. Money isn't just about profiteering, it's how we pay the rent and put bread on the table.

I admit to feeling a lack of confidence in our British government and its preparedness for the 'real thing' to hit in huge numbers. With the situation as it is, I think they're doing well and trying hard to get the balance right.
 
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