Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[tresir2012]

<modsnip>

Article about Sweden's approach. Very interesting.

Has Sweden got its coronavirus science right?

The article discusses immunity near the end but I have seen WHO are now saying there is no evidence for risk-free immunity. So they don't know.

WHO info from post upthread

World Health Organization (WHO) on Twitter
At this point in the #COVID19pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” #coronavirus
9:16 AM - 25 Apr 2020

World Health Organization (WHO) on Twitter
We acknowledge the anxiety surrounding the unknowns for those who have recovered from #COVID19. WHO and partners continue to review the evidence on antibody responses to the infection. As new evidence becomes available, we will provide updates on this matter. #coronavirus
9:45 AM - 25 Apr 2020

Will Swedes develop immunity?
History will judge which countries got it right. But the latest scientific discussion is focused on the number of Swedes who may have contracted the virus without showing any symptoms.

This is important because many scientists here believe Swedes may end up with much higher immunity levels compared with those living under stricter regulations.

A public health agency report this week suggested around a third of people in Stockholm will have been infected by the start of May.

That was later revised down to 26% after the agency admitted a calculation error. But several high-profile scientists have offered even greater numbers.

Prof Johan Giesecke, ex-chief scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), believes at least half of all Stockholmers will have caught the virus by the end of the month.

It could even be up to half the population of Sweden, suggests Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton.

BBC
People thinking they are OK, spreading to people who also think they are OK, are behind the vast majority of infection transmissions
Prof Johan Giesecke
Former chief scientist ECDC
And until a vaccine is developed, epidemiologist Emma Frans says immunity will "probably be important" for Sweden.

"When it comes to studies and other types of coronaviruses, they have shown that people get immune. Maybe not long-term immunity, but even if we only get this kind of short-term immunity, it may be enough to stop this pandemic," says Dr Frans.

 

[zencompass]

What great news to wake up to!

I am so optimistic about this news article and video about vaccines currently being tested. I apologize if you've already read this.

While I realize that vaccine testing will take months, it is so important for this accurate information to be in the news so that we can see there is hope in the future for this.

In the video, Dr. Santay Gupta interviews Sean Doyle (who is being part of the test program for a vaccine).

He signed up for a trial of a vaccine that's never been used in humans. Here's why. - CNN

Despite all his medical knowledge, 31-year-old medical student and Ph. D. candidate Sean Doyle couldn't know for certain all the risks of the injection he had just received in his right shoulder at Emory University Hospital.

With that injection, Sean had become a critical part of the fastest moving vaccine trials in the history of the world, a vaccine for Covid-19.

 

[mickey2942]

Truly curious. Why do you think it will be much worse.?

I don't think that Montana ever really did get the virus this time. We had less than 500 cases statewide. I think that when things are opened up, snowbirds start travelling through Montana and people come here for vacation, that we will see more cases statewide.

This time, most cases were in Bozeman, specifically Big Sky area. I believe that they were cases from people who came to spend time at their 2nd home in Montana. We have zero herd immunity here. It will come back, and hit hard.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

What great news to wake up to!

I am so optimistic about this news article and video about vaccines currently being tested.

In the video, Dr. Santay Gupta interviews Sean Doyle (who is being part of the test program for a vaccine).

He signed up for a trial of a vaccine that's never been used in humans. Here's why. - CNN

Despite all his medical knowledge, 31-year-old medical student and Ph. D. candidate Sean Doyle couldn't know for certain all the risks of the injection he had just received in his right shoulder at Emory University Hospital.

With that injection, Sean had become a critical part of the fastest moving vaccine trials in the history of the world, a vaccine for Covid-19.

Thanks for posting, and please never apologize even if posted before as this thread moves so fast and many miss stuff.

Interesting report on the RNA trial - that is the platform that the Gates Foundation has been working on. MOO

 

[155etta]

Well all I can say is that all this is depressing enough as it is without gaining a bunch of weight on top of everything. We have a choice here to at least try. It’s hard not to let everything go to the dogs right now but I hope I can inspire or encourage people to really try to not lose total control. Yes we all need our treats, but unless you’re exercising at home this is a bad recipe and the last thing we need is to add more illnesses to ourselves. I have a huge tendency to emotional eat, ice cream specifically, so knowing this I’m not even buying the stuff. If it’s not in the house, I can’t eat it. It also gives me a sense of control, one element which we are all lacking right now.

So quit ordering so much flour, sugar and junk people!!!! You don’t want to be rolling out of your house when this is all over with. Or have increased blood pressure, diabetes, etc. If I can do it, you can do it.

Just some friendly advice to my peeps because I know many are struggling with this. To me it comes down to just not ordering or buying the stuff because if it’s here I have zero control. I have found many alternatives, almond flour, fruit, etc.

ETA: We all know weed also gives you the munchies

Two things I've been making myself do while staying home: Make my bed every day. I've never been a bed maker but I decided early on that it was one thing I would do. The other thing is to walk on my mini trampoline, sometimes called a rebounder, every day. I started out with ten minutes and am now up to thirty. It is no impact, easy on the knees, and can be done while watching TV. I just alternate walking and lightly jogging on it. It doesn't take up much space either when I store it standing up against a wall. It is supposed to be good for the lymphatic system and olympic athletes use them in training. Astronauts also use them when returning from space. Lots out there to read about them. It's been helping me not turn into a ball.
Ten Top Reasons for Using the Mini Trampoline - Your Personal Best Training Studio

 

[Sundog]

Well all I can say is that all this is depressing enough as it is without gaining a bunch of weight on top of everything. We have a choice here to at least try. It’s hard not to let everything go to the dogs right now but I hope I can inspire or encourage people to really try to not lose total control. Yes we all need our treats, but unless you’re exercising at home this is a bad recipe and the last thing we need is to add more illnesses to ourselves. I have a huge tendency to emotional eat, ice cream specifically, so knowing this I’m not even buying the stuff. If it’s not in the house, I can’t eat it. It also gives me a sense of control, one element which we are all lacking right now.

So quit ordering so much flour, sugar and junk people!!!! You don’t want to be rolling out of your house when this is all over with. Or have increased blood pressure, diabetes, etc. If I can do it, you can do it.

Just some friendly advice to my peeps because I know many are struggling with this. To me it comes down to just not ordering or buying the stuff because if it’s here I have zero control. I have found many alternatives, almond flour, fruit, etc.

ETA: We all know weed also gives you the munchies

A big motivator is wanting to live if one gets the coronavirus. We know that the risks for poor outcomes increases with the more health conditions one has. This has been a major wake up call for me, and in early March decided to start eating better and lose weight, and maybe even eventually get off high blood pressure drugs. My goal was to lose 2 1/2 pounds a week, and so far I have lost 20 pounds, and still eating healthily. My husband has been eating more comfort foods, and he has gained 5 pounds.
It isn't easy, but the motivating factor is huge

Edited to add: I should say that I am following a keto diet. Now that I am working remotely, it's easier to control my schedule. When working from the office, I was working long hours and getting home at around 8 p.m., so would just grab anything to eat as I was starving. Now working from home, I can control timing of work and meals. I plan to take advantage of this as long as I can to get my health back on track.

 

[Tadpole12]

So, I put on some “normal clothes” for the first time since I’ve been in lockdown, which is around two months I think. I’ve only been wearing comfie house clothes, PJs and sweats. Well, they are literally falling down I’ve dropped so much weight from loss of appetite and rationing. Maybe 10-20 lbs? Who knew rationing is really portion control haha. Anyway this is HUGE for me because my fibromyalgia medication causes excessive appetite and weight gain, as it’s also prescribed for anorexia lol. I have to work really hard against the medication just to maintain.

The problem now is I’m still not that motivated to exercise at home, but I’m really working on that because I don’t want my muscle mass to deteriorate, and to develop stiffness, lack of flexibility, pain, etc.

Basically I forbid myself to order fattening food or I’ll just sit around and eat it, plus it just doesn’t last. I focused on ordering nutrition based ingredients for meals and that has turned out well.

20 lbs is a good weight loss. You must feel the difference, lighter on your feet?

 

[rogue ant]

But they handled it only the outside. Hence the gloves and mask when handling the outside. Open with those on.

RSBM.
You've got it covered
I don't even do half of that.

 

[Tadpole12]

I expect that there will be some Canadians shaking their fists at the need to stay at home, but we have some decent leadership which helps keep the focus in the right place. I really appreciate the fact that the provinces are working with the feds as a single voice, no matter what their political parties may be.The partisan stuff has largely been set aside for the greater good. For that I respect our party leaders, even Doug Ford.

mj, how come Canadians don't have masks.
I watch the news wrt other countries, and it shows so many citizens wearing masks.
Did they all have a stockpile at home.
Did us Canadians miss the memo?
I'm in the countryside, so I only see a few shoppers with masks.

 

[10ofRods]

I'm curious as to why let criminals out rather than remove the prisoners who have the coronavirus? Certainly, that would be safer and easier in the long run. jmo

One reason is that many prisoners can't be moved to regular hospital beds. Where I'm living, we're lucky to have a floor of a 6 story jail set aside for sick prisoners, where the staff has PPE.

Some places are doing both (removing known-to-be-sick prisoners AND releasing some others). There are several California counties doing this, because they need to get the conditions inside the jail down to where people can be 6 feet apart. The other jail in my county is letting a few people out who would have gotten out within 1-30 days anyway, because there's no way to run the jail and keep everyone 6 feet apart, due to its design.

The main thing that most jails are doing is, in fact, releasing prisoners who were about to reach the end of their 2 year (or less) terms. There are people in Los Angeles County begging the Sheriff to release people even further away from the end of their term, especially if the term was short in the first place (say, 90 days and they've done 35 - they do release such people all the time, for various reasons - but the main one is to have room for new, more dangerous prisoners who need to await felony trials).

Some federal prisons are doing this too, as well as releasing people under other circumstances.

Crime is so far down in SoCal, it's crazy. It's continued to drop since this study was compiled:

COVID-19 and Crime in Major California Cities - Public Policy Institute of California

But, there are still crimes and now jailers want to be safe too, so they want less chance of contagion in their jails.

 

[Tillicum]

I hope it's okay to post this. Hilarious!

 

[10ofRods]

Does 2nd wave mean a) surge in cases as social distancing is abandoned or b) surge in cases owing to flu season.

I think a) depends on how cautious states are in reopening. A wise strategy may be to watch what happens in other places that are opening now. Let them be the science experiment. For b) yes, I do anticipate this'll be around next winter, tho again, how common will depend on controls in place to contain it. For eg, will I and half the people I know be going to Mexico next winter? I doubt it and have already stocked up on firewood instead.

The second wave, IMO, will be due to reopening the economy. I was able to ask some questions in a medical webinar yesterday (and on a couple of doctors' forums), and basically, they said there's "no such thing as a seasonal virus," and that colds and flu occur year round. Some viruses do better in some kinds of weather, CV19 is doing well all around the world (look at Brazil) regardless of whether it's spring-like, summer-like or winter-like weather. It seems to be all about who is immune already and who isn't.

So as we reopen, the decline in cases and deaths should slow (due to continued social distancing policies), but it will not go to zero. Italy is still at around 300 deaths per day and it's been a couple of months for them (the peak was much higher). It's still working its way slowly around Italy.

I think we can expect something similar, although...our higher case mortality rate (and total mortality rate) are related to already weak social distancing policies many places (or the sheer impossibility of complete social distancing, as in New York).

Where I live, the rate of CV is very low (I'm living in my late dad's house in my old hometown, as I am working from home). We've had 13 deaths county-wide, over 6 weeks. So, the County has decided to allow businesses with 10 or fewer employees to reopen, but they have to file distancing plans (salons can't have chairs in use if the chairs are less than 6 feet apart, only one person can be shampooed at a time, etc, etc) Takeout is supposed to be phone-in only but only the employees are required to wear masks. There's supposed to be one person designated to "manage" the customers (because people are getting really aggro if unmasked people disobey the rules and enter the restaurant when they aren't supposed to).

So we went for take out. Two unmasked men who had not phoned in barged into the restaurant while the one person who was supposed to be in the tiny lobby (masked) was picking up. Both left when asked, but one came right back in (several times) and there was no one "managing" this. No markings on the sidewalk about where to stand (which is required). So I emailed County Public Health - they came out the very next day and now there are stripes on the sidewalk, and there's a designated "manager" for the crowd - the part about phone orders only is still not being obeyed, but hey, that's improvement?

We aren't going to do it again (take-out) for a long time, as the one unmasked man was literally breathing all over the 4 properly masked men waiting for their phone orders.

So yeah, the second wave will be strong when places like malls open and if we ever have big sporting events again (Gov Newsom says no stadiums or similar venues open until end of December - but other states will have different views on that).

 

[Sundog]

Interesting article on challenges for free societies and containing COVID-19 compared to authoritarian societies like China.

Coronavirus in Canada: When freedom is a liability - Macleans.ca

 

[dixiegirl1035]

For those that want to follow what the leading state with infections is doing and what to expect etc... today's briefing

 

[Tadpole12]

This post is a reply to the older person that is feeling blah - know more than likely alot of people young and old are feeling blah at times as well. It is a stressful time we are all going through. What may help is to limit ones self from the Covid news to once or twice a day. Have a morning routine taking care of your shower, hair, teeth and a healthy bit to eat. Do some light arms, legs, stretches or go on a short walk, remember to inhale fresh air hold it then breath slowly out several times. Oxygen is good! Order a new magazine or a new tea flavor. Sort out a stash of pictures and order a photo album if needed. There are many fun things on the internet such as a tour of flower gardens in the US or various countries. Sit outside or by the window and watch/listen to birds then try to identify them. Find your state bird? Put a feeder up, a bird bath. Write the name of the birds down. Keep a fun list of to do! If you have no appetite eat small amounts of healthy food, cottage cheese with canned or fresh peaches, cup of soup, drink enough water. Call a friend, facetime family write a story from your childhood for a grandchild or someone you love. Remember to accept it is ok to feel blah nothing is wrong with you. Sometimes a person needs to pull themselves together and make small changes

Thank you, IMJH.

 

[margarita25]

This post is a reply to the older person that is feeling blah - know more than likely alot of people young and old are feeling blah at times as well. It is a stressful time we are all going through. What may help is to limit ones self from the Covid news to once or twice a day. Have a morning routine taking care of your shower, hair, teeth and a healthy bit to eat. Do some light arms, legs, stretches or go on a short walk, remember to inhale fresh air hold it then breath slowly out several times. Oxygen is good! Order a new magazine or a new tea flavor. Sort out a stash of pictures and order a photo album if needed. There are many fun things on the internet such as a tour of flower gardens in the US or various countries. Sit outside or by the window and watch/listen to birds then try to identify them. Find your state bird? Put a feeder up, a bird bath. Write the name of the birds down. Keep a fun list of to do! If you have no appetite eat small amounts of healthy food, cottage cheese with canned or fresh peaches, cup of soup, drink enough water. Call a friend, facetime family write a story from your childhood for a grandchild or someone you love. Remember to accept it is ok to feel blah nothing is wrong with you. Sometimes a person needs to pull themselves together and make small changes

This is awesome.

 

[Anance]

There's practically a war between the "mask-wearers/social distancers" and "the others." If anyone had the courage to study and interview "the others," some will be mentally ill, some will be believers that this is a hoax/caused by 5G or whatever, some are just belligerent.

Yes, this is very common during epidemics. Some people do not want to comply to quarantine rules. During the Spanish flu, San Francisco formed an Anti-Mask League. Results were not good.
PolitiFact - Yes, San Francisco residents formed Anti-Mask League during 1918 flu
Anti-Mask League of San Francisco - Wikipedia

 

[firebird]

Imo, the way they are classifying "Covid deaths" is so absurd, you have to wonder why. The quote is from the link and there's video of her saying this and elaborating at the link.

IDPH Director explains how Covid deaths are classified

Essentially, Dr. Ezike explained that anyone who passes away after testing positive for the virus is included in that category.

"If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death." Dr. Ezike outlined.

 

[10ofRods]

Question about viral load. I read somewhere upthread that viral load means encountering a particularly deadly mutation of the virus.

I thought that viral load meant number of exposures to the virus. The first exposure, the load is low. The second time, the load is higher.

I wonder if many health care professionals including doctors are dying because viral load due to exposure is higher ... nothing to do with a mutated virus, just repeated exposure. Virus mutation at this time has not proven more deadly.

Viral load does not refer to the strain of a virus or this virus, at all. It refers to how many virion (viruses moving between one host and another - virus that's freely floating in the air, in other words) are in your environment.

So, if there were just 2 CV virion that someone's hand left on the bannister in your apartment building, and you touch that and get just 1 of them, that's an extremely low viral load and even if it got into your mouth or nose, your body is likely going to be able to kill it.

As opposed to someone on an airplane, sitting behind you, who makes no attempt to cover their mouth when they cough and sneeze, and they sneeze 10 times, with 30,000 virion per sneeze. You're sitting in a cloud of 300,000 virion within 10 minutes. That's high viral load.

So, doctors who do intubation say that they cannot do it properly with their goggles or face shields on. They have to get right down into the person's mouth with their face (and in the past wore surgical masks to protect the patient - but now they need N95 masks to protect them from the patient - those masks aren't perfect). They are leaning over and nose to nose, basically, with a CV+ patient who is invariably coughing and spewing during the entire procedure (the person is under light sedation and doesn't know any of this - it just happened to me in January). The viral load is so high in that instance that doctors are

ANYWAY, a patient with active viral infection in a closed space is going to increase the viral load which is why taxi drivers, bus drivers, airline personnel, healthcare workers, are all so vulnerable. There are some schools where classrooms built for 18 kindergartners are now used for 30 kindergartners due to lack of resources - the viral load in such a place could get very high, with all the little kids completely asymptomatic.

 

[margarita25]

For those that want to follow what the leading state with infections is doing and what to expect etc... today's briefing

Thank you, starts at 16:08.