I agree with you that we are making a lot of presumptions based on this video. In this case, it is the only potential evidence we have, so I think conjecture is okay. We get into trouble; however, if we extrapolate based on her elevator behavior to draw conclusions about her manner of death because there are surely things only LE and her family know at this point that substantiates whether this is an accident or homicide.
I don't have any pet theories on what happened to EL but will say that the psychosis accidental death theory loses even further ground for me if we believe she found herself in the water tank hours after the video because if she were roaming the hotel behaving weirdly given the popularity and accessibility to the roof it is likely someone would have reported seeing her. I read that access back into the building from the stairs is every 5 floors due to fire code, so I could see her easily getting trapped in the stairwell. If she had trouble with the elevator buttons I cannot see her figuring out the door pattern.
In my opinion, so much has to occur as random chance with all this if EL did have an accident that it borders on the absurd for me. Those who think she was murdered note that the perp had to have a lot of prior knowledge to pull this off as there were a lot of logistical obstacles otherwise. At the same time a young girl who had never been to this hotel, overcomes the same obstacles while in a psychotic fugue over the course of a few hours? Anything is possible, and frankly demonic possessions and TB conspiracies are starting to look about just as plausible at this point. ha ha.
I certainly agree that if she were running around for hours, it would be strange if no one saw her--regardless of how she ended up dying. My main points in that post were just that... a) the timeline is very much in questions, and b) I think it's possible that the clothes and such in the video were not the last ones she wore--and this applies to glasses or whatever else, even though I think she left those in Canada, but I'm just clarifying my point
As for the theory that foul play wasn't involved, and it was an accidental death or even suicide... I don't dispute that there are issues with that theory based on what we know. However, my reasoning leads to as many issues with a murder theory. No matter how it happened, it's bizarre and almost inherently involved unlikely events.
The misadventure thing makes a lot more sense to me, and feels like the most obvious answer. But being completely open to other theories, I'm curious what specifically seems the most implausible about it to you? Why is it so difficult to believe that she might have already known about the roof and how to access it, ended up deciding to go up there, and simply found the tops of the tanks after climbing the ladder to the highest point, the little rooftop utility building. From there she became interested in the tanks, for whatever reasons, ended up getting into one and ended up dying. To me that doesn't seem any less plausible than foul play, and based on the known evidence, it seems the most likely (despite the nature of the hotel and its residents bringing up any number of circumstantial suspicions about foul play).
Which aspects in particular would you most question about that example scenario?
And just to add (even though you likely know this), manic psychosis would be unlikely to make someone confused abut things like how to get onto a roof or explore, especially if they already know about it. The state can be more about falling into a very distorted sense of oneself, resulting in bizarre decision-making and behavior. Also, if she did go to the roof very soon after the video--which is as likely as anything else--then it's perfectly possible no one would have seen her.
