Coronavirus - Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #3

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It just seems odd that he was healthy enough to give a comprehensive interview, about 20 days after showing symptoms but a week later he’s suddenly dead?

Whats the progression of this disease? This article states that “some patients who at first appeared mildly or moderately ill then took a turn for the worse several days or even a week into their illness. The median time from their first symptoms to when they became short of breath was five days; to hospitalization, seven days; and to severe breathing trouble, eight days. Experts say that pattern means patients must be carefully monitored, and it is not safe to assume that someone who seems to be doing well early on is out of the woods.”

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So he was 20 days into his illness when he gave that NY Times interview. Not 8 days. And then he died a week later.

He had it for almost a month. Isn’t it true that they die within the first 10-15 days if they’re going to die?
The timing for him sure is counter isn’t it?

of course this can be explained...

He was on the front line. Luckily he didn’t get it late November/early December when he first noticed sick patients. You know, when he probably wasn’t taking extra precautions like a face mask and goggles.
 
So the number of new cases has gone down a bit- but does that really tell us it’s “stabilizing”?? Wouldn’t we assume the number of new cases would go down since they are locking people in their apartments, fumigating the streets, and hauling the sick to mass quarantine?

I anticipate some news outlets/governments to claim how it’s good news that the new cases are decreasing so “Phwew, looks like they’ve reached a peak“, but I’m not finding the new cases number to be at all reassuring.

MOO.

I don't know if the fifteen thousand people going into quarantine centres in the past couple of days is accurate, but if it was, then how many of their tests have been processed?

And those of the 'rounded up' people who are infected with the new coronavirus, then you'd have to go back to their homes in a week's time to see if someone else in the family was newly infected and not symptomatic on the last visit?

Yes, it's a method that ought to restrict the Ro rate, but I would be surprised if it's already having a major effect.

And meantime, what'a happening with figures outside of Hubei? What's happening in countries that epidemiologists are surprised as they seem to be showing 'too few' cases and are concerned that it's not being recognised there and contacts identified and isolated?

I don't mean to be negative about this, I just want to be realistic about it.
 
China scientists identify pangolin as possible coronavirus host

The deadly coronavirus outbreak in China could have spread from bats to humans through the illegal traffic of pangolins, the world’s only scaly mammals, which are prized in Asia for food and medicine, Chinese researchers said.

The pangolin is one of Asia’s most trafficked mammals, although protected by international law, because its meat is considered a delicacy in countries such as China and its scales are used in traditional medicine, the World Wildlife Fund says.

“This latest discovery will be of great significance for the prevention and control of the origin (of the virus),” South China Agricultural University, which led the research.

The outbreak, which has killed 636 people in mainland China, is believed to have started in a market in the city of Wuhan, in central Hubei province that also sold live wild animals.

But Dirk Pfeiffer, professor of veterinary medicine at Hong Kong’s City University, cautioned that the study was still a long way from proving pangolins had transmitted the virus.

“You can only draw more definitive conclusions if you compare prevalence (of the coronavirus) between different species based on representative samples, which these almost certainly are not,” he said.

Even then, a link to humans via food markets still needs to be established, Pfeiffer added.

I hadn’t even heard of a “pangolin” before. More articles on this:

Could pangolins be a piece of the coronavirus puzzle?

  • Chinese researchers say a virus found in the animal is a 99 per cent genetic match to the one that has killed hundreds of people in China
—-

Pangolins are possible coronavirus hosts, scientists say

—-

https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/endan...d-coronavirus-outbreak-china-researchers-say/

—-
(ETA: I’ll pass on this video myself, it’s a National Geographic video, posting for anyone who may be interested in watching this.)

Pangolins: The Most Trafficked Mammal You've Never Heard Of | National Geographic / May 2018

 
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I have no idea how I'd feel about this. It seems like it's basically the safest possible exposure. Everyone is accounted for, quarantined, monitored and only released after repeat negative tests. And there is no mingling with the population. I'm more concerned about people who are possible unknown carriers. At the same time I can imagine it's still a stressful situation. I wonder just how many of these are going to pop up unawares to the local populace.

I understand your view.

One of our local MP’s ( Member of Parliament) explains community concern as follows:

“State member for Scenic Rim Jon Krause was in Kooralbyn today and said it was poor form on the government's part that residents of Kooralbyn found out about the arrangement from the business involved in the transaction and not from a government representative.

"People are understandably concerned- and this was unloaded on them at 9pm on a Friday night by the resort and on Facebook," he said.

"I've been contacted today by dozens of people in Kooralbyn, some whom have children with compromised immune systems and who moved to the area to feel safe.

Mr Krause called on the government to abandon any plans to house people at increased risk for developing novel coronavirus symptoms.

"Firstly, Kooralbyn is nowhere near a tertiary hospital where they can be treated if they do become ill," he said.

"The Chinese football team successfully isolated at a hotel in a larger centre proves it can be done, so why transport these people to a completely different district?"
State MP confirms quarantine arrangements for Kooralbyn resort
BBM
 
Official death toll now 805 people - Sky News U.K

Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS: Virus Update

BBM:
“The coronavirus disease spreading around the world has killed 805 people, exceeding the death toll from the global outbreak of SARS that started in China almost two decades ago.

—-
ETA: Iirc the MERS death toll was around 850 MOO (looking for link, I thought this was the figure on a video I saw)- we may pass that death toll as well, moo.

WHO EMRO | MERS outbreaks | MERS-CoV | Health topics

CDC:
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)

-still looking for official death toll of MERS
 
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This is interesting about the cruise ship. I have been watching issues with cruise ships, one that had to be evacuated due to a crash, a rampant food poisoning/norovirus on another, now, this quarantine. Yet another reason why I just have decided to not go on cruises.

It has never been in my interest to take a cruise since Norovirus, and nor will it ever be I don’t think, JMO.
 
If comparing with the common flu, it's often not the flu itself that kills the patients, it's the complications following the flu, for example pneumonia, or a person may get a myocarditis or pericarditis (inflammation of the heart) which can kill after the flu is over. https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-complications

Yeah. Could be. But I’m trying to compare it with itself. At least what I can find this far.
 
It has never been in my interest to take a cruise since Norovirus, and nor will it ever be I don’t think, JMO.

I wonder if a lot of people who have reservations for cruises have cancelled their plans. Honestly, I wouldn't want to go on a cruise ship now, and be potentially stuck because several people came down with a disease.

Sounds like a giant "Chicken Pox Party". Fun. Not.
 
I wonder if a lot of people who have reservations for cruises have cancelled their plans. Honestly, I wouldn't want to go on a cruise ship now, and be potentially stuck because several people came down with a disease.

Sounds like a giant "Chicken Pox Party". Fun. Not.

Oh I’m sure the cruise line industry is taking a beating, jmo.
 
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I wonder if a lot of people who have reservations for cruises have cancelled their plans. Honestly, I wouldn't want to go on a cruise ship now, and be potentially stuck because several people came down with a disease.

Sounds like a giant "Chicken Pox Party". Fun. Not.


If I had a cruise booked I would totally cancel it.

Hell at the moment I don’t even want to fly on planes as it only takes one infected passenger to wipe out a plane with the way germs spread.

IMO
 
Update on the Royal Caribbean ship docked in Bayonne, NJ on Friday. 4 people are still hospitalized waiting for results and the next cruise on this ship, which was supposed to leave Friday but was pushed to Saturday, is now not sailing until Monday. Seems they can’t leave until the results are of these 4 passengers.

New Details After 27 In NJ Tested For Coronavirus; 4 In Hospital
 
If I had a cruise booked I would totally cancel it.

Hell at the moment I don’t even want to fly on planes as it only takes one infected passenger to wipe out a plane with the way germs spread.

IMO

I would too. Call me paranoid, or whatever, but if I had paid for a cruise, I would cancel it too. I just read an article that people who have a fever, a Chinese passport, or have been to China in the last 15 days cannot go on a cruise

Even with those precautions, it just wouldn't be worth it to me. I actually don't like to travel any longer.
 
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