Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #88

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Rapid testing could 'drive the epidemic toward extinction'

States Begin Detailing Specific Use of 150 Million BinaxNOW COVID-19 Tests Distributed by Trump Administration
Scaling-Up Rapid Point of Care Testing Key to Protecting Seniors, Sustaining Ongoing State Reopening Efforts

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Abbott's BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag Card kit. (Abbott Labs)

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Lucira rapid test. (Lucira)

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A traveler is tested for COVID-19 at Los Angeles International Airport on
November 17th. Some airlines have begun to offer rapid testing at gates to keep their aircraft from becoming transmission sites.

WASHINGTON — Cheap coronavirus tests that ordinary Americans can administer at home, without either a prescription or any medical expertise, could significantly drive down infection rates, say researchers from the University of Colorado and Harvard. Their findings counter long-standing concerns that rapid tests are less accurate than those that are sent to laboratories.

Those inaccuracies become effectively inconsequential if enough rapid tests are done with sufficient frequency, their statistical models indicate.

Fast turnaround time is absolutely critical because stopping transmission requires telling people they’re infected early, so they can protect the people around them.”

If we could have 10 to 20 million of these tests every single day across all of America, that would be enough to stop the outbreaks across the United States in just a few weeks time, without the need for onerous statewide and citywide lockdowns.

That is because those rapid tests would catch many people who may be infectious but are not actually sick. About 30 percent of people show no signs of the virus at all but are still capable of spreading it.

The nation does not have anywhere near the capacity for rapid testing that advocates of the method believe is necessary. The Trump administration has started distributing 150 million rapid BinaxNOW tests. So far, about 63 million of those tests have been shipped either to governors or directly to sites like nursing homes. But many more tests would be needed for the kind of daily volume Mina envisions.
 
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JaneEyre said:
I don't get shortening quarantine just when state health departments are saturating social media with this.

It's just going to confuse people now that this timeline has been drilled in. And it is making an impact. I've seen this and other versions of it shared by a huge percentage of my friends across the US.

I'm not comfortable with a shortened quarantine.
Click to expand...

I am not comfortable with it either (until I see some data).
 
Muni operator dies of COVID-19 complications
The operator's family has requested privacy and the operator's name was not released. This employee had been on long-term leave before the pandemic began and had not come into contact with anyone in recent months.

Tumlin reported that 90 SFMTA employees have tested positive for COVID-19 during the pandemic and he said that the majority of those only experienced moderate symptoms. Anyone identified as being in close contact with someone with COVID-19 is instructed to quarantine and not return to work until after following CDC protocol.

Tumlin also reminded employees that due to the pandemic, staying at home this holiday is encouraged. "I don't mean to be the grinch, but this also means we can't have any in-person holiday work gatherings this year," Tumlin said.

Muni operator union president Roger Marenco also expressed sympathies to the family of the Muni operator.

Muni has put in place extra precautions since early on in the pandemic, including frequently sanitizing vehicles and high-touch surfaces, as well as skipping stops if vehicles become too crowded.

Muni operator dies of COVID-19 complications
 
El Paso County, Texas, has ordered a new curfew starting Thanksgiving eve as it continues to grapple with rising Covid-19 cases and so many deaths that 10 additional morgue units have been brought in to accommodate the surge.

The situation is so dire that 1,500 additional medical professionals and the National Guard have been deployed to help.

The curfew took effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday and will run from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. until November 30, El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego announced at a Tuesday afternoon news conference.

"We need to do everything possible to avoid the perfect storm," Samaniego said. "I will use every tool that I have such as issuing a curfew to slow the spread of this virus. We're now cautiously anticipating the outcome of Thanksgiving. Black Friday, Christmas, New Year's, and the terrifying effects of the flu season."

El Paso issues a curfew ahead of Thanksgiving as it continues to fight a surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths
 
MimosaMornings said:
Will the COVID-19 pandemic kill Black Friday this year?

That picture is concerning. Why would you even stand in line this Friday if you can buy it online from the safety of your own home?


Here's why you shouldn't go to the store on Black Friday
Click to expand...

It looks awful, which is why I never shop in-store sales. I can’t stand crowds at best, and with coronavirus no way! Maybe some people have to have the instant gratification of carrying the purchase home with them. There isn’t much I need instantly. I love getting packages delivered.
 
I’m trying to figure out when the Thanksgiving surge will happen.
People who flew out Sunday could start feeling it this week, but will probably tough it out until they get home, rather than get tested and have to quarantine in place and not travel. So they could infect family and fellow fliers and feel pretty sick the first week of December.

The ones who caught it from family on Thanksgiving probably won’t feel much until they get home. But they too can infect whoever they contact while flying.
Some of these will be asymptomatic and never get sick or get it mildly and spread it.

The ones who get really sick will probably start to need hospitalizations about Dec. 7, except for granny who needed to be hospitalized a week after her grandkids visited.

So keep an eye on the week of Dec. 7, worsening the following two weeks. And this is just for the travelers. I didn’t even factor in those who stayed home but had larger groups than allowed in for dinner. December is looking really ugly.

All of this could have been prevented if people had cooperated and stayed home. But that’s no fun. :mad:
JMO
 
Lilibet said:
I’m trying to figure out when the Thanksgiving surge will happen.
People who flew out Sunday could start feeling it this week, but will probably tough it out until they get home, rather than get tested and have to quarantine in place and not travel. So they could infect family and fellow fliers and feel pretty sick the first week of December.

The ones who caught it from family on Thanksgiving probably won’t feel much until they get home. But they too can infect whoever they contact while flying.
Some of these will be asymptomatic and never get sick or get it mildly and spread it.

The ones who get really sick will probably start to need hospitalizations about Dec. 7, except for granny who needed to be hospitalized a week after her grandkids visited.

So keep an eye on the week of Dec. 7, worsening the following two weeks. And this is just for the travelers. I didn’t even factor in those who stayed home but had larger groups than allowed in for dinner. December is looking really ugly.

All of this could have been prevented if people had cooperated and stayed home. But that’s no fun. :mad:
JMO
Click to expand...

Yup, and this fits exactly what Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have seen from their travels around the country.

Dr. Fauci Says Most People Did This Before Catching COVID

"...they are now seeing new infections less in the big gatherings than in family gatherings, friends getting together, eight to 10 people for dinner, in a social gathering in which they feel well, 'We know everybody here. We may not need to wear a mask, we may not need to get tested.'

We need to know about the asymptomatic spread, there are asymptomatic people out there innocently and unwittingly
infecting others..."

So much more widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals is going to be very important as we enter and go into these months of indoor type gatherings."

But asymptomatic people don't go for testing unless they know they were directly exposed to a person with the virus. The only way to get asymptomatic
people to test is to have cheap convenient home tests with quick results which I posted about earlier.

Imagine how great it would be if everyone could test themselves and their kids every single week from the convenience of their own home with affordable tests that give quick results.

Then these people with no symptoms can stay away from others. Not all would, they don't now, but I think the majority would isolate to make a huge difference.
 
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YouTube said it suspended right-wing channel One America News for one week, beginning Tuesday, for violating its policy against misinformation related to the covid-19 pandemic and temporarily stripped the channel of its ability to make money from other videos.

YouTube spokeswoman Ivy Choi said OAN, which has 1.2 million subscribers on the video service and sees some of its posts reach hundreds of thousands of viewers, violated the policy against portraying a covid-19 remedy as a cure for the illness that has killed more than 258,000 Americans and 1.4 million people worldwide.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/24/you-tube-suspends-oann/
 
.

Sweden’s top epidemiologist admits immunity isn’t slowing down second wave like he had predicted


The architect of Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy predicted in May that the country would have a high level of immunity by the fall and be protected against a second wave — something that has not come to pass, he admitted on Tuesday.

“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now.”

Sweden has reported record numbers of new coronavirus infections this month, proving that the country has not been able to avoid the second surge of infections that is afflicting most of Europe.

Tegnell also suggested in May that other Nordic countries such as Finland that were quick to impose lockdowns would have to do so again in the fall. But exactly the opposite has happened: Thanks to strict border policies, Finland and Norway have largely been able to avoid a second surge of infections while allowing normal activities such as concerts and indoor dining to continue.
 
Looks like all the airlines who belong to the International Air Transport Association will likely go with a covid vaccine requirement for international travel (despite what our whacky and always-controversial Qld Senator in the article says).



The International Air Transport Association, a global group with membership of nearly all of the world’s biggest airlines, also made the case for vaccines in tourism on Tuesday.

The association said it was close to finalising a ‘digital health pass’, which would carry vaccination proof for passengers, which it called the “key to reopening borders safely”.

Dr Beirman expects Qantas would be only the first airline to expressly commit to vaccine rules.

“If Qantas is doing it, every IATA airline will do the same … I think the majority of the airlines, all IATA and majority of non-IATA,” he said.

Dr Beirman said he also expected many travel insurance companies to refuse coverage to tourists who don’t get a COVID shot.

Pauline Hanson coronavirus vaccine stance: 'I won't get it'
 
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Dr. Campbell reviews his third vaccine, Oxford/Astrazeca (viral vector, weakened attenuated version, chimpanzee common cold adenovirus). As someone here stated, this vaccine may be contraindicated for some? (as opposed to Moderna and Pfizer which are mRNA fragments)

Refresher, this is the one where there were two efficacy points 90% with the 1/2 dose first followed by full dose, and 62% efficacy when both doses were full doses.

He speaks to this is the best conducted studies as they did ongoing PCR weekly testing for surveillance (Moderna/Pfizer did not-they only did when symptoms) to pick up asymptomatic in addition to symptomatics.

He likes this vaccine because no hospitalizations were reported in participants receiving the vaccine, storage at normal refrigerator temps, and this one is $3/dose! (Unlike Moderna and Pfizer, this vaccine comes with a "no-profit pledge" during the pandemic).

He also likes the huge supply capacity and agreements already for 3 Billion doses worldwide, and expects this will be the most popular one in the world. (UK ordered 100 million doses, US 300 million, India producing 1 billion for poorer countries)

Oxfordcapacity.JPG
Press release: AZD1222 vaccine met primary efficacy endpoint in preventing COVID-19
Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32466-1/fulltext

Interesting info. The 1/2 dose was 25 Billion viral particles.

 
14:11 minute video comparing the 3 vaccines.

Most we know, some were ah ha moments.. e.g.
  1. Since this is a DNA virus, takes longer for immunity as has to get into nucleus and then back out to make RNA, vs. Moderna and Pfizer which inject the strands and begin as RNA.
  2. As I noted above with Dr. Campbell, he thinks it's a huge deal that they were doing swabbing and PCR's during the testing vs. Pfizer and Moderna only did symptoms in their determination of efficacy (therefore better, perhaps misleading results *cough cough* that MSM is highlighting) In other words, they were looking for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.... viral shedding (and transmission to other people may occur even if disease does not develop)
  3. He also, as did Dr. Campbell, say it's a headscratcher that the 50%/100% did better.
  4. The country of UK is the only country that did the 1/2 dose first (by error). The USA and perhaps others are going to move forward to change to 1/2 dose first for remainder of folks coming into studies.
  5. He also gives Kudos that this vaccine will be sold at cost during pandemic (vs. Moderna and Pfizer $$$ and making profit)
  6. Since 50% may be the way to go, the vaccine can be spread further. e.g. the 3 Billion doses could turn into 4.5 Billion doses of manufacturing capacity.


Coronavirus Update 118: AstraZeneca DNA COVID 19 Vaccine Explained (vs. Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna)
 
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