Egypt Air flight 804 missing, 19 May 2016

[gregjrichards]

What are your thoughts if this is indeed terrorism is the plane more likely to have been shot down or a bomb have been placed on board the plane at the airport in Paris? If a bomb has been placed on board in Paris it has massive implications for air travel in Europe and worldwide. If the plane has been shot down there needs to be an immediate review of which airspace planes can fly over.

 

[MathildaM]

Jean-Paul Troadec, former president of the French air accident investigation bureau (BEA) was asked by Europe 1 to speculate on what caused the plane’s disappearance.
He said:
“We have to remain very careful after the disappearance from the radars of the EgyptAir aircraft. The priority is to begin the investigation and to find, if possible, debris from the aircraft and eventually, the site of the wreckage. We can make certain hypotheses...there’s a strong possibility of an explosion on board from a bomb or a suicide bomber. The idea of a technical accident when weather conditions were good, seems also possible but not that likely. We could also consider a missile, which is what happened to the Malaysia Airlines aircraft in July 2014.
“If the crew didn’t send an alert signal, it’s because what happened was very sudden. A problem with an engine or a technical fault, would not produce an immediate accident. In this case, the crew did not react, which makes us think of a bomb.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

 

[MathildaM]

Confirmation the plane has crashed:

A translation from BBC of what President Hollande said:


"It was feared that this plane had crashed. The information that we have managed to gather confirm alas that this plane has crashed, and it has disappeared. 66 passengers were on board, including the crew and security personnel. Among the passengers there were 15 French citizens. A crisis cell was actioned immediately.

Alongside the Egyptian authorities we are making sure that all the families should be informed during this test. Our thoughts and solidarity and compassion are with them.

We have a duty to know everything about the causes of what happened. No hypothesis should be ruled out. Everything should be put at the disposal of the Greek and Egyptian authorities so that we can liaise with them. We have to send them ships and planes to find where the plane crashed, and to do whatever we can to collect the debris. That will allow us to find the truth.

It could be a terrorist hypothesis but at this stage we should express our solidarity to the families and to find out the cause of the catastrophe.

We will find the truth."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates


So very sad for everyone involved.

Egypt is likely to not want to admit if it was terrorism as they this might be the final blow to their struggling tourism industry. Maybe someone could advise, I think it is the country the crash occurred in (likely Greece) who leads the investigation and the nationality of air-liner (Egypt) and manufacturer (France) are also heavily involved.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

We could also consider a missile, which is what happened to the Malaysia Airlines aircraft in July 2014.

If this was a missile it would be a major escalation, not least because the plane was at 37,000 feet and still some 250 miles from the Egyptian coast. That would mean the Islamists in Libya had missiles with a range of hundreds of miles and could pose a danger to flights in that region of the Med flying over and south of Crete.

 

[MargeGunderson]

Egypt is likely to not want to admit if it was terrorism as they this might be the final blow to their struggling tourism industry. Maybe someone could advise, I think it is the country the crash occurred in (likely Greece) who leads the investigation and the nationality of air-liner (Egypt) and manufacturer (France) are also heavily involved.

The stories I'm seeing say it crashed in Egyptian airspace. If this is the case, I think it gives Egypt the primary control of the investigation. This is concerning because as a previous poster pointed out, Egypt does not have a good track record of honesty when it comes to terror investigations. Hopefully there will be enough information available to other nations for the truth to be known, whatever the truth might be.

 

[gregjrichards]

Are planes currently checked for bombs before they fly out if they left airports like Cairo earlier in the day? I wish this could be done but I know planes sometimes only have a 30 minute turnaround time between flights so I don't know if it could be implemented.

Yes Egypt heading the investigation is very concerning. All nations with passengers onboard should be equally involved.

 

[DanceCard]

What are your thoughts if this is indeed terrorism is the plane more likely to have been shot down or a bomb have been placed on board the plane at the airport in Paris? If a bomb has been placed on board in Paris it has massive implications for air travel in Europe and worldwide. If the plane has been shot down there needs to be an immediate review of which airspace planes can fly over.

greg, I've just read the latest information from Greek ATC and I admit that at ths moment I'm flummoxed by this one. I usually am able to form an opinion quite early on. Hopefully things will become more clear later today but right now I'm not happy putting forward any theories about this one.
Completely agree with you that if this plane has come down because of security lapse/s at CDG then this will have tremendous implications for air travel. CDG is a major international hub.

 

[MathildaM]

QUOTE If this was a missile it would be a major escalation, not least because the plane was at 37,000 feet and still some 250 miles from the Egyptian coast. That would mean the Islamists in Libya had missiles with a range of hundreds of miles and could pose a danger to flights in that region of the Med flying over and south of Crete.

Sadly, it might depend on who detonated the missile, not much has happened about MH17 in terms of bringing any person or country to justice.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Sadly, it might depend on who detonated the missile, not much has happened about MH17 in terms of bringing any person or country to justice.

MH17 was flying over what was effectively a war zone and was brought down by a missile supplied by the Russians to their allies in the rebel held eastern Ukraine. While the plane was flying at cruising altitude, it was flying geographically fairly close to where the missile was launched from. In this new incident the plane was not only at cruising altitude over the open sea, but hundreds of miles from anywhere on land Islamists could have launched a missile from. That would mean they have access to much more powerful armaments than has previously been assumed.

 

[MathildaM]

Or a bomb placed in a part of the plane in preceding airports. That would rely on detonation and then query why did they wait for the CDG to Cairo leg and not the previous Cairo to CDG leg. If a bomb or passenger did originate in CDG this would make a mockery of any airport being able to be secure.

My feeling is it is terrorism but unsure which airport or passenger. I am not thinking missile. To reach cruising altitude it was discussed during the MH17 on-line discussions it needs to be a BUK missile. It maybe may need to be on a warship in this case, which is unlikely.

This area is so militarised and is very busy air and marine routes. My feeling is if it was an act of 'war' the countries involved would know a missile had been launched immediately and there would be different language in the media. No-one is talking any movement apart from French and Greek planes, ships and helicopters being made available as part of SAR. These waters are heavily monitored for asylum seeker boats.

I don't know what is worse, terrorism, which we don't seem to be able to protect against or structural / mechanical damage of a respected and heavily used aircraft. Neither scenario generates any confidence.

Would love to hear others thoughts.

 

[krig101]

This is just awful news. Those poor passengers. 1 child and 2 babies on board RIP to all aboard.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

 

[MathildaM]

Agree completely (to what Melmoth the Lost said). I cannot work out how to get the blue box around replying with a quote. Gah

 

[SouthAussie]

Has this been reported before? Sudden swerves?


36m ago
The plane made “sudden swerves” before it came down, the Greek defence minister has said according to Reuters.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

 

[DanceCard]

Has this been reported before? Sudden swerves?


36m ago
The plane made “sudden swerves” before it came down, the Greek defence minister has said according to Reuters.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

I've just seen that quote too.
Still not feeling ready to hypothesise, before I do, I would like to know what altitude the aircraft was showing when it began to make these 'sudden swerves'.
This is horrible. Again.

 

[SouthAussie]

They are starting to form some kind of picture ....


Greek defence sources are describing time frame between 03:27 to 03:29 as “critical point”, writes Helena Smith.

It was in this two minute period when the plane made a 90 degree swerve left and dropped from 37,000 feet to 15,000 feet before swerving 60 degrees right and vanishing at 10,000 feet ten to 15 miles inside Egyptian air space.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Or a bomb placed in a part of the plane in preceding airports. That would rely on detonation and then query why did they wait for the CDG to Cairo leg and not the previous Cairo to CDG leg.

I can think of several possible reasons:

1. They might assume there would be more westerners on board a flight from Paris to Cairo;
2. It was an early hours of the morning flight when responses by the authorities could be expected to be slower, especially given the hours of darkness before a search could properly begin ; and
3. To make it more difficult for investigators to work out where it was put on the plane.

If a bomb or passenger did originate in CDG this would make a mockery of any airport being able to be secure.

Yep. Especially as airport staff in France seem to go on strike at the drop of a hat.

 

[MathildaM]

"France’s parliament has confirmed a two-month extension of the state of emergency that has been in place since November’s attacks on Paris. The extension will cover the Euro 2016 football tournament and the Tour de France."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates


So do you read this as they are just being paranoid or that they are leaning towards this being a terrorist attack?

Edited to add, yes I would completelu understand them being paranoid

 

[MathildaM]

From Wikipedia:

"Routine maintenance checks on the plane were carried out on Wednesday in Cairo, before it left for Paris, an airline official said. The flight was the aircraft's fifth of the day, having flown from Asmara International Airport, Eritrea to Cairo; Cairo to Tunis–Carthage International Airport, Tunisia and back; and Cairo to Paris."

Could something not have been repaired correctly?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_804

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Could something not have been repaired correctly?

I'm no expert of course, but the movements described (a violent turn to the left, a huge fall in altitude and then a violent turn to the right) sounds like the loss of the rudder. Whether that would be a mechanical failure possibly due to poor maintenance or the result of an explosion, well it could be either.

From what I've seen, European aviation bods seem to be happy with the standards of Egyptair's maintenance of its aircraft. If they weren't, it wouldn't be flying into or out of Europe.

 

[MathildaM]

How can they have not found this plane yet? It is the Mediterranean Sea, full of ships, satellite coverage and radar not some huge ocean.

Bed time here in Australia, hoping I wake to find the plane ditched safely and all crew and passengers are safe on some tiny uninhabited rock, but unfortunately I doubt it. RIP MS 804 and here's hoping for a quick resolution.