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You're right. I recognized that in my first post.
"Although I suppose someone in the hotel could drop the ladder to allow someone to climb up."
i agree. The accidental death by misadventure theories seem completely implausible to me based on the circumstances. It was either murder, or accidental manslaughter (drug OD and perp didn't want to explain that to LE). Purposefully ending up at the bottom of the roof water tank is imo just a conclusion based upon a lack of evidence, not on anything even circumstantial (acting a little odd or having a moderate depressive disorder are prevalent throughout society and not useful in determining her manner of death).
I have read that some police agencies, such as the Thai police, crack cases more from confessions and informants than from forensic work.
I have read that some police agencies, such as the Thai police, crack cases more from confessions and informants than from forensic work.
Most people seem to eventually talk about their crimes, and enough time has gone by for some informant to come forward if someone in the Cecil Hotel had been involved in Elisa's death and talked about it.
And the long-term residents of the hotel all know each other, and also know the hotel inside out after living there for a long time.
If someone who lived in the hotel heard something, or heard from someone who knew or saw something, perhaps they would talk to the police, either to get money or to maintain their relationship with the police, as a source of information. A snitch or informant.
I would like to believe that between forensic analysis, the toxicology reports, informants and good police work, such as interviewing occupants and looking at security videos from nearby buildings, that the police will be able to reach some kind of conclusion on her cause of death.
My snip
I'm wary of cases solved in this manner.....there have just been too many instances of people lying and taking credit for crimes they didn't actually commit. john mark Karr from the JonBenet case for one example.
Plus in places such as Thailand which are notorious for their prison systems one can only imagine what tactics would be used in an interrogation room.....
I think that's exactly why forensics is so important....DNA, fibers, etc don't lie.
I understand what you mean though...I also truly hope LE is 1000% thorough in this investigation.
Yes they definitely took the lid for evidence...whether they found it in place on the cistern Elisa was found in or off. As for the 2x4......interesting.
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Oh yeah, I definitely think that if she was suffering from mania (as it seems she may have been given the nature of the trip, blog entries, and things said about her behavior in the bookstore), it was more likely a result of her not taking her meds than anything. Of course a lot of people just don't have the right cocktail yet, or go through episodes despite the medication, depending on their exact condition.I can say, being someone who suffers from mania and takes the exact same cocktails of meds as Elisa (Addies + celexa and sleeping meds as needed), that if Elisa were truly manic and was on the ever famous manic "runaway" to another coubtry (I ran to London at 19yo on a whim w/ out telling anyone!) it was most likely because she was not taking her medication.
Every time I didn't show up to my classes in college/would travel/engage in risky behavior it was because I was unmedicated. I liked to use alcohol and pot to depress my nervous system when I was manic and dealing with my hyper nervous system.
Im back on my meds, thank god, and have stayed put. Sometimes stay put too much/for too long, but it's better than going on a manic trip and spending money/going nuts!
Too soon? In Monday night's season finale of Castle, the body of a young woman was discovered in the rooftop water tank of a seedy hotel, echoing the real-life and still unsolved case of Elisa Lam.
The ABC drama is set in New York, and their murder victim was an honors student pretending to be a prostitute (Lam was a vacationing student from Canada), but the other similarities are undeniable: In Castle, the crime took place at the "Cedric Hotel"—the real-life crime occurred at the Cecil Hotel in downtown Los Angeles, a similarly seedy establishment.
As for the theory that foul play wasn't involved, and it was an accidental death or even suicide... I don't dispute that there are issues with that theory based on what we know. However, my reasoning leads to as many issues with a murder theory. No matter how it happened, it's bizarre and almost inherently involved unlikely events.
The misadventure thing makes a lot more sense to me, and feels like the most obvious answer. But being completely open to other theories, I'm curious what specifically seems the most implausible about it to you?
It was just a matter if time before one of the 'ripped from the headlines' CSI-style crime shows did this:
http://laist.com/2013/05/14/castle_copies_unsolved_la_water_tan.php
From the link:
I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.
Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.
Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?
All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.
I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.
I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.
Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.
I agree that it's disgusting. It's demoralizing for our society as a whole, and is very likely to create even more heartache for the families. From a purely entertainment perspective, I can understand why a right-out-of-the-headlines story makes for thrilling fodder, but at what cost? I would think whatever thrill-factor it creates is ruled out by the weird feelings of shame and guilt from watching it.Ugh.
I really REALLY hate csi style shows. I tried watching CSI once and was so mortified by how insipid it was (some story about a man having an affair with his teenaged daughter's friend, who planted a venomous snake in his car at a costume party for his daughter's birthday....dear lord.). Never understood why anyone would watch that but not the actual truly educational forensics shows on discovery etc.
It's really disgusting that they're using Elisa and her story IMO. I guess it's an easy way to write a tv show though.
Sorry for the rant u_u
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Thanks for the reply.I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.
Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.
Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?
All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.
I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.
I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.
Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.
I agree. Didn't want to address this above because it was already way too long of a post, but I don't think the LE are any more reliable than her blog for psych issues. They have no reason to lay bare her psych history on television.Of course LE may not have revealed everything there.
I agree that it's disgusting. It's demoralizing for our society as a whole, and is very likely to create even more heartache for the families. From a purely entertainment perspective, I can understand why a right-out-of-the-headlines story makes for thrilling fodder, but at what cost? I would think whatever thrill-factor it creates is ruled out by the weird feelings of shame and guilt from watching it.
These shows need to seriously reassess their ethical behavior... or is that a ridiculously naive thing to think/say? :facepalm:
I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.
Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.
Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?
All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.
I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.
I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.
Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.