Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[10ofRods]

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. It would allow them to develop herd immunity while the vulnerable populations were protected. When herd immunity is reached, everyone would be safer, right?

There is no scientific evidence that herd immunity is even a thing, without vaccines, nor that herd immunity is possible in the case of CoVid (too soon, but also...concerning issues regarding lasting antibodies).

Only about 1 in 10,000 of those students would die, but about 3000 of them would need hospitalization. If UK thinks they can handle such a load (how many students total? enough hospital beds?) and they have nurses, doctors and PPE for all of that load?

Don't forget that not everyone lives in a dorm, so some students will be moving back and forth between parents' house and campus regularly, spreading it directly into the community. Everyone under 60 should probably avoid contact with either uni students or their parents (and if it were my workplace, I'd want full disclosure and tracing for all parents with kids/young adults in school).

Naturally, the professors and staff will get it too. A quick perusal of a couple of British universities shows, that in the US, the average age of a fully tenured professor is about 55. The profs who built the Oxford vaccine are about that age or a little older.

About 1% of the faculty over 55 and younger than 75 will die from CoVid, on average (2-3% of those 70-75). I know younger people think they can just step in and fill those jobs, but the best teaching profs are often the oldest ones (that's why there's emeritus status and some of the best profs at Oxford and Cambridge are in that category).

Anyway - there will be no herd immunity and it will roll through them. It will take about a year for all of them to get it - and the parents will be playing roulette, wondering if their kid just got it a week before holiday break. Once it's back out in the general community/adult workplaces, it will just be rinse and repeat - as there will always be a new crop of students that need to have it go through their ranks. Students with Type I diabetes (from birth) should probably stay home. All people dealing with cancer should stay home.

The student athletes may find that ground grass opacities (present in 40% of mild cases) ground their budding careers, as competing at top level with lung capacity reduced by even 1% point would take them out of the top ranks.

Here, we have a number of 20-somethings on lung transplant wait lists. Once the focus becomes "what's happening to our young people?" instead of "protect the old," I think each nation who attempts this is in for a world of confusion and hurt.

 

[musicaljoke]

The UN (via WHO) are advocating that lockdowns are not the answer.

No more lockdowns: World Health Organisation warns that the price is too high - GO! & Express

That's quite the title for this article! I wonder how many people will be confused, thinking that the WHO said, "No more lockdowns", when that isn't what they said at all!

 

[tresir2012]

There is no scientific evidence that herd immunity is even a thing, without vaccines, nor that herd immunity is possible in the case of CoVid (too soon, but also...concerning issues regarding lasting antibodies).

Only about 1 in 10,000 of those students would die, but about 3000 of them would need hospitalization. If UK thinks they can handle such a load (how many students total? enough hospital beds?) and they have nurses, doctors and PPE for all of that load?

Don't forget that not everyone lives in a dorm, so some students will be moving back and forth between parents' house and campus regularly, spreading it directly into the community. Everyone under 60 should probably avoid contact with either uni students or their parents (and if it were my workplace, I'd want full disclosure and tracing for all parents with kids/young adults in school).

Naturally, the professors and staff will get it too. A quick perusal of a couple of British universities shows, that in the US, the average age of a fully tenured professor is about 55. The profs who built the Oxford vaccine are about that age or a little older.

About 1% of the faculty over 55 and younger than 75 will die from CoVid, on average (2-3% of those 70-75). I know younger people think they can just step in and fill those jobs, but the best teaching profs are often the oldest ones (that's why there's emeritus status and some of the best profs at Oxford and Cambridge are in that category).

Anyway - there will be no herd immunity and it will roll through them. It will take about a year for all of them to get it - and the parents will be playing roulette, wondering if their kid just got it a week before holiday break. Once it's back out in the general community/adult workplaces, it will just be rinse and repeat - as there will always be a new crop of students that need to have it go through their ranks. Students with Type I diabetes (from birth) should probably stay home. All people dealing with cancer should stay home.

The student athletes may find that ground grass opacities (present in 40% of mild cases) ground their budding careers, as competing at top level with lung capacity reduced by even 1% point would take them out of the top ranks.

Here, we have a number of 20-somethings on lung transplant wait lists. Once the focus becomes "what's happening to our young people?" instead of "protect the old," I think each nation who attempts this is in for a world of confusion and hurt.

A lot of the students have it already and are confined to their halls working online only. Obviously this wouldn't work for those living at home or out in the community, but it is the ones in the halls and they are already catching it mainly.

Covid: About 40 universities report coronavirus cases

This article says 40 unis out of 130 reportedly have Covid as of more than two weeks ago. It has a link in it called Unicovid that may have more up to date info.

UniCovid UK | Tracking Covid-19 at U.K. Universities

From the link

Current tally:
114 Universities have reported coronavirus cases.
92 in England.
1 in Northern Ireland.
14 in Scotland.
7 in Wales.

As at 9am 15 October 2020, our data puts the number of confirmed cases for students at 16,397, for staff 255, in total 16,652.

As at 5pm 15 October 2020, the UCU dashboard reported 20,022 confirmed covid cases at U.K. universities.

That's unbelievable. From 40 universities to 114 in only 2 weeks.

Higher education in numbers

This link says 2.38 million was the student population 2018/19 so that is almost 1% infected already.

 

[musicaljoke]

The county I live in is a great tourist and retiree destination. So plenty of old folks, and plenty of strangers all the time. But it also has a very broad based poor, middle and working class population. The vulnerable abound!!
My tiny church helps with many cooperative programs to help folks out, including a day-drop where we provide bagged breakfasts and lunches, and sundries and critically needed items like socks and boxer shorts!!! We are now collecting sweat shirts for them.

We serve the homeless and the underserved. A number of our "visitors" are older, and many had little part time jobs. Most have lost their little jobs. Some have chosen to not work, because they are scared healthwise. They are so appreciative of what they get from the day-drop, but they just have no idea what they are going to do long term.

Just sayin... there are so many with no disposable income, whose lives are very difficult.

But what you say here is just what is soooooooooooooooo needed.

A big plan is needed. Re-ventilation of nursing homes and hospitals should of course be in the plan, as well as ongoing mandates for masks in public transportation and indoor businesses where eating/drinking aren't a factor.

Planning and analytics could, and should be the Master American Plan that we all can see and understand.

I truly believe, if we had that, more American would understand that we all have to sacrifice to some degree for the good of the country.

Indeed. No one needs to justify why they are of value to society. This is a fundamental principle, long ago entrenched in our charters and declarations. We cannot ascribe to a two tiered society.

Charterpedia - Section 7 – Life, liberty and security of the person

https://www.oas.org/dil/access_to_i...claration_of_the_Rights_and_Duties_of_Man.pdf

Article 2: Right to life | Equality and Human Rights Commission.

 

[tresir2012]

That's quite the title for this article! I wonder how many people will be confused, thinking that the WHO said, "No more lockdowns", when that isn't what they said at all!

They only have to read the article. Her direct quote from the article -

“Lockdowns are not something that WHO recommended, but they needed to be used in a number of countries because the outbreaks were growing so quickly,” Van Kerkhove said. “But we’re hopeful countries will not need national lockdowns again.”

I think that is pretty clear, if she is quoted correctly in the article. I wish I could believe it but most of the UK is beginning another lockdown now.

 

[10ofRods]

A lot of the students have it already and are confined to their halls working online only. Obviously this wouldn't work for those living at home or out in the community, but it is the ones in the halls that are alreadycatching it mainly.

Well, then, if in dorms, then yes, I'd think that by two weeks before Christmas, the students could begin a couple of weeks of testing (although - are test results coming back quickly enough for that? I keep reading that there are lags in various parts of England, especially).
-----------

France now in third place for new cases (with over 30,000 new cases in the last day; that would be like the US having 150,000 cases in one day, per capita). It's really alarming and in reading both French and other literature in epidemiology, it's clear that CoVid became widespread in school age children in September, and it is now spreading among their families, high school age kids, college kids, and workers in urban areas who use public transport or work in poorly ventilated buildings; this last issue may be the biggest one, but so far, that's not how Macron is addressing it).

Household transmission is clearly one of the main vectors in France, say their epidemiologists. The death rates should be around 1-2% of cases, though, given that it seems most of the very elderly are sheltering.

People who do daily walk videos of Paris are showing an increasingly empty city - it's like the Times Square area - I'd say it's 10% of the usual foot traffic. So while stores, restaurants and bars are open during the day, few people are venturing out.

Looks like France is averaging about 100 deaths per day over the last 3 days, with not all data tabulated. Will it really go as high as 300 deaths per day in future? That's what some predict - but if most of the people are under 50, it should be lower, maybe 150-200. The serious illness component may be slightly lower in France (very healthy population) than other places, with only 1750 currently in ICU. Something to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, UK is hovering at just under 20,000 new cases a day, with about 130 deaths per day (that's about 4000 deaths per month). That's like the US having 100,000 new cases a day (UK has roughly 1/5th our population).

That's why there's such urgent concern in Europe - while we in the US just keep plugging along with our 50-60,000 (!) new cases per day. I think we can say CoVid is effectively out of control in many places, but we all know what to do to stay safe, at least.

 

[tresir2012]

Well, then, if in dorms, then yes, I'd think that by two weeks before Christmas, the students could begin a couple of weeks of testing (although - are test results coming back quickly enough for that? I keep reading that there are lags in various parts of England, especially).
-----------

France now in third place for new cases (with over 30,000 new cases in the last day; that would be like the US having 150,000 cases in one day, per capita). It's really alarming and in reading both French and other literature in epidemiology, it's clear that CoVid became widespread in school age children in September, and it is now spreading among their families, high school age kids, college kids, and workers in urban areas who use public transport or work in poorly ventilated buildings; this last issue may be the biggest one, but so far, that's not how Macron is addressing it).

Household transmission is clearly one of the main vectors in France, say their epidemiologists. The death rates should be around 1-2% of cases, though, given that it seems most of the very elderly are sheltering.

People who do daily walk videos of Paris are showing an increasingly empty city - it's like the Times Square area - I'd say it's 10% of the usual foot traffic. So while stores, restaurants and bars are open during the day, few people are venturing out.

Looks like France is averaging about 100 deaths per day over the last 3 days, with not all data tabulated. Will it really go as high as 300 deaths per day in future? That's what some predict - but if most of the people are under 50, it should be lower, maybe 150-200. The serious illness component may be slightly lower in France (very healthy population) than other places, with only 1750 currently in ICU. Something to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, UK is hovering at just under 20,000 new cases a day, with about 130 deaths per day (that's about 4000 deaths per month). That's like the US having 100,000 new cases a day (UK has roughly 1/5th our population).

That's why there's such urgent concern in Europe - while we in the US just keep plugging along with our 50-60,000 (!) new cases per day. I think we can say CoVid is effectively out of control in many places, but we all know what to do to stay safe, at least.

I just edited my previous post and added some stats and a link. The UK uni numbers are shocking.

 

[Trino]

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. It would allow them to develop herd immunity while the vulnerable populations were protected. When herd immunity is reached, everyone would be safer, right?

Except the case when one might die or have lasting health problems.

Well we did have a milking herd too.

And, if you do get a shingles shot, be prepared for a reaction. I had one with EACH of two shots, mentioned it to my doctor who said, "Yes. It's been happening."

 

[Trino]

Did you grow up on a farm, out of interest, as I did? My job was shutting in the chickens at night and wonder if that was why I never caught it. MOO.

Chickenpox has nothing at all to do with chicken. The name was meant to distinguish this "weak" form of the pox from smallpox. "Chicken" is used here, as in "chickenhearted," to mean weak or timid.
Definition of Chickenpox

 

[Satchie]

There is no scientific evidence that herd immunity is even a thing, without vaccines, nor that herd immunity is possible in the case of CoVid (too soon, but also...concerning issues regarding lasting antibodies).

Only about 1 in 10,000 of those students would die, but about 3000 of them would need hospitalization. If UK thinks they can handle such a load (how many students total? enough hospital beds?) and they have nurses, doctors and PPE for all of that load?

Don't forget that not everyone lives in a dorm, so some students will be moving back and forth between parents' house and campus regularly, spreading it directly into the community. Everyone under 60 should probably avoid contact with either uni students or their parents (and if it were my workplace, I'd want full disclosure and tracing for all parents with kids/young adults in school).

Naturally, the professors and staff will get it too. A quick perusal of a couple of British universities shows, that in the US, the average age of a fully tenured professor is about 55. The profs who built the Oxford vaccine are about that age or a little older.

About 1% of the faculty over 55 and younger than 75 will die from CoVid, on average (2-3% of those 70-75). I know younger people think they can just step in and fill those jobs, but the best teaching profs are often the oldest ones (that's why there's emeritus status and some of the best profs at Oxford and Cambridge are in that category).

Anyway - there will be no herd immunity and it will roll through them. It will take about a year for all of them to get it - and the parents will be playing roulette, wondering if their kid just got it a week before holiday break. Once it's back out in the general community/adult workplaces, it will just be rinse and repeat - as there will always be a new crop of students that need to have it go through their ranks. Students with Type I diabetes (from birth) should probably stay home. All people dealing with cancer should stay home.

The student athletes may find that ground grass opacities (present in 40% of mild cases) ground their budding careers, as competing at top level with lung capacity reduced by even 1% point would take them out of the top ranks.

Here, we have a number of 20-somethings on lung transplant wait lists. Once the focus becomes "what's happening to our young people?" instead of "protect the old," I think each nation who attempts this is in for a world of confusion and hurt.

Exactly. IMO, with measles, small pox, etc before vaccines, most people caught it and if they survived to adulthood were immune. But this wasn't any kind of paradise of 'herd immunity' because people moved around between herds, so to speak, and continued to spread it that way, in particular to children, who died in very large numbers so that the chances that your child might survive to adulthood was about 50%. Or, to indigenous people in the new world, killing something like 2/3s of the population in many areas. The only way you can maintain herd immunity, IMO, is if you keep the livestock permanently isolated and don't allow them to mix with livestock from other farms, without a quarantine period for the exposed cow or bull.

 

[Trino]

We must not have been reading the same article. The crime against humanity is not about pursuing a vaccine, but against leaving a vulnerable population exposed to a deadly virus.


Crime against humanity means [...] acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack: Inhumane acts intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.

United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect

And, are we forgetting the possible long-term effects of the virus? Not just a crime against humanity but a continuing health problems perhaps for a lifetime.

 

[BUF]

Christie Says He Was ‘Wrong’ Not to Wear Masks at White House

Mr. Christie said he had spent days in the intensive care unit of the Morristown Medical Center in New Jersey, after taking himself there on Oct. 3 at the insistence of his doctor. Mr. Christie, who was at high risk for negative effects of the coronavirus because of his weight and because he is an asthmatic, was one of several people around Mr. Trump, who announced early on Oct. 2 that he had tested positive, to contract the virus.
.....
“I believed when I entered the White House grounds, that I had entered a safe zone, due to the testing that I and many others underwent every day,” Mr. Christie said in the statement. “I was wrong. I was wrong not to wear a mask at the Amy Coney Barrett announcement and I was wrong not to wear a mask at my multiple debate prep sessions with the president and the rest of the team.”

“I hope that my experience shows my fellow citizens that you should follow C.D.C. guidelines in public no matter where you are and wear a mask to protect yourself and others,” he said.
......
Local health officials where Mr. Christie lives in New Jersey called him for contact-tracing purposes, but he said he has never heard from the White House for such a thing.

 

[tresir2012]

Except the case when one might die or have lasting health problems.

And, if you do get a shingles shot, be prepared for a reaction. I had one with EACH of two shots, mentioned it to my doctor who said, "Yes. It's been happening."

I think I had a test for it before and I was immune I think but I will have to check with the doc. I should have asked when I got my flu jab last week darn it.

 

[10ofRods]

A lot of the students have it already and are confined to their halls working online only. Obviously this wouldn't work for those living at home or out in the community, but it is the ones in the halls and they are already catching it mainly.

Covid: About 40 universities report coronavirus cases

This article says 40 unis out of 130 reportedly have Covid as of more than two weeks ago. It has a link in it called Unicovid that may have more up to date info.

UniCovid UK | Tracking Covid-19 at U.K. Universities

From the link

Current tally:
114 Universities have reported coronavirus cases.
92 in England.
1 in Northern Ireland.
14 in Scotland.
7 in Wales.

As at 9am 15 October 2020, our data puts the number of confirmed cases for students at 16,397, for staff 255, in total 16,652.

As at 5pm 15 October 2020, the UCU dashboard reported 20,022 confirmed covid cases at U.K. universities.

That's unbelievable. From 40 universities to 114 in only 2 weeks.

Higher education in numbers

This link says 2.38 million was the student population 2018/19 so that is almost 1% infected already.

Yes - and that's why there's been a flurry of scientific articles about how, due to the silent spread amongst most students (including many uni students), it can percolate for an extended time period then erupt within a population (let's face it, uni students visit other uni students, including those from other unis, particularly as they participate in athletics or inter-university competitions and projects).

With 1% infected, there should be good data in about 2 months as to the consequences of this policy. (fatalities, recoveries, organ transplant lists, heart and lung damage, length of hospitalization, etc). It's clear, though, that this is part of why UK is seeing an overall bump-up in cases.
---------------

Meanwhile, back in the US, I just sat and stared at Alabama's numbers today. 50 deaths in one day. Their population is just 5 million. So that would be like California having 400 deaths in a day or UK having 600. It's mind-boggling. Surely the weather/storms have played a role. Louisiana, though, with a similar size and situation, has only 12 deaths (so in line with the rest of the nation).

Florida leads the US in new deaths (139), with a population about ⅓ that of UK or ½ of California. So you can see that local/regional issues in the US are very much involved in our overall numbers. Wisconsin is of course tallying up a lot of new cases, but they appear to be in the 20-55 group, which helps with the death numbers.

 

[10ofRods]

I think I had a test for it before and I was immune I think but I will have to check with the doc. I should have asked when I got my flu jab last week darn it.

It's the same virus as chicken pox. Perhaps you had a silent case as a child. My daughter's first case of it resulted in 2 small itchy spots, 1 day of fever. Then, a few years later, she got it again and boy, was it bad (kids' immune systems are a bit tricky). If you are immune to chicken pox/shingles, that's great - but the reason the some of us are getting the booster is that apparently, immunity to varicela wanes with age.

I haven't gotten my shingles shot yet, because I had an immune issue way back in my 30's, and I got shingles (so presumably, formed more antibodies at that time). It was no fun at all, but I was young enough to get over it pretty quickly (older people who lose their immunity to it may have quite a long case of it).

I don't even know how often it's recommended (I just entered the age group this year).

 

[tresir2012]

Chickenpox has nothing at all to do with chicken. The name was meant to distinguish this "weak" form of the pox from smallpox. "Chicken" is used here, as in "chickenhearted," to mean weak or timid.
Definition of Chickenpox

We had fowl pest on our farm in the 50's. Varicella encephalitis is connected to the virus that causes that though apparently.

 

[SouthAussie]

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. It would allow them to develop herd immunity while the vulnerable populations were protected. When herd immunity is reached, everyone would be safer, right?

I am not sure that people understand how many people are considered vulnerable.

It is said that in the UK, about one quarter of their population is considered vulnerable.

Translate that to the US population (because I cannot find any comment on the size of the vulnerable population there) and that would mean that 82,750,000 people would be considered vulnerable.

That is one heck of a lot of people to contain, protect, and tend to ..... and for how long?
"When herd immunity is reached" seems a very vague statement. How long would that take? Years?
The anticipated date for any vaccine is already being pushed further and further away.


In the UK, about a quarter of the population would be classed as vulnerable to Covid-19.
Why herd immunity strategy is regarded as fringe viewpoint

 

[Satchie]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but it makes sense to me to protect the most vulnerable and allow those who are the healthiest to go about their lives in the hope that they become infected but not fall ill, and then they would contribute to the herd immunity.

Of course I'm not a virologist, but it just makes sense to me.

The actual declaration is here a whole lot of scientists have signed in support of it.

Great Barrington Declaration – An open letter and declaration from public health academics and professionals

I think there is an attraction to a 'theory'. IMO the trouble comes when it comes down from theory to practicalities.

For example, their suggestion that only people who have contracted the virus should be allowed to work in long term care homes. Okay, very nice in theory. But what is the reality?

1. All the people who work in nursing homes will be laid off until they can 'prove' through some foolproof bureaucratic system that they've had the virus.

2. There will be no one to staff nursing homes until all those people can recover from the virus and come back. Meanwhile, the residents take care of it, somehow.

3. Some bureaucratic system will have to be created that produces certificates that 'prove' you had the virus and recovered. Currently, there are no such certificates. So the authorities will have to hop to it and create and issue those certificates. I'm sure they have time on their hands to implement that across the whole of the western world.

4. Meanwhile, people who have already had the virus will need to retroactively get a certificate because they can't work until they have one. After all, we can't rely on their word alone, or most people would say, 'yeah, sure, I had it' just to keep their jobs.

5. The people who have not had it need to go out there and catch it, pronto, so that they can get back to work. How are they going to do that? How are they going to survive without their job? Meanwhile, being low-paid homecare staff, they likely are living with many other family members, including elderly. Where are they going to quarantine? I guess the idea is, the more they spread it, the better.

IMO these people who sit around a table in a nice retreat centre and show off how smart they are in a blue sky think tank, have no concept of how anyone could or would want to implement even one of their declarations. That's not their problem, they are the ideas people who live in the world of theory, they don't bother with the nitty gritty of life. If I continue I will mention things about parts of bodies and orifices so I better stop.

JMO

 

[HongKongPhooey]

They only have to read the article. Her direct quote from the article -

“Lockdowns are not something that WHO recommended, but they needed to be used in a number of countries because the outbreaks were growing so quickly,” Van Kerkhove said. “But we’re hopeful countries will not need national lockdowns again.”

I think that is pretty clear, if she is quoted correctly in the article. I wish I could believe it but most of the UK is beginning another lockdown now.

I dont think the Tier system is on a par with the national lockdown. Retail will stay open even for those in "very high" risk, which at the mo is *just* Liverpool city area. At least last I looked. Greater Manchester should be but the mayor was resisting. The new system seems to focus on households mixing and hospitality. I'm in Tier 1, with most of England, and there are few hard hitting restrictions (unfortunately IMO).

Totally appreciate Wales is imposing more stringent measures.

Covid: What are the Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 lockdown rules?

ETA link. Which says more than half going into Tier 2 actually. London pop must be a big factor in that.

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>
IMO these people who sit around a table in a nice retreat centre and show off how smart they are in a blue sky think tank, have no concept of how anyone could or would want to implement even one of their declarations. That's not their problem, they are the ideas people who live in the world of theory, they don't bother with the nitty gritty of life. If I continue I will mention things about parts of bodies and orifices so I better stop.

JMO

Agreed. "Here is a nice theory, now YOU somehow make it work"