IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[GrainneDhu]

I've never trusted the CCTV time stamp. The only thing it's been cross referenced to is the owner's own cell phone and who knows how accurate that is. And then we have TG's cell phone and the person he was on the phone with whose own phone's time is a minute off of TG's. There could be a real gap between the CCTV-owner's cell phone and TG's cell phone. All this talk of split second timing and can the girls make it across town in seven or eight minutes seems like a lot of splitting hairs when we basically know nothing about how accurate any of the times involved actually are in reference to each other.

The only thing I can say is that I believe Mr Pahl's cell phone time is accurate. In the following article, it specifies that he has a US Cellular phone:

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

I also have a US Cellular phone, so the first time this was discussed, I looked on my cell phone to see how the time was set. I couldn't remember ever setting the time myself. It turns out that it can only be set to a 12 hour clock or a 24 hour clock but the actual time cannot be set.

Then I called US Cellular to ask how my phone knows what time it is. The customer service person I talked to said that the time on my phone is adjusted every time my cell phone pings "several times each minute."

He said that the cell tower time is synchronised with the national time clock.

So we know Mr Pahl's cell phone time is accurate.

What we do not know is whether Mr Gamerdinger's cell phone is accurate.

I'm agreeing with you, just trying to clarify one teeny tiny point that means nothing in the overall scheme of things but I couldn't stop myself.

I apologise.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The only reason I can think of would be that the perp is a local person, so they needed to get the bikes off their property (home or truck or van) quickly. The trail was the best place to drop the bikes off without being seen. Just Moo going with the staging of the bikes theory.

The only way I can think of for an adult to get two bicycles, one obviously meant for a child, into place would be to cut through the woods.

And if the perp cut through the woods, why not leave them in the woods? It would have taken longer to find them and it would still point LE at the lake, once they were found (kids having the well known tendency to be attracted to water).

 

[Sunlight]

The only way I can think of for an adult to get two bicycles, one obviously meant for a child, into place would be to cut through the woods.

And if the perp cut through the woods, why not leave them in the woods? It would have taken longer to find them and it would still point LE at the lake, once they were found (kids having the well known tendency to be attracted to water).

Why don't you girls just leave your bikes over there while we go look at...look for....something I want to show you...it's just a little walk...we'll be back in just a little while...no over there...down that path...a little further...shhh...don't scare the....keep going...don't run...isn't this fun...

or

Start walking, be quiet or I'll hurt your friend, stand there/here while I park your bikes...leave the purse...over there...get in the...go down that path...quiet...keep walking...

 

[GrainneDhu]

Any way you look at it, it worked to his advantage when the main focus became draining the lake before it even became an abduction case.

SBM

I think draining the lake kept the media's attention and manpower at the lake but the LE investigators, frankly, were barely there.

The FBI sonar and dive team would never have been called in if there hadn't be a water element, so they don't really count towards the investigation of a possible abduction.

The guys in kayaks? They were firefighters. They would not normally participate in a LE investigation that did not include arson.

The police officer keeping watch over the cordon? Probably not an investigator either.

Chief Deputy Abben gave away the reason that LE waited so long to declare it an abduction and it had nothing to do with the lake; in fact, before the lake was drained, he said that LE was already sure the girls weren't in it.

Abben said something to the effect that nothing in the investigation had changed but now they had to read certain people their rights before interviewing them.

For me, that was the aha! moment. Holding off on officially calling it an abduction left LE with the freedom to pretend to a somewhat greater degree of casual-ness and slightly less official-ness. So they waited as long as they plausibly could to declare it an abduction.

 

[Ollipop]

Been away for awhile. I'm not caught up, about to start reading this thread.

I'd read where another local had said the entrance to Maiden Lane was obvious from Arbutus. I walked around the lake with my son last night. We got to the lift house at about sunset, and I am still confused by that statement. The driveway for the lift house is obvious, as is a path on the left which leads to the back yard of the neighboring house, but Maiden Lane is still just a wall of undergrowth from Arbutus as far as I could tell. Getting dark, we didn't walk down there.

However, earlier, walking thru the area where the bikes were found, I was struck by how much it has been cleared out. Much of the brush and weeds along the shoreline between the fence and the lake have been cut away or sprayed down. There also appears to have been some heavier equipment down there in the now-visible lake bottom by the drain, as if it had been dug around or cleared out or something. Also, the woods in general appear to have been cleared somewhat. It was getting late in the day, but I noticed I could actually see all the way through the woods from the trail to Arbutus, which hadn't been possible before due to foliage. It is evident there has been some serious searching and investigating going on in there. Much of it, I suspect, has been trampled down. There were countless new paths leading in to the woods from the grassy area to the east. The woods have a much less "dark" appearance, and the "creepy" of the trail was reduced considerably.

Someone had wanted me to check out the open area to the west of the lake. I've been over there a couple times, and each time there were families from the houses that back up to that area out in the yards, so I didn't go snooping.

Preview Poyner was tonight - sort of a meet n greet for the local elementary school (starts in the morning). There were many, many pink shirts, ribbons, posters, etc on display. Obama was in town last night as well (I didn't attend, no clue as to the visibility of the cause.)

 

[GrainneDhu]

In Google Maps, once you click the two general locations from one point to another, there will be a little bicycle up at the top. Just click on that and it allows you to use "bike routes," as well. You can then just drag one point to a spot on a bike path. Hope that helps.
As for times, you would need to calculate the distance and time to get MPHs. So, let's say you have a time of 6 minutes, and 1.5 miles. 60 divided by 6 time distance. (10 x 1.5 = 15) So, to travel 1.5 miles in 6 minutes, you'd have to go 15 MPH. Pretty fast on a bike...

Fifteen mph is actually an average cruising speed for a reasonably fit bicyclist.

My brother and father used to belong to the local bicycle club and my dad was the unofficial rolling doc for RAGBRAI back when it was just Karras and Kaul plus a few thousand of their closest friends.

The bicycle club planned bicycle rides based on 15 mph average cruising speed. That let the rolling refreshment/first aid station (me and my mom) plan out ahead of time where to set up and when to move in order to keep up with the slower half of the riders.

Those bicycle club rides included kids as young as 8 years old and they were definitely not the slowest riders. Eight year olds have less muscle power than adults but they also have less weight to carry.

A reasonably fit rider can hit somewhere around 30 mph over a quarter mile on relatively flat ground (according to informal time trials we held). By reasonably fit, I mean someone who could ride RAGBRAI, do the century loop day and never need the sag wagon.

There were a lot of reasonably fit riders whose bodies looked like TG's body. I don't mean a professional athlete level of fitness, I mean the level of fitness someone can attain by riding 25 miles a week.

Bicycle racers can go even faster. The racer teams would roll out of one RAGBRAI campground and appear at the next campground before the RAGBRAI baggage trucks made an appearance.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Why don't you girls just leave your bikes over there while we go look at...look for....something I want to show you...it's just a little walk...we'll be back in just a little while...no over there...down that path...a little further...shhh...don't scare the....keep going...don't run...isn't this fun...

or

Start walking, be quiet or I'll hurt your friend, stand there/here while I park your bikes...leave the purse...over there...get in the...go down that path...quiet...keep walking...

I agree with you.

What I was addressing was the possibility that the bicycles had been staged from some other location. I just don't see any good reason to leave them at the lake and lots of good ones not to leave them at the lake.

 

[TeenyTaurus]

The only way I can think of for an adult to get two bicycles, one obviously meant for a child, into place would be to cut through the woods.

And if the perp cut through the woods, why not leave them in the woods? It would have taken longer to find them and it would still point LE at the lake, once they were found (kids having the well known tendency to be attracted to water).

unless the perp wasn't all that familiar with those woods... mind got stuck on the more familiar trail... wanted it more "obvious"? like a big, red flag?

 

[nikb]

The only reason I can think of would be that the perp is a local person, so they needed to get the bikes off their property (home or truck or van) quickly. The trail was the best place to drop the bikes off without being seen. Just Moo going with the staging of the bikes theory.

Hmmm this just sparked a thought. A few threads ago we were talking about whether there were any vacant houses nearby, maybe even some that were up for sale and would have open houses or showings. And early on I recall one of the locals saying Evansdale is the kind of place where people left their doors unlocked. Is that true just when they're home, or also when they leave, go to work, etc.? Could someone's home have been unlocked and been used for whatever happened? It'd be another reason to ditch the bikes. The homeowners wouldn't be back for hours but a couple of bikes in the yard/driveway would be obvious? Anything violent happening to the girls would've been evident, but just keeping them somewhere for a few hours might not be, especially if the girls were somewhat comfortable with the person and thought they were at his or her house.

I don't know, probably far fetched, but another thought to throw out there.

 

[otto]

the bikes TG saw could have been owned by other kids (if they were kids bikes) that were there before L and L arrived. that would make the timeline better..if we can trust the cctv

The problem I have with believing that two different sets of children left their bikes on the trail that particular afternoon is that local people have said that the trail is not used that often and that very few people actually walk/cycle all around the trail. We also know, so far, that only one "runner" is confirmed to have seen the girls bikes on the trail between noon and about 4. Also, if two other children were playing in the area at the same time that the girls bikes were at the trail, why didn't they see the girls? It's possible that two sets of children left two sets of bikes on the trail, but I think it's unlikely.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Why don't you girls just leave your bikes over there while we go look at...look for....something I want to show you...it's just a little walk...we'll be back in just a little while...no over there...down that path...a little further...shhh...don't scare the....keep going...don't run...isn't this fun...

or

Start walking, be quiet or I'll hurt your friend, stand there/here while I park your bikes...leave the purse...over there...get in the...go down that path...quiet...keep walking...

That explains how the bikes might have wound up on the trail, but my original post, which RoseofSharon replied to and which was then responded to by GrainneDhu, was regarding the "staging" of the bikes.

Some posters think the bikes were placed on the trail after the girls were abducted, that the girls were never at the lake. My question was, why would someone go to the trouble of staging the bikes there.:waitasec: If it was just to buy more time so the perp(s) could get away, it seems to me there would have been easier places to dispose of the bikes other than staging them at the lake. JMO.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I really don't think any assumption can be made at this point. Depending on the accuracy of the timeline, there was plenty of time between the time the girls arrived at the trail where the bikes were found, and the time they were discovered. They could have been walked out of the area in a matter of hours...or walked a distance and then put into a vehicle. A perp could easily have been on foot or on a bike for that matter. Leaving the bikes behind could just have been the convenient thing to do and a distraction for those that ultimately found them. MOO BBM

Again, I understand a dozen different ways the bikes could have been left on the trail by the girls. What I am trying to get an understanding of is why someone would "stage" the bikes there, if the girls had never been there. In other words, if the girls never made it to the lake, then someone had to have put the bikes there. My question is why?

 

[Sunlight]

That explains how the bikes might have wound up on the trail, but my original post, which RoseofSharon replied to and which was then responded to by GrainneDhu, was regarding the "staging" of the bikes.

Some posters think the bikes were placed on the trail after the girls were abducted, that the girls were never at the lake. My question was, why would someone go to the trouble of staging the bikes there.:waitasec: If it was just to buy more time so the perp(s) could get away, it seems to me there would have been easier places to dispose of the bikes other than staging them at the lake. JMO.

Yes, totally agree. I think more likely they were just left there. Perhaps they were never moved at all. We just don't know. If somebody picked the girls up in a van and took the trouble to actually go and stage the bikes..then, in my mind, that is another scenario, and I won't/can't go there.

 

[nikb]

The only way I can think of for an adult to get two bicycles, one obviously meant for a child, into place would be to cut through the woods.

<snipped for space>

Or maybe... ride the mountain bike while pulling the other bike alongside? I wouldn't have even thought about this except I saw a similar scenario earlier today, someone was riding one bike and pedaling down the road holding the other bike. My first thought was the second bike maybe broke somehow and the guy went back to fix it then brought it home. Second thought was maybe the kid fell off and got hurt and the guy went back to get the other bike. Third thought was it was stolen. I can't believe it but I didn't even think about how the bike thing could be related to Elizabeth/Lyric until just a little bit ago.

With that said I truly don't believe the bikes were staged, but I don't have a strong reason for it. It just seems like too much hassle and risk. But in trying to think through the staging scenario a few things came to mind and this was one of them.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The only way I can think of for an adult to get two bicycles, one obviously meant for a child, into place would be to cut through the woods.

And if the perp cut through the woods, why not leave them in the woods? It would have taken longer to find them and it would still point LE at the lake, once they were found (kids having the well known tendency to be attracted to water).

That is exactly what I've been wondering. If the girls were abducted before getting to the lake, there had to have been many better/easier places to leave the bikes that would still point LE to the lake. JMO

I am trying to explore all possibilities, including one in which the girls never went to the lake that day. But it is hard to consider that possibility without also trying to figure out how and why the bikes ended up at the lake.

 

[obody]

Again, I understand a dozen different ways the bikes could have been left on the trail by the girls. What I am trying to get an understanding of is why someone would "stage" the bikes there, if the girls had never been there. In other words, if the girls never made it to the lake, then someone had to have put the bikes there. My question is why?

1. It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one.

2. It was a stranger abduction but they needed a diversion. Not so much to buy time, but to redirect the focus. Someone who lives or works close to the house. If the bikes had not been found, how differently would the neighborhood around the house have been treated?

 

[Sunlight]

The fact is that the bikes were at the lake, which means it is extremely likely the girls got the bikes there. The huge question is after they dismounted those bikes...which way did they go. N S E or W ???? If they were on foot...how could they have gotten out of the area on foot without being seen...led along the river south for example...through the woods on Maiden Lane...up the hill to the highway...led on a trail for a longer time in a different direction than has been discussed perhaps to a pre-parked car or van...

Which way did they go?

 

[Marilynilpa]

1. It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one.

2. It was a stranger abduction but they needed a diversion. Not so much to buy time, but to redirect the focus. Someone who lives or works close to the house. If the bikes had not been found, how differently would the neighborhood around the house have been treated?

Thanks, those are a couple of points to ponder.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The fact is that the bikes were at the lake, which means it is extremely likely the girls got the bikes there. The huge question is after they dismounted those bikes...which way did they go. N S E or W ???? If they were on foot...how could they have gotten out of the area on foot without being seen...led along the river south for example...through the woods on Maiden Lane...up the hill to the highway...led on a trail for a longer time in a different direction than has been discussed perhaps to a pre-parked car or van...

Which way did they go?

I think the girls got to the lake, too. That's why I was playing devil's advocate with myself (something I do often) by wondering how the bikes could have wound up there without the girls actually riding them there.

As to the questions you posed, you've asked many of the same questions I've wondered about. I feel the girls were taken to a vehicle, but have no idea yet whether they went willingly (abduction by someone known to them) or unwillingly (abduction by stranger).:banghead:

ETA: Obody's point, "It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one" is the best reason I can think of for staging the bikes. IMO

 

[dnasmom9]

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