Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #66

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
Could you explain how herd immunity is established? I thought that is part of what is happening in the states now. Ie R10 instead of R<1

When the epidemic started the R number in the US was roughly 2.5. Epidemiologists refer to this as R0. Each person with the disease was infecting an average of 2.5 others. If we did no social distancing the R number would eventually drop when most of the population has immunity. They had recovered from having the disease or were vaccinated. Herd immunity is the point where R drops below one in that scenario.

What is happening now is we are lowering the R number with social distancing. If the average person interacts with half the number of people they did before the epidemic it will cut R by half. The problem is that when we relax social distancing the R number goes back up again.

If we reach herd immunity, infections will drop to near zero without social distancing.

This site will help you understand how all of this works:

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
 
Bigger bus needed.
No kidding!

School Bus Physical Distancing.





Right and Wrong ways and Prevention tips of coronavirus 2019 nCoV. kids wearing face mask and keep social distancing.

right-wrong-ways-prevention-tips-coronavirus-ncov-kids-wearing-face-mask-keep-social-distancing-right-wrong-189076284.jpg


School Bus Social Distancing Photos
 
Last edited:
When the epidemic started the R number in the US was roughly 2.5. Epidemiologists refer to this as R0. Each person with the disease was infecting an average of 2.5 others. If we did no social distancing the R number would eventually drop when most of the population has immunity. They had recovered from having the disease or were vaccinated. Herd immunity is the point where R drops below one in that scenario.

What is happening now is we are lowering the R number with social distancing. If the average person interacts with half the number of people they did before the epidemic it will cut R by half. The problem is that when we relax social distancing the R number goes back up again.

If we reach herd immunity, infections will drop to near zero without social distancing.

This site will help you understand how all of this works:

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
Thanks for the link. So herd immunity is not the goal while we have restrictions. So the plan must be to get herd immunity with a vaccine.
 
Three Months In, Many Americans See Exaggeration, Conspiracy Theories and Partisanship in COVID-19 News

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults (64%) say the CDC and other public health organizations get the facts right “almost all” or “most” of the time when it comes to the coronavirus outbreak, while about half as many (30%) say the same about President Trump and his administration. Instead, a solid majority of Americans (65%) say the White House gets the facts right only “some of the time” (29%) or “hardly ever” (36%).

Much more at link.
 
Unfortunately, it depends on who gets to be labelled as 'experts'. Public health official are saying some of the spread has been from protests:

"We’ve been really honest and said from the beginning that for any people that are in crowded situations for long periods of time – which long for us means more than 15 minutes – where you’re in close contact with people, less than six feet apart and people aren’t wearing a cloth face covering you have a heightened risk of either transmitting the virus if you are an asymptomatic spreader, or getting the virus from someone else who is spreading because they also are an asymptomatic spreader." LA Mayor Garcetti admits 'connection' between coronavirus outbreak and protests, after downplaying link

However, it's been suggested that the effect of increased spreading from protests was offset by other people staying home. Research Determines Protests Did Not Cause Spike In Coronavirus Cases

Here is another story from NPR:
Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus
June 24, 2020 3:23 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus

The first part of the article is about what occurred in Bellingham, Whatcom County, WA. Erica Lautenbach is the director of the Whatcom County Health Dept.

"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread.

And much of that spread, Lautenbach says, is affecting young people.

"...in April of this year, we were really struggling with long-term-care outbreaks. And so about 3 out of 4 people were over the age of 30 and really pretty heavily skewed to 60-plus. And by contrast, in June, we're seeing that now 2 out of 3 people that have contracted this disease are under 29."

That trend is mirrored in Florida, where the median age for COVID-19 patients dropped from 65 years old in March to 37 in late June. Dr. Cheryl Holder, an associate professor at Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine at Florida International University, says that's partly because young people are getting exposed more.

"It's really basically who gets exposed," Holder tells Morning Edition. "If you look who is staying in and following the guidelines, [it's] older people who are at risk. The older folks got [the message]; the young people, not so much."

More at link.
 
One child per seat in every other row. Drop-off times and locations would be staggered.

Well, that will keep the school bus drivers employed for longer hours, so that is good for their income. :)
Teachers being back at work will be good for their income. And parents will be able to work. Win, win, win.
 
There are so many layers to the "back to school" issue. Special Education programs are going to be extremely difficult to manage.

New Jersey is starting summer special education services and youth camps on July 6:

here are the guidelines:
https://www.nj.gov/health/ceohs/documents/phss/Youth_Day_Camps_Standards_COVID-19.pdf

The state Department of Education said districts with in-person summer school programs — including extended school year and special education services — must follow similar safety protocols as youth camps, which can also resume with restrictions July 6.

Summer school can start July 6 in N.J. — and it can be in person, Murphy says
 
No kidding!

School Bus Physical Distancing.

Right and Wrong ways and Prevention tips of coronavirus 2019 nCoV. kids wearing face mask and keep social distancing...

<respectfully snipped for space>

Makes me wonder if we'll hear a new version of Wheels On the Bus: "The virus on the bus goes round-and-round...all through the town" :D
 
Last edited:
Seems hand washing is especially important if one wears a non N95 mask

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...dard-use-for-all-covid-care-say-investigators

From your link:
“Because various organizations have claimed that medical masks are acceptable, health system administrators may believe that they have a valid reason to deny N95 respirators to HCWs on COVID-19 units and reserve them for AGPs [aerosol-generating procedures] even when other guidelines do recommend their use,” the investigators write.

Yes, there are shortages of N95s, but “instead of allowing our HCWs to work in substandard protection, countries should focus on allocating resources to increase production of … N95 respirators.”
...
“Use of N95 respirators to protect HCWs should not merely be a preference or a recommendation based on availability,” the study states. “The data indicate that it should be the standard for all inpatient COVID-19 management.”
 
https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2...ons-return-to-in-person-education-in-schools/

American Academy of Pediatrics Guidance
Much much more at link

The purpose of this guidance is to support education, public health, local leadership, and pediatricians collaborating with schools in creating policies for school re-entry that foster the overall health of children, adolescents, staff, and communities and are based on available evidence. Schools are fundamental to child and adolescent development and well-being and provide our children and adolescents with academic instruction, social and emotional skills, safety, reliable nutrition, physical/speech and mental health therapy, and opportunities for physical activity, among other benefits. Beyond supporting the educational development of children and adolescents, schools play a critical role in addressing racial and social inequity. As such, it is critical to reflect on the differential impact SARS-CoV-2 and the associated school closures have had on different races, ethnic and vulnerable populations. These recommendations are provided acknowledging that our understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is changing rapidly.

Any school re-entry policies should consider the following key principles:

  • School policies must be flexible and nimble in responding to new information, and administrators must be willing to refine approaches when specific policies are not working.
  • It is critically important to develop strategies that can be revised and adapted depending on the level of viral transmission in the school and throughout the community and done with close communication with state and/or local public health authorities and recognizing the differences between school districts, including urban, suburban, and rural districts.
  • Policies should be practical, feasible, and appropriate for child and adolescent's developmental stage.
  • Special considerations and accommodations to account for the diversity of youth should be made, especially for our vulnerable populations, including those who are medically fragile, live in poverty, have developmental challenges, or have special health care needs or disabilities, with the goal of safe return to school.
  • No child or adolescents should be excluded from school unless required in order to adhere to local public health mandates or because of unique medical needs. Pediatricians, families, and schools should partner together to collaboratively identify and develop accommodations, when needed.
  • School policies should be guided by supporting the overall health and well-being of all children, adolescents, their families, and their communities. These policies should be consistently communicated in languages other than English, if needed, based on the languages spoken in the community, to avoid marginalization of parents/guardians who are of limited English proficiency or do not speak English at all.
With the above principles in mind, the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school. The importance of in-person learning is well-documented, and there is already evidence of the negative impacts on children because of school closures in the spring of 2020. Lengthy time away from school and associated interruption of supportive services often results in social isolation, making it difficult for schools to identify and address important learning deficits as well as child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation. This, in turn, places children and adolescents at considerable risk of morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. Beyond the educational impact and social impact of school closures, there has been substantial impact on food security and physical activity for children and families.
 
Thanks for the link. So herd immunity is not the goal while we have restrictions. So the plan must be to get herd immunity with a vaccine.

To achieve herd immunity in the United States without a vaccine 300 million people have to suffer from this disease. The fatality rate is about .5% meaning 1.5 million of them will die. If the health care system is overwhelmed the fatality rate and death toll will be much higher.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Staff online

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
128
Guests online
2,233
Total visitors
2,361

Forum statistics

Threads
599,870
Messages
18,100,524
Members
230,942
Latest member
Patturelli
Back
Top