Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #85

[SouthAussie]

Yes but how many of those wedding/family gatherings, etc were a problem because some attending adult had been infected by a non-symptomatic child who contracted it at school?

The bad thing is that it is all a guessing game, isn't it? No-one is sure where the cases come from, except in very specific cases. This is a major downfall. Because if no-one knows exactly where the cases are coming from, how do you stop them?

This problem has been evident for a long time.


.... the United States offers vanishingly few details on how the disease is spreading, even as people increasingly socialize and travel, and authorities reopen schools and businesses. This state of affairs is frustrating data researchers, who want to help authorities make decisions that can save lives.
“We shouldn’t be flying blind at this point,” says Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida in Gainesville. “We shouldn’t have to speculate.”

Why the United States is having a coronavirus data crisis

 

[SouthAussie]

Sending moral support from Ireland! We're a week and a half into our latest national lockdown. It hasn't felt quite as restrictive as the spring one and numbers are finally going in the right direction now...

Ireland one of four EU countries where 7-day rate down

Latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ireland is one of only four countries in Europe where the seven-day incidence rate of Covid-19 has decreased compared to last week.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has said Ireland's progress is encouraging but fragile, and effort is needed to make it last.

The weekly figures from the WHO show the seven-day rate here decreased by 36% this week.

Twenty-four other European countries recorded a rise in the corresponding rate.

Ireland is also 20th out of 28 European countries in terms of rate, meaning only eight other countries have a lower seven-day incidence of the virus.

HSE Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry told last night's briefing at the Department of Health that the deteriorating situation in Europe was being looked at with apprehension here.

He said progress was fragile and Ireland was only ever a few weeks away from healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

However at the moment, all key indicators are starting to look more positive for the country.

There is an overall decline in case numbers, the R number now stands at around one, and confirmed cases now have fewer close contacts.

(More at link)

Wow ... a drop of 36% in the 7 day rate. Good going!

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Wow ... a drop of 36% in the 7 day rate. Good going!

I think there was a bit of a slowdown in testing for a few days last week so that apparent large drop may be overstated. But also GPs said they were referring fewer patients for Covid tests in the first place so that's good. The picture should be clearer in a few weeks.

 

[SouthAussie]

The race for a Covid vaccine is reaching a crucial stage, with the glimmer of a possibility that one of the leading contenders will be approved by Christmas.

Within weeks, the first results to show whether one of the vaccines actually works will emerge.

It could be Oxford University, partnered with drug company AstraZeneca. It could be Moderna in the US. Or it could be Pfizer and the German company BioNTech.

All three have either recruited the last of the tens of thousands of volunteers they need for the critical final trials or will shortly do so.

And sometime in November or December, their independent monitoring boards will “unblind” their secret data to find out whether fewer people given the experimental vaccines are getting Covid-19.

The hope will be that most, if not all, of the people with Covid-19 will not have had the coronavirus vaccine.

Expectations of what the first vaccine will do are probably way too high. It will not end the pandemic.

To be approved, it needs to be at least 50% effective. And it must be safe.

'It's possible': the race to approve a Covid vaccine by Christmas

 

[ZoriahNZ]

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the 5th Meeting of the IHR Emergency Committee on COVID-19

Thank you so much for transcribing this for us, Margarita25!

Sobering stuff. One passage in particular really stood out to me:

It also reinforces to me just how morally unconscionable and unfeasible the so called ‘natural herd immunity’ strategy is.

Not only would it lead to millions more unnecessary deaths, it would also lead to a significant number of people facing a long road to full recovery.

Herd immunity is only possible with safe and effective vaccines that are distributed equitably around the world.

And until we have a vaccine, governments and people must do all that they can to suppress transmission, which is the best way to prevent these post-COVID long-term consequences.

I truly hope that world leaders will listen to the consensus of the scientific community and not the outliers (who, more often than not IMO, have an agenda which is not that of prioritizing the public's health). MOO.

 

[Trino]

Thank you so much, anneg. I still owe you one for advising me not to get up on that ladder lol.

You know, I honestly really thought in the early days that we were only going to be here for a few months, meaning I thought we were going to band together and knock this sucker out, just as we saw other countries do in real time. Why wouldn’t we?

How wrong I was. It was apparent what was happening as things started to unfold, but never in my wildest dreams did I imagine when this all first went down that we would have gotten here, to this point where we are now. I never could have imagined that so many people would be more concerned about a damn mask than people’s lives. All the denyin’, conspiracies, disrespect, hostility and flat out suppression by some towards science and medical professionals who to try to help save lives and provide facts and guidance to the best of their abilities at the time, outright superspreading, violence towards innocent people in stores, ETC. ETC. ETC. Just unbelievable. What a shame. I had noooo idea so many people didn’t care about other people and were so selfish, and brainwashed. It’s a heartbreaking and infuriating realization, one I’m not sure I’ll ever get over, frankly.

And it’s just unbelievable that nothing much is being done right now to contain the virus.

 

[GRT]

does anyone understand why the US and Europe are suddenly having such a big COVID resurgence? It is "more than 14 days" since schools started and "more than 14 days"since europe opened restaurants and businesses and "more than 14 days" since people were on summer holidays. I just do not understand it....unless it is the greater contagion with the newest strain? It is also in urban and rural places and in western (France, Belgium, Germany) and eastern (Czech Republic) countries.... do not think that I will ever understand this virus.

There's a lot about it to question. Now, we're seeing surges in places where they claimed the lockdowns got control.

Personally, I think it's traveling in ways other than via the air. I think it may be in the water systems, because they're testing for it (and finding it) in waste water. Does that mean an infected person's bodily fluids are infectious? So many chemicals are flushed down along with human waste and we've been told plain old soap and water, and hand sanitizer, quickly kill the virus. Why then is it surviving the trip down the sewage system and being found in the sewage treatment plants?

A bigger question for me is why--when this virus is still working its way around the globe--is China getting off easy? I know people will say it's because they locked down early, but China opened up again in March, which was VERY soon after the infections and their citizens have been traveling internationally but they still don't seem to catch covid. The US has had over a quarter-million deaths, while China has had less than 5,000. China has more than three times the population of the US, and their people are packed like sardines. Statistically, they should have well over a million deaths.

 

[GRT]

And it’s just unbelievable that nothing much is being done right now to contain the virus.

I have not seen a maskless person in over a month and a half, and others are reporting the same, yet the virus is spreading at warp speed.

Even if states and counties are not mandating masks, stores are and everyone's wearing them, so why now?

Spain and Italy have announced more lockdowns and the people are rioting! Burning, looting!

We have to think of a different way. Human beings resist being subordinated, even if it's done for their own good.

This is becoming increasingly volatile.

 

[SouthAussie]

China has more than three times the population of the US, and their people are packed like sardines. Statistically, they should have well over a million deaths.

Going by that theory, Australia should have had 17,600 covid deaths ... and yet we have had 907. We would have had around 100 covid deaths, if Victoria's 2nd wave hadn't happened (and it shouldn't have).
That is what controlling the virus does for a country.

(China's population is not all packed like sardines. It has huge countryside areas. And Wuhan itself - pop. 11 million - is a very sprawling city. Not to mention being a compliant population, one that wears masks and stays home when required.)

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Going by that theory, Australia should have had 17,600 covid deaths ... and yet we have had 907.
That is what controlling the virus does for a country.

(China's population is not all packed like sardines. It has huge countryside areas. And Wuhan itself - pop. 11 million - is a very sprawling city. Not to mention being a compliant population, one that wears masks when required.)

Yes, China and South Korea and Oz did basic 101 pandemic control (hard line at that!) and then, they tested 9 MILLION in five days in the city of Qingdao in China in the last two weeks to stamp it out because they found an outbreak of 12 cases.. yes, just 12 cases and they then tested the entire population of the city!!! Covid-19: China's Qingdao to test nine million in five days

As another poster above was asking about virus in sewage, they are the remnants of viral particles being picked up, not active infections. MOO and per Dr. Campbell and Dr. Seheult and papers. They show up on the PCR test which picks up dead viruses.

 

[SouthAussie]

I have not seen a maskless person in over a month and a half, and others are reporting the same, yet the virus is spreading at warp speed.

Even if states and counties are not mandating masks, stores are and everyone's wearing them, so why now?

Here is some info that might go some way to explaining the situation.


More Americans may be wearing masks than early last spring, but other recommended behaviors to stop the pandemic's spread haven't kept pace, according to a new federal survey. And young people are the least likely to take needed steps to stop the virus, the data suggest.

The proportion of U.S. adults reporting wearing face masks increased from 78% in April to 89% in June, according to the nationally representative survey released by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday.

But the survey found either no change or a decline in other behaviors aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus, such as hand-washing, social distancing and avoiding public or crowded places.
Mask-Wearing Is Up In The U.S., But Young People Are Still Too Lax, CDC Survey Finds


The refusal to go along with expert health guidance has persisted even in parts of the country that are seeing soaring caseloads and hospitalizations. That was driven home this week when the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, Deborah Birx, toured North Dakota

What Birx witnessed dismayed her.

“Over the last 24 hours, as we were here and we were in your grocery stores and in your restaurants and frankly, even in your hotels, this is the least use of masks that we have seen in retail establishments of any place we have been”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...001546-1883-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html

 

[ZoriahNZ]

Another country that seems to be succeeding is Taiwan. Notably, they did not implement a total lockdown, but they focused on a speedy response, ramped up testing and contact tracing, as well as other measures. In their case, preparation for a potential pandemic paid off.

Taiwan Covid: How they went 200 days without a locally transmitted case - CNN

Authorities activated the island's Central Epidemic Command Center, which was set up in the wake of SARS, to coordinate between different ministries. The government also ramped up face mask and protective equipment production to make sure there would be a steady supply of PPE.
The government also invested in mass testing and quick and effective contact tracing.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Sending moral support from Ireland! We're a week and a half into our latest national lockdown. It hasn't felt quite as restrictive as the spring one and numbers are finally going in the right direction now...

Ireland one of four EU countries where 7-day rate down

Latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ireland is one of only four countries in Europe where the seven-day incidence rate of Covid-19 has decreased compared to last week.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has said Ireland's progress is encouraging but fragile, and effort is needed to make it last.

The weekly figures from the WHO show the seven-day rate here decreased by 36% this week.

Twenty-four other European countries recorded a rise in the corresponding rate.

Ireland is also 20th out of 28 European countries in terms of rate, meaning only eight other countries have a lower seven-day incidence of the virus.

HSE Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry told last night's briefing at the Department of Health that the deteriorating situation in Europe was being looked at with apprehension here.

He said progress was fragile and Ireland was only ever a few weeks away from healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

However at the moment, all key indicators are starting to look more positive for the country.

There is an overall decline in case numbers, the R number now stands at around one, and confirmed cases now have fewer close contacts.

(More at link)

Good to hear this Mo.

I was thinking of you earlier, posted about colcannon on the food and drink thread!

 

[ilovewings]

And it’s just unbelievable that nothing much is being done right now to contain the virus.

more like "nothing at all"-----It is unconscionable

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Sending moral support from Ireland! We're a week and a half into our latest national lockdown. It hasn't felt quite as restrictive as the spring one and numbers are finally going in the right direction now...

Ireland one of four EU countries where 7-day rate down

Latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ireland is one of only four countries in Europe where the seven-day incidence rate of Covid-19 has decreased compared to last week.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has said Ireland's progress is encouraging but fragile, and effort is needed to make it last.

The weekly figures from the WHO show the seven-day rate here decreased by 36% this week.

Twenty-four other European countries recorded a rise in the corresponding rate.

Ireland is also 20th out of 28 European countries in terms of rate, meaning only eight other countries have a lower seven-day incidence of the virus.

HSE Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry told last night's briefing at the Department of Health that the deteriorating situation in Europe was being looked at with apprehension here.

He said progress was fragile and Ireland was only ever a few weeks away from healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

However at the moment, all key indicators are starting to look more positive for the country.

There is an overall decline in case numbers, the R number now stands at around one, and confirmed cases now have fewer close contacts.

(More at link)

Thanks, Mo. Looks like we’re about to follow you into a national lockdown in an attempt to save Christmas. What an absolute mess.

 

[Trino]

Thank you so much for transcribing this for us, Margarita25!

Sobering stuff. One passage in particular really stood out to me:



I truly hope that world leaders will listen to the consensus of the scientific community and not the outliers (who, more often than not IMO, have an agenda which is not that of prioritizing the public's health). MOO.

So, what do we do to help those who deny to understand when our federal government is doing nothing to help?

 

[Trino]

I have not seen a maskless person in over a month and a half, and others are reporting the same, yet the virus is spreading at warp speed.

Even if states and counties are not mandating masks, stores are and everyone's wearing them, so why now?

Spain and Italy have announced more lockdowns and the people are rioting! Burning, looting!

We have to think of a different way. Human beings resist being subordinated, even if it's done for their own good.

This is becoming increasingly volatile.

IMO had the US Government done the right immediate thing by federally mandating people would have listened, and we would not be where we are now. Right now there seems to be no turning the clock back.

 

[GRT]

IMO had the US Government done the right immediate thing by federally mandating people would have listened, and we would not be where we are now. Right now there seems to be no turning the clock back.

Highly unlikely a federal mandate would be constitutional. The CDC has the ability to quarantine borders and restrict travel between states, but only the states have the ability to mandate in their states and, even then, depending on their state constitutions, the legislatures can overrule a governor's mandate as they did in Kansas.

 

[GRT]

Here is some info that might go some way to explaining the situation.


More Americans may be wearing masks than early last spring, but other recommended behaviors to stop the pandemic's spread haven't kept pace, according to a new federal survey. And young people are the least likely to take needed steps to stop the virus, the data suggest.

The proportion of U.S. adults reporting wearing face masks increased from 78% in April to 89% in June, according to the nationally representative survey released by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday.

But the survey found either no change or a decline in other behaviors aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus, such as hand-washing, social distancing and avoiding public or crowded places.
Mask-Wearing Is Up In The U.S., But Young People Are Still Too Lax, CDC Survey Finds


The refusal to go along with expert health guidance has persisted even in parts of the country that are seeing soaring caseloads and hospitalizations. That was driven home this week when the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, Deborah Birx, toured North Dakota

What Birx witnessed dismayed her.

“Over the last 24 hours, as we were here and we were in your grocery stores and in your restaurants and frankly, even in your hotels, this is the least use of masks that we have seen in retail establishments of any place we have been”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...001546-1883-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html

I can definitely see that as being a big contributor to the surges we're seeing now.

I still say we need a national campaign, such as the one launched to keep folks from smoking -- using emotional appeal -- to change hearts and minds. It simply doesn't work to try and enforce rules that might help, but feel as though they're overbearing.

Plus, I think this virus is spreading in other ways.

 

[musicaljoke]

I truly hope that world leaders will listen to the consensus of the scientific community and not the outliers (who, more often than not IMO, have an agenda which is not that of prioritizing the public's health). MOO.

For sure. Many countries have excellent track records for their approval process that is at an arm's length from any government interference or competitive pressure, so I feel confident that we'll have a safe supply, at least here in Canada. But certainly there are some governments which have shown their hand at interfering with their public health system at every level, to the detriment of their people. Those countries are a concern.