I would agree with you whole-heartedly were it not for what Chief posted up there on #306. The locals usually have better access to insider information. The two texts about "I'm out" and the following response also raise a couple of question marks. Sometimes we just have to try and read between the lines.
I agree with Chief that the locals have flooded the surrounding area with searchers.......reported to be hundreds of them since he went missing..........and yet nobody has come across a single thing. You have a 150# male, and a 200# bright red motorcycle, neither of which can be located. I could see the kid, if badly injured, trying to find a good sheltered spot in order to protect himself from the elements. That would basically mean he is "in hiding". However, the same wouldn't apply to the bike, it should be highly visible. Even if somewhat muddy and dirty, that bright red Honda plastic is going to reflect the light really well. The fact that the bike itself hasn't been found is just as much a part of the mystery. It's always possible that he went downhill into a ravine or a creek-bed, had an accident, and both he and the bike are being concealed by the tree shroud and surrounding vegetation. That would mainly apply to an aerial search though, not so much a ground level foot search.
About all I can say in regards to the drug angle is..............somebody in that community would know who he gets it from, most likely his close friends and buddies. Kids talk, kids brag, kids boast. That's another avenue that could be explored by LE......previous texts days and weeks before his disappearance. I agree with you though, drug dealers don't normally kill off their customers over a couple hundred bucks. It's bad for future business, and no drug dealer wants LE snooping around and asking a bunch of questions.......ever.