IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[nikb]

Actually I couldn't get it - they've already got the August 27 issue on the shelves. Yes, we now live in a world where the August 20 issue of a magazine is obsolete on August 16.

We had a ridiculous heatwave here in July. Day after day in the 100 degree range. Even if that day was only 80, each person has their own lower limit to when they might feel they should have a glass of V8 waiting for them, so its probably meaningless to read too much into it. (By the way: what? They poured it and then left it on the counter for later? Do people do that?) Oops, just broke my own rule.

How I wish LE would just give us a hint.

Wow you guys are quick on switching to the new week! Here they usually mail the new one to arrive on Thursday for subscribers and it's in the stores by late Friday/early Saturday. Yes, I know way too much about the topic of the mag's timing and distribution - I was following another story awhile back and found all this out. I actually have an extra copy of the 8/20 People if someone wants it and wants to PM me. I'm hoping either People posts the article soon or I can scan and share it - I'm waiting to hear back from the mods.

Re: the juice, I know, I thought that was weird too. But after reading and thinking about it more, maybe the girls were planning on a very short ride then coming back to drink the juice? Or maybe they like it more room temp than "fridge cold"? Yeah, a hint would be nice.

 

[Aunt B]

I'm with you, I really don't believe they were staged, but trying to keep my mind open to the possibilities as it sounds like you are. IF they were staged yes I would think the person was smart enough to wear gloves. I think they could have potentially been wearing biking gloves without it looking out of place. Yes the fingertips are still exposed, but if someone was cautious they could probably move the bikes without touching it with their fingertips.

Or... if there are prints, the person is someone familiar to the girls whose prints wouldn't be out of place on the bikes. (please note I am not sleuthing anyone or thinking of anyone in particular with this statement, it's just a thought)

All very true.

Also...theoretically...prints could also be explained away by saying, "Oh, well I saw the bikes on the path and moved them out of the way".

 

[otto]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1067763/

Recreational bike riding. An injury study showed the average speed of children 13 years or younger was 8.9 mph. These children were not in accidents, it was a study done to see what the average mph was for various ages.

Thank you for finding that information. The girls had to travel 1.5 miles. Based on 9 miles per hour ...

9/60 miles/minute = 4.5/30 = 2.25/15 = 1.125/7.5. That's 1.1 miles in 7.5 minutes.

The girls would have had to be riding faster than the average 13 & under years of age child to make the 1.5 trip in 8 minutes.

It seems that they would have had to be riding at about 11.25 miles per hour, even though one was on a BMX and the other is somewhat heavier than the average 4'11", 10 year old child ... to make the trip in 8 minutes ... and we still need a little more time for them to get off the bike and vanish on the shore side of the double gate.

Let's give them two minutes to vanish ... that means 1.5/6 miles/minute or 15 miles per hour. That's quite a bit faster than the average 13 year old child and we haven't even looked at intersections yet.

 

[otto]

BBM

See, this is exactly what makes me wonder if they were ever at the lake. Why if they were almost home when they were suppose to be would they go all the way back down to the lake? I could understand racing around the block a few more times, but why go all the way down to the lake?

I'm just going to say it. . .statistically speaking they were likely abducted near the house.

One thing that I have learned by being to this rodeo a few times is that when LE shows us surveillance tape of the last time the victims were seen, it is usually shortly before their disappearance. If it wasn't it makes sense that they would have been caught on tape again. . .or seen. In this case, the girls didn't loop around the block and ride past the camera again. . .something happened. They were either abducted or they rode directly to the lake. I would like to hear from a local if it is possible that they rode to the lake without being caught on any other surveillance camera. Also what is the likelihood that more people haven't come forward to say they saw the girls riding towards the lake?

All MOO

Interesting point ... so you're saying that maybe they rode in circles, like the grandmother said, for 30 or 40 minutes and suddenly it stopped ... then their bikes were found at an isolated part of the lake. That may be why police speculated about staged bikes ... thinking that they were grabbed at the end of the block.

 

[Sunlight]

Interesting point ... so you're saying that maybe they rode in circles, like the grandmother said, for 30 or 40 minutes and suddenly it stopped ... then their bikes were found at an isolated part of the lake. That may be why police speculated about staged bikes ... thinking that they were grabbed at the end of the block.

That certainly is a possibility, but again it leads to the why not just leave the area with the girls and the bikes so there's no chance of evidence. Staging the bikes is awfully risky for the average perp...it would seem to have to be a situation where a) someone knew the area really well, and b) that they were perhaps staging an entire abduction for some reason. MOO

 

[hambirg]

If we look at the statement from the camera owner, the author of 8 minutes, the girls not only need to ride 1.5 miles, but they need to drop their bikes and vanish. Personally, I'm not seeing where the 8 minutes came from.

He said that his camera, which recorded the girls at 12:11, is 8 minutes slow and in the same article, we read that the cyclist saw the bikes, but no children, at 12:20. According to my calculations, that leaves one minute, not eight.

12:19 to 12:27. . .8 minutes.

I'll let the rest of you speculate why that is significant.

 

[hambirg]

Interesting point ... so you're saying that maybe they rode in circles, like the grandmother said, for 30 or 40 minutes and suddenly it stopped ... then their bikes were found at an isolated part of the lake. That may be why police speculated about staged bikes ... thinking that they were grabbed at the end of the block.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

 

[otto]

I know the horse thing was just thrown in with a list of other bait items like puppies, but I think everyone should explore that notion on their own and surf away from WS for a few minutes to see if it makes them think a certain way. I have and it has changed my thinking entirely.

What did you come up with ... what do you mean?

 

[otto]

I agree, and have no idea where they got the info, probably family? Early reports that have now changed? I do remember hearing about V8 before, and the 3:40 time sounded familiar too but now I can't find anything about that time other than the People article. It's so hard to say.

There were a number of things in the article that were like that, not exactly "wrong" but just kind of off a bit from what we've heard before. I wouldn't doubt the reporter added to the story to make it flow better ("two cold glasses of V8 Splash <snip> at the ready for when they worked up a sweat" is more exciting than "the girls usually stopped to get a drink."). I don't think the things that were 'off' were super important in terms of finding the girls, other than the article not including the tip-line number. It is confusing for those of us who've been analyzing what feels like every single detail of this case though.

I'm still very glad for the publicity and the fact that somehow they managed to get 2 pages in such a widely distributed magazine.

The first time that was given regarding locating the bikes was 3:40. That was quickly changed to 3:58 ... which was probably the official recorded time. I haven't read the People article, so if it said 3:40 bike discovery, that's true. I posted the link in the last two days.

 

[MNDad]

12:19 to 12:27. . .8 minutes.

I'll let the rest of you speculate why that is significant.

12:27 was the reported time that the TG call was made to his daughter. Not the time of the sighting. The sighting was estimated to be 12:20 by guessing the elapsed time before the call. Otto's 1 minute math seems correct to me, which of course is impossible.

 

[otto]

Actually I couldn't get it - they've already got the August 27 issue on the shelves. Yes, we now live in a world where the August 20 issue of a magazine is obsolete on August 16.

We had a ridiculous heatwave here in July. Day after day in the 100 degree range. Even if that day was only 80, each person has their own lower limit to when they might feel they should have a glass of V8 waiting for them, so its probably meaningless to read too much into it. (By the way: what? They poured it and then left it on the counter for later? Do people do that?) Oops, just broke my own rule.

How I wish LE would just give us a hint.

I could understand that they poured it, had a quick drink, and then left it on the counter for later. Children do that all the time ... quick sips and get back to playing. Pour it, not drink it, and an adult not saying something about that ... different families, different habits, or an omission/embellishment by the reporter.

 

[MNDad]

What did you come up with ... what do you mean?

I actually wish I could say but I cannot say here. Besides it isn't based on anything but a gut reaction to possible coincidence between one of the suggested potential bait items and something I saw and remembered. All I can say is that if you snooped around the personal social profiles of all the people that have been discussed here (of course not sleuthing them and just learning the players), you would find a picture of this possible item that could hypothetically be used as bait.

 

[otto]

Wow you guys are quick on switching to the new week! Here they usually mail the new one to arrive on Thursday for subscribers and it's in the stores by late Friday/early Saturday. Yes, I know way too much about the topic of the mag's timing and distribution - I was following another story awhile back and found all this out. I actually have an extra copy of the 8/20 People if someone wants it and wants to PM me. I'm hoping either People posts the article soon or I can scan and share it - I'm waiting to hear back from the mods.

Re: the juice, I know, I thought that was weird too. But after reading and thinking about it more, maybe the girls were planning on a very short ride then coming back to drink the juice? Or maybe they like it more room temp than "fridge cold"? Yeah, a hint would be nice.

I think they're just sold out because it has a local story. People Mag probably wants to hook people so they have to get something on the shelves right away, but they're not going to reprint the magazine ... just a guess.

 

[Jules71]

If the cctv is slow by 8 minutes and the correct time was 12:19
AND
TG's sighting of the bikes was 12:20
Then either it was not the girls on that video
OR
it was different bikes at the lake.

The same bikes in the video could not end up at the lake in one minute even if driven and dumped.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[otto]

All very true.

Also...theoretically...prints could also be explained away by saying, "Oh, well I saw the bikes on the path and moved them out of the way".

If someone was going to go to the trouble of staging bikes, I think we can be sure that person remembered his gloves. No way is someone going to carry bikes barehanded after abducting the owners.

 

[hambirg]

12:27 was the reported time that the TG call was made to his daughter. Not the time of the sighting. The sighting was estimated to be 12:20 by guessing the elapsed time before the call. Otto's 1 minute math seems correct to me, which of course is impossible.

I think you are missing my point.

The girls were caught on cctv at 12:19.

LE and FBI are discussing an eight minute window while watching the cctv tape.

What is the eight minute window from when they were caught on tape? 12:19 to 12:27.

Why would LE be interested in that window of time?. . .the time between when the girls were last seen on tape and the time that someone who says they saw the bikes and made a verifiable phone call. . .after he saw the bikes, went to the bathroom and then called his daughter?

 

[MNDad]

I think you are missing my point.

The girls were caught on cctv at 12:19.

LE and FBI are discussing an eight minute window while watching the cctv tape.

What is the eight minute window from when they were caught on tape? 12:19 to 12:27.

Why would LE be interested in that window of time?. . .the time between when the girls were last seen on tape and the time that someone who says they saw the bikes and made a verifiable phone call. . .after he saw the bikes, went to the bathroom and then called his daughter?

I don't know but I suspect they suspect the same thing that I do which I am not allowed to say. What I can say is that if they suspect the same thing that I do, I am at a loss why they have not acted on it, so I am probably wrong about LE and myself suspecting the same thing; otherwise, we wouldn't all still be talking about this.

 

[otto]

That certainly is a possibility, but again it leads to the why not just leave the area with the girls and the bikes so there's no chance of evidence. Staging the bikes is awfully risky for the average perp...it would seem to have to be a situation where a) someone knew the area really well, and b) that they were perhaps staging an entire abduction for some reason. MOO

Didn't the grandmother say right at the beginning that the children were riding in circles and she checked on them through the window ... I wasn't sure what that meant, but assumed in circles in front of the house. If riding in circles means riding around the block, then ... that wouldn't be around Lafayette ... that would be around the other block ... or was that riding up and down Brovan in and around the buildings?

 

[Marilynilpa]

I don't know but I suspect they suspect the same thing that I do which I am not allowed to say. What I can say is that if they suspect the same thing that I do, I am at a loss why they have not acted on it, so I am probably wrong about LE and myself suspecting the same thing; otherwise, we wouldn't all still be talking about this.

You guys are making me look at things a little differently, which is good. But if the situation is as you speculate, why did the FBI claim that the girls are still alive? Do you think your unnamed suspect is holding them somewhere, or do you think they are dead?

 

[Jules71]

If the cctv is slow by 8 minutes and the correct time was 12:19
AND
TG's sighting of the bikes was 12:20
Then either it was not the girls on that video
OR
it was different bikes at the lake.

The same bikes in the video could not end up at the lake in one minute even if driven and dumped.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

Quoting myself because I thought of another possibly... the video owner is wrong about the time being off.

Even so G'ma said she last saw the girls at 12:15. TG saw the bikes at the lake at 12:20. I don't see the girls getting to the lake and disappearing in 5 minutes.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2