10ofRods
Verified Anthropologist
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- Jun 27, 2019
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I live in an area of California that had few to no protests. Our rates are climbing exponentially.
You can look at someplace like Madera County as an example - exponential, no protests. But they never closed down. Why? In their case, it's because Yosemite reopened. In San Luis Obispo (never closed) it's because they just didn't get it until well after every other coastal area got it (low population, essential travel only in the rest of the state). In the case of my county, it's because from Memorial Day weekend onward, our activity levels as measured by Google Analytics and other measures have gone back to 50% of normal - in short, no one obeyed even the lax rules of our county Public Health officer. No one work masks. Everyone went out and has stayed out since, with increasing numbers of places to go and contract CoVid.
Opening everything up will not restore the economy and people will go homeless as others continue to shelter themselves.
I don't know you or your values, but 80% of younger people at our college do not want real world classes. They are not returning to their pre-CoVid habits. Why? Because we now have more active cases than ever.
What will happen, of course, is a shift from the very old being dead to the young being very sick. 20% of people between 25 and 45 will require hospitalization. Average hospital stays are 20 days.
Think of the medical bills. Think of how the economy will have to shift toward health care.
And in your model, this will go on for as long as 3-4 years.
Whether you want it or not, the hospitality sector and even Disneyland will remain closed. Many service sector jobs (including all of the ones so sought after by many) will close. The number of corporate bankruptcies is just starting to climb (or store closures - Santa Barbara just lost the kingpin of its Paseo Nuevo: Nordstrom's quietly closed without a word to the public and put their large space back on the market - that's happening all over the US).
This is just getting started. Naturally about half of the population will get CoVid and only feel moderately ill (although if you read the article posted here yesterday about the nurse with the mild-moderate case and you still believe that EVERYONE MUST GET THIS DISEASE OR STAY HOME, which is your message)
It's not good public health practice, going out is optional, tons more people will get jobs that allow working from home - if they're employed at all - the world will undergo a 5 year radical change in economy, all because so many people think "everyone getting it" is the way to go.
I don't want anyone to get it. It's an awful disease that leaves young and old alike with permanent lung damage. The number of people awaiting lung transplants goes up every day and healthy life expectancy drops each day..
For all we know, we can get this disease again and again, until we hit about 50 years old, when we can look forward to a late middle age of CoVid, lung and heart issues, increased diabetes (CoVid can cause diabetes is the newest calamity) and so on.
But closing down was never real and never an option. Of course the protests fueled it (look at Los Angeles). Look at the demographics of who is getting admitted. Look at the places where hospitals are now full. It's not the protesters themselves, necessarily, but people to whom they communicated CoVid. We aren't seeing the deaths from that yet - and we pray that since it's younger people on this go-round, deaths will be less.
But the costs to the economy and to overall American health are worsened by not trying to curb this thing.
One third to one half of Americans won't wear masks, so I assume they agree with you. It's nice that you are okay with words being "pelted," but I am more concerned about this actual disease. The more I see of it and the more I read the medical literature, the less I want it myself.
There is one hope for some of us: a vaccine. If we get it in time to save Disneyland, I will go back.
There will be tons of unvaccinated people at Disneyland, of course. But those of us with adequate antibodies can go safely and let everyone else get it, without their masks.
With a vaccine, and with the process you're advocating, CoVId will still circulate, perhaps at a level high enough to discourage international travel to the US, but as the vaccine becomes available to wealthier nations worldwide, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated will come and then and only then will we get back to the New Economy. The unemployment will remain high throughout this.
Anyway - your ideas are the ones we are apparently going to use, and I guess we will all be on the same roller coaster. I'm going to buckle up, it's a choice we each can make.
