Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #49

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imstilla.grandma said:
UW expert: Achieving herd immunity for coronavirus a 'disastrous strategy'

Without a vaccine for coronavirus, could herd immunity ultimately be what protects the population in the days ahead? According to one University of Washington professor, we should be skeptical of any such approach.

Understanding how researchers are predicting spread of coronavirus

UW biology professor Carl Bergstrom points a handful of factors that not only indicate herd immunity isn’t a viable solution, but also potentially a “disastrous” method of quelling the spread of the virus.

“Given the uncertainties we face around the degree and duration of acquired immunity, it is not even clear that one could reach herd immunity for (COVID-19),” he said on Twitter. “But even if one could, the cost in lives would be unacceptable.”[/QUOTE--


Put simply-- Herd immunity is stupid!!
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imstilla.grandma said:
They don’t make the old chow chow like my grandma used to. At least, it’s not sold in any stores I’ve ever been able to find. It’s a must for pinto beans, fried taters, jalapeño cornbread and corn on the cob. Memories...
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Oh, the memory of grandma's chow chow! I'd get a second helping of bean just to have more chow chow!
 
“Clearly this is something that this is hurting …. but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen.” — NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci on protests against stay-at-home orders.

Dr. Fauci, push to re-open US, explains antibody testing- what they show and what they can't show

video (6 minutes)
Good Morning America on Twitter
 
nhmemorymaker said:
There was an article about Sweden a few threads back. Made me really want to keep up with Sweden over the long haul to see how their more open approach works.
One of the statistics in that article still has me curious, and am hoping someone can address. The statement said "over 40% of the population lives alone". I can see how this does, in fact, influence lower infection rates. But how does Swedish culture explain this. Minimal multi-generational families? Divorce? Low birth rates? Knowledge welcome.
Click to expand...

Good question! That would be one for our member in Sweden @FrostOwl .
 
Trino said:
Life on the fringes...
New normals. Silly questions. Maybe.

What will happen to NV brothels?
Will Dancing With the Stars go away?
Will movies only show social distancing?
How will airline pilots and co-pilots do social distancing?
Will drinking fountains be only for dogs?
How will Revolutionary War and Civil War reenactments take place?
And, most important, will July 4 be September 4?
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Starting to make alternate plans for Thanksgiving 2020. We were planning a reunion. Now we're working on getting old family photos together and preparing for a virtual reunion. My brother is organizing it.
 
Lilibet said:
I think this plan below is similar to yours? There’s even “an app for that.” It would require a tremendous and whole-hearted commitment and organization from the White House and lots of money and patience to accomplish. I don’t see any indication of that happening. And maybe I don’t have enough confidence in the American people to cooperate with the contact tracing and possible isolation, but given the desire to open the economy quickly, I’m afraid there would be resistance. The following is a portion of a very complete article or two...

In a report titled "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience," set to be released on Monday, a blue-ribbon panel of thought leaders across the political spectrum called COVID-19 "a profound threat to our democracy, comparable to the Great Depression and World War II."

"It's a moment for a 'Can Do America' to really show up and put itself to work," Danielle Allen, lead author of the report and a professor at Harvard University's Edmond J.Safra Center on Ethics, told ABC News.

The report says that ending the quarantine safely will require testing, tracing, and supported isolation, a combination known by the acronym TTSI.

"What people need to recognize is that a massively scaled-up testing, tracing and supported isolation system is the alternative to national quarantine," Allen said. "We all had to learn PPE [Personal Protective Equipment] and we all had to learn about flattening the curve ... now we have to learn about TTSI."
<snip>
The report details 4 specific phases to reopening the economy and ending the lockdown:

Phase 1: (May-June) 40% of the population -- including all essential workers (health care workers, firemen, police, sanitation, etc) -- will be tested and their contacts traced.

Phase 2: (June-July) 70% of the population goes back to work -- including workers directly supporting the health sector, such as delivery, service, construction workers, building engineers, maintenance and food workers. The government makes massive infrastructure investments.

Phase 3: (July-Aug) 80% of the population is back to work, including those who must work at locations and in offices.

Phase 4: (Aug-March) All workers return to work and schools reopen. Continue to take precautions until a vaccine is widely available, but the lockdown is over.
BBM

A graphic showing how this would work at this link:
Pandemic Resilience Roadmap

'Road map' to recovery report: 20 million coronavirus tests per day needed to fully open economy

The US economy can't reopen without widespread coronavirus testing. Getting there will take a lot of work and money

Cuomo says:
Cuomo: Millions and millions of tests needed to open economy
Click to expand...

Re: your personal thoughts....my thinking is that the cost of doing it any other way could be a lot higher both in monetary costs and in human lives and livelihoods. Okay, I can't run the numbers, I just have a hunch that putting money into people/on-the-ground legwork contact tracing would require a lot of investment but ought to work out cheaper. I don't know if the US would see the equation the same way at the moment....in the UK we have a number of the large 'NIghtingale' hospitals set up, huge costs in that, not enough staff to operate on a 1 patient/1 nurse basis as ventilation units would normally be run. The stimulus in the US seems quite different from how the UK government has decided to offer financial support to workers and businesses and the total cost is going to be enormous. There was an article the other day (I posted it in the UK section) saying maybe up to six more outbreaks/spikes like this one could happen in the UK in the next 18 months or so before a vaccine comes out. I think maybe the contact tracing route might work out cheaper than full national lockdowns each time along with the hospitalisations and deaths.

But each country has to figure out what it can do that fits it best in various ways, and maybe there's not a one-size-fits-all answer but different countries will try different things, and I hope they all work.
 
To us an old chiche, it seems like the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.
Some companies are preparing to reopen. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci is saying a national shut down would be appropriate, plus several states are extending the stay at home. Feds are saying, here's the plan but backing protestors. Totally confusing.
 
CSIDreamer said:
Can you imagine waking up to a missing leg? :(
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It is interesting, because when Christopher Reeves had his accident, and he was on a ventilator, his mother advocated for her son to be taken off the ventilator. His wife, however, was making the medical decisions and chose life for her husband.

Christopher Reeves made an indelible statement and impact about people who have disabilities. He was amazing. And did so much for the entire world after his accident. He was an absolute hero. And so was his wife. Both of them are gone now.

So, I guess it is a story of courage. And, I admit, probably not one I would want. Which is why I would never want to ever be on a ventilator.
 
Gardener1850 said:
I believe most of them shut down back in March. Article from March 18: Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler shutting down factories amid Coronavirus

During the shutdown Ford made ventilators and GM made face shields for hospitals. They are all trying to make plans to reopen in a way that will protect their employees: Big Three prep for eventual reopening of facilities
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Our next door neighbor works at a Ford plant. He has no clue so far when he's going back.
 
Sundog said:
Starting to make alternate plans for Thanksgiving 2020. We were planning a reunion. Now we're working on getting old family photos together and preparing for a virtual reunion. My brother is organizing it.
Click to expand...
Memorial Day isn't (cliche) going to be a picnic either. Lakewood Cemetery Minneapolis is know for solemn performers, solemn ceremony. Cancellation maybe. Also Fort Snelling has a ceremony, and cars are lined up to get in - wonder how plans are going for this. I would assume other national cemeteries will have considerations.
 
Coronavirus updates: Furlough claims flood in ahead of UK briefing - BBC News

Summary
  1. Chancellor Rishi Sunak, scientist Angela McLean and public health specialist Yvonne Doyle to take part in UK briefing at 17:00 GMT
  2. A further 449 deaths in UK hospitals confirmed, bringing total to 16,509
  3. UK's emergency pay scheme for furloughed workers goes live, drawing 67,000 claims in 30 minutes
  4. Spain's daily death toll falls below 400 for the first time since a pandemic was declared on 11 March
  5. US oil prices drop to 21-year low as border restrictions with Mexico and Canada extended for 30 days
  6. India is allowing millions of people, including farmers, to return to work
  7. There are more than 2.4m infections worldwide, with more than 166,000 deaths
That's the lowest UK daily death rate for two weeks. Last time it was less than that was 31st March. There has to be a reopening plan now IMO. I really think we are on the downward curve now.

As a reminder, the furlough scheme is where UK employers lay off their workers but still keep them on the books at 80% pay, reimbursed by the government. This will be the first months pay under that scheme. This will hopefully keep those workers from needing to claim unemployment and allow for them to go back to work when we open up again.
 
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Amonet said:
Re: your personal thoughts....my thinking is that the cost of doing it any other way could be a lot higher both in monetary costs and in human lives and livelihoods. Okay, I can't run the numbers, I just have a hunch that putting money into people/on-the-ground legwork contact tracing would require a lot of investment but ought to work out cheaper. I don't know if the US would see the equation the same way at the moment....in the UK we have a number of the large 'NIghtingale' hospitals set up, huge costs in that, not enough staff to operate on a 1 patient/1 nurse basis as ventilation units would normally be run. The stimulus in the US seems quite different from how the UK government has decided to offer financial support to workers and businesses and the total cost is going to be enormous. There was an article the other day (I posted it in the UK section) saying maybe up to six more outbreaks/spikes like this one could happen in the UK in the next 18 months or so before a vaccine comes out. I think maybe the contact tracing route might work out cheaper than full national lockdowns each time along with the hospitalisations and deaths.

But each country has to figure out what it can do that fits it best in various ways, and maybe there's not a one-size-fits-all answer but different countries will try different things, and I hope they all work.
Click to expand...

I think the US needs to concentrate on a contact tracing job sector. And staff it with people ages 60+ that have lost a paycheck. Win, win. Jmo
 
Trino said:
To us an old chiche, it seems like the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.
Some companies are preparing to reopen. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci is saying a national shut down would be appropriate, plus several states are extending the stay at home. Feds are saying, here's the plan but backing protestors. Totally confusing.
Click to expand...

I am probably a simpleton but I think looking at the phased reopening would curb a lot of confusion. Larger companies have to start planning now for when they can reopen. Jmo
 
cass523 said:
“Clearly this is something that this is hurting …. but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen.” — NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci on protests against stay-at-home orders.

Dr. Fauci, push to re-open US, explains antibody testing- what they show and what they can't show

video (6 minutes)
Good Morning America on Twitter
Click to expand...

Dr. Fauci stresses the gradual reopening, and says that we have enough tests if used strategically, to test 1.5 million to 2+ million a week, which should get us to the gating of phase 1, if phase 1 criteria are met.

He says the tests are there, what we need is better connectivity with the tests that are available, better connectivity to the states and regions.
 
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