Elisa Lam - What Happened?

[jetsetsam]

You're right. I recognized that in my first post.

"Although I suppose someone in the hotel could drop the ladder to allow someone to climb up."

 

[2Hip2BSquare]

You're right. I recognized that in my first post.

"Although I suppose someone in the hotel could drop the ladder to allow someone to climb up."

I wonder if she met someone in the cafe next door or someone she had planned to meet from online. If she had a room/knew someone with a room that had access to the fire escape, she could easily sneak down, drop the ladder, and lead the "friend" up the fire escape.

Perhaps she made a friend on the 14th floor who let her use their fire escape - might explain her presence on the 14th floor.

I think I remember it being brought up that she met many people during her short stay.

 

[findinganatta]

i agree. The accidental death by misadventure theories seem completely implausible to me based on the circumstances. It was either murder, or accidental manslaughter (drug OD and perp didn't want to explain that to LE). Purposefully ending up at the bottom of the roof water tank is imo just a conclusion based upon a lack of evidence, not on anything even circumstantial (acting a little odd or having a moderate depressive disorder are prevalent throughout society and not useful in determining her manner of death).

If we are to believe her own writings in her blog (which is a reasonable thing to do if we're going to bother speculating at all), her psychological issues definitely went beyond your average depressed person. She was displaying behaviors and feelings that went quite beyond "moderate," in my opinion. She stayed secluded to her bedroom for days (even weeks, I believe) and literally couldn't complete more than a semester of college (if memory serves) due to her psych issues. She then swung into manic periods, or hypomanic as she described them, in which she would walk up and say bizarre things to strangers, wrote what I would consider bizarre, borderline unintelligible things in her blog, and took a literal cocktail of pscych drugs, including antipsychotics.

I don't think these things mean that she went into a psychosis, but they are clues to her behavior that are potentially very telling. Also, those states combined with illicit drugs would could easily have exacerbated her diagnosed issues.

As for the video, that's a very subjective thing--probably the most argued about thing in this case. But based on my counseling and psych training (which I don't claim makes me any expert... just means I have some experience studying these specific disorders/behaviors), I strongly believe she is acting very, very strangely in the video, far beyond a "little odd." I agree that these are not useful for us, the public, in making any real determinations about the her manner of death, but NOTHING we know is of use in determining her manner of death... be it murder, accidental manslaughter, misadventure, or suicide. Not having enough useful, detailed, verified information to make any real determinations is a common denominator of everything the public knows about the manner of EL's death. We're in pure speculation land. It's like watching an episode of 48 Hours Mystery with 90% of the important facts and the ending edited out.

 

[2Hip2BSquare]

I can say, being someone who suffers from mania and takes the exact same cocktails of meds as Elisa (Addies + celexa and sleeping meds as needed), that if Elisa were truly manic and was on the ever famous manic "runaway" to another coubtry (I ran to London at 19yo on a whim w/ out telling anyone!) it was most likely because she was not taking her medication.

Every time I didn't show up to my classes in college/would travel/engage in risky behavior it was because I was unmedicated. I liked to use alcohol and pot to depress my nervous system when I was manic and dealing with my hyper nervous system.

Im back on my meds, thank god, and have stayed put. Sometimes stay put too much/for too long, but it's better than going on a manic trip and spending money/going nuts!

 

[LittleWing]

Interesting discussion guys.....it's good to see the elisa threads active again.

I find the information about accessing the fire escape from the ground very interesting.....

This'll probably sound like a stretch but....if Elisa did indeed kill herself, maybe she might have put on a crazy act in the elevator in order to cause less shame upon her parents? I guess I'm thinking that maybe if she killed herself by misadventure it's not as shameful as if she knowingly did it with her full capacities. But I suppose being found dead in a water tank doesn't exactly save face at all. But it adds to the "crazy" aspect. I don't know. There is a very good book called "As Simple As Snow" which covers these types of ambiguities...(don't want to reveal too much but this case reminds me so much of the book....)

I honestly don't think she's acting all that weird in the elevator footage. We don't know what circumstances led to her behavior in it, and being spooked/scared can lead to some pretty irrational reactions and overreactions. You get filled with adrenaline and become bouncy in a nervous fight-or-flight way. I believe that it only seems weird because the footage is totally out of context. I do weird things when I'm in that state, hopping from one foot to another, shaking my hands out. If you saw me in such a state in an elevator you'd think I was nuts too.

The thing is...if she got into that tank of her own accord....I find it hard to imagine that dogs did not pick her scent up at all. It would have been all over that roof.....on the points of access....staircase railings, or at the very least on the cistern. If she got in herself, she touched that cistern, as of course she would not be thinking about covering her tracks if she did it by misadventure/psychosis. She probably had her palms all over it. If it was lidded she would've had to lift that off..... Of course it's possible they didn't get a hint of her smell but it seems unlikely.



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[jetsetsam]

I have noticed through watching lots of vids and looking at still pictures that a sheet of black plastic and and short piece of wooden 1 X 4 moved around, from the top of the cistern nearest the door to the elevator room, to the top of the tank that the body was found in.

I think they were somehow involved in removing the lid from the tank that the body was in. And I think, maybe, I vaguely remember, one pic with the lid peaking out from under the plastic after it was removed and placed on the tank behind the tank with the body. The tank to the front/right of the building.

And the black plastic on the ground that some people thought looked like Elisa's black coat, could have been covering the removed lid.

All of the vids and pics with the fire personnel show the tank without the lid.

So I think the lid was removed for forensic examination.

DNA, scent, fingerprints.

 

[jetsetsam]

I have read that some police agencies, such as the Thai police, crack cases more from confessions and informants than from forensic work.

Most people seem to eventually talk about their crimes, and enough time has gone by for some informant to come forward if someone in the Cecil Hotel had been involved in Elisa's death and talked about it.

And the long-term residents of the hotel all know each other, and also know the hotel inside out after living there for a long time.

If someone who lived in the hotel heard something, or heard from someone who knew or saw something, perhaps they would talk to the police, either to get money or to maintain their relationship with the police, as a source of information. A snitch or informant.

I would like to believe that between forensic analysis, the toxicology reports, informants and good police work, such as interviewing occupants and looking at security videos from nearby buildings, that the police will be able to reach some kind of conclusion on her cause of death.

 

[LittleWing]

I have read that some police agencies, such as the Thai police, crack cases more from confessions and informants than from forensic work.

My snip

I'm wary of cases solved in this manner.....there have just been too many instances of people lying and taking credit for crimes they didn't actually commit. john mark Karr from the JonBenet case for one example.

Plus in places such as Thailand which are notorious for their prison systems one can only imagine what tactics would be used in an interrogation room.....

I think that's exactly why forensics is so important....DNA, fibers, etc don't lie.

I understand what you mean though...I also truly hope LE is 1000% thorough in this investigation.

Yes they definitely took the lid for evidence...whether they found it in place on the cistern Elisa was found in or off. As for the 2x4......interesting.




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[2Hip2BSquare]

I have read that some police agencies, such as the Thai police, crack cases more from confessions and informants than from forensic work.

Most people seem to eventually talk about their crimes, and enough time has gone by for some informant to come forward if someone in the Cecil Hotel had been involved in Elisa's death and talked about it.

And the long-term residents of the hotel all know each other, and also know the hotel inside out after living there for a long time.

If someone who lived in the hotel heard something, or heard from someone who knew or saw something, perhaps they would talk to the police, either to get money or to maintain their relationship with the police, as a source of information. A snitch or informant.

I would like to believe that between forensic analysis, the toxicology reports, informants and good police work, such as interviewing occupants and looking at security videos from nearby buildings, that the police will be able to reach some kind of conclusion on her cause of death.

I would agree. The lack of a follow up w the press from the LAPD might insinuate that the investigation is still active and confidential for the time being. I pray that Justice is enacted to the fullest extent in this case. No one deserves whatever happened to Elisa.

If she were truly mentally Ill, she was so vulnerable to predators. I really identify and sympathize with Elisa's story bc at one point - being a bipolar-borderline female - I engaged in similar behavior. At times I would fly to
Other states to meet guys I had met online - I was blessed enough to
Have not encountered a predator.

Whatever/whoever is responsible for this - I believe as you stated - will be held accountable eventually.

 

[2Hip2BSquare]

My snip

I'm wary of cases solved in this manner.....there have just been too many instances of people lying and taking credit for crimes they didn't actually commit. john mark Karr from the JonBenet case for one example.

Plus in places such as Thailand which are notorious for their prison systems one can only imagine what tactics would be used in an interrogation room.....

I think that's exactly why forensics is so important....DNA, fibers, etc don't lie.

I understand what you mean though...I also truly hope LE is 1000% thorough in this investigation.

Yes they definitely took the lid for evidence...whether they found it in place on the cistern Elisa was found in or off. As for the 2x4......interesting.




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I Defo am a forensics nazi! I believe there's no better evidence than scientific, not circumstantial. And yes, I pray the lid gives a sign as to who was involved in this atrocity.

Also, I too took issue with the SAR dogs negative read on the roof. However, after I read up on SAR dogs and techniques, there are many different types of SAR dogs.

http://www.ussartf.org/dogs_search_rescue.htm

Some dogs track cadaver scents and some track living scents. Even these adorable hero canines are intelligent enough to be categorized further for specific SAR techniques.

I wondered if they assumed Elisa was alive and had only brought living scent tracking dogs to the roof rather than cadaver dogs? Furthermore, it was cold and windy on that rooftop, which both can affect/disperse the scent cone emitting from the person/object the dogs are searching for.

 

[2Hip2BSquare]

I worry that Interpol got involved bc they suspect her possible murderer could be of international origin. If she had planned on meeting with another global traveler in LA via the Internet, and that person was the perp., I would think maybe the intelligence/evidence shared between LAPD and Interpol would make the investigation more lengthy/intricate.

I honestly hope I'm wrong on that. And I am aware Interpol would initially be involved anyhow given she was from Canada.

 

[findinganatta]

I can say, being someone who suffers from mania and takes the exact same cocktails of meds as Elisa (Addies + celexa and sleeping meds as needed), that if Elisa were truly manic and was on the ever famous manic "runaway" to another coubtry (I ran to London at 19yo on a whim w/ out telling anyone!) it was most likely because she was not taking her medication.

Every time I didn't show up to my classes in college/would travel/engage in risky behavior it was because I was unmedicated. I liked to use alcohol and pot to depress my nervous system when I was manic and dealing with my hyper nervous system.

Im back on my meds, thank god, and have stayed put. Sometimes stay put too much/for too long, but it's better than going on a manic trip and spending money/going nuts!

Oh yeah, I definitely think that if she was suffering from mania (as it seems she may have been given the nature of the trip, blog entries, and things said about her behavior in the bookstore), it was more likely a result of her not taking her meds than anything. Of course a lot of people just don't have the right cocktail yet, or go through episodes despite the medication, depending on their exact condition.

If I remember correctly from her blog, she posted a picture of her meds and listed them, and there was more than just Adderall, SSRI, and sleeping meds. I'm pretty sure she also had an anti-psychotic in there, although it may have been the low-dose kind that are now being marketed as an SSRI supplement for depressed people.

Another thing to consider is that antidepressants can cause mania in some bipolar people, so depending on her situation, they may have played a role. I believe she had changed her meds around fairly recently before LA, like a month or two before, which would mean she was still in a period when averse side-effects would be most likely to appear for the first time (I got this info from her blog, and if memory serves, she had changed up her regimen in some way--unfortunately it takes so damn long to get back into December in her Tumblr on my computer that I can't easily access it without spending 10 or 15 minutes looking for that one entry... not exactly a user-friendly site, in my opinion).

 

[findinganatta]

It was just a matter if time before one of the 'ripped from the headlines' CSI-style crime shows did this:

http://laist.com/2013/05/14/castle_copies_unsolved_la_water_tan.php

From the link:

Too soon? In Monday night's season finale of Castle, the body of a young woman was discovered in the rooftop water tank of a seedy hotel, echoing the real-life and still unsolved case of Elisa Lam.

The ABC drama is set in New York, and their murder victim was an honors student pretending to be a prostitute (Lam was a vacationing student from Canada), but the other similarities are undeniable: In Castle, the crime took place at the "Cedric Hotel"—the real-life crime occurred at the Cecil Hotel in downtown Los Angeles, a similarly seedy establishment.

 

[Conductor71]

As for the theory that foul play wasn't involved, and it was an accidental death or even suicide... I don't dispute that there are issues with that theory based on what we know. However, my reasoning leads to as many issues with a murder theory. No matter how it happened, it's bizarre and almost inherently involved unlikely events.

The misadventure thing makes a lot more sense to me, and feels like the most obvious answer. But being completely open to other theories, I'm curious what specifically seems the most implausible about it to you?

I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.

Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.

Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?

All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.

I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.

I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.

Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.

 

[LittleWing]

It was just a matter if time before one of the 'ripped from the headlines' CSI-style crime shows did this:

http://laist.com/2013/05/14/castle_copies_unsolved_la_water_tan.php

From the link:

Ugh.

I really REALLY hate csi style shows. I tried watching CSI once and was so mortified by how insipid it was (some story about a man having an affair with his teenaged daughter's friend, who planted a venomous snake in his car at a costume party for his daughter's birthday....dear lord.). Never understood why anyone would watch that but not the actual truly educational forensics shows on discovery etc.

It's really disgusting that they're using Elisa and her story IMO. I guess it's an easy way to write a tv show though.

Sorry for the rant u_u


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[LittleWing]

I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.

Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.

Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?

All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.

I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.

I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.

Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.

Excellent post conductor. I always enjoy your posts

I also feel like too much weight is being placed on her tumblr posts. Sure they show a part of her...but that's just it....a part. A part of what she wanted to express and share, which in no way is the whole person. And as you mention a confirmation bias....it's so true. It's like so many others who came up with far fetched stories, CONVINCED that every detail matched up with their story, twisting and contorting things in to absurd levels to make it fit.

Interesting about the Bpd. I was under the impression that she was diagnosed for it so the confirmation of mild depression only surprised me. Of course LE may not have revealed everything there.

On a side note which I think is of importance in the case.....when I began seeing a counsellor a couple years back, I told her that I thought I might have Bpd. When she asked me why, I said it was because when I felt happy, it felt crazy. I was energetic and bursting with life in my happy moments. She told me that when a person has depression, feeling happy WILL feel crazy because you're not used to it. She said I've spent so much time depressed that happiness felt almost alien to me. This can explain Elisa's joyous moments, her comments about making friends, etc. it was her natural joyous spirit shining through between bouts of depression. JMO!



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[findinganatta]

Ugh.

I really REALLY hate csi style shows. I tried watching CSI once and was so mortified by how insipid it was (some story about a man having an affair with his teenaged daughter's friend, who planted a venomous snake in his car at a costume party for his daughter's birthday....dear lord.). Never understood why anyone would watch that but not the actual truly educational forensics shows on discovery etc.

It's really disgusting that they're using Elisa and her story IMO. I guess it's an easy way to write a tv show though.

Sorry for the rant u_u


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I agree that it's disgusting. It's demoralizing for our society as a whole, and is very likely to create even more heartache for the families. From a purely entertainment perspective, I can understand why a right-out-of-the-headlines story makes for thrilling fodder, but at what cost? I would think whatever thrill-factor it creates is ruled out by the weird feelings of shame and guilt from watching it.

These shows need to seriously reassess their ethical behavior... or is that a ridiculously naive thing to think/say? :facepalm:

 

[findinganatta]

I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.

Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.

Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?

All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.

I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.

I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.

Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.

Thanks for the reply.

I completely agree that it's likely a drug-induced mindset that caused her behavior--at least as likely as a psych episode, if not more. Which is a stance I've always maintained since I began to doubt the foul play theories. However, if she took or was given drugs, they very well may have exacerbated natural psych issues, but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this reply.

As for the confirmation bias leading to 'anything is possible', I see that in both the accidental death and foul play theories... they both involve vague, 'anything is possible' ideas. In my opinion, the foul play theories go even further out on a limb in terms of "anything" being possible. But overall the accidental death theories aren't so unlikely as to involve "anything" needing to be possible. My opinion.

Regarding your second paragraph, I need to go look back at her blog for reference to my understanding of what exactly was said. It takes my computer a while to get back and access her older posts. However, I have tried to stick to actual things she wrote, because I don't think we can read into it too much--as in assuming things about her doctor or diagnosis based on a presumed sarcastic comment. I know you're just expressing intuition there, but to base any real theory on it seems very iffy. And there is no proof she was taking the drugs, but the fact that she ever was indicates something. Not sure what, exactly. Even if she had discontinued use, that in itself very likely could have resulted in an 'episode'... it's all speculation, but as far as our speculative, circumstantial information goes, it's a solid possibility.

Personally, I've never made any comments about command hallucinations or her trip being a spontaneous event (or any number of things other people have said about her 'going crazy'), and I see the command hallucination thing as speculative to the point of silliness. This is where I think you are attributing the more outlandish statements made by a few to the general theory of accidental death held by many of us. There have been plenty of absurd foul play theories, too, but those are generally pushed by a few people. Also, regarding the tox test, I think the LE would have conducted that regardless of her established psychological state. The death had a inexplicable, utterly strange, high-profile nature, and they had no suspects... I would imagine that scenario alone would cause them to test for drugs.

I also agree that we can't put much weight on her blog, other than a few specific, overt aspects and any outright facts that she claimed were true. My theory is least reliant on the blog, even though I happened to have referenced some of those more overt aspects in the last page or so. The blog is just minor element, in my opinion.

It sounds like you see an accidental death due to some kind of drug use as a perfectly likely explanation. Which means we don't disagree, other than the fact that I see her psych features as feasibly playing a bigger role. But I think it's more than likely that drugs were involved, regardless of whether any psych issues were or weren't.

I simply lean in the direction that foul play was probably not involved.

My perspective is based more on the lack of evidence of foul play and the unlikely practical aspects of carrying it out (unless maybe she was specifically killed on top or in the tank, which again seems very unlikely to me). Foul play strikes me as much more improbably than an accidental death, but we all have our own opinions... and in this case, there are so many unknown variables that it's perfectly possible for two logical people to have very different theories.

And btw, I can imagine a number of accidental death scenarios, including ones involving other people. However, I would think those other people would have already spilled the beans to someone, and that they woudn't be able to keep it quiet forever.

Of course LE may not have revealed everything there.

I agree. Didn't want to address this above because it was already way too long of a post, but I don't think the LE are any more reliable than her blog for psych issues. They have no reason to lay bare her psych history on television.

 

[LittleWing]

I agree that it's disgusting. It's demoralizing for our society as a whole, and is very likely to create even more heartache for the families. From a purely entertainment perspective, I can understand why a right-out-of-the-headlines story makes for thrilling fodder, but at what cost? I would think whatever thrill-factor it creates is ruled out by the weird feelings of shame and guilt from watching it.

These shows need to seriously reassess their ethical behavior... or is that a ridiculously naive thing to think/say? :facepalm:

The sad thing is that the great majority of the people who watch these shows probably don't realise they are based *coughough*ripped off*coughcough* on actual people's stories and brutal realities being used as cheap thrills.

I too was thinking, what would Elisa's friends/family think if they knew about it? Not to mention the whole rehashing of the contaminated water drama which already turned the poor girl in to a sick punchline one time around.

But hey if it gets people watching and the bucks keep rolling in.....


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[2Hip2BSquare]

I do think that a fatal accident may be the conclusion drawn by LE, and I have not ruled that out, but I see it as drug induced, not organic bipolar disorder. However, given that we have no audio context with that video, asserting she is responding to command hallucinations is just like asserting she was conversing with the perp outisde the elevator; we have absolutely no evidence supporting either scenario. I understand how people, expert or not, have arrived at favoring the accident theory, and if I did not factor in anything else, I would nearly be convinced of it too. The 'evidence' presented looks to me much more like confirmation bias that dismisses any confounding variable by saying that anything is possible based on her mental state.

Nowhere in EL's Tumblr account does it state she has received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Or, did I miss this? She is an astute girl with an an academic interest in psychology and is keenly aware of her mental state. She casually refers to two new drugs she has been prescribed that adjunct her antidepressants and makes a rather sarcastic observation that "now she is ADHD and Bipolar as well". If anything, this indicates to me just the opposite. Her doctor added these in without any explanation, so EL resorted to researching the drugs and then questioned what that meant. It says more to me that she wondered if she was being treated for depression why was she being thrown a curve ball.

Every little blip in her mental state via the blog from that point seems to be presented as mounting evidence of her fragile mental state until we reach full blown mania, psychosis, and perhaps even undetected schizophrenia, culminating in paranoid command hallucinations that have her seeking refuge on the roof in a water tank and dying as a result. Whew! Even her traveling alone becomes seen as an example of her hypomanic state. Her trip was not impulsive; she in fact took great pleasure in planning it. Traveling alone could be explained by many other things, but in rushing to judgment, any sort of slightly nonconformist aspect of her life is seen as evidence of her mental illness. This all results from an aside on one drug that was prescribed 10 months prior to her travels. Where is the proof she was still taking any of these drugs?

All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged.

I know this can be discounted as hearsay, but the police rely heavily on interviewing family and friends when death is equivocal. One last note, if she were indeed truly Bipolar all the police and coroner would have technically needed is that info to explain away the whole bizarre mess. What bearing would a toxicology report have on that? If they had no evidence to the contrary, they would not need a toxicology screen. It would be far easier for all involved to have stamped this as accidental from the autopsy, and it seems if EL's psych doctor confirmed a diagnosis of BPD they could have done so.

I have other solid reasoning supporting my belief that too much weight has been assigned to her blog. As it really does not shed any new light on the case I will spare everyone. I will say that I think drugs are central to resolving this bizarre death. Either she experienced drug induced psychosis or was drugged to make her compliant. BTW, I do acknowledge that her blog showed signs of hypomania, but that may have easily been a side effect of the one drug that she was relieved to find helped her depression.

Gosh, this is so long, sorry, but in responding this is the core issue I have. I will post separately to answer your second question on scenario.

Conductor, your brilliant words are never lost on me. I enjoy reading your analysis.

"
All we know for sure is what the LAPD disclosed; she suffered from mild depression. Period. In fact, more than once LE explicitly states that she is not known to have any (other) mental health issues. In other words her video behavior was pretty freaking bizarre to them as well. Her friends have noted the same. It was so unlike her in fact that one person who had known her from when she was a young girl was so haunted by the video it made him physically ill and he started experiencing nightmares. A close friend reveals on her Tumblr that the video was not at all her friend and that she was drugged."

I took time planning my random trips. I guess the element of it was that I was secretive usually about my true reasoning for going to places do as to not worry my parents. They were constantly on me about my mental state, which honestly wasn't that damaged and they had crazy standards anyhow. My fame prefers to be status quo and stay in country and they'd see my free attitude as "flippant". Looking back, it was.

People who know me would say that I've never freaked them
Out with my mania, except for possibly talking too much about my interests or my not sleeping well (have NEVER sleep walked - depressed or manic).

But I have never, whether on it off my meds - depressed or manic - acted like Elisa did in that elevator. And apparently, Elisa's loved ones never knew her act in the way she did on that video.

I honestly believe, just IMHO, that she was drugged/intoxicated with alcohol that had been drugged in that video.

She seemed to be a bright and AWARE girl. Constantly interested in her surroundings and the art within it all. She noticed the details in things. That flippant/confused behavior in the elevator does not match her detailed/considerate demeanor.