IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[FrayedKnot]

It boils down to this - either you think TG is being untruthful OR

You believe that he saw them AROUND 12.20, like he said.

As he has no reason to lie that I can see, I'm assuming he didn't...he saw the bikes.

Or, like me, you think he saw SOME bikes, loosely around the time stated, and thought mentioning it might be helpful to police.

In any case, I believe the girls were abducted elsewhere, probably right off the street, and their bikes dumped off at the lake quickly and without a great deal of planning, in an attempt to make it appear as if the girls either drowned or were taken from the lake.

I mean honestly if TG was the only person to have reported the bikes, assuming they were the girls, it must not have been a very populated place that day. Those access roads look like a quick "pull in, dump stuff, drive off" point.

JMHO. But it's another way to look at TG's position.

 

[SapphireSteel]

You bring up a point I hadn't thought about too much - what were the girls doing before going to the lake.

IMO, they were killing time before meeting someone at the lake. (There, I've said it and finally committed myself to a theory!)

This also depends on timing.

Grandma originally said she had not seen the girls since 11.30.

This then changed when the cctv came out, and she said she last saw them at 12.15.

What if the girls had already nearly arrived home at say, 12.13, and something made them turn around and rush to the lake?

 

[iamnotagolem]

Yes but why that spot and what about the scent dogs tracking them to spots close to area . I mean why not just leave them by the pump house thing. Easier

We do not know that the dogs tracked the girls there, IIRC Tammy is the only one that has suggested this, there has been no information confirming her opinion of what the dogs did by LE or any official spokesperson.

I'm not sold on the idea that the bikes were staged, I think it is possible, but I try to keep my mind open and take all things into consideration, the more the details are discussed the more I understand.

Onto some random thoughts...l

Honestly, I wish I could interview everyone, I have a lot of unanswered questions. I'm not wanting these answered in the forum, they are just questions I'd like truthful, honest answers to.

1. Had the girls really biked to the lake before? HC and WC say no, TB says yes, no comment from MCM that I remember.

2. Who/what else was captured on CCTV?

3. Where were Lyric & cousin when they were late days earlier? How late were they? Who was watching them at the time?

4. Were the bikes laying or standing when the fire fighter found them?

5. Did TG ride his bike to the lake from home or did he drive there then ride his bike around? Was his usual biking time during the middle of the day?

6. Was there anyone on Lyrics friend list on FB whom she didn't know or her parents/guardians didn't know?

7. Did either of the girls have crushes on an older boy in the neighborhood or community?

 

[SapphireSteel]

Or, like me, you think he saw SOME bikes, loosely around the time stated, and thought mentioning it might be helpful to police.

In any case, I believe the girls were abducted elsewhere, probably right off the street, and their bikes dumped off at the lake quickly and without a great deal of planning, in an attempt to make it appear as if the girls either drowned or were taken from the lake.

I mean honestly if TG was the only person to have reported the bikes, assuming they were the girls, it must not have been a very populated place that day. Those access roads look like a quick "pull in, dump stuff, drive off" point.

JMHO. But it's another way to look at TG's position.

I would agree with you on this as being likely, but for one thing -

the dogs.

They SEEM to imply, to me at least, those girls were at that lake that morning.

 

[Marilynilpa]

It's probably in the same place as the link where LE confirms the tip from the swerving cyclist. Neither exists. The only tip the FBI have confirmed is that a person that regularly runs on the trail did see the bikes and was able to provide an accurate time.

I've been assuming this was a misstatement by the FBI in referring to TG, referring to him as a runner rather than biker. JMO

 

[FrayedKnot]

The only problem I continue to have with this theory is, why drop the bikes off at the lake when they could have been left anywhere, certainly somewhere more accessible than the lake trail.:waitasec:

Why drop off the bikes at all? Either leave them where the girls were abducted, or put them in the vehicle and dump the bikes later. Why take the time, after abducting two girls, to drive to the lake and discard the bikes?

That is why I have a hard time with the staged bikes theory. JMO

Well, it wasn't very elaborate staging, more of a dumping, IMO.

And maybe the perp uses the vehicle for work and also lives with someone? He would have to get rid of the bikes and bag.

If he is local, he knows the lake pretty well. He pulls in, drops them off and leaves. And since this was a crime of opportunity, it wasn't well-thought out, so there are no clothes or shoes left on the water's edge, but he WAS still attempting to make it look as if they drowned.

And to be fair, LE did spend alot of time and energy on that lake. And we are still rehashing timelines and bike positions, so IF it was staging, it kinda worked.

 

[SapphireSteel]

We do not know that the dogs tracked the girls there, IIRC Tammy is the only one that has suggested this, there has been no information confirming her opinion of what the dogs did by LE or any official spokesperson.

I'm not sold on the idea that the bikes were staged, I think it is possible, but I try to keep my mind open and take all things into consideration, the more the details are discussed the more I understand.

Onto some random thoughts...l

Honestly, I wish I could interview everyone, I have a lot of unanswered questions. I'm not wanting these answered in the forum, they are just questions I'd like truthful, honest answers to.

1. Had the girls really biked to the lake before? HC and WC say no, TB says yes, no comment from MCM that I remember.

2. Who/what else was captured on CCTV?

3. Where were Lyric & cousin when they were late days earlier? How late were they? Who was watching them at the time?

4. Were the bikes laying or standing when the fire fighter found them?

5. Did TG ride his bike to the lake from home or did he drive there then ride his bike around? Was his usual biking time during the middle of the day?

6. Was there anyone on Lyrics friend list on FB whom she didn't know or her parents/guardians didn't know?

7. Did either of the girls have crushes on an older boy in the neighborhood or community?

On the dogs -

GRACE: Jim Spellman, CNN correspondent joining me there at Meyers Lake. Boom (ph). Jim, I want to go over what you just said. You told me that scent dogs have been brought in and they were smelling the little girls` clothing and shoes? Did I hear that?

SPELLMAN: That`s right, Nancy, out of the girls` shoes. Family members were lined up so that the dogs could eliminate their scent. They then followed the scent from where the girls` bikes were found. And we know that the dogs went not too far, but into a wooded area at the end, the terminus, of this bike path. And that`s as far as we know that the dogs got.

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ng.01.html

 

[SapphireSteel]

I've been assuming this was a misstatement by the FBI in referring to TG, referring to him as a runner rather than biker. JMO

Me too.

What convinces me is the strong language used by Tammy Breault, FBI -

“There was a gentleman who regularly runs around the lake. He didn’t see either one of the girls ... but he did see their bikes and he was able to pinpoint the time of the day that he saw the bikes. Small details like this are really important to the investigation,” she said.

Pinpoint implies, confirmation.

 

[FrayedKnot]

I would agree with you on this as being likely, but for one thing -

the dogs.

They SEEM to imply, to me at least, those girls were at that lake that morning.

See, the dogs thing makes my head spin. I have to look back but I thought one dogspert said that they could have picked up the scent left from the previous day, and another said they may have picked it up from the belongings?

I just don't know enough about dogs and their complexity to speak to that, but IIRC, there wasn't a definitive answer as to what the dogs' hit actually signified.

But like I said- that subject confuses me!!!

 

[nikb]

In case it helps: http://globegazette.com/news/iowa/e...cle_7dbadcc0-cfd1-11e1-b097-001a4bcf887a.html

Ted Gamerdinger of Waterloo said he rides the trail often.

“I saw the bikes laying on the path and had to swerve to miss them,” Gamerdinger said. He then went to the Evansdale Police Department to report the sighting.

Still trying to find the one about Mr. Pahl and the time stamp.

 

[cindysue]

You bring up a point I hadn't thought about too much - what were the girls doing before going to the lake.

IMO, they were killing time before meeting someone at the lake. (There, I've said it and finally committed myself to a theory!)

ETA: If the girls were going to meet someone, I don't think this would have been set up via Facebook because LE/FBI have the computers and would easily be able to determine who Lyric had been communicating with. And I don't believe Elizabeth had a FB page. JMO

I think this makes sense as a theory, but then we have to figure out when the predator had opportunity to set up the meeting .could it have been someone she meet a few days earlier when she was late coming home, I know it was in the next town, but the perp would drive and have a few days to make a plan. If they had been going to the lake talking to people on a reg basis, they could have befriended a perp earlier too

 

[SapphireSteel]

See, the dogs thing makes my head spin. I have to look back but I thought one dogspert said that they could have picked up the scent left from the previous day, and another said they may have picked it up from the belongings?

I just don't know enough about dogs and their complexity to speak to that, but IIRC, there wasn't a definitive answer as to what the dogs' hit actually signified.

But like I said- that subject confuses me!!!

I believe this was very well planned.

I have actually considered that the perp may have had the foresight to drag the girls footwear/clothing across the scene merely to distract and mislead.

It's not impossible.

 

[SouthernMom]

Follow my thinking here -
Ignore the clocks for one second, let's say they're all wrong and the FBI knows it, but they have blurred/hidden this fact for the sake of the investigation.
Taking our own personal attempts at synchronising clocks out, what do you have left?

IF we only consider the facts, then...
two girls went missing somewhere between 12 and 4 pm. A camera near the last seen location captured the images of the two girls biking. A witness saw the girls biking on a street between the last seen location and the location where the bikes were found. One witness saw bikes on the trail sometime after the girls were last seen and the time the bikes were found.

Not much information. FWIW, any of the sources could be mistaken or off by about 10 or 15 minutes and not necessarily be lying.

Also, IMHO, I also think that TG happened on the scene either as the abduction was happening or immediately after. Also, I think that if he had happened on the scene a little earlier, there would have been another crime that happened on the bike path that day. I don't think he would have survived an encounter with the perp.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I think this makes sense as a theory, but then we have to figure out when the predator had opportunity to set up the meeting .could it have been someone she meet a few days earlier when she was late coming home, I know it was in the next town, but the perp would drive and have a few days to make a plan. If they had been going to the lake talking to people on a reg basis, they could have befriended a perp earlier too

I think the perp could have set up the meeting that day. The girls were riding their bikes for 45 minutes before the CCTV. They could have seen a truck and trailer with horses in it, kids love horses. The perp could have said, if you meet me down by the lake, I'll unload the horses and let you take them for a ride. The girls race to the lake, jump off their bikes and run to the truck and trailer and into the hands of the perp.

 

[Marilynilpa]

See, the dogs thing makes my head spin. I have to look back but I thought one dogspert said that they could have picked up the scent left from the previous day, and another said they may have picked it up from the belongings?

I just don't know enough about dogs and their complexity to speak to that, but IIRC, there wasn't a definitive answer as to what the dogs' hit actually signified.

But like I said- that subject confuses me!!!

"FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault said the reaction from the dogs on Monday night indicated a 'strong possibility' the girls had been at the lake, less than a mile from their grandmother's house where they were last seen on Friday.

However, Breault said because there were no confirmed sightings at the lake, authorities could not be certain."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...TH-day-search-cousins-vanished-bike-ride.html

I know I've seen other references to the dogs in MSM, but IIRC those were statements by the family.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I think the perp could have set up the meeting that day. The girls were riding their bikes for 45 minutes before the CCTV. They could have seen a truck and trailer with horses in it, kids love horses. The perp could have said, if you meet me down by the lake, I'll unload the horses and let you take them for a ride. The girls race to the lake, jump off their bikes and run to the truck and trailer and into the hands of the perp.

I like the way you think. There are a number of scenarios I can come up with that are similar. I do think this was a pre-arranged meeting, but obviously that is just my opinion based on how I interpret what little confirmed info we have.

 

[cindersoot]

I like the way you think. There are a number of scenarios I can come up with that are similar. I do think this was a pre-arranged meeting, but obviously that is just my opinion based on how I interpret what little confirmed info we have.

First the boat, then cocoa, now horses?:truce:

 

[Marilynilpa]

It's probably in the same place as the link where LE confirms the tip from the swerving cyclist. Neither exists. The only tip the FBI have confirmed is that a person that regularly runs on the trail did see the bikes and was able to provide an accurate time.

Are you willing to at least accept the possibility that the FBI made a mistake in referring to a runner rather than a biker? Not trying to be snarky at all, by the way, just curious. Because I've been assuming all along it was just a misstatement, but maybe I've been looking at it wrong.

 

[Bootsctr]

Mr G never ever said he saw the bikes at exactly 12.20.

He said he saw them AROUND 12.20.

I agree the timeline is tight but it absolutely fits...like OJ's glove.

Yes, I think the timeline fits too. Interestingly, this article from MSM, if true, tightens the timeline of when someone saw the girls riding their bikes.

...an Evansdale resident who lives only blocks from the lake, said he saw the girls riding their bikes on Friday afternoon between 12 and 1 p.m. when he was outside watering his yard.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-iowa-girls-fbi-dogs-detect-cousins-scents/story?id=16798151&page=2

 

[iamnotagolem]

First the boat, then cocoa, now horses?:truce:

What is your opinion, if you don't mind sharing? We are just throwing around ideas and picking and choosing from theories to see what fits the best.