Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #60

[Amonet]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.
There have been 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

New virus in China ‘will have infected hundreds'

Up to 4,500 patients in China may have caught the same strain of coronavirus that has killed two people, scientists fear.
Health officials in Wuhan – the city at the heart of the outbreak which started in December – confirmed four new cases today, taking the total to 48.
But Imperial College London researchers say this may be the 'tip of the iceberg' after analysing flights out of the city.

Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Updates and chat - United States:
Current Statistics for Each Individual States

Updates and chat - Other Countries:
Stats and Information from Other Countries

Safety Tips and Things to do While Quarantined
Facial Mask Making - Coronavirus
Grocery shopping tips during Coronavirus quarantine
Recipes to share during Coronavirus quarantine
Health and Safety Tips for living under Coronavirus quarantine
Quarantine Vegetable Gardens

WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

Individuals and Companies that have donated to the Coronavirus COVID-19 cause

Memorial Thread - COVID-19 Coronavirus

______

Case details for US and Canada:
COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

Case details for the entire world:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 206,893 Cases and 8,272 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

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[Tricia]

Hey Everyone,

If you want to quote what the president or anyone in his administrations who give information on what they are doing to contain the virus that is absolutely fine.
THIS IS ME BEGGING NOW. NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT.
PLEASE USE OUR PRIVATE MESSAGING SYSTEM IF YOU WISH TO DISCUSS POLITICS IN ANY WAY. YOU CAN HAVE UP TO 20 PEOPLE ON A PRIVATE MESSAGE. LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER. YOU WILL SEE YOUR USER NAME. NEXT TO THAT IS "INBOX". CLICK ON INBOX AND YOU CAN ACCESS YOUR PRIVATE MESSAGE SYSTEM.

OK, not begging now.

I am so impressed with our members posting much-needed info and members helping each other. I swear I sit here and cry happy tears at how incredible you are with this pandemic.

Please join me tonight on Websleuths Live on YouTube at 10:00 PM Eastern. CLICK HERE to join us live. We have a great chat room going on. and I want to personally invite you all to join us. One main rule. If you a jerk in chat or if you start making inflammatory comments about politics or whatever you will be kicked out. Then you will be forced to listen to Donny Osmonds "Puppy Love" for 30 days. So please behave.
See you tonight.
Love,
Tricia
PS. I actually love Donny Osmond. Very talented, a great businessman and fantastic human being, but, Puppy Love is painful. LOL

 

[Sillybilly]

Please remember ...

No blatantly political posts.
Do not be rude or argumentative.
Do not discuss other members or enquire as to their whereabouts. Members are entitled to their privacy.

Do not discuss moderators, moderation, or removed posts. Doing so can result in a temporary or permanent ban from Websleuths.

If you state information as fact, you must provide a link to support that fact. No link, no post !!

Members may copy their own posts from the general discussion thread over to relevant, more local threads in other appropriate Covid-19 sub-forums. If you think someone else's post relates specifically to another thread within the forum, please use the Report feature to let Mods/Admins know and we will move it on over for you.

If you wish to start a new thread, please run it by a Mod or Admin for approval.

Stay safe, healthy, strong and be kind to others.

 

[CocoChanel]

MOD REMINDER:

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC SUB-FORUMS THAT HAVE BEEN CREATED TO DISCUSS THE MANY ASPECTS OF THIS EXTRAORDINARY TIME. PLEASE TRY TO KEEP YOUR POSTS ABOUT SPECIFIC TOPICS IN THOSE SUB-FORUMS TO ALLOW THOSE INTERESTED IN THOSE TOPICS TO SEE YOUR POSTS. POSTING THEM IN THIS MAIN THREAD MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND THEM AND CAN VEER THE MAIN THREAD A BIT SIDEWAYS. THANKS FOR TRYING YOUR BEST TO KEEP US ON TRACK!

BELOW ARE SOME QUICK LINKS, BUT THEY ARE EASY TO FIND UNDER THE MAIN COVID HEADING ABOUT SAFETY TIPS AND THINGS TO DO WHILE QUARANTINED:

VEGETABLE GARDENS
QUARANTINE RECIPES
GROCERY SHOPPING
HEALTH & SAFETY TIPS
MAKING YOUR OWN HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
FACE MASKS FOR PROTECTION
HOMESCHOOLING
SMILES CAFE

Faithfully,
CocoChanel
Moderator

 

[Sillybilly]

Permanent thread bans have been and will be issued for members who persist in trying to make the thread about politics.

In case you have not read the opening posts above, please etch this part of Tricia's post above in your memory:

NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT

 

[SoCalDavidS]

I have to admit, I'm a bit obsessed with the covid19-projections.com site. I don't spend much time there, probably much less than I do on this thread, but I go either late at night or when I get up in the morning, to see their daily update for the U.S.

On Memorial Day, they updated their projection date to September 1. They predicted something like 225K Death Total by that date. Day by day, that number started to decrease. The drops were bigger at the beginning, and then the daily decreases began to slow, and yesterday, June 5, they reached approx. 187K as the 9/1 prediction. Today, for the first time in a couple of weeks, it ticked Up, to 188K.

What I'm saying is, I think we might be about to see an upswing again. And if we're actually in the midst of that upswing Right Now, Every Single Day that goes by, will make it exponentially more difficult to contain the spread. I feel like the next 2 Weeks will be extremely telling as to which direction, if any, this virus outbreak is headed. Between the rush to reopen nationwide, and the protest marches, I honestly think we might be in trouble. Mitigation measures might minimize the severity of outbreak, but it can't prevent an increase in the spread entirely. Only more restrictive social distancing measures, or perhaps 100% mask usage, can achieve that.

 

[anneg]

[Snipped for focus:]

It does make me think whether, once school starts, if I see my granddaughters every Monday (masked, outside) if I'll sleep better if I get tested on Thursday. I'm trying to avoid outright paranoia here.

We have friends (in their 70s) who are planning a vacation at the beach with family members soon. The plan is for the adults to be tested before the trip (but not our friends, I believe, as they have been staying at home). I don't know if the children will be tested.

 

[mickey2942]

I read that the soccer teams are testing players and coaches before games, and they need to stay quarantined after the tests, until they finish the 2 week round of games. This is the only way to ensure that the players are safe.

This may be the only solution for Hollywood to go back to work. Testing the actors, crew, and keeping them quarantined while filming. Who knows? Maybe every new movie will be like "Castaway" an actor, a coconut, and a soccer ball.

 

[MimosaMornings]

We have friends (in their 70s) who are planning a vacation at the beach with family members soon. The plan is for the adults to be tested before the trip (but not our friends, I believe, as they have been staying at home). I don't know if the children will be tested.

So your friends are transitioning from not going out at all to a family vacation? All in the same house? I would need lots of wine.
Depends on whether the children have been to daycare or somewhere outside their home.
Hopefully it is a secluded beach and not a busy resort vacation area.

 

[Sundog]

Some disconcerting news - for me anyway. My daughter informed me that Tulane University is planning on starting classes for the Fall Semester and will run straight through until Thanksgiving break when the students will finish out the semester online.

I checked and that indeed seems to be the plan:
University Operations | Tulane University

My granddaughter started her first year at Tulane this year. Not only am I sad for her that her college life got disrupted so soon I'm now also worried about her being physically present on campus this fall. I'm sure the school will be diligent about keeping common areas clean but I can't see it being easy to maintain social distancing.

This is what a lot of the universities across the country are planning to do. In Ohio, all the universities are talking to one another and making their plans. Most will hold face-to-face classes in the fall and if more than 50 students, they will use a blended model (both face-to-face and online) in order to allow for social distancing. Fall break will be cancelled so that there will be enough instructional days to meet accreditation requirements and have students go home at Thanksgiving break and not return back to campus until the new year. Final exams will be online. Faculty are concerned about final exams online, as they won't be proctored/supervised. But with flu season around that time, and anticipation about a possible second wave of coronavirus around the same time, this is the direction they are taking. Residence halls will have social distancing - instead of a room that houses four students, there will be only 2, etc. Most meals will be "grab-n-go", and other measures. Students will be provided with cleaning materials to clean their desks when they arrive at their classes, and faculty will have to clean classroom equipment. Students are supposed to wear masks, and faculty and staff, but this will be hard to enforce, especially for students.

There are plans to identify residence hall floors that can be kept empty for use for quarantine if needed.

Lots of planning underway, with not much time to go.

 

[10ofRods]

We have friends (in their 70s) who are planning a vacation at the beach with family members soon. The plan is for the adults to be tested before the trip (but not our friends, I believe, as they have been staying at home). I don't know if the children will be tested.

Makes sense, very good plan. That's a great way for people to use the testing. And it helps with contact tracing, for sure - as they'll leave knowing their status and if they get it, they'll have some idea where.

I hope all goes well - good for them for getting out and being sensible.

 

[galiuro1]

Medical experts voice concerns as Arizona coronavirus deaths top 1,000

Looks like the Memorial Day celebration was just too soon for Arizona...

 

[Spartygirl]

So your friends are transitioning from not going out at all to a family vacation? All in the same house? I would need lots of wine.
Depends on whether the children have been to daycare or somewhere outside their home.
Hopefully it is a secluded beach and not a busy resort vacation area.

We do not have any daycares or schools open since March so not sure where these kiddos live, but most states have had all daycares and schools closed.
But I would still bring a lot of wine, JMO

 

[RosalindaA]

Race, class and CoVid - notes and thoughts from a researcher.

Good article on how CoVid attacks epithelial cells and why some patients die well after the respiratory symptoms are gone. It also suggests treatments at the end for the vulnerable, including statins.

US Billionaires gain 19% more after Corona lockdown

At least 586 healthcare workers have died fighting CoVid.

The real number of healthcare worker deaths is thought to be slightly over 600, in other sources.

The majority of Canadians want to keep border closed with the US. (Editorial comment: Canadians are a sensible people).

UK Coronavirus deaths pass 40,000, double that once considered "a good outcome." This number may not include nursing home deaths, is my understanding. I'm sure someone else knows. Rate-wise, this is 600 deaths per million of UK population (US has 330 per million, Belgium has 800 and is the highest rate in the world).

US still has 20,000 new cases per day and remains at a rolling average of about 1000 deaths per day, 30,000 per month. Arizona spike in numbers is in some of the hottest parts of the state (109°F in some places). Of course, this probably means that people are staying indoors with lots of A/C and even if just in essential jobs, it's significant. I don't know if Arizona has had large protests. Hospitals nearing 100% capacity in Arizona. That was yesterday. The length of hospital stay per CoVid patient is very long, compared to almost any other common condition or illness, so let's hope that AZ gets help. The very hot weather makes tent hospitals impossible.

Black Lives Matter affiliate spent thousands of dollars on masks for peaceful protesters, only to have them confiscated by federal authorities. No word if there was a judicial process for that. I cannot imagine what code or law allows for this kind of thing.

Almost 40% of Americans have gargled with bleach or otherwise used bleach in a dangerous manner (washing food). Pure bleach on food is not a good practice, anywhere. In theory, if the food is going to be cooked, the bleach should evaporate, but seriously, be careful with bleach (and ammonia based) products.

Fox News still staying out of their offices amid Corona fears. Why not? Keep people safe. If it's working from a distance, keep it at a distance.

Good news: US CoVid tests passed the half million daily mark yesterday.

Just to make clear, again, that the UK's figures DO INCLUDE NURSING/CARE HOME DEATHS UK coronavirus deaths pass 26,000 (point at which past nursing home deaths were all added in and henceforth included on a daily basis)
Looking as a whole at excess deaths in the UK over the period of the pandemic, it is 53,000 approximately in total (at the moment, 40,000 certified officially as Covid-19) - so while some of these will be due to people's reluctance to go to medical settings over fear of the virus/effects of lockdown, many of this extra deaths are probably attributable to undiagnosed Covid-19 Undiagnosed coronavirus 'likely explanation' for some excess deaths in England and Wales.
So whilst the UK figures appear high and I am sure will be the subject of many enquiries and in this country, I do believe at least they are pretty accurate and we are not "cooking the books", unlike some other countries.
Although shielding care/nursing homes would have been very difficult in the beginning and remains difficult, due mainly to asymptomatic spread and lack of effective testing, I think most countries are concluding that more could have been done. The observations that have been made about lack of discernible symptoms in elderly patients is something I have seen with many illnesses, in person, in elderly, frail people. They simply don't have the energy.
Masks and PPE only do so much, at some point when staff are literally running between patients and doing long shifts of physically demanding care, sweating away covered in plastic, they do have to be able to take the odd breath. So much blame being focused on these homes. Certainly, they'd better have been documenting from the beginning what they did, did they follow their infectious disease procedures, did they ask for testing, etc?
But to be fair, you also have to look at the hospitals and what systems they had in place to prevent them sending back infected patients into congregate settings. It is often very diffficult for homes to refuse admissions, often the patient will just turn up in the ambulance anyway. Government should not have to tell hospitals how to manage this, any medical person knows that putting an infected patient back into a group setting is like posting a molotov cocktail through the letterbox. It is chapter 1, page 1, paragraph 1, so no excuses, as far as I am concerned for the medics and hospital managers here, and heads should roll if they are proven to be negligent.
And as for the "experts", the academics and the public health quangos, if this issue is not found to have been immediately highlighted as a major danger, and probably the most critical in preventing deaths, then they should also be excoriated publicly.
Too many advisers out of touch with the working health systems and not enough notice taken of people with practical experience.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I wish someone could explain to me how this works. How is it that the inhale is filtered while the exhale isn’t? I have a reusable mask like this, but I still don’t understand the how.

Think of it like a heart valve. Valve only opens when pressure pushing out. It is reverse of why we are asked to be wearing masks, to protect others.

What is a mask valve?
Some masks and respirators have a little plastic piece embedded in the fabric. It’s a one-way valve. That means it closes when you breathe in, so pathogens can’t get in through it. But when you breathe out, this valve opens, creating a doorway for your exhalation to leave the mask.

What is a mask valve, and why are cities banning them?

 

[HongKongPhooey]

***

 

[tresir2012]

Yeah - the headline said 40%, which is why I added "or otherwise." They're including using all kinds of toxic products on one's person or food.

4% is still...1 in 25. Which would mean that most of us know someone in that category...which is why I posted. It's important to mention such things in a manner that allows people to realize what a bad idea it is,

Using bleach on food can be okay, but really, safe food handling practices strongly discourage it. Most of the respondents had merely sprayed their bodies with bleach or with lysol (neither of these is medically recommended).

Now that the CDC has our attention, they also want us to know that using bleach around hot water can cause lung damage.

So do not handwash dishes with it or take a shower with it. There are definitely problems with it - one of which is to irritate the respiratory system - the opposite of what we want in CoVid.

Why British and Irish Hospitals Dumped Bleach

Spraying the body with bleach is a pretty bad idea, in short.

Doesn't the US wash chicken in bleach though, to kill salmonella?

 

[tresir2012]

Places of worship to reopen for private prayer

This is ridiculous to not now allow churches to properly open, yet allow the street protests to go ahead.

 

[tresir2012]

Is R number balanced on knife edge?

There have been warnings coronavirus may be starting to spread again in the north-west and the south-west of England.

Some scientists say the R number is creeping up across the country and may have surpassed one - the point at which the epidemic takes off again - in these regions.

Tameside Council has "strongly" advised schools not to reopen on Monday.

The government insists the number is not above one anywhere in the country.

So, what is going on? How worried should we be? And what does it mean for lifting lockdown?

Quickly, what is the R number again?
It is the number of people each infected person, on average, passes the virus onto.

If the R is three, then 10 people would infect 30 others. But if R is 0.5, those 10 people would infect only five.

An R of one is the crucial threshold. Anything lower and an epidemic is in decline, but if it goes higher then cases increase exponentially.

Media captionWhat is the R number and what does it mean?
What are the scientists saying?
That R is increasing across England.

One team at Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge says this has been the clear pattern in their data since 11 May, when restrictions in England were eased.

Their findings suggest we're now balanced on the edge of a knife.

"Both the north-west and south-west are just above one, but all regions are straddling one," said Dr Paul Birrell, one of the researchers.

But this is just one mathematical model and there is huge uncertainty in the figures. The PHE data gives a figure between 0.72 and 1.2 for London.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine agrees the south-west may be above one, but paints a more optimistic view of the rest of England and their R number for the north-west is just 0.8.

"Overall, I would say we see R creeping up," Dr Sebastien Funk, from the London School, told the BBC.

They also say the R number is 0.8 in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

More at link.

I did notice and post yesterday that UK deaths had increased this week from a 4.9% increase to a 5.5% increase after several weeks of falling numbers.

 

[tresir2012]

UK passes 40,000 coronavirus deaths

Some interesting facts.

Behind the US and the UK with the highest reported coronavirus deaths, are Italy, previously Europe's worst-hit country, with 33,600 deaths, and Brazil, where more than 34,000 people have died.

But experts have warned full global comparisons may take months, with countries using different methods to calculate the death toll.

Friday's UK death toll represented only one of the ways the government counts coronavirus deaths, focusing on people who have died after a positive Covid-19 test.

Figures published by the UK statistics agencies on Tuesday show an even higher toll.

Up to the week ending 22 May, 48,106 people had died in the UK with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate.

Did policy mistakes cause the high UK death toll?

It is in many ways a shocking figure. The first recorded UK death with coronavirus was in early March - now in the first week of June the total has hit 40,000.

Adjusting for the size of the population, the UK has the second highest number of deaths in Europe after Belgium, though there has to be some caution with comparisons because of different methods of calculation.

There has already been much debate about whether the UK figures reflect policy mistakes early on.

Some argue the lockdown should have happened sooner, with mass spectator events in mid-March such as the Cheltenham racing festival cancelled rather than being allowed to go ahead.

Others have criticised the failure to continue with community testing and tracing of contacts in March.

But there are academics who argue that every European country was taken by surprise by the rapid spread of the virus and it is too early to make a comprehensive analysis of each one's performance.

Westminster and the devolved administrations point out that thanks to intensive preparations the NHS coped with the surge of coronavirus patients.

The crisis may have contributed to a greater loss of life from other causes too, with 61,895 more deaths recorded than would be expected for this time of year, between the beginning of the outbreak and 22 May.

The Office of National Statistics has said this may be due to a delay in care for other conditions, such as dementia, asthma and diabetes. Others may be unidentified coronavirus cases, it said.

The UK's population of older people has been worst affected by Covid-19, with over-80s being 70 times more likely to die than people under 40.

Concerns have also been raised over the impact on ethnic minority communities, with people with Bangladeshi ethnicity more than twice as likely to die from coronavirus than white Britons, taking age and sex into account.

But the death rate is falling, with the most recent review of death certificates showing the lowest number of coronavirus-related deaths since March.

And a national survey suggests the number of people infected with coronavirus in England has fallen, from 8,000 a day last week to 5,600 a day.