Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #85

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Yesterday Colorado recorded over 2,000 new COVID cases for the first time ever, and hospitalizations haven’t been this high since mid-May. I won’t be surprised if we break State hospitalization records before Thanksgiving. (Source: New York Times)

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We know from this documentary about the 1918 flu that during the second and third waves, the virus mutated into a HORRIFIC, more severe strain, one where people were dead within hours after exposure, (eta: and ear drums exploding or something like that, iirc), etc.:


We know that to date, so far, knock on wood, with the exception of the more contagious strain, that the mutations have not accelerated wrt severity. Last I saw, there were well over 5,000 mutations which is common with viruses and to be expected, not worrisome at this time, and that all mutations are being monitored very closely by WHO, etc.

My question is this:

The first wave/strain of the 1918 flu affected YOUNG people. Why is this exactly? I understand how those who are elderly and have underlying health conditions are generally more affected with SARS CoV-2.

I guess my concern and thoughts today revolve around what if this virus mutates to severely affect the healthier, younger populations more, and what exactly is the science behind this. Is there even a possibility that this could happen.




Yes, I also transcribed/documented all her audio telebriefings, which should be available in the CDC thread, and/or earlier posts.


a guess answer to your Q: there was some previous virus similar to the 1918 flu that older people had gotten and had some immunity to...? ...and the younger folks had not been exposed to it? (guess...no facts)
 
Yesterday Colorado recorded over 2,000 new COVID cases for the first time ever, and hospitalizations haven’t been this high since mid-May. I won’t be surprised if we break State hospitalization records before Thanksgiving. (Source: New York Times)

View attachment 269946
View attachment 269947


Colorado could exceed April hospitalization peak in two weeks, new CDPHE data says




Mesa County Had One Of The Most Open Economies In Colorado. Then The New Coronavirus Wave Hit


(Eta: Furious. It didn’t have to be this way.)
 
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I am considering contacting one of our local TV stations see if they would
investigate this horror-- do you think it would do any good, or would i just
be spining my wheels? i never expected her to tell me nurses go between Covid
and regular patient rooms--i was stunned

this seems bad. I wonder if they did it to "equalize" the stress on the staff so that certain staff are not always exposed.
 
I know. Me too. Frankly, I’m surprised and disappointed Polis hasn’t enacted stricter precautions for the State like Denver’s mayor did earlier this week. This is getting to be a state-wide problem, not just Denver (and Adams county, the other county that moved back to safer at home level 3.
 
does anyone understand why the US and Europe are suddenly having such a big COVID resurgence? It is "more than 14 days" since schools started and "more than 14 days"since europe opened restaurants and businesses and "more than 14 days" since people were on summer holidays. I just do not understand it....unless it is the greater contagion with the newest strain? It is also in urban and rural places and in western (France, Belgium, Germany) and eastern (Czech Republic) countries.... do not think that I will ever understand this virus.
 
I know. Me too. Frankly, I’m surprised and disappointed Polis hasn’t enacted stricter precautions for the State like Denver’s mayor did earlier this week. This is getting to be a state-wide problem, not just Denver (and Adams county, the other county that moved back to safer at home level 3.

I expect it to happen soon. In fact, I imagine many parts of the country to be shutdown before long. Jmo.
 
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Wait a minute, I just had a thought, bouncing off the earlier discussion re: younger people and the 1918 flu.

Maybe younger people, including children, can and will possibly be more affected by contracting covid as we get into flu season. Here’s why...we don’t yet fully know what the effects of the co-lateral existence/infection of CV and influenza are going to be...so, IF the flu affects young people, then you add coronavirus...then there is the element of the less common post covid inflammatory syndromes in younger folks (MIS-C)...idk, something’s bugging me about all this.

True. I was only going by what is already known about CoVid.

Yes, the flu is about to rear its head too (although all our social distancing, closed schools, mask wearing, etc seem to be making this a low flu season, thankfully).

I would suspect that if a child did have the flu and then got CoVid, that would be bad bad news.

Another big aspect is that many people will not be able to tell the difference, so there will be a lot of worry and either people will go get tested (which would be a good thing) or they will dismiss it as "just the flu" (not a good thing).

We have a long way to go in the US on the road to actually valuing and promoting health, on many levels.
 
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the 5th Meeting of the IHR Emergency Committee on COVID-19
29 October 2020
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Professor Didier Houssin,

Emergency Committee Members and advisors,

Dear colleagues and friends,

Let me start by warmly welcoming you to the 5th meeting of the IHR Emergency Committee on COVID-19.

Since the Emergency Committee last met in July, many things have evolved, both for the positive and for the negative.

We know much more about the virus now. The epidemiological patterns and options for treatment are better understood.

We have gathered evidence and best-practices for breaking chains of transmission. We have learned to respond in a more targeted and tailored manner.

But we also face new challenges.

We are particularly concerned about issues of community engagement and the politization of the response.

This pandemic is far from over. We need to adjust all our efforts to be suitable for the long-run.

Strong leadership integrated in a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach will help to sustain a consistent and robust response.

Mental health must be an integral part of all response efforts.

In order to reflect variations in severity and epidemiology within and across countries and regions, it will be necessary to adopt appropriate indicators.

This includes ones to measure the burden on health systems and hospitals in particular.

This will allow for the review and refinement of measures based on science and thorough public health risk assessments.

Risk management is about taking actions based on available evidence through solidarity, transparency and in an inclusive manner.

Where certainty and evidence remain elusive, measures need to be evaluated regularly and actions course-corrected if necessary.

Addressing uncertainties and the socio-economic impact of measures will increase confidence in the people leading the response.

Basic epidemiological interventions such as contact tracing and surveillance remain the most critical and effective interventions that break chains of transmission.

But we also need to get better at engaging individuals and communities to support the COVID-19 response. This is key for any public health intervention, as we all know.

There are a number of areas that require further consideration, and I welcome your advice.

These include:

Establishing sustainable long-term response strategies.

Refining indicators for risk management.

Implementing time-limited public health, social and travel measures,

which are based on risk assessments and scientific evaluations.

Maintaining basic epidemiological interventions such as contact tracing and surveillance.

Addressing misinformation and infodemics.

Readying countries for the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines and avoiding vaccine nationalism.

And how countries can best report to WHO on their progress on implementing the temporary recommendations.

Of course we should not be restricted by this. Any additional ideas you have are welcome.

====

Dr Soce Fall and Dr Jaouad Mahjour will update you with the latest technical background and provide you with a detailed overview on the progress made on the recommendations from your last meeting.

WHO heavily relies on your advice and your external expert view.

I am proud and reassured to be able to draw on your expertise in these difficult times. Much gratitude for your continued support and help. I wish you a successful meeting.

I thank you. Merci beaucoup chair, and all members.
 
does anyone understand why the US and Europe are suddenly having such a big COVID resurgence? It is "more than 14 days" since schools started and "more than 14 days"since europe opened restaurants and businesses and "more than 14 days" since people were on summer holidays. I just do not understand it....unless it is the greater contagion with the newest strain? It is also in urban and rural places and in western (France, Belgium, Germany) and eastern (Czech Republic) countries.... do not think that I will ever understand this virus.

Several studies seem to indicate that it takes about 4-6 weeks after schools reopen for the adult rates to go up. The younger kids spread it readily, but with no symptoms. Then the teens get it (also mild, maybe 2 weeks later, in part through contact with younger kids who are completely asymptomatic - no one knows). A few teens who are tired and have colds? Not a big deal.

Then it hits their parents, teachers, parents' coworkers, grandparents, aunts, uncles, - etc. etc.

So it takes about 1-2 months after schools and indoor businesses reopen for the effects to be felt. Plus, of course, there's the weather - that's probably responsible for a 10% increase all by itself.

I'm not sure why you're focused on 14 days (that's the length of time after a positive test or an exposure that we have somewhat optimistically decided is the average length someone is transmitting - that's not the rate of transmission through a population).

Someone gets exposed, has no symptoms for two weeks, then has moderate symptoms, gets tested (it's now 3 weeks in - at that point the person may very well get super sick or even die). Meantime, people get infected by that person every day they have been out and about. They get their test results 2 days after the test - so more than 2 weeks after their own infection. They remain infectious for another 2 weeks (maybe less, maybe more - the longest record, I believe is 72 days).

At any rate, when the virus percolates through largely asymptomatic people (those 12 and under, let's say), it can burst on the scene a month later, as it ripples through an ever bigger pond.

There's a good article (scholar.google.com) whereby the authors show that if testing of children is done weekly (as it is in some nations - but not the US or Europe), that a bump up in infections among the 6-10 year olds predicts a bump up in teens about a month later, and then in the parent group two weeks later than that...
 
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 30 October 2020
30 October 2020
  • WHO is closely following the unfolding situation in Greece and Turkey after the earthquake today.
  • Over the past few months, I have heard first hand from people who face mid to long-term effects of COVID-19 infection. WHO will continue to do more research to establish best standards of care to accelerate recovery and prevent such complications.
  • The Emergency Committee on COVID-19 has just concluded a two day meeting where they discussed the way forward. The take home message is that it’s important for governments and citizens to keep focused on breaking the chains of transmission.
  • WHO continues to work to establish the origins of the virus to prevent future outbreaks. Today, a group of international experts had their first virtual meeting with their Chinese counterparts.
-----

“Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

I want to start by noting that WHO is closely following the unfolding situation in Greece and Turkey after the earthquake today.

We will work with the two countries to ensure that emergency medical care is provided to those in need.

Our thoughts are with all those affected.

===

Over the past few months, I have heard first hand from people who face mid to long-term effects of COVID-19 infection.

What’s really concerning is the vast spectrum of symptoms that fluctuate over time, often overlap and can affect any system in the body.

From fatigue, a cough and shortness of breath, to inflammation and injury of major organs - including the lungs and heart. And even neurological and psychologic effects.

Although we’re still learning about the virus, what’s clear is that this is not just a virus that kills people.

To a significant number of people, this virus poses a range of serious long-term effects.

While people do recover, it can be slow – sometimes weeks or months – and it is not always a linear route to recovery.

Though exact numbers of people experiencing the long-term affects are not yet clearly defined, post COVID-19 symptoms and complications have been reported in both non-hospitalised and hospitalised patients.

There have been cases in women and men, both young and old. And even in children.

WHO will continue to do more research to establish best standards of care to accelerate recovery and prevent such complications.

It is imperative that governments recognise the long-term effects of COVID-19 and also ensure access to health services to all of these patients.

This includes primary health care and when needed specialty care and rehabilitation.

I’d now like to hand over the floor to three patients who are still combatting the long-term effects of COVID-19 so that we can hear their stories.
First, Professor Paul Garner from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine who has himself been recovering from COVID-19 since March.

Paul the floor is yours.

===

Thank you so much Professor Garner for sharing your experience.

And now to Martha Sibanda, a nurse who is joining us from Jo’burg, South Africa. Marta, the floor is yours.

===

Thank you Martha for taking the time to share your experience with us.

I would now like to hear from Lyth Hishmeh from the United. Lyth is a member of Long COVID SOS, a patient advocacy group in the UK.

You have the Sir

===

Listening to Paul, Martha and Lyth share their experiences and array of symptoms, it really reinforces what a dangerous virus COVID-19 is.

Your stories underscore that those facing the long-term effects of the virus must be given the time and care they need to recover fully.

It also reinforces to me just how morally unconscionable and unfeasible the so called ‘natural herd immunity’ strategy is.

Not only would it lead to millions more unnecessary deaths, it would also lead to a significant number of people facing a long road to full recovery.

Herd immunity is only possible with safe and effective vaccines that are distributed equitably around the world.

And until we have a vaccine, governments and people must do all that they can to suppress transmission, which is the best way to prevent these post-COVID long-term consequences.

===

In that vein, the Emergency Committee on COVID-19 has just concluded a two day meeting where they discussed the way forward.

With global cases continuing to rise and some countries going in the wrong direction, the group has made a series of recommendations for WHO and Member States to act on.

The take home message is that it’s important for governments and citizens to keep focused on breaking the chains of transmission.

Governments should focus on tackling the virus and avoid politicisation.

No matter where they are in terms of the outbreak, they should keep investing in the health system and workforce and improving testing, tracing and treatment of all cases.

And there is light at the end of the tunnel.

As well as rapid tests and dexamethasone, several vaccines are now in final phase three trials.

If proved safe and effective they will be rolled out through the ACT Accelerator’s vaccine arm – the COVAX Facility, which is now supported by 186 countries.

I thank Lebanon and Botswana for joining recently.

The committee recommended that to prepare for new COVID-19 vaccines, WHO and governments must work closely to develop rollout strategies, train health workers and ensure clear communications with the general public about vaccination.

===
Just as we look forward with hope, WHO continues to work to establish the origins of the virus to prevent future outbreaks.

Today, a group of international experts had their first virtual meeting with their Chinese counterparts.

I joined to thank them and offer any and all support to ensure the success of their ongoing research.

From the long-term effects of COVID-19, to breaking the chains of transmission, to establishing the origins of the virus, WHO will continue to work in partnership across the world to drive science, solutions and solidarity.

I thank you“

—-

Full Conference here
 
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does anyone understand why the US and Europe are suddenly having such a big COVID resurgence? It is "more than 14 days" since schools started and "more than 14 days"since europe opened restaurants and businesses and "more than 14 days" since people were on summer holidays. I just do not understand it....unless it is the greater contagion with the newest strain? It is also in urban and rural places and in western (France, Belgium, Germany) and eastern (Czech Republic) countries.... do not think that I will ever understand this virus.
I can't say for everywhere else but my little state of Ohio had over 3800 new cases today. According to Governor Dewine the hospitals, health departments and doctors are saying the majority of cases are traced to weddings, funerals, birthday parties, friends and family gatherings. People are too comfortable with others they know and aren't practicing social distancing and wearing masks.
He said that there are cases traced to restaurants and bars and schools but not many.
 
Several studies seem to indicate that it takes about 4-6 weeks after schools reopen for the adult rates to go up. The younger kids spread it readily, but with no symptoms. Then the teens get it (also mild, maybe 2 weeks later, in part through contact with younger kids who are completely asymptomatic - no one knows). A few teens who are tired and have colds? Not a big deal.

Then it hits their parents, teachers, parents' coworkers, grandparents, aunts, uncles, - etc. etc.

So it takes about 1-2 months after schools and indoor businesses reopen for the effects to be felt. Plus, of course, there's the weather - that's probably responsible for a 10% increase all by itself.

I'm not sure why you're focused on 14 days (that's the length of time after a positive test or an exposure that we have somewhat optimistically decided is the average length someone is transmitting - that's not the rate of transmission through a population).

Someone gets exposed, has no symptoms for two weeks, then has moderate symptoms, gets tested (it's now 3 weeks in - at that point the person may very well get super sick or even die). Meantime, people get infected by that person every day they have been out and about. They get their test results 2 days after the test - so more than 2 weeks after their own infection. They remain infectious for another 2 weeks (maybe less, maybe more - the longest record, I believe is 72 days).

At any rate, when the virus percolates through largely asymptomatic people (those 12 and under, let's say), it can burst on the scene a month later, as it ripples through an ever bigger pond.

There's a good article (scholar.google.com) whereby the authors show that if testing of children is done weekly (as it is in some nations - but not the US or Europe), that a bump up in infections among the 6-10 year olds predicts a bump up in teens about a month later, and then in the parent group two weeks later than that...

focused on the 14 days because that is the "quarantine period" during which an exposed person would ordinarily become symptomatic and get a positive result if tested.... you seem to be saying that younger children do transmit virus but it takes longer.... maybe they just express less viral particles? I have not seen any different quarantine periods for different ages and I get your point that if children are asymptomatic, in the US, they would not be routinely tested or quarantined... I also thought that the 72 days was an "off-the-charts" outlier- and that commonly people get symptoms within 5 days.

[COVID-19 alert
Common question

How long does it take for the coronavirus disease symptoms to start showing?

Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus.May 13, 2020

Symptoms of Coronavirus | CDC
www.cdc.gov › 2019-ncov › symptoms-testing › symptoms

For informational purposes only. Consult your local medical authority for health advice.

How long does it take for COVID-19 (coronavirus) symptoms ...
www.medicalnewstoday.com › articles › how-long-doe...

Jun 17, 2020 — How long do symptoms take to appear? The incubation period is the time between the exposure to a virus or bacteria and the appearance of ...
What are the early symptoms ... · ‎What to know about COVID-19 ...

Coronavirus Incubation Period: How Long Before Symptoms ...
www.healthline.com › health › coronavirus-incubation-...

Mar 13, 2020 — An incubation period is the time period between when you catch a virus and when your symptoms start. The incubation period for the novel ...
Treatments for the Coronavirus · ‎How Long Does the ... · ‎Think You Have the ...

How long does it take for symptoms of COVID-19 to show up?
www.webmd.com › ... › Coronavirus

symptoms for covid-19 can start as early as 2 days and as long as 14 days after you are exposed. analysis of data from china shows that the average time ...]
 
True. I was only going by what is already known about CoVid.

Yes, the flu is about to rear its head too (although all our social distancing, closed schools, mask wearing, etc seem to be making this a low flu season, thankfully).

I would suspect that if a child did have the flu and then got CoVid, that would be bad bad news.

Another big aspect is that many people will not be able to tell the difference, so there will be a lot of worry and either people will go get tested (which would be a good thing) or they will dismiss it as "just the flu" (not a good thing).

We have a long way to go in the US on the road to actually valuing and promoting health, on many levels.

Thanks, as always, for your responses and insight.

The more I think about this, the more this is potentially worrisome. I had another thought connected to all this, which further potentially supports these concerns, but I forgot what it was. :D Hopefully it comes back to me.

Here’s another thought, perhaps weird to some, and resistance wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m again thinking about, due to the increasing exponential spread, the potential of increased viral loads in indoor settings as a result of more infected people who may be asymptomatic and/or presymptomatic. I had mentioned in a previous post that I was wondering about if this does in fact contribute to an overall higher viral load in the air in any given indoor setting, particularly grocery stores and restaurants - I don’t know know why it wouldn’t: I would think that if you have a higher percentage of infected people releasing respiratory droplets into the common air space, then you would have an equal percentage of increased viral load in the air.

Anyway, now the thought just hit me that all these droplets, will, well, drop lol. So, maaaaybe that means potentially increased viral loads on objects as well? And people are also touching these things in the store...yeah, yeah, I sound crazy to some, so be it, I am crazy, no news there, my point is we know the virus is certainly transmitted via breathing in droplets, but surface transmission is not off the table, though it may not appear as commonly. I wouldn’t take any chances and would be sure that, if you do touch things, really make sure to use sanitizer and wash hands very thoroughly and immediately before you get a chance to touch your face, even if one may be skeptical of surface transmission, jmo. I realize this is 101, but better safe than sorry imo and again I’m just thinking about potentially increased viral loads which would equivocate to a possibly increased risk, idk, moo. Complacency can occur, and imo this is the time for the opposite which is to double down. Again, I also wonder about those people who don’t wear masks, go to gatherings, etc...how seriously do they go to the extra length of washing their hands when necessary, respiratory etiquette, etc.?

Just thoughts, jmo. I am under the impression that those who participate in these threads do wear masks and are cognizant of hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette, but it’s the other people’s disregard and ambivalence one has to be cautious about, and guard against...it’s like “defensive driving”...

Speaking of surface transmission and hand hygiene, I live near a dog park area. There is a poopy bag station. The disposal can has a stainless handle. Every day, all day, often several times per hour, I see people lift the stainless steel can lid with their bare hand, then just go right about their business, often to touch their mask/face/leash handle, etc. soon after, no sanitizer...It’s hard to be aware of everything all the time I realize, and one can make mistakes. I just wonder how much surface transmission actually does play a role. That’s a hard thing to identify/track and find an answer to, I would think. In my instance, considering I have ZERO contact with people and do not leave the house, then if I were to get covid, I would know the only way I could’ve gotten it would be via surface transmission. But not everyone can or does take these extreme measures, and therefore would likely have trouble tracking infection via surface transmission if it was surface transmission.
 
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With no (or few) control measures in place, of course the virus was going to blow out.

The virus still has 319,120,000 hosts in the US to contaminate.

"We can't lockdown, we can't close our state borders, too many of us can't wear masks, we can't not have a 4th of July bash, we can't not have a Labor Day bash, we can't not have a birthday party for Jillie and Johnnie, we can't not go to Florida this summer, we can't not go to the pub this weekend, we can't we can't ..... "

It was a flame licking at each state's feet, now it is ramping up to a blazing inferno. And it is not even quite there yet.

Even in my country, where we try to be so vigilant, where we contact trace and isolate better than most, we still have little outbreaks that we must quickly stomp upon ... little fires near a pile of paper that must quickly be squelched before the whole pile goes up in flames. It is a thing we must constantly watch, must try our best not to be complacent.

Heck, we aren't even having New Years Eve fireworks in much (all?) of my state, and we have had 4 deaths from the virus, less than 500 cases all up (and most of them were returning citizens who caught the virus overseas).
Are we complaining? No. Because this is the small price we must pay at the moment for our health and our safe freedom.

It is way past time to do something strong, but it is never too late to mitigate some damage. If only everyone would comply. If only everyone would try.

IMO
 
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RS&BBM
Re the civil unrest issue, I was concerned about that early on, when we had shutdowns and people were losing their jobs. But now I'm more concerned than ever.

I'll look for your comments in the grocery thread.

I laughed at this: I’ve got more exercise equipment to stare at and pile clothes on.
If I had any exercise equipment, I'm sure it would be used to pile clothes on!

Thanks for your many valuable contributions to this and other threads, Margarita. Stay well this winter. I hope we all will.

Thank you so much, anneg. I still owe you one for advising me not to get up on that ladder lol.

You know, I honestly really thought in the early days that we were only going to be here for a few months, meaning I thought we were going to band together and knock this sucker out, just as we saw other countries do in real time. Why wouldn’t we?

How wrong I was. It was apparent what was happening as things started to unfold, but never in my wildest dreams did I imagine when this all first went down that we would have gotten here, to this point where we are now. I never could have imagined that so many people would be more concerned about a damn mask than people’s lives. All the denyin’, conspiracies, disrespect, hostility and flat out suppression by some towards science and medical professionals who to try to help save lives and provide facts and guidance to the best of their abilities at the time, outright superspreading, violence towards innocent people in stores, ETC. ETC. ETC. Just unbelievable. What a shame. I had noooo idea so many people didn’t care about other people and were so selfish, and brainwashed. It’s a heartbreaking and infuriating realization, one I’m not sure I’ll ever get over, frankly.
 
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I can't say for everywhere else but my little state of Ohio had over 3800 new cases today. According to Governor Dewine the hospitals, health departments and doctors are saying the majority of cases are traced to weddings, funerals, birthday parties, friends and family gatherings. People are too comfortable with others they know and aren't practicing social distancing and wearing masks.
He said that there are cases traced to restaurants and bars and schools but not many.
Yes but how many of those wedding/family gatherings, etc were a problem because some attending adult had been infected by a non-symptomatic child who contracted it at school?
 
Coronavirus: PM considering England lockdown next week

Well looks like here we go again in England.

Why on earth they didnt do this a couple of weeks ago, to cover the half term school break!

It's obviously needed. I'm just wondering what the plan will be in terms of getting people paid (because that's part of my job).
Sending moral support from Ireland! We're a week and a half into our latest national lockdown. It hasn't felt quite as restrictive as the spring one and numbers are finally going in the right direction now...

Ireland one of four EU countries where 7-day rate down

Latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ireland is one of only four countries in Europe where the seven-day incidence rate of Covid-19 has decreased compared to last week.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has said Ireland's progress is encouraging but fragile, and effort is needed to make it last.

The weekly figures from the WHO show the seven-day rate here decreased by 36% this week.

Twenty-four other European countries recorded a rise in the corresponding rate.

Ireland is also 20th out of 28 European countries in terms of rate, meaning only eight other countries have a lower seven-day incidence of the virus.

HSE Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry told last night's briefing at the Department of Health that the deteriorating situation in Europe was being looked at with apprehension here.

He said progress was fragile and Ireland was only ever a few weeks away from healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

However at the moment, all key indicators are starting to look more positive for the country.

There is an overall decline in case numbers, the R number now stands at around one, and confirmed cases now have fewer close contacts.

(More at link)
 
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