Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #63

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I think the biggest problem we have right now with Covid-19 is complacency. We all play a part in creating a safer environment for our communities. Social distancing and masking are not substitutes for one another. When possible they should be practiced together. However, we need to remember that it's not a one size fits all and some people are unable to follow those recommendations.

I feel that we need to start transitioning from a crisis response to a long term response. At this point, we need to learn to live in a Covid environment.

The biggest problem is that a whole lot of people still need to come to grips with your last sentence. Unfortunately it's probably going to have to get like the Prohibition Era, where we see the return of speakeasies and underground entertainment/sports.
 
Sorry, but saying it's 90% is dishonest (not by you). We've come full circle though and I have no intention of going back to the original posts to show why the calculations are wrong.
Well I havent seen the raw data of all the daily deaths but I do think it could be correct based on the daily counts that were chosen, but I cannot check it, so am commenting based on the additional figures I linked. Do you accept a reduction of approx 80% based on the weekly US figures I posted? I will be posting my UK figures shortly that I have been putting on here weekly for some time now and will do a similar calculation that we can compare to the UK graph I linked too. If you aren't interested, then it's fine, as I do it for everyone reading the thread.
 
The biggest problem is that a whole lot of people still need to come to grips with your last sentence. Unfortunately it's probably going to have to get like the Prohibition Era, where we see the return of speakeasies and underground entertainment/sports.

That's a scary reality.
 
Yeah, I like to point out to people who mention a 2nd wave, that the 2nd wave being talked about is the one to come in the Fall, when Flu season arrives.

We're still in the 1st Wave. You see, the curve needs to be flattened in order for the wave to be over. Our curve came about halfway down, before starting to rise again. Point being, we're still in the 1st Wave over here in the U.S.
I'm not sure where we are in all honesty. Just saw on local news here that at a nursery (kindergarten?) 20 people including kids and staff have tested positive.
 
It's probably going to suffer more.

You see, we're like a Gambler who is Down $100K and at a Roulette table. Now said gambler could play it conservatively, betting smaller amounts, trying to claw his way out of the hole.

But we did not choose that path. We decided to go ALL IN, on reopening. We just put our last $100K on Black, hoping we can save ourselves. But as the wheel spins, and the ball bounces around, it keeps popping in and out of Red #'s. The wheel hasn't stopped spinning, so there's still the chance for a win. But as it slows, things are beginning to look more and more like a bust.

excellent analogy
 
So we have had analogies of riding the horse, the roller coaster, playing the roulette wheel and going underground. Seems like a few agree it will be a bumpy ride whatever route we are on.
 
I think the biggest problem we have right now with Covid-19 is complacency. We all play a part in creating a safer environment for our communities. Social distancing and masking are not substitutes for one another. When possible they should be practiced together. However, we need to remember that it's not a one size fits all and some people are unable to follow those recommendations.

I feel that we need to start transitioning from a crisis response to a long term response. At this point, we need to learn to live in a Covid environment.
The virus, sadly, is not selective. And it stays "alive" by jumping from host to host. A physical disconnection between any 2 people, as well as a facial covering over susceptible facial orifices...is the only way to stop it from spreading and eventually eradicate it...Until/unless there is a treatment which guarantees someone I love (or myself) will not die from it, or until there is a successful vaccine, the leap from one host to the next is better left in midair. JMO
 
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The analogy is wrong because it is comparing the mask wearer/non wearer to a drunk driver. That would only appear to be a correct analogy if the person had Covid and knew it. Also driving drunk is against the law but not wearing a mask is not uniformly against the law. A better analogy could be wearing a condom perhaps. MOO.

Googling brings up loads of articles but this is one of the more recent ones.

Why do so many Americans refuse to wear face masks? Politics is part of it — but only part

Thanks so much for the interesting article, @tresir2012. It’s well worth reading and makes it clear that the reasons people wear or don’t wear masks are varied and complex. After I posted my question trying to make sense of why people don’t wear masks, I read something a counselor said...he never expects people to make sense. :D Those may be words to live by right now!

But regardless of individual reasons for not wearing a mask, the article confirmed in some detail what I’ve been saying all along:

If common sense prevailed, all Americans would wear face masks, Abrams told MarketWatch. But in light of heightened uncertainty, “strong emotions override rationality, and we look to leaders for guidance.”
Why do so many Americans refuse to wear face masks? Politics is part of it — but only part

As I’ve pointed out before, it is the responsibility of the leaders of any country toward their citizens to model behavior recommended by the epidemiologists and other scientists they’ve asked to guide them. Unfortunately, the U.S. leaders refuse to do that and instead model rebellious, oppositional behavior. IMO the vast majority of citizens would be wearing masks and social distancing if the leaders had led by example.

For the sake of my emotional health, I won’t even try to make sense of why they haven’t! :eek: o_O

JMO MOO
 
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Yeah, I like to point out to people who mention a 2nd wave, that the 2nd wave being talked about is the one to come in the Fall, when Flu season arrives.

We're still in the 1st Wave. You see, the curve needs to be flattened in order for the wave to be over. Our curve came about halfway down, before starting to rise again. Point being, we're still in the 1st Wave over here in the U.S.
On your deaths curve you have flattened it and it is still pointing down. All is not lost.
 
I realize there is not an answer forthcoming to this question. But I wish someone would ask, of those who say we should just live with a certain # of deaths going forward and that it's time to accept that as the price for moving forward. What # of daily deaths should we accept? Is there an actual limit, or will that be ever changing as the numbers rise?

500 per day? 1,000 per day? 1,500? Or if it gets to say 2,000/Day, will that be the # to accept? Just curious.
CDC have statistics regarding what they call excess deaths. You may want to have a look at that site. I will find the link.
 
CARROLLTON, Texas — As North Texas watches COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surge, one family is shouldering a health crisis that they never expected to face.

That crisis, all began on May 30 when just a single relative, unknowingly infected with COVID-19, interacted with seven family members at a surprise birthday party.

North Texas family shaken after 18 relatives test positive for COVID-19 following surprise birthday party

This is such a sad story. There will be many more such stories, unfortunately.
 
Hawaii plans to reopen with testing in August.

It's either an (enforced) 14 day quarantine or presenting test results from a test within 72 hours before travel. I suspect there will be pop-up testing sites around California and other places where travel to Hawaii is common (Las Vegas, Seattle, San Francisco).

It may take a while for people to get the hang of this kind of tourism and I hope people buy travel insurance (or are prepared to work with airlines about rescheduling if possible - I'm sure airlines will be flexible as they want the business as well).

Naturally, many people won't want to jump through that hoop. But Hawaii knows how to control pestilence and Hawaiians are fully behind their government in demanding this.
 
This is the June 5th WHO guidance on masks. If there is anything later than this please post it.

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 5 June 2020

Today WHO is publishing updated guidance on the use of masks for control of COVID-19.

This guidance is based on evolving evidence, and provides updated advice on who should wear a mask, when it should be worn and what it should be made of.

WHO has developed this guidance through a careful review of all available evidence, and extensive consultation with international experts and civil society groups.

I wish to be very clear that the guidance we are publishing today is an update of what we have been saying for months: that masks should only ever be used as part of a comprehensive strategy in the fight against COVID.

Masks on their own will not protect you from COVID-19.

Here is what has not changed:

WHO continues to recommend that people who are sick with symptoms of COVID-19 should remain at home, and should consult their health care provider.

People confirmed to have COVID-19 should be isolated and cared for in a health facility and their contacts should be quarantined.

If it is absolutely necessary for a sick person or a contact to leave the house, they should wear a medical mask.

WHO continues to advise that people caring for an infected person at home should wear a medical mask while they are in the same room as the sick person.

And WHO continues to advise that health workers use medical masks and other protective equipment when dealing with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients.

Here is what’s new:

In areas with widespread transmission, WHO advises medical masks for all people working in clinical areas of a health facility, not only workers dealing with patients with COVID-19.

That means, for example, that when a doctor is doing a ward round on the cardiology or palliative care units where there are no confirmed COVID-19 patients, they should still wear a medical mask.

Second, in areas with community transmission, we advise that people aged 60 years or over, or those with underlying conditions, should wear a medical mask in situations where physical distancing is not possible.

Third, WHO has also updated its guidance on the use of masks by the general public in areas with community transmission.

In light of evolving evidence, WHO advises that governments should encourage the general public to wear masks where there is widespread transmission and physical distancing is difficult, such as on public transport, in shops or in other confined or crowded environments.

Our updated guidance contains new information on the composition of fabric masks, based on academic research requested by WHO.

Based on this new research, WHO advises that fabric masks should consist of at least three layers of different material. Details of which materials we recommend for each layer are in the guidelines.

We also provide guidance on how to wash and maintain a fabric mask.

Our guidance also explains how to use a mask safely.

People can potentially infect themselves if they use contaminated hands to adjust a mask, or to repeatedly take it off and put it on, without cleaning hands in between.

Masks can also create a false sense of security, leading people to neglect measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.

I cannot say this clearly enough: masks alone will not protect you from COVID-19.

Masks are not a replacement for physical distancing, hand hygiene and other public health measures.

Masks are only of benefit as part of a comprehensive approach in the fight against COVID-19.

The cornerstone of the response in every country must be to find, isolate, test and care for every case, and to trace and quarantine every contact.

That is what we know works. That is every country’s best defense against COVID-19.

WHO will continue to provide the world with advice based on the most up-to-date evidence, as part of our commitment to serving the world with science, solutions and solidarity.
 
and so it begins:

Cowboys-Steelers Hall of Fame Game canceled

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has canceled the NFL's preseason-opening game between the Cowboys and Steelers, who were scheduled to play the pre-season opener on Aug. 6 in Canton, Ohio.

The Hall of Fame Game marks the first event on the NFL calendar canceled because of the pandemic.

I wonder why they don't consider playing to empty stadiums, as some sports in some nations are doing. Wouldn't the at home TV audience be huge?

I wonder if it's because of the recent CV+ tests of football players and the inherent risks of playing the game itself.

I've advocated that NFL/AFL teams invest in their own testing systems so that they can identify CV+ personnel each day and thereby reduce risk drastically. There would still be some minor risk, but the risks would be less than the other inherent risks of football. I"m not a football fan, but I know many who are and what with all this staying home, people really would love to have a distraction.
 
On your deaths curve you have flattened it and it is still pointing down. All is not lost.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...263b50-b620-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html


Coronavirus deaths lag behind surging infections but may catch up soon

June 24, 2020 at 8:45 p.m. EDT
With novel coronavirus infections setting a single-day national record Wednesday, health experts are taking little solace from one of the few bright spots in the current resurgence: Deaths are not rising in lockstep with caseloads.


But that may be just a matter of time.

“Deaths always lag considerably behind cases,” Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease specialist, told Congress at a hearing Tuesday. In the weeks to come, he and others said, the death toll is likely to rise commensurately.

 
I realize there is not an answer forthcoming to this question. But I wish someone would ask, of those who say we should just live with a certain # of deaths going forward and that it's time to accept that as the price for moving forward. What # of daily deaths should we accept? Is there an actual limit, or will that be ever changing as the numbers rise?

500 per day? 1,000 per day? 1,500? Or if it gets to say 2,000/Day, will that be the # to accept? Just curious.

It's a strawman, but I'll take a swing. Everything comes with risk - now we've added congregating with others to that list. It's time for everyone to decide what their level of comfort is. If you don't want to risk dying of this, then take steps to mitigate (or eliminate) that risk - like if you don't want to be the victim of a car accident, you can eliminate that risk from your life.

I don't know anybody on my side of the issue that "counts" deaths, except in order to counter misinformation. My wife smokes, I don't - her Doctors constantly hector her about it - be neither of us count or lament the deaths caused by cigarettes.

So the answer is people on my side of the issue don't have a number - anymore than we would with any other natural disaster, like an earthquake or tsunami. Some people bury the dead, while others rebuild the village.
 
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