Good morning, everyone! (At least, it's morning for me).
There's some good news on the CoVid research front. While that Stanford study showed that about 3% of people they studied had the antibodies to CoVid, a study in San Francisco (UCSF) that was much broader in terms of population, showed that about 30% of people had the antibodies. The differences in the two studies can be explained due to the two different populations (one suburban, in occupations where social distancing was built in, self-selected and more concerned about CoVid, etc).
Studies from New York are showing similar antibody rates (maybe as high as 40%). This is extremely good news and it means that when we can all get Ab testing, many of us will get good news.
Another fascinating set of research papers ( peer reviewed ) are causing a re-think of how this particular CoVid is killing people. The research seems to show that it acts in a manner to damage blood vessels, in a complex manner that causes microthrombosis, usually in the lungs first. This explains the foot rashes that some have experienced and apparently the multi-organ damage. CoVid-19 may disable the walls of blood vessels from expanding and contracting to push blood through the body, leading to coagulation of the blood in the small vessels first (thrombosis). These studies are based on increased autopsy data, but also a lot of other study.
I cannot understand every detail of these two articles, although most nurses can get most of what they're saying. Most doctors need to be specialists in this field to understand all of it, but these papers left me in awe as to how much doctors need to know to even get a vague handle on this disease:
https://www.esicm.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/902_author_proof.pdf
(peer reviewed, not juried yet)
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1164/rccm.202003-0817LE
(peer reviewed, juried)
First is based on NY data, second on Italy's experience. Interdisciplinary authors, international work. It's very promising. The conclusion is that ventilators should be used only as a last resort, and that anticoagulant therapy is indicated in many hospitalized patients (there's a test they can give prior to administering these drugs to see if they are relatively safe for the patient). I did see that some patients are now getting anticoagulants for CoVid-19.
Two more studies on the hydrochloroquin (Paquinel?) show it doesn't work. (Not surprising, it's built to kill an entirely different kind of organism).
And as to curves and models - algorithms have to be constantly revised. IMHE model never intended to predict past August - so if there are 65,000 Americans dead by August, that's an incredible number, and we haven't even started into season 2 of this. If we look at the various Ab data, it's possible that 15-20% of us may have antibodies by August (let's pray it is higher, but many people live away from hot spots). That means that 80% of us will once again be vulnerable next winter (there's increasing evidence that hot weather kills the virus quickly outdoors, which should surely help and should guide what kinds of places open first - outdoor venues, daytime games, etc - no indoor sports!) It's entirely possible that we will see 40,000 people die next year if we don't find better treatment or a vaccine. Vaccine experts are cautiously optimistic.
By "hot weather" the studies I read meant above 90F. Also, there are conflicting data about humidity. Heat from sunlight combined with other factors outdoors seem to inhibit it (you can't just kill it with 90F heat, although oddly, it would seem to slow its rate of reproduction and thereby lower the amount of viral load).
One last thing: a major possible vector comes from a study of heating/AC ducts in the San Francisco area. Only one restaurant studied, but its vents were rife with Coronavirus. The system was being used for air circulation, not heating. Further studies needed, but it does show a possible vector for many nursing homes...
