Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #49

[dixiegirl1035]

NORTH DAKOTA

RX is the highest of all states at 1.7, and was at 1.75 on March 22nd.
Positivity rate is 3.4 (very good)....below 5.
Tests per 1000 people is 15.4....needs to be 50.
Cases have not flattened but very low deaths (10).
Unfortunately, I think they are poised for an increase in cases...IMO.

It will be interesting to see what officials do in the next couple of weeks.


rt.live

No plan in sight: Test troubles cloud Trump recovery effort

Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

I think the guantlet has been thrown down. Most states have been testing priority folks, so the percentage of positives are high. The only way to get it down is to test more of the community to get the positive % rates down. It's a quagmire for sure without testing. Heck, implement a testing regime that has only a 50% sensitivity rate for a couple of weeks and voila... you have your decrease. Pffft... not true but just how it could be done. As I learned long ago as far as statistics... tell me what you want, and I'll run a scenario to prove it.

Scares me how folks can do a work around..

 

[tresir2012]

42 million people visited LosVegas last year. The problem isn't the folks that live there.....IMO

So they visit, catch it and take it back to their own state you think? Or what? That's not many deaths at all. Wales UK population is 3 million with 575 deaths.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

@musicaljoke - David Fishman, who I noted, is the Professor of Infectious disease st University of Toronto. It's his chart. He's quite competent to do the calculations.

David Fisman on Twitter

Thanks! You are so invaluable as up on all the science, kudos!

 

[ilovewings]

Yeah, and I think that is what many scientists also thought. And said to their leaders as perhaps was something like SARS or MERS.

That it was like SARS/MERS and took steps accordingly as was successful in the past and would not spread as it has (I think everyone on this thread knows the outcome of those two... died down and not international pandemic for long) ..

until it did... and then it was OH CHIT moment for the entire world.

Many had the prompting from science that it could be more than MERS or SARS... but no one knew... until it was... much more

.....Some got the "oh chit" moment before others.

Pull up bootstraps... and work together. And help those who are in need, especially those who are close to us... friends/neighbors etc.

Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?

Very informative article!!!!!

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I have some family members in Michigan and I was really concerned when I read about all these restrictions placed on buying garden seeds and gardening supplies. My relatives are retired and have always had a large backyard garden each summer (both vegetables and flowers). I called them yesterday and offered to mail some seeds so they could plant despite the restrictions. To my great relief, they told me that they can still buy garden seeds and garden plants and I didn't need to send anything. The restriction is ONLY on buying those things at the big box stores like Walmart and Home Depot. Apparently the rule is based on the physical size of the store. They can get all their seeds and plants and other supplies from smaller garden centers. And they told me they got almost everything they will need already. My relatives main concern with the restrictions were that the rules made the small garden centers more crowded and meant they had to increase their risk by shopping at more than one store. They wore masks and gloves but it was impossible to social distance in one of the smaller stores. The other small local garden center was placing restrictions on the number of people allowed in at once. That was good for social distancing inside but it led to long lines outside and a full parking lot. I'm glad that the small garden centers will likely be able to stay in business but I worry a little that they might not be able to handle all the additional people who are suddenly wanting to start gardening. Hopefully this ban is only a temporary situation. I wouldn't like those rules at all.

MOO.

Thank you so very much for this "on the ground" factual understanding. I have felt the criticism of this, from people who don't really know Michigan, were just...well... just over the top. Thank you. Thank you

 

[dixiegirl1035]

NEVADA

Wynn Resorts Chief Executive Officer Matt Maddox on Sunday called on the Nevada governor to begin to reopen the Las Vegas Strip in mid- to late May with extensive safety measures in place, assuming the state is in line with certain benchmarks around the spread of the coronavirus.
Wynn Resorts CEO calls for Las Vegas Strip to conditionally reopen in mid- to late May

Rx is 1.0
Positivity rate is 11.7....needs to be 5.0
Tests per 1000 people is 9.4....needs to 50.
Neither cases or deaths appear to be flattened.
IMO....this governor would be nuts to fill up casinos and hotels until testing is in place, which it's not yet.....but nuttier things have and will happen.

https://rt.live/
No plan in sight: Test troubles cloud Trump recovery effort
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say
COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

Also, R0 is usually for one place,,, that is NOT like Vegas where so many folks fly in from all over the US. Their modelling is probably more iffy than anywhere as it is not dependent on their population.

MOO.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

RSBM Is there a country anywhere that is doing well in this regard?

Many point to South Korea?

 

[10ofRods]

Regarding "Spo0ns" (as it is called by many in UK newspaper comments). Wetherspoons. Where to begin.

Wetherspoons owner vows to keep pubs open during CoVid Crisis (after the government said to shut them down):

Wetherspoon vows to keep pubs open during coronavirus crisis | Metro News

Wetherspoons owner becomes an expert on pandemics:

JD Wetherspoon boss says closing UK pubs will not stop coronavirus

Then of course, people rallied around him and others with the same views- and are defying social distancing in general as you can see in this picture:

Clap for carers: UK pays tribute to NHS and key workers

There are many other pictures. Every major bridge in London had unmasked people on them, clapping at whatever time it was supposed to be. Organized by Tim Martin (Spoons owner) and his friends, IMO.

Meanwhile, UK is already at nearly 16,o00 dead (mainly in England, hardly any Scotland). And it is way earlier in the process than Italy.

UK is at the bottom of Europe's list for testing:

https://i.redd.it/0ynuq02lott41.png

You can see where UK stands in terms of its relationship to its first cases here:

https://i.redd.it/3ug523gpskt41.png

Many pub owners followed Spoons and stayed open. I hear that some are still open. This would help account for why 16,000 people have died since March 16. Germany, which had its first reported deaths on March 20, sits at only 45,000. Its population density is greater than UK's and they have about the same number of people.

UK is only 50% bigger than California, population wise and has similar pattern of high and low density areas. Almost 16,000 dead in one month, California reported its first deaths a bit earlier - and we sit at just over 1000.

Then, Tim Martin (Wetherspoons owner) did shut down when it got back and abandoned his employees.

JD Wetherspoon denies ‘abandoning’ staff in coronavirus crisis

Then he walked that back and may or may not be paying some of them. As people build CoVid boycott lists, Wetherspoons is at the top of many Brit's list:

Flop of the Month: Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin sends wrong messages

What Tim and his Spoons companions don't realize, is that they are just prolonging the shutdown (just like the people in Huntington Beach - where, interestingly, people are also resisting getting the homeless into monitored and structured settings). Just like those people in Michigan. They want what they want, but they're only pushing back the date for reopening:

 

[Tony1902]

Bio-dynamic gardeners like myself only grow sustainable, non GMO seeds, usually heirloom. My peppers are Fontenot from St Landry parish in Louisiana. You’ll only find heirlooms in the seed growers I’ve noted, along with many others that all veg gardeners know. That being said, SAVING those seeds are specific to freak gardeners like myself & others. Zero ability to order last month. That really scared me.

 

[10ofRods]

Neighbors walking by an infamous Brooklyn funeral home this week were shocked by the sight of bagged bodies piled outside, unrefrigerated and in full view.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/dead-...g6m9gfkFqjmyxkG87fJEFL6-9Q1YcrMXhspvu-C99ZlH8

Yep - and that's what the people in the more rural parts of the nation aren't seeing. Of course...we probably need to get granular in how we do things.

OTOH, isn't South Dakota having issues? And the jury is out on Texas.

Oddly, I also got a rude response from my primary care doctor - wassup with that? I'm being nice to my students, for gosh sakes. (Srsly, you guys help me SO MUCH with that, you have no idea).

 

[10ofRods]

Bio-dynamic gardeners like myself only grow sustainable, non GMO seeds, usually heirloom. My peppers are Fontenot from St Landry parish in Louisiana. You’ll only find heirlooms in the seed growers I’ve noted, along with many others that all veg gardeners know. That being said, SAVING those seeds are specific to freak gardeners like myself & others. Zero ability to order last month. That really scared me.

Um...hi! Can I come over?

No, I wouldn't take your seeds until I get better with the Italian (heirloom) seeds that I have. I do not have a green thumb.

What's your opinion on how long seeds are okay while still in their wrapping?

 

[musicaljoke]

Many point to South Korea?

Yes, DH mentioned that to me as well. I'll try to find out more about how they manage things. Do we have anyone onboard from South Korea who could tell us how they keep their seniors safe?

 

[RANCH]

I keep hearing that we need testing of all workers before opening up the economy. If the US had around 130 million full time workers before the pandemic, what is the logistics for testing all of those people?

How long will it take to set up? How long will it take to complete? If we include part time workers what effect would that have on the timeline?

This would have to be an ongoing test that workers would have to take on a regular basis right? Otherwise the infection could spread again.

Seems to be a very difficult task. JMO

U.S.: Number of full-time workers 1990-2018 | Statista

 

[Henry2326]

GOODLETTSVILLE, Tenn. — Nearly 100 employees at a Tyson chicken plant in Tennessee have tested positive for the coronavirus.
Workers will be required to take their temperatures at the start of their shifts and wear face coverings.

“We’re extremely grateful for the work our team members are doing and for the role they play in the critical supply chain that extends from farm to fork,” Tyson Foods Senior Vice President Hector Gonzalez told CNN.

The company has expanded workspaces and is sanitizing and deep-cleaning plant production areas, as well as employee locker and break rooms.

Officials in Iowa have asked Tyson Fresh Meats to close its Waterloo pork processing plant amid concerns of spreading the coronavirus, The Associated Press reported.

A facility in Columbus Junction where at least 148 employees were infected and two died, has been closed since April 6. The company hoped to reopen it this week.

Coronavirus: Nearly 100 Tyson chicken workers test positive for virus

 

[musicaljoke]

Um...hi! Can I come over?

No, I wouldn't take your seeds until I get better with the Italian (heirloom) seeds that I have. I do not have a green thumb.

What's your opinion on how long seeds are okay while still in their wrapping?

There is an expiry date on the pkg. Some seeds last for a couple of years, and some are good for the current year only.

 

[MajorHoople]

Here's a list from Worldometers on the per capita death rate as it stands now.

Although the US has the most deaths, the per capita death rate is no where near the highest. Here are the top 15 countries.

San Marino = 1,149

Belgium = 490

Andorra = 490

Spain = 437

Italy = 391

France = 302

United Kingdom = 237

Sint Maarten = 233

Netherlands = 215

Switzerland = 161

Sweden = 152

Ireland = 124

United States = 122

Channel Islands = 121

Luxembourg = 117

Note: Worldometers has an useful feature. You can make any column in the chart the active column merely by clicking on it. In this example click on the "Deaths/ 1M pop" column.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I don't get vaccines but I will get the vaccine for this horrible disease. The benefit far outweighs the risks.

This is a general question, not necessarily to OP above.

This is a most interesting statement to me, and I've always wondered where the line lays with anti vacs folks/folks who don't get vaccines (although I thought was required by law such as Diphtheria and whooping cough (pertussis) (DTaP) Polio (IPV) Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) Chickenpox (varicella)???) ...and perhaps @margarita25 does also as she has done a thread on another disease where folks die because others don't get a vaccine for what is a horrible disease for others.

Question I ask to all who state "I don't get vaccines" -

Did you (general "you", not you as OP) not get the flu vaccine/measles vaccine and others required by law before to protect yourself from sickness knowing that you can get it and be fine, yet transmit to others and they die? (as in @margarita25 thread on another disease she has posted much on)

Are folks planning on getting COVID vaccine for yourself, or are you even considering getting it for herd immunity and loved ones to protect others who are more vulnerable?

 

[tresir2012]

Here's a list from Worldometers on the per capita death rate as it stands now.

Although the US has the most deaths, the per capita death rate is no where near the highest. Here are the top 15 countries.

San Marino = 1,149

Belgium = 490

Andorra = 490

Spain = 437

Italy = 391

France = 302

United Kingdom = 237

Sint Maarten = 233

Netherlands = 215

Switzerland = 161

Sweden = 152

Ireland = 124

United States = 122

Channel Islands = 121

Luxembourg = 117

Note: Worldometers has an useful feature. You can make any column in the chart the active column merely by clicking on it. In this example click on the "Deaths/ 1M pop" column.

Yes I find that feature useful too. I am watching Belgium. That is strange and I wonder if it could be due to population density like NY and NJ?

 

[Tony1902]

Um...hi! Can I come over?

No, I wouldn't take your seeds until I get better with the Italian (heirloom) seeds that I have. I do not have a green thumb.

What's your opinion on how long seeds are okay while still in their wrapping?

I also used to order Italian seeds from a grower in Italy. Still looking for those cherry tomato seeds from Sicily.

If you keep them in a refrig that’s between 60-50 I think it’s ok. After Katrina we lost the real Creole seeds because electricity went out & seeds rotted. Depends upon where you live & how old the seeds are. I’d try it anyway—what’s there to lose? I’m in coastal USDA climate zone 9. Well in July it feels like the zone is in hell.

 

[margarita25]

“Spain on Sunday recorded its lowest daily increase in the coronavirus death toll in nearly a month – a day after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced he’d allow children to venture outdoors for the first time since the country went into lockdown in mid-March.

The Spanish health ministry recorded at least 410 coronavirus-related deaths within the past 24-hours, marking the lowest daily increase in deaths since March 22, according to the Associated Press.

In total, Spain has recorded 20,453 deaths and 195,944 confirmed cases by Sunday.”

[...]

“Spanish children will be able to leave their homes to "get some fresh air" beginning April 27, Sánchez said Saturday, adding that Spain has left behind "the most extreme moments and contained the brutal onslaught of the pandemic,” the BBC reported.”

[...]

“Under the harshest lockdown measures in Europe, children, however, have not been allowed to even accompany parents on daily walks, according to the New York Times, raising concerns from the Spanish Children's Rights Coalition and regional authorities about potential lasting effects on their mental and physical health.”

[...]

"These little heroes are climbing the walls," Opposition leader Pablo Casado tweeted. Spain’s 8 million children have not been permitted to leave their homes for five weeks.”

Spain sees fewest daily deaths in nearly a month as government to relax quarantine restrictions for kids