IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[mahoolin]

SBM

I think draining the lake kept the media's attention and manpower at the lake but the LE investigators, frankly, were barely there.

The FBI sonar and dive team would never have been called in if there hadn't be a water element, so they don't really count towards the investigation of a possible abduction.

The guys in kayaks? They were firefighters. They would not normally participate in a LE investigation that did not include arson.

The police officer keeping watch over the cordon? Probably not an investigator either.

Chief Deputy Abben gave away the reason that LE waited so long to declare it an abduction and it had nothing to do with the lake; in fact, before the lake was drained, he said that LE was already sure the girls weren't in it.

Abben said something to the effect that nothing in the investigation had changed but now they had to read certain people their rights before interviewing them.

For me, that was the aha! moment. Holding off on officially calling it an abduction left LE with the freedom to pretend to a somewhat greater degree of casual-ness and slightly less official-ness. So they waited as long as they plausibly could to declare it an abduction.

GrainneDhu, I agree with all you've said (and never thought the girls were in the lake personally), but I think due to the focus of the media on the lake that's where the community's attention was.

I'm afraid since things were so focused on the lake activity shown in news updates, many people became disheartened. Convinced the girls were in the lake many people probably weren't as alert as they might have been if the lake hadn't played a part. That's how I meant it worked to the perps advantage. (Not that LE wasn't working behind the scenes). LE depends on the community for help, and I hope things weren't missed with the distraction.

Hope that makes sense
- I'm headed to bed~

 

[Aunt B]

The only thing that makes sense to me as far as the bikes *possibly* being staged....would be if the one who did it was somebody who is familiar with investigations...more familiar with missing persons investigations than the general public, that is... that would *know* with certainty exactly the kind of diversion it would cause if the bikes were to be left in a very specific type of location (ie: next to a lake, leaving others to have to entertain the possibility that the girls had ended up in the lake).

I just have a tough time believing that a "civilian" criminal (for lack of a better term - and without being specific as to the type of person I am alluding to) would think of it.

 

[katydid23]

That is exactly what I've been wondering. If the girls were abducted before getting to the lake, there had to have been many better/easier places to leave the bikes that would still point LE to the lake. JMO

I am trying to explore all possibilities, including one in which the girls never went to the lake that day. But it is hard to consider that possibility without also trying to figure out how and why the bikes ended up at the lake.

I think the girls did go to the lake, but I might be wrong. If the girls did not leave those bikes there by themselves, there are a few possible scenarios.

1. Maybe some one came upon the abandoned bikes and went for a 'joy ride' to the lake. Maybe some teens saw the purse and took the bikes for a quick ride to rifle through the purse, looking for $. The perps might have nabbed the girls in town and left the bikes where they fell, and someone else rode them to the lake.

[ I don't think this happened because I think the responsible parties would have come forward by now. jmo]

2. IF the bikes were staged, then I think it had to be by local perps. I think if it were done by the roving kidnappers from out of town, they would not have bothered, nor would they have known where to put them. JMO

3. IF the bikes were staged, then I think it was done for 2 main reasons. One, to deflect attention away from scene of the kidnapping. And if so, then I think it was a place very close to home, where the perps would be identified too easily. So a neighbor, or close family friend might want people to think the girls were down at the lake.
OR maybe an employee at a local hangout, like the mini-mart, or the BigNTall, would want the cops to be focusing on the lake area.

4. Another potential reason, is to gain some time. LE looked at the lake closely for quite awhile. Personally, I don't think they lost anytime, because they did a parallel investigation and the draining of the lake was done by other workers--not the homicide investigators or the FBI.

 

[Sunlight]

The only thing that makes sense to me as far as the bikes *possibly* being staged....would be if the one who did it was somebody who is familiar with investigations...more familiar with missing persons investigations than the general public, that is... that would *know* with certainty exactly the kind of diversion it would cause if the bikes were to be left in a very specific type of location (ie: next to a lake, leaving others to have to entertain the possibility that the girls had ended up in the lake).

I just have a tough time believing that a "civilian" criminal (for lack of a better term - and without being specific as to the type of person I am alluding to) would think of it.

As part of a sting...could be...or do you mean a person with LE background..could be that too...or someone who had already been investigated for kidnapping and knows the ropes...could be that too... MOO

 

[katydid23]

1. It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one.

2. It was a stranger abduction but they needed a diversion. Not so much to buy time, but to redirect the focus. Someone who lives or works close to the house. If the bikes had not been found, how differently would the neighborhood around the house have been treated?

You said it all so succinctly. I just posted the same thing, but in a much more rambling roundabout way. Must be the wine I just opened. lol

 

[SouthernMom]

I'm sorry to see that Elizabeth and Lyric are not home yet. Still praying that they will make it home soon.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Or maybe... ride the mountain bike while pulling the other bike alongside? I wouldn't have even thought about this except I saw a similar scenario earlier today, someone was riding one bike and pedaling down the road holding the other bike. My first thought was the second bike maybe broke somehow and the guy went back to fix it then brought it home. Second thought was maybe the kid fell off and got hurt and the guy went back to get the other bike. Third thought was it was stolen. I can't believe it but I didn't even think about how the bike thing could be related to Elizabeth/Lyric until just a little bit ago.

With that said I truly don't believe the bikes were staged, but I don't have a strong reason for it. It just seems like too much hassle and risk. But in trying to think through the staging scenario a few things came to mind and this was one of them.

Like you, I just don't think the bicycles were staged.

The bicycles could have been moved in the way you described (riding one, rolling the other) but I think that would really stand out.

For staging to work, I think that the abduction scene would have been at least a few blocks away from the lake. Who would bother to stage the bicycles at the lake if the actual abduction scene was right by the lake? The whole point of staging is to draw attention away from the actual abduction site.

So if the bicycles were moved that way, I think there was a much greater chance for someone to see the perp.

Plus... I hate to write this... when I try to put myself into the mind of someone who would grab two girls, what I come up with is a lot of impatience once the first step (control of the girls) was accomplished. I think there would be a huge drive to get the girls to the spot where the perp planned whatever it is that was planned (assault or whatever).

Staging speaks more to patience to me than haste and eagerness.

I honestly think that whoever did this was not particularly afraid of getting caught. They just wouldn't be motivated to put energy into doing something to avert being caught because they would think (apparently correctly) that they would get away with a quick grab.

Fearless plus eager equals no staging, to me.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I think the girls did go to the lake, but I might be wrong. If the girls did not leave those bikes there by themselves, there are a few possible scenarios.

1. Maybe some one came upon the abandoned bikes and went for a 'joy ride' to the lake. Maybe some teens saw the purse and took the bikes for a quick ride to rifle through the purse, looking for $. The perps might have nabbed the girls in town and left the bikes where they fell, and someone else rode them to the lake.

[ I don't think this happened because I think the responsible parties would have come forward by now. jmo]

2. IF the bikes were staged, then I think it had to be by local perps. I think if it were done by the roving kidnappers from out of town, they would not have bothered, nor would they have known where to put them. JMO

3. IF the bikes were staged, then I think it was done for 2 main reasons. One, to deflect attention away from scene of the kidnapping. And if so, then I think it was a place very close to home, where the perps would be identified too easily. So a neighbor, or close family friend might want people to think the girls were down at the lake.
OR maybe an employee at a local hangout, like the mini-mart, or the BigNTall, would want the cops to be focusing on the lake area.

4. Another potential reason, is to gain some time. LE looked at the lake closely for quite awhile. Personally, I don't think they lost anytime, because they did a parallel investigation and the draining of the lake was done by other workers--not the homicide investigators or the FBI.

I believe it was Ollipop (and perhaps others) who mentioned that the bikes could have been found by kids who rode them to the lake and left them there. That makes sense, in a way, because the bikes appear to have been left in a somewhat isolated area of the trail (compared to other areas of the trail).

As for staging the bikes in that area to gain time, I agree with you that LE did not lose any time in their investigation by looking at the lake. It was just a part of their overall investigation, IMO. I doubt any good leads were disregarded or overlooked simply because of the initial focus on the lake.

 

[GrainneDhu]

1. It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one.

2. It was a stranger abduction but they needed a diversion. Not so much to buy time, but to redirect the focus. Someone who lives or works close to the house. If the bikes had not been found, how differently would the neighborhood around the house have been treated?

Not much differently, I think. It's a small town, so it would be possible to search (with permission) every single house. Those who gave consent to a search would get a cursory look and a request to check places like outdoor sheds, storm cellars, things like that.

People who refused to give consent have the right to do so and merely refusing to give consent for a search is not probable cause sufficient to get a search warrant without further evidence. But I'm sure that refusal would cause LE to throw that person's name into the giant suspect pool and do some checking to make sure it didn't pop up in any other part of the investigation.

I seem to recall but do not have a link for it that LE said they'd searched 1/3rd of the town by Saturday morning. I assumed they were probably concentrating on the area around the Collins house, since locals who lived closer to Meyer's Lake report LE did not come to their door.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Like you, I just don't think the bicycles were staged.

The bicycles could have been moved in the way you described (riding one, rolling the other) but I think that would really stand out.

For staging to work, I think that the abduction scene would have been at least a few blocks away from the lake. Who would bother to stage the bicycles at the lake if the actual abduction scene was right by the lake? The whole point of staging is to draw attention away from the actual abduction site.

So if the bicycles were moved that way, I think there was a much greater chance for someone to see the perp.

Plus... I hate to write this... when I try to put myself into the mind of someone who would grab two girls, what I come up with is a lot of impatience once the first step (control of the girls) was accomplished. I think there would be a huge drive to get the girls to the spot where the perp planned whatever it is that was planned (assault or whatever).

Staging speaks more to patience to me than haste and eagerness.

I honestly think that whoever did this was not particularly afraid of getting caught. They just wouldn't be motivated to put energy into doing something to avert being caught because they would think (apparently correctly) that they would get away with a quick grab.

Fearless plus eager equals no staging, to me.

You have stated exactly why I think the bikes weren't staged. Thank you for being much better at explaining it than me!!

 

[SouthernMom]

Staging speaks more to patience to me than haste and eagerness.

I honestly think that whoever did this was not particularly afraid of getting caught. They just wouldn't be motivated to put energy into doing something to avert being caught because they would think (apparently correctly) that they would get away with a quick grab.

Fearless plus eager equals no staging, to me.

ITA, sadly.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Grr I am trying to post a very interesting link in which I'm not sure has been shared n it won't post. I will copy n paste article

If the link comes up with asterisks in the domain name area, that means it's forbidden for WS. I think pasting from a forbidden site would fall under the same rule.

If you go to the bottom of the page, you can find out who the moderators for this forum are and pick one to PM with a question about whether or how to post such a link.

 

[Sunlight]

If the link comes up with asterisks in the domain name area, that means it's forbidden for WS. I think pasting from a forbidden site would fall under the same rule.

If you go to the bottom of the page, you can find out who the moderators for this forum are and pick one to PM with a question about whether or how to post such a link.

Nevermind... MOO

 

[hollyblue]

Does anyone know if lyric has Skype? most who have fb connect all their friends to Skype.And then perps can find you. My daughter had a guy somehow add him self to her Skype list. She deleted him as he was not talking"clean". But after this film my daughter is well aware.

Oh heavens, I just watched it. Did you guys let your kids watch that?
Not judging, just curious about your input. Not to mention I am one that was never fond of horror films.

I know times have changed, and I thought I was a pizzer at 13/14, but I never cussed those words or talked about sex like that. Geez Louise. If I had a teenage...I'd truly not know what I'd decide about their social media use after that. I wish I would have watched it earlier and not late at night. I don't how you guys with teens keep your sanity.

 

[katydid23]

OKAY---is that a true story, about little relatives, <modsnip>, being taken by their father, just a month or os before the girls went missing? Anyone know if it is for real?

 

[RavenTrue]

Wrote this long heartfelt post only to get kicked off...home network, ISP I guess.
Jist of it was: am wrenched by the amount of drug addict parents that children just go 'missing' and never found.

Can name Haleigh Cummings, Haley Dunn, and these babies to name just 3 cases. Shows me that you can get away with murder. Debts? We'll harm your child/ren. No matter. These cases are all the same: if they talk it will be worse. <modsnip> So...children are inconsenquential in the big scheme whether it be parents or family. Grandmas and Pas are going to protect their own naer do well kin. Thought being...their STILL KINFOLK. So, even if they know something is hinky and could solve--they will not.

So why haven't any of these cases been solved? Hate to say it--<modsnip>. That's JMO.

Really makes me sad about the truth of it.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Oh heavens, I just watched it. Did you guys let your kids watch that?
Not judging, just curious about your input. Not to mention I am one that was never fond of horror films.

I know times have changed, and I thought I was a pizzer at 13/14, but I never cussed those words or talked about sex like that. Geez Louise. If I had a teenage...I'd truly not know what I'd decide about their social media use after that. I wish I would have watched it earlier and not late at night. I don't how you guys with teens keep your sanity.

Keep in mind that the movie is fictional and pulls together elements similar to a bunch of different abductions plus some stuff straight out of the writer's imagination.

In my opinion, it could be classified as a horror mockumentary and probably an attempt to cash in on the Blair Witch Project.

 

[RavenTrue]

You said it all so succinctly. I just posted the same thing, but in a much more rambling roundabout way. Must be the wine I just opened. lol

Feel the same: it could be

a) drug addicted parents out of prison
b) payback for something due to same..children are LESS charges than drugs if a 3 time loser

Have seen sooo many times here than you CAN get away with murder: Haleigh Cummings, Haley Dunn, these babies (1 of innocent family, but must take both) "Families" have huge drug history, and then their children just disappear!?

Yet LE cannot find within this network of naer do wells????

Forgive me Mother O, but if your family has more to lose than not due to drugs, deals you CAN get away with murder. How many times now?

 

[nikb]

Just for the heck of it and because a lot of us have been 'talking' about this for a long time, I thought I'd put out some of the big questions in my mind and my thoughts. the ones we're allowed to discuss here. Please feel free to share your thoughts too. I don't know that any of it gets anyone closer to finding the girls. I wish it did...

Below is all MOO and completely speculation based on what I've read and seen here and in MSM. The major questions to me other than the who/what/why/when/where/how, in my mind and specific to this case:

- Did the girls know their abductor(s)? I believe that they did/do. Maybe not well, but I think they know him/her/them somehow.

- Were the bikes staged? I don't think so. Too much hassle and risk of being seen. Seems easier to ditch them somewhere - the lake (IN it not next to it), a dumpster, etc.

- Are the girls alive? I sure hope so. I strongly feel that they are for some reason.

- Was it the girls on the surveillance tape? I'm not convinced it's them but I believe it is their bikes at least, based on the location and different size of the bikes. I think it was the girls too, but it's hard to tell.

- Was someone else on the surveillance tape? Yes I strongly believe there was at least one more person. I have no opinion or thoughts on whether the person had anything to do with the girls being missing, but I've looked at the video a ton of times and I definitely see one person or shadow before the girls ride by and another one after. The more I look at it I don't think it was shadows of the girls, especially given the time was around noon and the location of the sun.

- Did Mr. C. see the girls while he was watering his lawn? I think so, but I also think he could've mixed up days if he saw them often. I think he'd remember seeing both of them as opposed to just Elizabeth though, so IMO it's likely he saw them.

- Did the girls go to the lake? I think so. And I think they'd done it before and 'gotten away with it' even though they weren't supposed to go that far. I strongly doubt they went swimming though.

- Did Mr. G. see the bikes while riding? I think so. I'm not so convinced on the time. I completely understand using the cell phone to pinpoint a time but I find it odd that 3 days later you'd think "Oh I saw those bikes 7 minutes before I called this person." Wouldn't it be "5 minutes," "10 minutes" or "15 minutes"? I don't think that he was involved whatsoever I just think the time is probably off.

- Were the bikes moved? Maybe but I really don't think so. If so I think it was done by the girls, not someone else. I honestly think the bike location was just interpreted differently on a couple of different occasions. "Across the path" vs. "up against the fence, in the way, on a narrow path" isn't a big stretch.

- Was a paddleboat involved? I do think one was out on the lake at the time, but whether they saw the girls I don't have a strong feeling about either way. I can see it being a lure, but I don't really think it was.

- Did the guy running at the lake really see the girls at around 2:30? Maybe.. but I can also see someone just being 'overly helpful' and trying to calm down a freaked out family member by saying "I think I saw them" and that family member wanting so desperately to believe the girls were just there a few minutes before...

- What about the "little boy" fishing? I believe he didn't see the girls, but there is something about him being there and not seeing them that freaks me out. I hope with all my heart he wasn't involved, which is to say I hope he wasn't another victim.

- Has the area been thoroughly searched? I believe yes and no. It seems to me like LE had specific places they wanted to focus on. I assume for good reasons.

- Why drain the lake? As many have suggested maybe more as a diversion, for the public and maybe the perp also. I originally thought the girls were in the lake. I thought Lyric was showing off her new backflip trick and things went wrong. But after hearing how nasty that lake would be to swim in, I think they just rode near/around it but didn't swim there.

ALL of the above is IMO, MOO, etc.

And in case anyone needs a little chuckle:

- Was it a PADDLE boat or a PEDAL boat?

- What about the WHITE VAN?

------------------

Back to being serious, the most important question: when will these precious girls be home?

 

[RavenTrue]

I saw his profile before I read anything about the news on him. It bothers me greatly that his profile looked ordinary to me and I was shocked to see the associated news item. Good lord. .

I made contact. <modsnip>.

No wonder he wishes to meet many, just sayin'