Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #48

[cody22]

Happy Saturday morning to all.....Am I too late for a donut ?............moo

 

[Tigerlily75]

Australia

If someone can cross post to the Aussie thread for me, that would be awesome, I’m not that good at finding threads!!

Just curious as to what peeps think about this?

Australians will not be forced to download COVID-19 tracking app — 9news.com.au

Would you sign up? Do you think they’re tracking us anyway? I have to admit I’m not jumping on the App Store...but I rarely leave my house even when we’re not in iso so idk...

Yes I will. Pretty sure I sold my soul years ago to the internet Gods when I signed up to FB, Google etc, not to mention MyGov, Medicare, Centrelink, ATO etc etc. The government already knows where I live and where I work, so what nefarious things could they discover about my “movements”. Then, I’ll just delete it when it’s over.

 

[tresir2012]

Some of that info is in this Article.[the part about the bats being collected in cAves for the lab research, etc.]

Coronavirus & China: Origin in Wuhan Lab Unproven, But Denials Unconvincing | National Review

One of his last statements on the video is: “In the past ten-plus years, we have visited every corner of Hubei Province. We explored dozens of undeveloped caves and studied more than 300 types of virus vectors. But I do hope these virus samples will only be preserved for scientific research and will never be used in real life. Because humans need not only the vaccines, but also the protection from the nature.”

The description of Tian Junhua’s self-isolation came from a May 2017 report by Xinhua News Agency, repeated by the Chinese news site JQKNews.com:

The environment for collecting bat samples is extremely bad. There is a stench in the bat cave. Bats carry a large number of viruses in their bodies. If they are not careful, they are at risk of infection. But Tian Junhua is not afraid to go to the mountain with his wife to catch Batman.

Tian Junhua summed up the experience that the most bats can be caught by using the sky cannon and pulling the net. But in the process of operation, Tian Junhua forgot to take protective measures. Bat urine dripped on him like raindrops from the top. If he was infected, he could not find any medicine. It was written in the report.

The wings of bats carry sharp claws. When the big bats are caught by bat tools, they can easily spray blood. Several times bat blood was sprayed directly on Tians skin, but he didn’t flinch at all. After returning home, Tian Junhua took the initiative to isolate for half a month. As long as the incubation period of 14 days does not occur, he will be lucky to escape, the report said.

Bat urine and blood can carry viruses. How likely is it that bat urine or blood got onto a researcher at either Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention or the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Alternatively, what are the odds that some sort of medical waste or other material from the bats was not properly disposed of, and that was the initial transmission vector to a human being?

Thanks for that. I have also just found the original Nature article by "Batwoman" Zheng-Li Schi.

A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin

Here's a DM article from yesterday too.

Researchers at Wuhan virus lab warned of SARS-like coronavirus outbreaks in China last January | Daily Mail Online


Doughnut (s) for @cody22 and everyone

https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/doughnuts_89027

Doughnuts
11 ratings

Preparation time

1-2 hours

Cooking time

less than 10 mins

Serves

Makes 12

Dietary


Vegetarian

There's nothing quite like freshly cooked doughnuts - and you'll never be short of friends when you go to the trouble.

Shopping list

Ingredients

• 1 tbsp yeast
• 4 tbsp caster sugar
• 150ml/5¼fl oz milk, warmed
• 225g/8oz plain flour, plus extra for dusting
• ¼ tsp salt
• 50g/2oz butter, melted
• 1 free-range egg, beaten
• 300ml/10½fl oz vegetable oil, for deep-frying
• jam of your choice

How-to-videos
Method

1. Mix the yeast with half a teaspoon of the sugar and two tablespoons of the warm milk. Place in a warm place to rest for 15 minutes, or until frothy.
   
   
2. Sift the flour and salt into a large bowl. Stir in one tablespoon of the sugar.
   
   
3. Make a well in the flour and pour in the yeast mix, the rest of the milk, the melted butter and the egg. Mix to make a dough and then knead, cover the bowl and leave to stand for 45 minutes, or until the dough has doubled in size.
   
   
4. On a floured work surface, knead the dough for five minutes, then divide into 12 balls and place in a warm place for 30 minutes, or until they have doubled in size.
   
   
5. Heat the oil in a deep pan until it reaches 190C/375F, or a cube of bread dropped in sizzles and turns golden in 30 seconds. (CAUTION: hot oil can be dangerous. Do not leave unattended.)
   
   
6. Gently lower the dough balls one at a time into the hot oil, in batches of two or three, and fry for 3-5 minutes or until golden-brown, and then carefully turn over. Remove from the hot oil with a slotted spoon and drain on kitchen paper.
   
   
7. Roll the hot doughnuts in the remaining sugar. Make a small slit in the doughnut with the tip of a knife, and fill with a teaspoon of jam. Serve.

 

[Henry2326]

GEORGIA- .
-----------------------------------------------
PER JOSHUA WEITZ, GA TECH: It would not surprise me if population scale serology reveals that GA has somewhere between 150,000 to 450,000 cases, rather than the 17,000 cases we see now. There are many implications for hospitalization, fatalities, and planning.

And to add to clarion calls from many – widespread testing is needed not only to understand the prevalence of COVID19 but to stem the tide of future infection.
Joshua Weitz on Twitter

Just so it's clear, we have not "passed the peak" for COVID-19, such guidance is nonsensical and poses a genuine life/death threat.
Joshua Weitz on Twitter

 

[JaneEyre]

So I look at several forecast. This one Is just forecasting the curve.....which is really the key to the whole thing. More times than not, this one is showing a more realistic curve than the IHME. Also, you an drill down to a County and see the curve.

I saw an interview with the leader of the IHME. He recommended looking at several models. I will see if I can find it.

It says Illinois hasn’t reached its peak yet. The one I posted says we have. So it will be interesting to see, in May maybe, which one is right. Currently, I think we’ve reached our peak - unless we open stuff up, that is.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

One of the doctors in that video has an interesting theory.

Yes, that guy needs to listen to Dr. Sehultz with Medcram as he explains how it happens and agrees is not like HAPE, which is getting traction on social media, then picked up by MSM who doesn't understand. The University of Washington has heard the high altitude theories being bantered and came out with a statement to correct misconception of HAPE also. https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/ham.2020.0055

 

[KALI]

No donuts, but egg and green chili burritos are at my house, stop by anytime... ;-)

Happy Saturday morning to all.....Am I too late for a donut ?............moo

 

[Inthedetails]

Happy Saturday morning to all.....Am I too late for a donut ?............moo

I already ate a sticky bun.

jmo

 

[Henry2326]

It says Illinois hasn’t reached its peak yet. The one I posted says we have. So it will be interesting to see, in May maybe, which one is right. Currently, I think we’ve reached our peak - unless we open stuff up, that is.

Here is another one that I look at. It gives some ranges that gives a sense of what could happen in worse case of lack of social distancing.

COVID-19 Confirmed and Forecasted Case Data

 

[Henry2326]

NEXTSTRAIN

Thanks to #opendata sharing by the WHO National Influenza Centre Russian Federation & @GISAID, we’ve updated auspice with 33 new #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #hCoV19 sequences from Russia!
1/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Most of the Russian sequences fall within European clusters. 16 of the sequences form a large cluster within a European group (left image).
2/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

One of the Russian samples is isolated within a large USA cluster.
3/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Round and round we go....

 

[tresir2012]

Thank you Nuttmegg. I do like the articles from Business Insider. The image brings up a question however? I see many international photographs where they are spraying so much. Are we doing that in the US? Besides closed up factories and plants?

In some places they are actually spraying people as well. I read an article about tourists being sprayed after being let out of a hostel to fly out of the country. I'll find the link.

It was Peru.

US evacuees sprayed with unknown chemicals by Peruvian authorities during coronavirus quarantine

 

[SA55]

I had to have my old cat euthanized this past week. For the most part, the vet's office handled things well under the circumstances. They are making people wait in their car with their pet until an exam room is free then they call you on your cell phone. I was offered a mask and gloves at the entrance. The vet tech and the vet wore masks as well. The person who greeted me at the door (they keep it locked) and walked me to the back did not, which irked me a little.

The tech put in a really long IV line so the vet didn't have to get close to me or my cat to do the injections. I was in and out really quickly.

Virtual hugs to you
I can't imagine
Having my 4 legged babies euthanized are very traumatic to me under the best of times

 

[cody22]

Thanks for that. I have also just found the original Nature article by "Batwoman" Zheng-Li Schi.

A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin

Here's a DM article from yesterday too.

Researchers at Wuhan virus lab warned of SARS-like coronavirus outbreaks in China last January | Daily Mail Online


Doughnut (s) for @cody22 and everyone

https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/doughnuts_89027

Doughnuts
11 ratings

Preparation time

1-2 hours

Cooking time

less than 10 mins

Serves

Makes 12

Dietary


Vegetarian

There's nothing quite like freshly cooked doughnuts - and you'll never be short of friends when you go to the trouble.

Shopping list

Ingredients

• 1 tbsp yeast
• 4 tbsp caster sugar
• 150ml/5¼fl oz milk, warmed
• 225g/8oz plain flour, plus extra for dusting
• ¼ tsp salt
• 50g/2oz butter, melted
• 1 free-range egg, beaten
• 300ml/10½fl oz vegetable oil, for deep-frying
• jam of your choice

How-to-videos
Method

1. Mix the yeast with half a teaspoon of the sugar and two tablespoons of the warm milk. Place in a warm place to rest for 15 minutes, or until frothy.
   
   
2. Sift the flour and salt into a large bowl. Stir in one tablespoon of the sugar.
   
   
3. Make a well in the flour and pour in the yeast mix, the rest of the milk, the melted butter and the egg. Mix to make a dough and then knead, cover the bowl and leave to stand for 45 minutes, or until the dough has doubled in size.
   
   
4. On a floured work surface, knead the dough for five minutes, then divide into 12 balls and place in a warm place for 30 minutes, or until they have doubled in size.
   
   
5. Heat the oil in a deep pan until it reaches 190C/375F, or a cube of bread dropped in sizzles and turns golden in 30 seconds. (CAUTION: hot oil can be dangerous. Do not leave unattended.)
   
   
6. Gently lower the dough balls one at a time into the hot oil, in batches of two or three, and fry for 3-5 minutes or until golden-brown, and then carefully turn over. Remove from the hot oil with a slotted spoon and drain on kitchen paper.
   
   
7. Roll the hot doughnuts in the remaining sugar. Make a small slit in the doughnut with the tip of a knife, and fill with a teaspoon of jam. Serve.

tresir, Thank you to you and everyone else for the donuts, burritos,and sticky buns ........onefingertypingwithmymouthfullmulti-taskingcody22......moo

 

[Sundog]

I had to have my old cat euthanized this past week. For the most part, the vet's office handled things well under the circumstances. They are making people wait in their car with their pet until an exam room is free then they call you on your cell phone. I was offered a mask and gloves at the entrance. The vet tech and the vet wore masks as well. The person who greeted me at the door (they keep it locked) and walked me to the back did not, which irked me a little.

The tech put in a really long IV line so the vet didn't have to get close to me or my cat to do the injections. I was in and out really quickly.

I am so sorry about your cat.

 

[Sundog]

Shortage of CO2 for beer, soda and seltzer water.

Beer may lose its fizz as CO2 supplies go flat during pandemic

 

[shotgun09]

NEXTSTRAIN

Thanks to #opendata sharing by the WHO National Influenza Centre Russian Federation & @GISAID, we’ve updated auspice with 33 new #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #hCoV19 sequences from Russia!
1/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Most of the Russian sequences fall within European clusters. 16 of the sequences form a large cluster within a European group (left image).

2/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

One of the Russian samples is isolated within a large USA cluster.
3/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Round and round we go....

NEXTSTRAIN

Thanks to #opendata sharing by the WHO National Influenza Centre Russian Federation & @GISAID, we’ve updated auspice with 33 new #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #hCoV19 sequences from Russia!
1/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Most of the Russian sequences fall within European clusters. 16 of the sequences form a large cluster within a European group (left image).
2/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

One of the Russian samples is isolated within a large USA cluster.
3/3 Nextstrain on Twitter

Round and round we go....

Thank you for the information! But, what is the alarm here, with the bold and underlined? I don't understand this! TIA

 

[Henry2326]

Thank you for the information! But, what is the alarm here, with the bold and underlined? I don't understand this! TIA

It's not an alarm...just easily noting it's for Russia.

 

[Sundog]

That is brilliant info with all the sources linked. Copy pasta below.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
Last updated: April 16, 5:00 GMT
"COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads" according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [source]

In general, respiratory virus infection can occur through: [source]

• contact (direct or indirect)
• droplet spray in short range transmission
• aerosol in long-range transmission (airborne transmission)

Close Contact (6 feet, 1.8 meters) and Respiratory Droplets
"The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
• Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks" [source]

This idea, that large droplets of virus-laden mucus are the primary mode of transmission, guides the US CDC's advice to maintain at least a 6-foot distance: "Maintaining good social distance (about 6 feet) is very important in preventing the spread of COVID-19" [source]

Is 6 feet enough?
Some experts contacted by LiveScience think that 6 feet (1.8 meters) is not enough [source]

Air Currents
"Larger respiratory droplets (>5 μm) remain in the air for only a short time and travel only short distances, generally <1 m" (less than 3.3 feet) [source] [source] [source]

"Virus-laden small (<5 μm) aerosolized droplets can remain in the air and travel long distances, >1 m" (more than 3.3 feet) [source] [source]

A study of transmission occurring in a restaurant between people at a distance above 1 meter, observed that "strong airflow from the air conditioner could have propagated droplets" [source]

Humidity (best if between 50% and 80%)
"It is assumed that temperature and humidity modulate the viability of viruses by affecting the properties of viral surface proteins and lipid membrane" [source] Relative humidity (RH, or Saturation Ratio: the state of vapor equilibrium in room air) affects all infectious droplets with respiratory viruses, independent of their source(respiratory tract or aerosolized from any fluid) andlocation (in air or settled on surfaces). Relative humidity therefore affects all transmission ways but has the most pronounced effect on airborne transmission. [source]

"Measurements of indoor humidities in 40 residential apartments in New York (19) and in 6 high-quality commercial buildings in the Midwest (20) showed indoor vapor pressure of below 10 mb or indoor RH of below 24% in the winter" [source]

Experiments conducted in a study indicated "astriking correlation of the stability of winter viruses at low RH (20–50%), while the stability of summer or all-year viruses enhanced at higher RH (80%)" [source]

Airborne Transmission
The WHO states that "Respiratory infections can be transmitted through droplets of different sizes: when the droplet particles are >5-10 μm in diameter they are referred to as respiratory droplets, and when they are <5μm in diameter, they are referred to as droplet nuclei. According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes" [source]

The WHO defines airborne transmission as "the spread of an infectious agent caused by the dissemination of droplet nuclei that remain infectious when suspended in air over long distances and time" [source]

Air Distance: up to 4 meters (13 feet) might be possible (in hospitals)
"The maximum transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol might be 4 m" (13.1 feet), according to a study published on April 10 on Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal of the US CDC which also found that "SARS-CoV-2 was widely distributed in the air and on object surfaces in both the ICU and general ward (GW), implying a potentially high infection risk for medical staff and other close contacts" [source]

This is true in a hospital setting and doesn't necessarily apply to other settings. The WHO says that "in the context of COVID-19, airborne transmission may be possible in specific circumstances and settings in which procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are performed; i.e., endotracheal intubation, bronchoscopy, open suctioning, administration of nebulized treatment, manual ventilation before intubation, turning the patient to the prone position, disconnecting the patient from the ventilator, non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation, tracheostomy, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation" [source]

And concludes that "further studies are needed to determine whether it is possible to detect COVID-19 virus in air samples from patient rooms where no procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are ongoing" [source]

Air Duration: up to 3 hours (but not in normal conditions, according to WHO)
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours" found a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine on March 17 [source]

The WHO notes that these findings need to be interpreted carefully: "in this experimental study, aerosols were generated using a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum under controlled laboratory conditions. This is a high-powered machine that does not reflect normal human cough conditions. Further, the finding of COVID-19 virus in aerosol particles up to 3 hours does not reflect a clinical setting in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed - that is, this was an experimentally induced aerosol-generating procedure" [source]

Objects and Surfaces
The virus could spread by touching an object or surface with virus present from an infected person, and then touching the mouth, nose or eyes.

Surface contamination as observed in the study cited above [source]:

• Computer mouse (ICU 6/8, 75%; GW 1/5, 20%)
• Trash cans (ICU 3/5, 60%; GW 0/8)
• Sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14, 42.9%; GW 0/12)
• Doorknobs (GW 1/12, 8.3%)

76.5% of all personal items sampled at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) were determined to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 [source]

Of these samples, 81.3% of the miscellaneous personal items were positive by PCR, which included:

• Exercise equipment
• Medical equipment (spirometer, pulse oximeter, nasal cannula)
• PC and iPads
• Reading glasses
  
  Other findings:
  
  
• Cellular phones (83.3% positive for viral RNA)
• Remote controls for in-room TVs (64.7% percent positive)
• Toilets (81.0% positive)
• Room surfaces (80.4% of all sampled)
• Bedside tables and bed rails (75.0%)
• Window ledges (81.8%)

Duration of contamination on objects and surfaces
Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:

• Plastic: up to 2-3 days
• Stainless Steel: up to 2-3 days
• Cardboard: up to 1 day
• Copper: up to 4 hours

[source]

Floor
"The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10, 70%; GW 2/13, 15.4%), perhaps because of gravity and air flow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground.

In addition, as medical staff walk around the ward, the virus can be tracked all over the floor, as indicated by the 100% rate of positivity from the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

Furthermore, half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive. Therefore, the soles of medical staff shoes might function as carriers. The 3 weak positive results from the floor of dressing room 4 might also arise from these carriers. We highly recommend that persons disinfect shoe soles before walking out of wards containing COVID-19 patients." [source]

Thanks for posting this again, it is good to continue to get this message out. I know that some of these studies were done in a hospital setting that treats COVID-19 patients, but still was struck by the everyday items that they found were infected with the virus: eyeglasses, computer mouse, cell phone, shoes. Higher viral load in hospitals, but good advice for all to be vigilant.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Dr's are starting to use nasal cannulas, CPAP and BIPAP machines.

Virus victims develop a mucousy-yellow gunk in their lungs that prevents oxygen from transferring to the blood. Forcing more air into their lungs with a ventilator, doesn’t help that process, it just damages the lungs.

The branches are your bronchi and at the end of each small branch are leaves — clusters of 600 million tiny microscopic sacs, called alveoli. That’s where oxygen and carbon dioxide are exchanged.

During the immune overreaction, called a “cytokine storm,” the alveoli drown in a gummy yellow fluid.

When those air sacs become clogged, the lungs stiffen up. Oxygen levels in the patient dramatically fall, and the heart struggles to function properly. A ventilator can help, but only so much. Said one doctor who’s treating COVID-19 patients on ventilators:

He says these patients with more normal-looking lungs, but low blood oxygen, may also be especially vulnerable to ventilator-associated lung injury, where pressure from the air that’s being forced into the lungs damages the thin air sacs that exchange oxygen with the blood.

“Because U.S. data on treating Covid-19 patients are nearly nonexistent, health care workers are flying blind when it comes to caring for such confounding patients.

"Doctors are making their decisions based on “blood oxygen levels”, but blood oxygen levels might signal the need for a different treatment for coronavirus patients than they do for pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients. In other words, one size does not fit all. The problem is that too many people are ending up on ventilators when ventilators are undermining their chances for survival.

But in a subset of patients, for reasons unknown, things go horribly awry during the second week of illness. Even though levels of virus fall, the immune system goes into dangerous overdrive, flooding the lungs with inflammatory cells. In these people, it’s their body’s response, rather than the virus, that’s lethal.

This is often when people will deteriorate and become much more ill and end up in the ICU,” said infectious disease expert Dr. Annie Luetkemeyer, associate professor of medicine at UC San Francisco.
Patients struggle for air. Oxygen levels plummet. Blood pressure drops. Kidneys fail. The heart stops.

But anecdotally, Weingart said,We’ve had a number of people who improved and got off CPAP or high flow [nasal cannulas] who would have been tubed 100 out of 100 times in the past.” What he calls “this knee-jerk response” of putting people on ventilators if their blood oxygen levels remain low with noninvasive devices “is really bad. … I think these patients do much, much worse on the ventilator.”

Even as hospitals and governors raise the alarm about a shortage of ventilators, some critical care physicians are questioning the widespread use of the breathing machines for Covid-19 patients, saying that large numbers of patients could instead be treated with less intensive respiratory support.

Ventilators are overused for Covid-19 patients, doctors say - STAT

Doctors Puzzle Over COVID-19 Lung Problems

Are Ventilators Killing More People Than They're Saving?? - Global Research

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly

Great articles. Thank you. I know what I would tell doctors ahead, if i ended up in the hospital/icu.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: 888 more people die with COVID-19 in UK, taking total above 15,000

Another 888 patients have died in hospitals in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus.

The Department of Health announced the latest increase which takes the total death toll from COVID-19 to 15,464, the fifth highest in the world from the virus which originated in China late last year.

Some 150,000 people have died worldwide.

The number of tests for the illness has risen to 460,437, although this includes some people being tested more than once.

There have now been 114,217 positive tests in the UK.

According to each home nation's health authorities, the number of deaths in hospitals now stands at:

• England - 13,918
• Scotland - 893
• Wales - 534
• Northern Ireland - 193