Just my opinion here, but the more I look at the data, I really do believe we’re dealing with at least two different strains - which is leading to a lot of uncertainty about what to expect. Italy is currently running at over 8% mortality rate. If true and accurate, it would be several million deaths in US if that’s the strain we’re dealing with.
Two strains would confuse all the data - they may have separate R0’s, different ways of transmission, present differently, different incubation periods, etc....
It would be an absolute nightmare for tracking and projection models.
I think they’re trying to untangle a big mess to see just where we do stand.
I’d also love to see any information that specifically states they have identified antibodies. If no antibodies present, then all recovered may still have the virus, but virus goes into remission.
Too many unknowns, and being fought based on too many ASSUMPTIONS!!
I also have to wonder what threshold is being used to determine acceptable collateral damage. Unfortunately, I believe the reality is that a fairly high percentage of deaths would have to be imminent in order for World Governments to willingly tank the world economy.
I truly believe the US would willingly absorb a certain percentage deaths in order to keep our economy going. I have no idea what that percentage would be, but I would think it would have to be pretty high. China would be even more willing to sacrifice human life for the economy.
With these considerations in mind, it’s still my opinion that there’s more to the story than meets the eye.
Thoughts???